JLL analyses the impact of a 'hard Brexit' on London house prices using Oxford Economics data

London, 25th October 2016. Felicity Young, +44 (0)20 7087 5108

Using Oxford Economics data based on a hard Brexit, JLL analyses the forecasted average house price gain in each London borough from 2016 – 2030 to show the winners over the medium-long term.

The data shows that even if you take a relatively conservative view, you can still double your investment in the long run. We can then provide comment to support the findings.

JLL Residential Research Associate Director Nick Whitten says: "Oxford Economics' forecasts are based on what now looks to be the likely "hard" Brexit scenario where the UK would leave the EU single market altogether and revert to World Trade Organisation rules.

"Within the confines of this scenario, Oxford Economics predicts the potential to double the value of a home in some parts of London by 2030.

"Particularly strong predicted areas of growth can be found to the east of the Capital with Waltham Forest and Newham leading the way.

"The east of London is expected to be a significant driver in terms of the future economic growth of London driven by the rise of the likes of Silicon Roundabout in Old Street, the Queen Elizabeth Olympic Park and the new Crossrail east-west commuter railway."

Whitten concludes: "JLL figures show that house price growth in London over the past 35 years has averaged 8% per annum through a period that included three recessions. While Oxford Economics’ forecasts represent a slight cooling of that price growth, they should still provide confidence that UK housing represents a sound long term investment with forecasted annual growth rates of between 4% and 7% pa depending on the borough.

"House purchases should invariably be viewed as a long game as opposed to the chance to make a quick buck."
Oxford Economics house price growth forecasts, 2016-2030

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