Research at JLL

UK Residential Forecasts – The Supply Conundrum

A new Government will take office for a five year term from 2015, but what will this mean for the UK housing market? We believe that the next five years will be one of the most crucial for the UK housing market in a generation. The big question is whether we will be any further forward in solving the country’s housing supply crisis.

Housing market drivers

Many factors will determine the path and strength of the UK housing market over the next five years. We highlight the key influences which range from a strong and relatively stable domestic economy to problems in China and possible contagion through to affordability and borrowing constraints and Government initiatives.

Fundamentally, however, we believe that a strong UK economy will prove the solid bedrock from which the housing market can move forward. Improved employment and wage conditions, together with a more prosperous and secure outlook, will instil greater confidence in household finances. This will lead to more people buying their first home as well as encouraging existing homeowners to move up the property ladder.

There will be headwinds, with affordability proving a dampening influence on both price growth and transactions, while China and emerging country problems provide an external threat to the otherwise steady UK economic prognosis.
UK House Price Growth Forecast
UK Housing Transactions
England Housing Completions

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