Markets still appear to be on the side of the doves, expecting a further reduction in the bank rate next month, but recent announcements on the UK economy have muddied the waters.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1752846331/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-July18-Chart1.png" />Inflation, which came in a little hotter than many had expected in June, could trouble the MPC. CPI rose 3.6 per cent, with the three f&rsquo;s: fuel, flights and food all contributing. Yet despite inflation rising, GDP, jobs and wage growth all fell
 back in the latest numbers. Growth in UK GDP, which had shown some promise in Q1 fell for the second consecutive month in May, down 0.1 per cent, following a -0.3 per cent reading in April. Real GDP is still expected to have grown 0.5 per cent in
 the three months to May, albeit much of this is down to a stronger Q1. But the outlook for UK GDP has improved marginally this year, with consensus forecasts expecting 1 per cent growth this year, up from 0.8 per cent in 2024. Wage growth dropped back in the latest figures, with average earnings excluding bonuses 5 per cent higher in the three months to May compared with the same period a year earlier. This was lower than the 5.3 per cent recorded in April. The ONS Labour Force
 Survey, which I&rsquo;d approach with caution due to low participation rates at present, showed unemployment rose to 4.7 per cent in the three months to May, up from 4.6 per cent a month earlier.Fallout from the rise in employers&rsquo; national insurance, combined with ongoing uncertainty around tariffs and the health of the global economy has seen the number of payrolled staff fall in May, with a 25,000 reduction in May versus April. Yet this
 is lower than previous estimates of more than a 100,000 drop. The latest major announcement was the loss of 500 jobs at Jaguar Land Rover, which posted an 11 per cent reduction in quarterly sales following the pausing of US exports. Early estimates suggest we could see a further reduction in June, with the number of payrolled staff expected to be 178,000 lower in June this year than last, or a reduction of 0.6 per cent. This follows a fall in job vacancies for the 36th consecutive month, albeit setting aside pandemic disruptions, we remain at or above long run norms.News from Mansion HouseIn her annual speech to business leaders at Mansion House, the Chancellor&rsquo;s key theme was loosening regulation to turbocharge growth. Much of the emphasis was around supporting our ailing IPO sector and encouraging investment in the UK stock market
 rather than cash ISAs, albeit not as previously trailed limiting the cash ISA allowance (yet).&nbsp;<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1752846331/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-July18-Chart2.png" />For the housing market, there was some loosening agreed too. Income thresholds for those applying for certain first-time buyer mortgages will be lowered and more mortgages will be available at over 4.5 times income. A move which is expected to provide
 up to 36,000 additional mortgages to first-time buyers in its first year. In addition, a new mortgage guarantee scheme has been confirmed to ensure the ongoing availability of loans at 90 and 95 per cent loan-to-value to assist prospective buyers
 with lower deposits. &nbsp; Where have all the flats gone?There was some encouraging news in the latest S&amp;P Purchasing Managers Index. While overall construction activity remained in contractionary territory housebuilding moved into growth territory for the first time since September 2024. But an increase in activity, which will be welcomed by a government sticking steadfastly to their 1.5 million homes target, is not evident in our cities. Ongoing viability challenges, particularly around &lsquo;High Risk&rsquo; buildings &ndash; those
 at 18 metres or seven storeys high &ndash; and increasing frustrations with the Gateway process and the Building Safety Regulator mean activity is falling.Figures from Molior London show there were fewer than 2,200 private homes started across London in H1 2025, the equivalent of fewer than 5% of the 44,000 private homes target. In the second quarter of 2025, 23 London Boroughs saw no schemes of 20 or more
 private homes start.&nbsp;<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1752846331/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-July18-Chart3.png" />But 2025 figures follow recent trends, with activity across London dropping back since the peak in 2015. Analysis of new homes sales shows that there have been 7,500 more sales than starts in the last five years, with the number of homes under construction across Greater London falling by a third in the last five years. This will have implication for future completions, with Molior London expecting fewer than 10,000 private homes will complete in 2027 and 2028 combined. JLL ResearchJLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare and student housing. <h5>Disclaimer: &copy; 2025 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.</h5>

Residential Roundup - 18 July

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As has become customary, anticipation is building in the run-up to the 7 August meeting of the Bank of England&rsquo;s Monetary Policy Committee.

As has become customary, anticipation is building in the run-up to the 7 August meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee.

As has become customary, anticipation is building in the run-up to the 7 August meeting of the Bank of England&rsquo;s Monetary Policy Committee.

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Zoopla is reporting sales agreed in the four weeks to mid-June are up 6 per cent annually, but stock levels continue to rise more quickly than demand, meaning increases in activity are not driving significant price rises.House prices Nationwide's house price index shows prices dipped 0.8 per cent in June compared with May, meaning annual growth in prices dropped back from 3.5 per cent in May to 2.1 per cent last month. Expect to see annual averages increase a little in the coming
 months as the market continues to settle.Zoopla reported asking prices rose 1.4 per cent annually in May, with stock on the market up 14 per cent year-on-year. This outpaced new buyer demand, rising by 7 per cent over the same period. Higher value markets saw the most marked increase in stock
 for sale, with activity at the top end of the market more sluggish than at the lower end. Prices in areas where house prices average under &pound;200k rose 2.7 per cent compared with falls of 0.7 per cent in areas where prices top &pound;500k.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1751631279/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-July4-Chart1.png" />Market activity Mortgage approvals numbers began to recover in May, rising 3.9 per cent month-on-month on a slow April and 3 per cent higher than May 2024. But these numbers point to a steady rise in activity rather than a significant uptick. Average rates paid on new
 loans fell in May to 4.47 per cent with sub-4 per cent rates now available for both two- and five-year fixes for those with higher deposits. Forecasters are still anticipating up to two further rate cuts this year, taking the bank rate to 3.75% by
 the year end, but uncertainty around swap rates means that we are not expecting to see further significant falls in best buy rates in the near term.Following a slow post-SDLT April, transactions recovered in May. Seasonally adjusted figures show there were 25 per cent more sales in May than April, but volumes remained 12 per cent lower than the May figure a year ago.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1751631279/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-July4-Chart2.png" />What does this mean for our outlook? The time taken to sell a home (from listing to completion) now exceeds 200 days according to research by TwentyEA. This means homeowners listing their homes today would be expected to pick up the keys to their new home in late January 2026.As well as increasing the likelihood of a sale falling through &ndash; time is often the killer of deals - this means that prices achieved on completion for homes in 2025 will largely reflect offers already accepted by vendors. As a result, even if we see a pick-up in activity later in the year, with more competitive mortgage rates and improved buyer confidence increasing activity, this uptick will be reflected in the 2026 rather than 2025 stats.Our forecasts for this year, made back in November, were for a gradual recovery in prices, aided by more competitive mortgage rates and political certainty following a Labour majority at the General Election. While the benefits of a strong majority have been tested in recent weeks and the outlook for the UK economy remains underwhelming, the housing market continues to follow a path of slow but steady recovery.Despite the stamp duty changes muddying the waters more recently, we are leaving our current forecasts for 3.5 per cent annual growth in UK prices in 2025 unchanged. Similarly, our expectations that higher value markets would lag in 2025 are still evident in the latest house price data, meaning we still expect that price growth in London will be more modest, rising by 2.5 per cent in 2025.A different story in Central London The only market where we are revising our 2025 forecast is Central London. Ongoing uncertainty around government plans to tax (or not) non-doms on their global assets means fewer prospective buyers at the top end of the market this summer. Here at JLL we've seen 8 per cent fewer new applicants registering with our offices in Q2 this year versus last, with LonRes data showing the numbers of sales so far this year at &pound;5million or more are down 14 per cent and &pound;10million plus sales down 20 per cent.Sold prices (excluding new homes) fell 3.9 per cent annually across Prime Central London in Q2 2025, meaning our expectations for 3 per cent growth by the year end is increasingly unlikely. Additional tax liabilities for overseas buyers and those buying additional properties from April, alongside ongoing uncertainty around the non-dom regime, are all impacting buyer appetite. A U-turn on the exposure of non-doms' global assets to UK inheritance tax could help, but many will be waiting for further clarity before making their decision to stay, go or relocate. In the meantime, buyers remain cautious and stock levels in the second-hand market, up 13 per cent annually, are outstripping demand.Relative scarcity of stock in the new homes market in central London means we are not seeing any notable reduction in prices, but activity remains skewed towards owner-occupiers and needs-based purchasers rather than investors, with sales volumes lower than historic norms.We expect some markets - particularly those neighbourhoods more reliant upon high-net-worth overseas buyers - will see prices end the year lower than they started, but others could see small single digit annual increases this year. This means overall we expect prices to be flat in 2025, with growth of 2 per cent forecast in 2026.The slowdown in rental growth experienced across most UK markets is following the path we forecast in November, so we'll be maintaining our current forecast for growth nationally of 3.0 per cent in 2025.JLL ResearchJLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare and student housing. Disclaimer: &copy; 2025 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.

Residential Roundup - 4 July

Three months on from the March stamp duty deadline and the housing market is gradually emerging from the SDLT fog. Zoopla is reporting sales agreed in the four weeks to mid-June are up 6 per cent annually, but stock levels continue to rise more quickly than demand, meaning increases in activity are not driving significant price rises.

Three months on from the March stamp duty deadline and the housing market is gradually emerging from the SDLT fog. 

Three months on from the March stamp duty deadline and the housing market is gradually emerging from the SDLT fog.

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<a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1750311984/RRB_JLL_updates_Chinese_April_2025.pdf" target="_blank"><button class="Button primary">Download Mandarin Version (点击获取中文版)</button></a>
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The Renters&rsquo; Rights Bill (RRB) proposes significant reform within the private rental sector. The bill itself has been making fast progress through Parliament, having already passed through the House of Commons. It is now widely expected to come
 into effect from this spring onwards.&nbsp; Whilst the bill contains added flexibility to tenants, Landlords retain much needed protection around possession and annual rental increases. The bill is intended to even the balance and is expected to encourage greater long-term security for both Tenants
 and Landlords. Key parts of the bill include;<ul><li>The abolishment of Section 21 notices, and the ending of Assured Shorthold Tenancies (ASTs).</li></ul><ul><li>Tenancies to become periodic by default, and Tenants can serve 2 months&rsquo; notice at any time. </li></ul><ul><li>Rent payment/collection limited to one month in advance.</li></ul><ul><li>Rent increases to be restricted to once per year (twelve months from previous increase) via a Section 13 notice.</li></ul><ul><li>Tenants can challenge rent increases deemed above market via the First Tier Tribunal.</li></ul><ul><li>Rent agreed cannot be higher than the advertised property price. <s></s></li></ul><ul><li>Tenants have the right to request a pet and that request cannot be unreasonably refused. </li></ul><ul><li>Landlords will be prohibited from discriminating against tenants who receive benefits or have children residing with them or visiting their premises.</li></ul><ul><li>Awaab&rsquo;s Law will apply to the Private Rented Sector (PRS) rather than in social housing only. </li></ul><ul><li>Decent Homes Standard will also apply to the PRS. </li></ul><ul><li>There will be a requirement for Landlords to sign up to a Landlord Redress Scheme as well as a PRS database. </li></ul><ul><li>A written tenancy agreement will need to be provided to all Tenants.
 As your trusted letting agent, JLL are already taking steps to prepare for this upcoming change and have successfully guided thousands of clients through previous legislative changes, most recently the Tenant Fees Act (2019). We will work with
 you, endeavouring to ensure that your needs are met and minimise any concerns following the introduction of the upcoming changes. <s>&nbsp;</s>Below is the current timeline and summary of key changes that are expected to take effect. We have also answered some of the key questions that our clients and partners have been asking.&nbsp;</li></ul><div style="text-align:center;"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1750783186/resi/gb/Articles/Images/RRB_-_progression_chart_-_Jun.png" />&nbsp;</div><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1750783032/resi/gb/Articles/PDFs/RRB_JLL_updates_Jun_Chinese.pdf" target="_blank"><button class="Button primary">Download Mandarin Version (点击获取中文版)</button></a>
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<h2></h2><h2>WILL IT AFFECT ALL RENTAL PROPERTIES?</h2>The vast majority yes. Most Landlords rent to individuals and receive a rent of under &pound;100,000 per year making their tenancy an Assured Shorthold (AST), so these changes will apply to most Landlords in England. Landlords renting to company Tenants
 or receiving rent exceeding &pound;100,000 per year will continue to be exempt as the bill will not apply to company or contractual (Non AST) tenancies.<h2>WHEN WILL THIS TAKE EFFECT?</h2>Once the bill passes into law, it will apply to new and existing tenancies, defaulting fixed term tenancies to periodic immediately. It should be noted that existing tenancies with clauses for future rent increases and/or break clauses will no longer
 apply as the new legislation takes precedent.<h2>HOW LONG CAN MY TENANT(S) STAY IN MY PROPERTY?</h2>As above, leases will no longer have a fixed end date and will roll over indefinitely until a valid notice is served by Landlord or a Tenant. Tenants will have a minimum twelve month protected period.<h2>WHAT HAPPENS IF I NEED MY PROPERTY BACK?</h2>Current Section 21 notices will no longer exist and will be replaced by an existing (evidence based) Section 8 notice framework. Landlords needing to sell or move themselves or their immediate family into a property, can do so under a newly extended notice
 period of four months, which cannot be served until eight months after a Tenant takes occupancy, guaranteeing them one year minimum. Landlords must be prepared, and able, to provide evidence of their need for possession and will be prohibited from
 marketing their property for rent for twelve months from the date the notice expires. These requirements are to ensure notices remain legitimate. How such evidence might be called on or presented remains unclear at this time.<h2>BREAKCLAUSES IN GENERAL</h2>Tenants will be able to give Landlords two months&rsquo; notice at any point once they have moved in. Whilst not ideal the cost, time, and effort of moving home means few Tenants would have any interest relocating and would be expected to remain much
 as they do now, moving only when circumstance require change so Landlords should not be too concerned here.&nbsp; Outside of Landlords wishing to sell or move in, Landlords will be permitted to serve notice should their Tenant breach their rental contract. A list of notices covering breaches can be <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/guide-to-the-renters-rights-bill/82ffc7fb-64b0-4af5-a72e-c24701a5f12a">viewed here</a>.<h2>RENTAL PAYMENTS AND ARREARS</h2>All rent will be payable monthly only. All advance payments will be prohibited. JLLs due diligence and processes ensure 97% of all JLL client rental monies are received within three working days of due date and 99.8% paid within 30 days of any due date.Tenant arrears of three months will enable Landlords to serve four weeks&rsquo; notice. <h2>WHAT ABOUT STUDENTS AND OVERSEAS TENANTS?</h2>The same applies. Despite it being widely accepted that the student market is higher risk, there is no exemption in the bill at present. Landlords are advised to consider rent protection insurance policies or guarantors to offset any risk.<h2>ADVERTISING AND INCREASING RENTS</h2>When marketing, Landlords will no longer be able to accept a rental offer or bid that exceeds the advertised property price.Landlords will be able to propose market rent increases annually using a Section 13 notice, providing two months&rsquo; notice to Tenants. Tenants may challenge the increase via the First-Tier Tribunal Service (FTT), if they feel it exceeds market value.The FTT are unable to increase rent beyond the Landlords proposed amount but may rule the same amount (or lower) to determine an impartial market valuation. The increased rent will take affect from the date of the ruling (or a following date set by the
 FTT, typically the next due date). Crucially, it will not be backdated to the Section 13 expiry date. How long a ruling will take is not clear, but reports suggest it could be up to six months. There are concerns this may encourage Tenants
 to challenge increases. Fair market linked increases will reduce Tenants challenging annual increases. <h2>PETS</h2>Landlords can no longer reasonably refuse pets but can require Tenants to acquire appropriate pet insurance. A Landlords superior lease that prohibits pets might be considered a reasonable reason to refuse for example. &nbsp;<h2>PENALTIES AND FINES</h2>Up to &pound;7,000 for first time offences and &pound;40,000 for more serious and repeat non-compliance.&nbsp;&nbsp;

Renters Rights Bill Update – June 2025

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The Renters&rsquo; Rights Bill (RRB) proposes significant reform within the private rental sector. The bill itself has been making fast progress through Parliament, having already passed through the House of Commons. It is now widely expected to come into effect from this&nbsp;spring onwards.&nbsp;

The Renters’ Rights Bill (RRB) proposes significant reform within the private rental sector. The bill itself has been making fast progress through Parliament, having already passed through the House of Commons. 

https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1728056777/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Renters-Rights-Bill-Update.jpg

This wasn&rsquo;t unexpected, with the impact of higher energy costs alongside annual increases in council tax and rail fares contributing to the 3.5 per cent rise.
The optimist&rsquo;s view is that this could be short lived though, with Ofgem announcing a 7 per cent reduction in the energy price cap between July and September this year, compared to a 6 per cent rise in the three months to June.&nbsp;
Higher than expected CPI figures follow news that the UK economy grew by 0.7 per cent in Q1 2025, above the 0.6 per cent forecast and 0.1 per cent recorded in Q4 2024. But policy change, both domestically and internationally, means the path for the remainder
 of 2025 is far from clear, with the impact of employer NI and tariffs still to play out in the GDP figures in the coming months.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1748531146/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-May30-Chart1.jpg" />
Housing market
The post-stamp duty change hangover appears to have been short lived, with the latest figures from Zoopla showing the number of sales agreed in May at their highest level for four years and up 6% on 2024. Sellers are returning to the market too, with
 new listings up 6% and stock on the market 13% higher than at the same point a year ago. 
The latest ONS figures for March show average UK house prices rose 6.4 per cent annually to &pound;271,000, equating to a &pound;16,000 increase on March 2024. First time buyer prices rose 7.1 per cent, outpacing growth for home movers (5.4 per cent).
 Although it is worth noting the impact of the 1 April stamp duty change on these figures. 
For rents, the ONS Private Rents Index showed an annual increase in rents of 7.4 per cent in the 12 months to April 2025. This is down from 7.7 per cent in March but continues to remain elevated compared with new let indicators, with April figures from
 Homelet up just 0.3 per cent annually.&nbsp;
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1748531146/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-May30-Chart2.jpg" />
Time to rethink incentives? 
The government has made clear commitments to building more homes and improving the quality and efficiency of our existing housing stock. However, the responsibility for building this stock lies predominantly with housebuilders, who have responsibilities
 to their shareholders and need to ensure there is a market for any homes they deliver. Whether that be for open market sale, investment, or sales to affordable housing providers. 
The cost to improve existing stock also lies (a few government subsidies aside) with property owners. Whether that be housing associations or other social housing providers, who need to improve stock without any demonstrable increase in rents, or owners
 in the private sector.
The government has clear ambitions to achieve a blanket EPC C+ rating for the private rented sector and social housing, but if we are serious about encouraging and rewarding improvements, we&rsquo;ll need to rethink how we approach this going forward.

New homes are already a step ahead, with 97% of new homes delivered having an EPC of C or above, with 86% rated A or B in Q1 2025.&nbsp; This compares with 6% EPC A or B and 52% EPC C for existing homes. 
To encourage purchasers to buy new and more energy efficient homes, or to reward homeowners for investing in improving the energy efficiency of their homes should we be offering Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) incentives to encourage activity and improvements?
Cutting SDLT by 50% for A or B rated properties, and by 25% for those rated C could provide a clear incentive for buyers and rewards sellers too. Those bringing homes to market at EPC C or above may be more likely to attract buyers due to lower running
 costs and reduced purchase costs. 
What difference could this make? 
If implemented, a first-time buyer purchasing a home at &pound;500,000 could save &pound;5,000 buying an EPC A or B rated home, with home-movers paying &pound;7,500, compared with &pound;15,000 for a home rated D or below. Perhaps a harder sell for government
 would be applying this to investors too, but if we are looking to improve the quality and efficiency of our rental stock offering the same reduction in SDLT would further encourage the purchase of more efficient homes. An investor buying a &pound;500,000
 EPC A or B rated property would still be paying four times the SDLT of a first-time buyer, but saving &pound;20,000 compared with an EPC D home.&nbsp;
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1748531146/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-May30-Chart3.jpg" />
But what about the black hole? 
We understand that discussions on tax breaks at a time when government finances are increasingly stretched could be challenging.&nbsp; However, even if stamp duty take per property fell, more activity means the difference between overall receipts may
 not be as significant. Indeed, encouraging activity in the housing market brings in far more revenue than SDLT alone, providing a boost for the wider economy as well as helping to deliver more better-quality homes. We&rsquo;ll hopefully know more
 following the June Spending Review, but in the meantime, we hope that the Government are considering demand and as well as supply when thinking about how to deliver more homes.
JLL Research
JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare
 and student housing. 
Disclaimer: &copy; 2025 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as
 to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any
 means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right
 to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.

Residential Roundup - 30 May

UK inflation, which had been coming in below forecast earlier this year, spiked according to the latest April figures.

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This wasn&rsquo;t unexpected, with the impact of higher energy costs alongside annual increases in council tax and rail fares contributing to the 3.5 per cent rise.The optimist&rsquo;s view is that this could be short lived though, with Ofgem announcing a 7 per cent reduction in the energy price cap between July and September this year, compared to a 6 per cent rise in the three months to June.&nbsp;Higher than expected CPI figures follow news that the UK economy grew by 0.7 per cent in Q1 2025, above the 0.6 per cent forecast and 0.1 per cent recorded in Q4 2024. But policy change, both domestically and internationally, means the path for the remainder
 of 2025 is far from clear, with the impact of employer NI and tariffs still to play out in the GDP figures in the coming months.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1748531146/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-May30-Chart1.jpg" />Housing marketThe post-stamp duty change hangover appears to have been short lived, with the latest figures from Zoopla showing the number of sales agreed in May at their highest level for four years and up 6% on 2024. Sellers are returning to the market too, with
 new listings up 6% and stock on the market 13% higher than at the same point a year ago. The latest ONS figures for March show average UK house prices rose 6.4 per cent annually to &pound;271,000, equating to a &pound;16,000 increase on March 2024. First time buyer prices rose 7.1 per cent, outpacing growth for home movers (5.4 per cent).
 Although it is worth noting the impact of the 1 April stamp duty change on these figures. For rents, the ONS Private Rents Index showed an annual increase in rents of 7.4 per cent in the 12 months to April 2025. This is down from 7.7 per cent in March but continues to remain elevated compared with new let indicators, with April figures from
 Homelet up just 0.3 per cent annually.&nbsp;<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1748531146/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-May30-Chart2.jpg" />Time to rethink incentives? The government has made clear commitments to building more homes and improving the quality and efficiency of our existing housing stock. However, the responsibility for building this stock lies predominantly with housebuilders, who have responsibilities
 to their shareholders and need to ensure there is a market for any homes they deliver. Whether that be for open market sale, investment, or sales to affordable housing providers. The cost to improve existing stock also lies (a few government subsidies aside) with property owners. Whether that be housing associations or other social housing providers, who need to improve stock without any demonstrable increase in rents, or owners
 in the private sector.The government has clear ambitions to achieve a blanket EPC C+ rating for the private rented sector and social housing, but if we are serious about encouraging and rewarding improvements, we&rsquo;ll need to rethink how we approach this going forward.
 New homes are already a step ahead, with 97% of new homes delivered having an EPC of C or above, with 86% rated A or B in Q1 2025.&nbsp; This compares with 6% EPC A or B and 52% EPC C for existing homes. To encourage purchasers to buy new and more energy efficient homes, or to reward homeowners for investing in improving the energy efficiency of their homes should we be offering Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) incentives to encourage activity and improvements?Cutting SDLT by 50% for A or B rated properties, and by 25% for those rated C could provide a clear incentive for buyers and rewards sellers too. Those bringing homes to market at EPC C or above may be more likely to attract buyers due to lower running
 costs and reduced purchase costs. What difference could this make? If implemented, a first-time buyer purchasing a home at &pound;500,000 could save &pound;5,000 buying an EPC A or B rated home, with home-movers paying &pound;7,500, compared with &pound;15,000 for a home rated D or below. Perhaps a harder sell for government
 would be applying this to investors too, but if we are looking to improve the quality and efficiency of our rental stock offering the same reduction in SDLT would further encourage the purchase of more efficient homes. An investor buying a &pound;500,000
 EPC A or B rated property would still be paying four times the SDLT of a first-time buyer, but saving &pound;20,000 compared with an EPC D home.&nbsp;<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1748531146/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-May30-Chart3.jpg" />But what about the black hole? We understand that discussions on tax breaks at a time when government finances are increasingly stretched could be challenging.&nbsp; However, even if stamp duty take per property fell, more activity means the difference between overall receipts may not be as significant. Indeed, encouraging activity in the housing market brings in far more revenue than SDLT alone, providing a boost for the wider economy as well as helping to deliver more better-quality homes. We&rsquo;ll hopefully know more following the June Spending Review, but in the meantime, we hope that the Government are considering demand and as well as supply when thinking about how to deliver more homes.JLL ResearchJLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare and student housing. Disclaimer: &copy; 2025 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.

Discover the latest market insights from Marcus Dixon in this week's Residential Roundup

UK inflation, which had been coming in below forecast earlier this year, spiked according to the latest April figures.

The negative reaction to the tariffs rippled through the money markets. Trillions of dollars were wiped off the value of global stocks, but news of a pause saw the markets breathe a sigh of relief, with single-day gains of 9.5 per cent for the S&amp;P
 500 and 12 per cent for the tech-heavy Nasdaq, although worth noting still not back to their pre-'Liberation Day' highs. Similar rebounds occurred across the Asian markets, and closer to home, the FTSE 100 rose 6 per cent, but remains 5 per cent lower
 than on 1 April.The pausing of variable tariffs arguably has less of a direct impact on the UK, as in essence we are in the same position here as we were before 9 April. The UK's more passive approach over the last week should curry favour with the White House, with
 much pinned on the potential for further negotiations in the coming days and weeks. But arguably some of the UK's 'advantage' in being a lower tariff trading partner could be watered down; we'll need to see how negotiations pan out. What does this all mean for the UK economy and housing market? There was better news on the state of the UK economy in February, with monthly GDP growth of 0.5 per cent, up from 0 per cent in January. But economically February seems a long time ago, with the wider impact of tariffs, employer NI and increases in utility
 bills and council tax all likely to impact GDP figures in the coming months.US tariffs, whatever numbers are eventually settled on, are likely to have a negative impact on growth for economies outside the US &ndash; and possibly for the US too. Inflation rates outside the US could drop back as exports become more expensive and
 goods previously destined for the US find their way to more tariff-friendly shores. Whatever happens, the &pound;9.9bn headroom from the Spring Statement looks set to be challenged, meaning further tweaks to taxation could be on the cards at the next
 fiscal event in the autumn. But as the last seven days have proven, a week is a long time in politics (and economics), so we'll need to wait and see what the ramifications are for the UK in the longer term.Mortgage rates dropTariff-induced uncertainty has impacted bond yields and the interbank lending rate, with two-year swaps at their lowest level since Liz Truss was in No.10. This means forecasters now expect the Monetary Policy Committee could reduce the bank rate up to
 four times this year, up from a consensus forecast of just two rate cuts back in March.Mortgage lenders have reacted, with Barclays, TSB, and Coventry Building Society amongst others cutting rates by more than 25 bps, with best-buy two and five-year fixed rates now available at sub 4%. This could prove positive for the UK government too,
 with lower debt servicing costs if rates fall more quickly than anticipated.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1743090226/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Apr11-Chart1.jpg" />Housing marketIn the short term at least, it is likely that the 1 April Stamp Duty deadline will have contributed more to the Q2 outlook for the housing market than tariffs. Figures from the Nationwide suggest house prices were 3.9 per cent higher in March than they
 were a year earlier, with growth flat compared with February. Halifax were a little more downbeat, with prices down 0.5 per cent month-on-month and up 2.8 per cent annually.The latest survey from the RICS released this week remained gloomy. New buyer demand dropped back in March, with a net balance of -32 per cent of respondents reporting a drop in new buyer demand, down from -16 per cent the previous month.As is often the case following an increase in Stamp Duty costs, expectations on activity in the short term remain subdued, with more respondents (a net balance of -18 per cent) expecting fewer agreed sales in Q2.More agents reported an increase in stock reaching the market, but this had also dropped back, with a net balance of +6 per cent in March compared with an average of +17 per cent average over the last six months. This is all impacting the short-term outlook
 for prices, with a higher proportion of agents expecting prices will fall over the next three months. But looking at the next 12 months, some positivity remains, with +39 per cent of respondents expecting prices would be higher in 12 months' time.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1743090226/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Apr11-Chart2.jpg" />Rental marketThe outlook was more positive for the rental market. Tenant demand is increasing as we move into the Spring, with the March RICS survey reporting a net balance of +20 per cent of agents who had seen tenant demand rise in Q1, with expectations on rental increases also remaining in positive territory at a net balance of +31 per cent. Stock levels remain constrained, with a net balance of 24 per cent of agents reporting a drop in new landlord instructions. Homelet data shows average UK rents for new lets rose to &pound;1,288 per month in March, up 1 per cent on February. Average rents on new lets were 2.0 per cent higher in London and 3.5 per cent higher in the rest of the UK on an annual basis.JLL ResearchJLL is a leading global professional services firm specialising in real estate and investment management, with $16.6bn annual revenue in 2020, operations in over 80 countries and a global workforce of over 90,000.&nbsp; With over 7,000 employees and 15 offices in the UK, we support our investor, developer, and occupier clients at every stage of the property lifecycle across both commercial and residential asset classes. This includes land purchase, access to capital, planning, development advisory, leasing, building management and sales. JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare and student housing. Disclaimer: &copy; 2025 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.

Residential Roundup - 11 April

News that the first Universal theme park in Europe would be built in Bedfordshire was not the biggest roller coaster announcement this week. That accolade was reserved for Trump's tariffs.

News that the first Universal theme park in Europe would be built in Bedfordshire was not the biggest roller coaster announcement this week. That accolade was reserved for Trump's tariffs. At the time of writing (an important caveat right now), the US has announced a 90-day 'pause' on implementing variable tariffs on all countries bar China.

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There was better news beyond 2025, with the OBR upgrading their outlook for GDP growth from 2026 onwards, averaging 1.75 per cent per annum from 2026 to 2029. Fiscal headroom is expected to be restored to just shy of &pound;10bn by 2029/30, albeit still
 tight in historic terms, leaving the door open for further tax hikes, or at the very least tweaks, later in the year.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1743090226/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Mar27-Chart.jpg" />Inflation comes in below expectation at 2.8 per centIn what must have been welcome news for Labour&rsquo;s front bench the latest inflation figures, released on the day of the Spring Statement, showed CPI dipping below 3 per cent to a lower than forecast 2.8 per cent in February. Core inflation (the measure
 which strips out food and energy) also defied expectations as it dropped back from 3.7 per cent in January to 3.5 per cent. The OBR forecast that inflation will be higher than it previously expected this year, with 2025 CPI now expected to average 3.25 per cent, 60bps higher than the October forecast &ndash; a result of higher than anticipated rises in the cost of energy and
 food.
The jury is still out on what this means for the next meeting of the MPC &ndash; remember they chose to hold rates at the last one &ndash; but we expect that a further two to three 25bps cuts could still be on the cards in 2025. Housing as a driver of growthThere were more namechecks for housing than we&rsquo;d expected in the Spring Statement, cementing housebuilding&rsquo;s role in Labour&rsquo;s growth plans. We were already aware of some of the government&rsquo;s announcements, including an additional
 slug of funds for affordable housing and money to support recruitment and training for the under-resourced construction sector, but the OBR view on the impact of planning reform made for interesting reading, too. Building the construction workforce (&pound;600m)Combining government ambitions to build more homes with the considerable work underway to retrofit UK housing stock and rectify building safety has left the UK construction workforce stretched, before we even consider the significant increase in activity
 needed to get close to the Government&rsquo;s 1.5 million homes target. But our construction workforce is ageing and set to shrink further at a time when demand is rising. To stem this Rachel Reeves has announced a &pound;600m investment in training the construction workers of the future. This investment is intended to provide 60,000 additional construction workers by 2029. The creation of a new Constructions Skills Mission
 Board will be set up to oversee the plans, with funds also being allocated for 10 new technical colleges and &pound;165m earmarked for existing colleges to enable them to deliver more construction courses. More money for affordable housing (&pound;2bn)<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1743177166/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Mar27-Chart3.jpg" />A &pound;2bn top up for affordable housing was announced pre-Spring Statement. The money is earmarked to provide an additional 18,000 affordable and social homes, equating to just over &pound;111,000 per property. The &pound;2bn follows two recent top
 ups totalling &pound;800m and is intended to provide a bridge between the 2021-2026 Affordable Housing Programme and the new grant funding scheme set to be announced at the spending review in June. Touching distance of 1.5 million homes&hellip;The OBR report provided some punchy forecasts for housing delivery, albeit coming with some degree of uncertainty and a fair few caveats. Revisions to the National Planning Policy Framework is expected to permanently increase the level of real GDP by
 0.2 per cent by 2029/30 and boost housebuilding by 170,000 homes over the next five years. OBR forecasts five-year UK-wide net additions ranging from 1.2 million (its low scenario) to 1.3 million (its high). Although worth noting this not only falls short of the 1.5 million target, but also that the target (1.5m) applies to England only. With
 England accounting for around 85% of UK net additions this suggests we could see between 1 million and 1.1 million homes delivered against the 1.5 million target. More work needs to be done to unlock housebuilding, and while planning reform is part of that solution we&rsquo;re holding out (and calling) for more demand side stimulus at the Spending Review in June. JLL ResearchJLL is a leading global professional services firm specialising in real estate and investment management, with $16.6bn annual revenue in 2020, operations in over 80 countries and a global workforce of over 90,000.&nbsp; With over 7,000 employees and 15
 offices in the UK, we support our investor, developer, and occupier clients at every stage of the property lifecycle across both commercial and residential asset classes. This includes land purchase, access to capital, planning, development advisory,
 leasing, building management and sales. JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare
 and student housing. Disclaimer: &copy; 2025 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as
 to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any
 means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right
 to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.

Residential Roundup - 27 March

Entering government Rachel Reeves committed to just one fiscal event a year. Yet in the run up to this Spring Statement it felt more like a mini budget as we braced for the Office for Budget Responsibility end-of-term report on the UK economy.&nbsp;

Entering government Rachel Reeves committed to just one fiscal event a year. Yet in the run up to this Spring Statement it felt more like a mini budget as we braced for the Office for Budget Responsibility end-of-term report on the UK economy. 

Entering government Rachel Reeves committed to just one fiscal event a year. Yet in the run up to this Spring Statement it felt more like a mini budget (hopefully not like the last one) as we braced for the Office for Budget Responsibility end-of-term report on the UK economy.&nbsp;Conditions are looking a little gloomier, at least in the short term. The outlook for UK GDP growth was cut from 2 per cent to 1 per cent for 2025. But the OBR had until now been more bullish on UK GDP than many other forecasters, with the consensus forecast on 2025 GDP growth sitting at 1.1 per cent pre-statement, closer to the revised OBR view.

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<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1741365078/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Mar7-Chart1.jpg" />TransactionsThe SDLT rush is evident in transactions figures, with just over 95,000 homes changing hands in January across the UK, 14% higher than the same month a year earlier. This is the highest January figure since 2022 and marginally up on the 10-year January
 average. House pricesThe impact on house prices is less clear cut. Figures from the Nationwide index show house prices rose 3.9% in the year to February 2025, up 0.4 percentage points month-on-month. The Halifax index shows a marginal slowing in February, with prices down
 0.1% monthly and up 2.9% annually. But we could see the rate of growth fall a little in March. More first-time buyers, who are generally purchasing smaller (and often less expensive) homes, means we could see the overall average fall in March and
 potentially rise in April &ndash; as a result it remains prudent to not place too much emphasis on monthly fluctuations in prices this spring.Mortgage approvals The pre-SDLT rush was evident earlier in the mortgage stats, with the time taken to complete a sale meaning those wanting to beat the deadline would need to have been well progressed by early 2025. In late 2024 we saw annual increases in net mortgage
 lending almost 50% higher than they were a year earlier. True, 2023 wasn&rsquo;t a busy year, but the acceleration in activity was particularly evident in Q4.&nbsp; Lower rates helped, but first-time buyers were busy with their brokers too. The latest
 numbers from the Bank of England show mortgage approvals rose 19% annually in January 2025, with UK Finance showing a 16.4% annual increase in loans to first-time buyers in Q3 2024.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1741365078/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Mar7-Chart2.jpg" />The death of leasehold?Commonhold isn&rsquo;t new; it was introduced back in 2004 as part of the Commonhold and Leasehold Reform Act 2002, but most new developments completed since continued to adopt a leasehold ownership structure. This looks set to change, with the Government publishing a White Paper proposing replacing leasehold with commonhold for new flatted developments (the sale of new leasehold houses has already been stopped). A consultation on how this could be introduced is set to take place in the coming months. Under a commonhold ownership structure, homeowners would effectively own the freehold of their individual unit, with the freehold of the building held by the building&rsquo;s commonhold association. Each owner would be a member of their building&rsquo;s commonhold association and would be expected to contribute to overall maintenance and running costs, similar to a leasehold service charge. No ground rent would be payable. Plans are afoot, too, to make it simpler for existing owners of leasehold properties to convert to commonhold, although this is a more challenging prospect than imposing the new structure on new build homes. Big Six The latest data from Zoopla shows annual rental growth fell from 3.9% in Q4 2024 to 3.0% in their latest Q1 release. The lowest level for more than three years, it follows a significant increase in rents over that period. This &lsquo;normalisation&rsquo; in the rental market has been evident for some time. Stock levels per agent have risen from recent lows but are still down on pre-pandemic norms. There are still 12 enquiries for every rental home according to Zoopla, with the number of homes to rent per agent averaging 13 in February 2025, up from a low of 10 in 2023, but still below the longer run average of 16 between 2017 and 2021. Our recently released JLL Big Six Residential Development Report shows a similar trend.&nbsp; The report tracks changes in prices and rents across mainstream and prime developments in six cities outside London: Birmingham, Bristol, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Leeds and Manchester.Average annual rental growth across the Big Six stands at 4.2%. New stock coming to the market continues to demand higher rents, however more balance between supply and demand has meant average growth returning to single digits in all six cities.Interest rates have remained higher than expected and continue to impact development viability and buyers&rsquo; budgets through higher mortgage rates. Average prices for new build apartments have risen 2.1% across the Big Six. Markets with lower average prices, notably Birmingham and Glasgow, have seen the highest price growth.After a sharp slowdown in the first half of 2024, the Big Six build-to-rent market had its most active second half since 2021, bringing full-year investment to &pound;1bn. Though reflecting a 12% year-on-year decline, it was a strong finish to 2024.To read the latest JLL Big Six report <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/insights/research/big-six-residential-development-report-winter-2024-25">click here.</a>Build-to-rent and UK livingIt is not just the Big Six where build-to-rent activity rose at the back end of 2024. With &pound;5.4bn invested nationally in 2024, BTR activity was up 9% on 2023. Across all sectors of UK living investment rose 5% year-on-year to &pound;13.9bn. There were more than 230 deals completed in 2024, 16% above the five-year average.An uncertain outlook for build and debt costs contributed to drop in forward funding deals, falling 26% below the five-year average, the lowest level since 2018. At the same time, forward purchases and investments in standing stock rose 31%. Domestic investors led the pack, with 44% of total living investment originated in the UK.To read more on our outlook for UK living in 2025 <a href="https://www.jll.co.uk/en/trends-and-insights/research/living-outlook-market-dynamics">click here.</a>

Residential Roundup - 7 March

The clock is ticking for those looking to take advantage of stamp duty savings before rates revert to previous levels on 1 April. First-time buyers have the biggest incentive, particularly those purchasing more expensive homes.

The clock is ticking for those looking to take advantage of stamp duty savings before rates revert to previous levels on 1 April. First-time buyers have the biggest incentive, particularly those purchasing more expensive homes. The threshold at which first-time buyers no longer benefit from relief drops from &pound;625,000 to &pound;500,000, with the nil rate dropping from &pound;425,000 to &pound;300,000. This means someone purchasing a &pound;500,000 first home would see their stamp duty bill increase from &pound;3,750 in March to &pound;10,000 in April.&nbsp;

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The &pound;300m injection is forecast to deliver 2,800 homes (equating to roughly &pound;107,000 per home), but recent analysis of the housing waiting list shows the number of households on the list topped 1.33 million at last count (March 2024), up 43,000
 in 12 months. Meaning that to build the 43,000 homes required just to keep the list at 2023 levels would have required &pound;4.6 billion in funding at &pound;107,000 a home. If we look to tackle the 1.33 million households on the waiting list it
 would take 21 years at current affordable housing delivery rates to build enough homes, before we even consider new entrants over that period.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1739544753/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Feb14-Chart1.jpg" />Fiscal headroom disappearingThe outlook for the UK economy has become more challenging in the last few weeks. The Bank of England cut the base rate (hurrah!) but were pessimistic about the UK&rsquo;s growth prospects. Their expectations for GDP growth in 2025 cut from 1.5% to 0.75%.
 Of course, the Bank are not the only forecasters, with the latest consensus forecasts remaining north of 1%, but we expect to see a more tempered short-term outlook emerge in the coming weeks. The Office for Budget Responsibility will deliver their next forecast to parliament on 26 March. The combined effect of weaker economic growth and higher borrowing costs expected to have significantly reduced Rachel Reeves&rsquo; &pound;10bn of fiscal
 headroom.But fears of a recession in the second half of 2024 have been allayed by news that UK GDP grew by 0.4% in December, up from 0.1% in November.&nbsp; This means estimates for Q4 2024 have tipped (marginally) into positive territory at 0.1% growth, higher
 than the 0.1% contraction forecasters were expecting in a recent poll by Bloomberg. Annually GDP is estimated to be 1.5% higher in December 2024 than it was a year earlier, with full year estimates lower at 0.8% year-on-year.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1739544753/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Feb14-Chart2.jpg" />Increased construction activity contributed to the latest growth figures. Government estimates suggest construction output rose 0.5% in the three months to December 2024 compared with the three months to September. The rise in activity was led by new work, which increased by 1.2%, with repairs and maintenance activity falling marginally by 0.4%. Private new housing was one of the main drivers in the growth in new work, rising 1.3%. Positive news for the sector but still 20% lower than the post-pandemic peak in September 2022.&nbsp; The return of the sub 4% fixBoth Santander and Barclays have announced new 3.99% fixed rates deals, signalling the return of the sub-4% mortgage which has been absent from the market for a few months now (although with a hefty fee and low loan-to-value). It&rsquo;s hoped that breaching the psychological sub 4% barrier will bring more home movers, who had become accustomed to record low rates, back to the market. Fewer home movers have meant the proportion of first-time buyers in the market has risen significantly. UK Finance figures crunched by Halifax show there were more than 340,000 first-time purchases in 2024, up 19% on 2023. First-time buyers accounted for more than half (54%) of mortgaged purchases last year, a record high since the data was first collected back in 2014.&nbsp; Latest from the RICSThe proliferation of lower rates will be good news for activity in the housing market, but in their absence the latest RICS Survey shows a tentative start to the year in January. Activity in the sales market remained broadly flat last month, with the same number of respondents reporting new buyer enquiries rising than falling in January. Here at JLL we&rsquo;re in the (marginally) more positive camp, with data from our offices showing a modest uptick in new applicants registering so far this year, up 6% on the same period in 2024.Sellers continue to return to the market, with more respondents (a balance of +25%) reporting an increase in new instructions, higher than the +16% recorded in December. Stock per surveyor rose too, reaching 45 homes in January, up from 41 at the same point a year ago. For lettings, tenant demand remained broadly flat, with the balance of opinion at +2% in January, meaning marginally more respondents reported a rise than a fall. Fewer landlord instructions were reported again in January (net balance of -19%), with March 2022 being the last month when we saw a positive net balance recorded. Lack of stock, through fewer landlord instructions, is still expected to underpin further rental growth this year.New TownsHousing Minister Matthew Pennycook has announced that more than 100 potential sites across England have been submitted to the New Towns Taskforce for consideration. The sites, the majority of which are urban extensions, aim to provide more than 10,000 homes each with the government promising spades in the ground before the end of this parliament. Initial reports suggest the government could green light around 12 schemes, or more than 120,000 homes. But few, if any, of these homes will be delivered within this parliament, meaning their (self-imposed) challenge of building 1.5 million homes remains.

Residential Roundup - 14 February

Angela Rayner has committed another &pound;350 million to address the shortfall of affordable homes. &pound;300m has been signed off to boost the Affordable Homes Programme with a further &pound;50m for the Local Authority Housing Fund.

Angela Rayner has committed another £350 million to address the shortfall of affordable homes. £300m has been signed off to boost the Affordable Homes Programme with a further £50m for the Local Authority Housing Fund.

Angela Rayner has committed another &pound;350 million to address the shortfall of affordable homes. &pound;300m has been signed off to boost the Affordable Homes Programme with a further &pound;50m for the Local Authority Housing Fund. Every little helps for those looking to deliver affordable housing, but the scale of the problem and the years of shortfall in delivery means that further funding will be needed on top.

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Growth taking off? Heading out to Davos Rachel Reeves was keen to stress Britain was open for business. And on her return the growth narrative continued, with announcements on the intention to support a third runway at Heathrow and investment in the Oxford Cambridge Growth
 Corridor, which could bring in an additional &pound;78bn for the UK economy by 2035. In addition, Reeves reiterated commitments to rail improvements, new mass transit infrastructure and the regeneration of Old Trafford, potentially including a new
 stadium for Man United &ndash; all of which involve unlocking additional sites for viable housing development. To accelerate the timeline for a third runway, planning changes will be pushed through to ensure gaining planning for infrastructure projects becomes simpler and less ponderous. Similar changes have been proposed for our sector, with planning reform sitting
 alongside Labour&rsquo;s ambitious plans for housing delivery. UK housing starts subduedReleased this week, the latest starts and completions figures (for Q3 2024) make for sobering reading, with 37,000 new homes started, 28% lower than the Q3 average pre-pandemic. Starts in the year to September were down 35% on the previous 12 months.
 Completions dropped back too, with 7% fewer in the 12 months to September and a 13% drop annually in Q3. To put these numbers in context, completions across England totalled less than 157,000 in the last 12 months, meaning that if we relied on completions
 alone it would take us more than nine years to get the 1.5 million homes the government has committed to deliver in five.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1738337351/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Jan31-Chart1.jpg" />A similar picture in LondonAccording to Molior London, the number of homes started across Greater London last year fell 16% on 2023 and were 50% lower than the previous 10-year average. It was a similar story for completions, down 20% on the 10-year average, and planning permissions,
 down 58% on the 10-year and 37% annually.&nbsp; But ending with better news, applications rose annually in 2024, the number of units at application stage up by a third compared with 2023. Relaxing the rules on non-dom taxationA recent report by New World Wealth and Henley &amp; Partners suggests the UK has seen 26,000 millionaires depart since the start of 2017, with a net outflow of 9,500 in 2024 alone. With many countries now courting footloose high net worths with more
 attractive tax rates, the UK is looking increasingly out of step. Plans to change tax rules around non-doms were initiated under the Conservatives and re-iterated in the Budget, but in a recent interview Rachel Reeves suggests the Government is &lsquo;re-thinking&rsquo;
 it&rsquo;s plans. &nbsp;Reeves stated they will be tabling an amendment to the Finance Bill to include a more generous Temporary Repatriation Facility, which enables non-doms to bring money into the UK at a lower tax rate. She also reassured non-doms over double taxation and
 inheritance tax liabilities for those fearing they would become liable for tax in more than one country. Prime Central LondonConflicting messages were coming out of Prime Central London in Q4. Activity rose, with the number of homes changing hands at a 10-year high for fourth quarter sales, but fewer buyers were in the market at the top end and overall prices dipped 4% in 2024
 due in part to fewer higher value homes trading towards the year end. As usual the fourth quarter was relatively quiet for the Prime Central London lettings market, but activity was in line with Q4 2023, with 3% fewer new lets agreed. Full year figures show there were almost 4,400 new lets agreed in Prime Central London
 in 2024, 5% higher than 2023. While activity gradually increased during the year, we saw slower growth in rents. The JLL PCL Rental Index shows average annual rental growth cooling over the past two years from a high of 15% annual growth in Q1 2022.
 Rents ended the year 0.4% higher than at the end of 2023. Looking ahead stock levels are lower as we move into Q1 2025, with 15% fewer homes on the market to let than at the end of the third quarter and 8.5% fewer than in the same period a year earlier.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1738337351/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Jan31-Chart2.jpg" /><a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/insights/research/prime-central-london-report-q4-2024">Click here </a>to read our latest PCL report. Build-to-rent investment rises in Q4Q4 2024 was the most active quarter for build-to-rent investment since 2021, marking a significant increase on a lacklustre third quarter. Investment in the fourth quarter totalled &pound;2bn, taking the full year total to &pound;5.4bn. Single family housing proved popular with investors, as they acquired 7,000 new rental homes in 2024. However, despite a record year for single family investment, a rise in multifamily in Q4 meant it ended the year marginally higher in overall volumes. Operational stock accounted for the bulk of multifamily transactions, with forward funding accounting for just a fifth of total investment. This is due in part to the fact the sector is maturing, with more stabilised stock to trade, but also reflects continued viability challenges faced by both the build-to-rent and build-to-sell markets. To read more on our latest build-to-rent numbers <a href="https://www.jll.co.uk/en/views/record-year-for-single-family-underpins-btr-investment-in-2024">Click here.</a>

Residential Roundup - 31 January

House prices rose 4.1% in the year to January 2025 according to the latest figures from Nationwide, down from 4.7% in December but still a higher annual growth figure than any other month in 2024.

House prices rose 4.1% in the year to January 2025 according to the latest figures from Nationwide, down from 4.7% in December but still a higher annual growth figure than any other month in 2024. This follows an uptick in mortgage approvals in December, with seasonally adjusted numbers showing a 0.7% rise on November levels and a 28% increase on a slow December 2023. If the MPC lower rates, as expected, at their next meeting on 6 February we could see a further increase in activity in February, although those shopping for fixed rates may find these reductions have already been factored into current deals.

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Latest figures from the Office for National Statistics show inflation fell to 2.5% annually in December, down from 2.6% the previous month, and lower than forecast. Core inflation fell to 3.2%, down from 3.5% in October, and services inflation, at 4.4%,
 was at its lowest since Q1 2022. Economists expected it would drop back to only 4.9%. There was some positive news from across the pond, too. Consumer prices rose annually by 2.9% but core inflation, a figure which often influences policy makers&rsquo; decisions on rates dropped to 3.2%.The response from the markets has been broadly positive, increasing the probability of further rate cuts when the Bank of England and Federal Reserve rate setters next meet.&nbsp; In the case of the MPC, 6 February is the date for your diaries.
UK EconomyUK GDP edged up in November, rising by a disappointing 0.1%. The back end of 2024 was slow, with growth weak in Q3 and a plateau forecast in Q4. For 2025 the consensus is for a return to growth, with the outlook more positive at 1.3% compared to 0.9%
 last year. Forecasts, according to Consensus Economics, range from the most optimistic at 1.8%, to the most pessimistic at 0.8%. For 2026 the forecast for growth is the same at 1.3%.The labour market remains robust if a little underwhelming. Higher public sector pay and an increase in the minimum wage align with rising private sector real wages, which are expected to support real spending this year.That said, challenges remain, with employers facing increased costs coming out of the Autumn Budget: higher national insurance contributions, the rise in the minimum wage and higher business property rates, all of which will likely impact both recruitment
 and inflation over the coming months.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1737126346/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Jan17-Chart1.png" />Mortgage ratesWe expect interest rates to fall, particularly following the latest inflation figures. Indeed, with low inflation and growth lower than the long-term trend, it is hard to see why the MPC wouldn&rsquo;t act. The question remains when. We are also facing a global bond sell off that is pushing up benchmark bond yields. Again, we have seen this improve in recent days, but our fiscal situation remains challenging.That said, the rapid rise in bond yields has not been mirrored by a similar rise in swap rates, meaning best buy mortgage rates haven&rsquo;t increased quite as much as feared. As we go to press, best buy rates sit at 4.3% for a two-year fix and 4.2%
 for a five-year (both at 75% LTV).PricesThe drop in mortgage approvals in November and rates remaining north of 4% are impacting buyer demand. In the latest RICS survey, more agents were still reporting an increase in new buyer enquiries, but the net balance fell back from +11% in November
 to +5% in December. However, the usual seasonal slowdown could be playing a role here, too.&nbsp; November figures from the ONS show average UK house prices rose 3.3% in the year to November 2024. Prices were broadly flat in London, down 0.1% annually, compared with growth of 5.9% in the North East.&nbsp;<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1737126346/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Jan17-Chart2.png" />RentsDecember isn&rsquo;t always the best month to take the temperature of the UK rental market. But the ONS rental index is still at near-record levels, averaging 9.0% in December, in line with the 9.1% annual change in November. Achieved rents on new lets show only marginal annual increases, falling to 1.3% across the UK in the year to December according to Homelet. New lets in London saw a modest annual fall of 2.6% in 2024.But the outlook for rental growth remains positive, with the latest figures from the RICS suggesting a net balance of +37% of agents expected rents to rise in the next three months, up from +29% last month. This is expected to be driven by lack of stock, with more agents reporting new landlord instructions falling, a net balance of -27% from -13% in November. HousebuildingPrivate housebuilding price inflation rose to 3.7%, once again above CPI. Meanwhile, the UK Construction PMI recorded a third consecutive month of housebuilding contraction, in sharp contrast to construction as a whole, which continues to expand.But some positive news from the housebuilding sector comes from Persimmon Homes, which reported the number of homes delivered in 2024 was up 7% annually, at the upper end of its expectations for the year.Regulatory updateThe Renters&rsquo; Rights Bill has now completed its passage through the House of Commons and is off to the House of Lords as it inches closer to becoming law. Several amendments were added this week, including a clause restricting landlords from requiring upfront payments of more than one month&rsquo;s rent (alongside a security deposit of five or six weeks&rsquo; rent). We&rsquo;ll be updating you separately on the Renters&rsquo; Rights Bill in the coming days.

Residential Roundup - 17 January

Good news on the UK economy has been hard to come by in recent weeks. But lower than forecast inflation figures have raised hopes and resulted in a much-needed positive response from the bond markets, with 30-year bond yields remaining elevated but down from their recent highs.

Good news on the UK economy has been hard to come by in recent weeks. But lower than forecast inflation figures have raised hopes and resulted in a much-needed positive response from the bond markets.

Good news on the UK economy has been hard to come by in recent weeks. But lower than forecast inflation figures have raised hopes and resulted in a much-needed positive response from the bond markets, with 30-year bond yields remaining elevated but down from their recent highs.

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<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1734604013/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Christmas-Chart1.png" />More new homesThe new National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) was introduced as an early Christmas present last week. Housing targets, based on the new approach to housing need first mooted in July, are now mandatory. The word of the day appears to be flexibility,
 with the NPPF confirming that councils will be required to review green belt boundaries if they cannot meet housing need from non-green belt land first. Any land defined as &lsquo;not strongly contributing&rsquo; to the green belt could be brought
 into scope. There appears to be more flexibility too on affordable housing targets, with a blanket affordable housing requirements of 50% on some sites proposed in the July draft. New plans look instead at a 15% uplift over the current highest policy requirement,
 with the 50% being used as a cap rather than threshold. But planning reform is just one part of the housing delivery puzzle, we&rsquo;ll need a Christmas miracle and plenty more construction elves to ramp up delivery to meet target in the short term.&nbsp;<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1734604013/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Christmas-Chart2.png" />Christmas presentThose hoping to put a new home under the Christmas tree this year will be paying more than they were a year ago.&nbsp; All the key house prices indices are reporting growth. The Nationwide index showing prices have risen 3.7%, the Land Registry 3.4% and Halifax 4.8% in the last 12 months. All marginally higher than our 2024 expectations back in May, with JLL forecasting growth of 2% growth in 2024. We are seeing more activity in the sales market. The number of homes sold in October 2024 was the highest since 2020, with the number of sales up 23% on 2023 levels. This follows a similar trend to the one we&rsquo;ve been observing for a few months now, with the number of transactions recorded between April and October 2024 up 11% on the same period a year earlier. Mortgage approvals are on the rise too. With the latest figures for October the highest since 2022. &nbsp;For rents the ONS Index, which includes new and existing tenancies, is showing rental growth of 9.1% in the 12 months to November, with Homelet (new lets only) reporting an annual increase of 2.2%.&nbsp;What do we predict for 2025? A busy start to Q1First-time buyers can save up to &pound;6,250 and existing owner occupiers up to &pound;2,500 in SDLT when buying a &pound;500,000 home before 1 April 2025. Expect a flurry of deals pushed through in Q1 2025 (and a bit of a lull post). But buyers will
 need to get their (ice) skates on to secure a home before the deadline with less than a third of homes going under offer in January traditionally completing before the start of April. House prices will riseThe latest monthly survey from the RICS points to further growth in prices as we move into 2025. Reported as a balance of opinion (a positive balance means more saying they think they&rsquo;ll rise than fall) a net balance of +47% of respondents expected
 prices will rise over the next 12 months, with views on price growth positive for all UK regions.Demand appears to be rising too, with a net balance of +12% of agents reporting an increase, the fifth consecutive month posting a positive reading. This is also reflected in the outlook for sales activity, with a net balance of +19% expecting more sales
 over the next three months and +33% over the next 12. Here at JLL we expect house prices will rise by 20% over the next five-years, with rents expected to increase 17% over the same period. To read more on our forecasts <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/insights/news/jll-residential-forecast-2025-2029">click here.</a><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1734604013/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Christmas-Chart3.png" />Rental growth returns to low single digitsFor lettings, tenant demand remained broadly flat in November, with the RICS reporting a net balance of -1%. This has grabbed some headlines being the first negative reading on tenant demand since 2020. Despite a drop off in demand (to be fair November is never a busy month for lettings) more agents reported a further fall in landlord instructions, meaning the outlook for rental growth remained positive. A net balance of +29% of respondents to the survey expecting rents to rise in early 2025. Mortgage rates will fall (a bit)Despite average mortgage rates edging up over the last couple of months expectations remain that we&rsquo;ll see further rate cuts as we move into 2025. Five-year swap rates edged down in early December, 44bps lower than they were a year ago and down on recent post-budget highs. As expected, the Monetary Policy Committee held rates at 4.75% at their 19th December meeting, but consensus forecasts suggest we should see three further 25bps drops in the bank rate in 2025.&nbsp;Mortgage activity increasesUK Finance have just released their forecasts for 2025.&nbsp; They expect gross mortgage lending will rise 11% next year. Remortgaging is expected to rise 30% with lending for house purchase up 10% to &pound;148 billion. Only new buy-to-let lending is expected to fall, with lending of &pound;9 billion forecast, 7% lower than 2024 levels. But this follows a stronger than expected year for new buy-to-let lending, with borrowing expected to end the year 13% up on 2023 levels. Here&rsquo;s to 2025That&rsquo;s a wrap on 2024. All that&rsquo;s left is for us to wish you all a very merry Christmas and all the best for 2025 from us here at JLL Residential.&nbsp;

Residential Roundup – Christmas 2024

With the Christmas break in sight this, our last Roundup of 2024, looks back over the year and ahead at what we can expect in 2025.&nbsp;

With the Christmas break in sight this, our last Roundup of 2024, looks back over the year and ahead at what we can expect in 2025. 

News that stamp duty bills are rising for most buyers from April 1st has brought a few more house hunters out in December than usual. But for most minds are elsewhere, meaning that gleaning much from the property tea leaves can be difficult at this time of year. With the Christmas break in sight this, our last Roundup of 2024, looks back over the year and ahead at what we can expect in 2025.&nbsp;

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The Older People&rsquo;s Housing Taskforce Report published this week by the MHCLG flagged stamp duty as holding back activity in the later living market (it mentions it 17 times in the exec summary alone). We need between 30,000 and 50,000 new later
 living homes per annum but only currently build around 7,000. &nbsp;The report suggests introducing stamp duty incentives or equalising first-time buyer and &lsquo;last-time buyer&rsquo; rates for those looking to downsize could increase activity
 and allow older households to move to more suitable properties. Read more <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-older-peoples-housing-taskforce-report/our-future-homes-housing-that-promotes-wellbeing-and-community-for-an-ageing-population#annex-a-combined-set-of-recommendations-for-older-peoples-housinghomes-ophlater-living-housinghomes-llh">here.</a>We&rsquo;re unlikely to hear more on incentives until the Spending Review this coming spring, but until then we thought it was worth looking at rates, who pays and where revenues are coming from. Broader shoulders in higher value marketsProperty transaction tax (the majority of which is residential SDLT) is expected to bring in &pound;12.8 billion in the year to March 2024, rising to &pound;25 billion per annum by 2030 according to the OBR. Property transaction tax receipts are forecast
 to be around 40% higher than the much-discussed inheritance tax take over the next five years. Total residential receipts in year to March 2023 (2024 data is still only provisional) were &pound;11.7 billion.&nbsp;Comparing total residential receipts with the number of transactions shows a rise in revenue per transaction of 72% over the past decade,
 outpacing price growth by around 20 percentage points.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1732891743/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Nov29-Chart1.png" />Of the &pound;11.7 billion total, &pound;4.5 billion came from London sales. London buyers account for 59% of receipts, despite London sales being just 11% of the total nationally. The two most expensive London boroughs contributed &pound;1.45 billion to HMRC coffers, with &pound;690 million from sales in Kensington &amp; Chelsea and &pound;765 million from Westminster, 12.4% of national totals. Indeed, the top ten local authorities
 in terms of receipts contributed 26% of the total SDLT take. Eight of the top ten were London boroughs, with the remaining two high value Buckinghamshire and Elmbridge.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1732891743/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Nov29-Chart2.png" />Home moversStamp duty rates are most straightforward to understand for home movers purchasing their sole residence. Purchasers pay SDLT at differing rates dependent upon the proportion of the sale price which falls within each bracket. From April 2025 the rate at
 which buyers start paying SDLT returns to &pound;125k, down from &pound;250k currently (known as the nil-rate threshold). This will add &pound;2,500 to the stamp duty bill for someone buying a &pound;500,000 home. First-time buyersCurrent rules mean first time buyers purchasing homes at up to &pound;625k have a higher threshold before they start paying stamp duty, saving buyers at the upper price limit &pound;11,250 compared with rates from April 2025. Currently those purchasing
 homes up to &pound;625k don&rsquo;t pay stamp duty on the proportion of the home priced at below &pound;425k, in April 2025 this falls back to the previous limit of &pound;300k. Additional homesHigher Rates on Additional Dwellings (HRAD) accounted for &pound;4.2 billion of SDLT receipts in the year to September 2024, almost 50% of total receipts over the 12-month period.&nbsp; Following the autumn Budget those purchasing an additional property
 will pay a higher SDLT bill.&nbsp; With the previous 3% surcharge rising to 5% at midnight on Budget day. The SDLT cost to purchase a &pound;500k home as a UK resident now &pound;37,500, up &pound;10k on pre-Budget levels. ATEDAnnual Tax on Enveloped Dwelling, or ATED for short, is levied on residential properties owned by non-natural person, in most case those held within a company structure. It applies predominantly to properties valued at &pound;500,000 or more with the
 owner required to have the property valued every five years.&nbsp; An annual charge is then levied depending on the property&rsquo;s value. These range from &pound;4,400 a year for homes valued at &pound;500k to &pound;1million, to &pound;287,500
 for homes worth more than &pound;20 million (figures for 2024/25 financial year). On top of the annual charge properties purchased by &lsquo;non-natural persons&rsquo; attract a 17% SDLT rate. There are exemptions and reliefs available for certain
 assets so well worth taking advice.Buying multiple propertiesMultiple Dwellings Relief (MDR) was abolished under the previous government. Aimed at transactions where there was more than one dwelling, essentially the purchaser paid SDLT on each property at an individual rate per property, rather than on the total
 purchase price. But without MDR most buyers purchasing six or more residential properties now buy through non-residential SDLT.&nbsp; This approach treats the purchase as a single asset, with buyers paying 0% on purchases up to &pound;150k, 2% on
 purchases between &pound;150k and &pound;20k and 5% on purchases over &pound;250k. For more information on stamp duty rates <a href="https://www.tax.service.gov.uk/calculate-stamp-duty-land-tax/#!/intro">click here.</a><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1732891743/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Nov29-Chart3.png" />&nbsp;

Residential Roundup - 29 November

Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) has been in the news quite a bit recently.&nbsp; Those buying additional properties are paying more post-Budget and changes in the zero-rate threshold will mean added costs from April 2025 for all buyers.

Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) has been in the news quite a bit recently.  Those buying additional properties are paying more post-Budget and changes in the zero-rate threshold will mean added costs from April 2025 for all buyers.

Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) has been in the news quite a bit recently.&nbsp; Those buying additional properties are paying more post-Budget and changes in the zero-rate threshold will mean added costs from April 2025 for all buyers.

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The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics show the UK economy all but plateauing in Q3, with economic growth of 0.1% recorded, below the 0.2% forecast and lower than the 0.5% figure for Q2. Understandably the Chancellor is disappointed
 with these numbers and will be hoping that with the budget behind us we&rsquo;ll see more activity and a shift away from pre-Budget inertia. <h2>Wages rising</h2>Annual growth in weekly earnings rose 4.8% in the three months to September, according to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics. Wage growth remained above inflation, rising 1.4% in real (inflation adjusted) terms. These figures support
 assertions by the Bank of England that some heat is coming out of the labour market as we move towards the end of the year and remains in line with expectations. <h2>The latest from the RICS</h2>In contrast to the lacklustre economic news, the latest RICS survey showed some signs of cautious optimism in the housing market. The headline net balance (remember the RICS report on balance of opinion so anything in positive territory suggests more
 agents reporting a rise than a fall) for new buyer enquiries was positive for the fourth consecutive month, albeit little changed from September at +12%. Sales activity looked to be edging up too, with a net balance of +9% of agents reporting an increase.
 This is the third consecutive monthly rise, following broadly negative readings since early 2022. Outlook on price growth remained positive too, with the net balance of agents expecting prices to rise over the next 12 months increasing to +20% in
 October, up from +12% the month prior. <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1731679600/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Rise-Q4.png" />For lettings, results from the October survey show tenant demand rising in the three months to October, with more respondents seeing an increase than a fall, returning a positive net balance of +19%. But there were fewer landlord instructions, possibly
 reflecting pre-Budget caution from landlords, with a net balance of -29% of agents reporting a fall in the three months to October.&nbsp; The most negative figure for three years. Unsurprisingly, with demand increasing and fewer instructions, respondents
 were more optimistic about the prospect for rent rises in the coming months. A balance of +33% of agents expecting rents to rise over the next three months. <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1731679599/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Rent-Rises.png" />The ONS rental index (all lets) shows rents up 8.4% annually, but new lets (via Homelet) are showing a 3.4% annual increase nationally. For sales, Nationwide show prices up 2.4% annually with Halifax figures suggesting higher growth of 3.9%. <h2>Base rates fall but fixed rates rise</h2>In the run up to the Monetary Policy Committee meeting on 7th November most were forecasting a further reduction in the base rate.&nbsp; Even with a mixed reaction following the budget this view didn&rsquo;t waiver much and was confirmed with
 a 25bps reduction.&nbsp; The MPC members voting eight to one to reduce rates (the one voting to stick). But messaging from the MPC suggests chances of a further 2024 reduction when they next meet on 19th December remain slim. The November drop is good news for those on variable or tracker rates, but for those shopping for fixed rates a rise in swap rates, which started to build pre-Budget, means a host of lenders have increased their fixed rates.&nbsp; At the time of writing
 most sub 4% five-year fixes have been pulled from the market, rates are still lower than the 4.7% best-buys a year ago but expect them to sit slightly higher until we have some clarity on swaps. &nbsp;<h2>Starts drop in London</h2>A new approach to measuring housing need in London suggests we should be targeting 80,000 completions a year in the capital. But Molior London figures show housing starts in London so far this year (January to September) are down 53%
 on the ten-year average. Figures from the GLA show the number of affordable housing starts in the six months to September 2024 fell 23% on 2023 levels, with just shy of 2,700 affordable homes completed. Over the same six-month period there were just
 582 GLA-funded affordable homes started, up on 2023 levels but nowhere near target. Expect continued scarcity in the London new homes market until we see an uptick in activity. <h2>Updated JLL forecasts</h2>Back in May our revised forecast coincided with the announcement of a UK General Election and in November we were upstaged again when our forecast launch fell on the same day as the US election.
So, for those who may have missed it, our updated 2025 to 2029 forecast expects activity to
increase steadily from 2025 onwards, with prices up 20% and rents up 17% by the end of the five-year forecast period. To read more on our latest outlook for 2025-2029 <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/insights/news/jll-residential-forecast-2025-2029">click here.</a><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1731677711/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Outlook-Price-Rent.png" />

Residential Roundup - 15 November

It&rsquo;s been a busy couple of weeks since we last updated you following the UK Budget. Trump is heading back to the White House, the Bank of England has dropped the bank rate 25bps to 4.75%, and here at JLL we&rsquo;ve released our latest house price forecasts.

It’s been a busy couple of weeks since we last updated you following the UK Budget. Trump is heading back to the White House, the Bank of England has dropped the bank rate 25bps to 4.75%, and here at JLL we’ve released our latest house price forecasts.

It&rsquo;s been a busy couple of weeks since we last updated you following the UK Budget. Trump is heading back to the White House for a second time, the Bank of England has dropped the bank rate 25bps to 4.75%, and here at JLL we&rsquo;ve released our latest house price forecasts. The latter obviously grabbing the lion&rsquo;s share of headlines&hellip;.

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With the October Budget behind us, the outlook for both prices and rents remains positive. The government is forging ahead with its plan to deliver more homes, but it will take some time before we see any real impact on overall supply. Increased government
 borrowing means the latest inflation forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility have come in higher than expected, which could throw some cold water on more bullish forecasts for mortgage rates.&nbsp; But the direction of travel appears to
 be the same, even if it may take a little longer to get there. Lack of supply and more competitive mortgage rates are expected to underpin growth in prices over the next five years. Rental growth is expected to exceed inflation and wages over the five-year forecast period, but an increase in activity in the sales
 market means rental growth is expected to lag price growth, with rents forecast to be 17% higher by the end of 2029. <h2>2024 outlook</h2>Back in May we forecast house prices nationally would rise by 2% in 2024. This was underpinned by a continued resilience and lack of distress in the sales market, with prices holding firm despite the challenge of higher rates and uncertainties in the
 run up to the election (which at that point we were thinking would take place in the autumn). An early election was seen as a positive for the market, but Budget jitters meant much of that hoped for momentum was lost (or at least delayed).Looking at the latest government figures (year to August 2024) shows prices have risen 2.8% annually, with more recent Nationwide figures for the year to October at 2.4%. There are obviously a few months to go but we expect year end growth to come in
 marginally above our 2% forecast. Scotland and the north of England are expected to see higher growth. Higher mortgage rates remained most challenging for more expensive markets in London and southern England, with growth in these regions, as forecast,
 lower than other areas of the UK this year.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1730756189/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Resi-Forecast-Chart-1.jpg" />We forecast UK rents would end 2024 4.5% higher annually.&nbsp; The ONS Private Rents Index, which we benchmark against, is still showing growth of 8.4% in the year to August, but new lets data from Homelet data shows average rents were 4.3% higher in
 September 2024 than they were a year earlier. We expect ONS figures could end the year higher than our 4.5% forecast, but the significant imbalance between tenant demand and supply has levelled off in recent months so we expect some further heat will
 come out of the rental market as we move into 2025. <h2>Lessons from the (recent) past</h2>Looking back over the last 25 years, price growth (taken here in five-year chunks to mirror our five-year outlook) shows three distinct periods for growth. Before the Global Financial Crisis five-year growth of 60% or more was the norm. But the period
 of re-correction that followed saw much of this froth removed from the market as five-year growth fell back to single digits or low teens to compensate for the significant tightening of the debt markets. But for the last decade, despite significant variation in mortgage rates and a global pandemic, house prices rises over a five-year term have remained remarkably consistent. Peaking in 2017 at 33% but otherwise ranging from 21% to 27%.&nbsp;<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1730756189/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Resi-Forecast-Chart-2.jpg" /><h2>UK Economy</h2><style>td,
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<div style="overflow-x:auto;" align="center"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="1" align="left"><tbody><tr class="red"><th scope="col"></th><th scope="col">2025</th><th scope="col" data-role="resizable">2026</th><th scope="col">2027</th><th scope="col" data-role="resizable">2028</th><th scope="col" data-role="resizable">2029</th><th scope="col">Change 2025-29</th></tr><tr><td>CPI (OBR)</td><td>2.6</td><td>2.3</td><td>2.1</td><td>2.1</td><td>2.0</td><td>11.6</td></tr><tr><td>Wages (OE)</td><td>2.7</td><td>2.4</td><td>2.5</td><td>2.8</td><td>2.9</td><td>14.0</td></tr><tr><td>UK GDP (OBR)</td><td>2</td><td>1.8</td><td>1.5</td><td>1.5</td><td>1.6</td><td>8.7</td></tr></tbody></table></div>Source: JLL Research using Office of Budget Responsibility, Oxford EconomicsThe outlook for economic growth remains muted, with inflation expected to sit a little higher than the Bank of England&rsquo;s 2% target until 2029.&nbsp; But the Bank of England rate cutting cycle is expected to continue and assuming swap rates settle
 post Budget and the US election we&rsquo;ll likely see mortgage rates fall back too - if not quite as quickly as we had hoped. Consensus forecasts suggest rate cuts will run through until the end of 2026, with mortgage rates expected to become more competitive over this period. Following a similar trend to 2024 we anticipate lower value markets will benefit first.&nbsp; Activity
 will be driven by first time buyers, with home movers following once rates become more attractive. Higher value markets in London and the south are expected to see stronger growth in the second half of our five-year forecast period.<h2>Market activity</h2><style>td,
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<div style="overflow-x:auto;" align="center"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="1" align="left"><tbody><tr class="red"><th scope="col" data-role="resizable"></th><th scope="col" data-role="resizable">2024</th><th scope="col">2025</th><th scope="col">2026</th><th scope="col" data-role="resizable">2027</th><th scope="col">2028</th><th scope="col">2029</th></tr><tr><td>Housing Starts</td><td>135,000</td><td>157,000</td><td>179,000</td><td>199,000</td><td>224,000</td><td>244,000</td></tr><tr><td>Transactions</td><td>1.0m</td><td>1.2m</td><td>1.3m</td><td>1.3m</td><td>1.3m</td><td>1.4m</td></tr></tbody></table></div>Source: JLL Research, ExperianCommitting to build 1.5 million homes over the course of this parliament, the government has set itself an ambitious target.&nbsp; But ramping up delivery without any demand side stimulus will be a real challenge. Current supply side plans have started
 to put the building blocks in place to ramp up delivery but increasing delivery in a meaningful way with current planning, labour force, and supply chain constraints won&rsquo;t be a quick fix. JLL forecast new housing starts across the UK will total
 1 million homes between 2025 and 2029.&nbsp; Conversions of existing stock (currently accounting for around one in ten net additions) are expected to rise too, so we&rsquo;ve allowed (possibly sightly ambitiously) for 200,000 in the next five years
 taking us to a forecast of 1.2 million homes. <h2 style="text-align:left;">Sales price forecasts</h2><style>td,
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<div style="overflow-x:auto;" align="center"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="1" align="left"><tbody><tr class="red"><th scope="col">Sales price growth (% pa)</th><th scope="col">2025</th><th scope="col">2026</th><th scope="col">2027</th><th scope="col" data-role="resizable">2028</th><th scope="col">2029</th><th scope="col">Change 2025-29</th><th scope="col">Average pa 2025-29</th></tr><tr><td>UK</td><td>3.5</td><td>4.0</td><td>4.5</td><td>3.5</td><td>3.0</td><td>19.9</td><td>3.7</td></tr><tr><td>Greater London</td><td>2.5</td><td>3.5</td><td>5.0</td><td>5.0</td><td>4.0</td><td>21.6</td><td>4.0</td></tr></tbody></table></div>Source: JLL Research A new government with ambitious plans for housebuilding and more comfortable with a higher tax environment, particularly for wealthier households, could mean future growth prospects differ from the recent past. But neither of the these seem a sufficient
 departure from the current trend to meaningfully change the path of growth over the coming five-year period (2025-2029). We do expect higher rates (even if they fall back from current levels) will limit growth prospects, meaning our 2025-2029 forecasts sit at the lower end of the recent five year averages. We expect growth of 19.9% nationally 2025-2029. London house prices are expected to increase by 21.6% over the same period, underpinned by a lack of new homes reaching the market for sale. We expect lower value markets to see stronger growth towards the
 beginning of our five-year forecast period, with more expensive markets outperforming once the rate cutting cycle continues into 2026 and 2027.&nbsp; <h2 style="text-align:left;">Rental forecasts</h2><style>td,
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<div style="overflow-x:auto;" align="center"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="1" align="left"><tbody><tr class="red"><th scope="col">Rental growth (% pa)</th><th scope="col" data-role="resizable">2025</th><th scope="col">2026</th><th scope="col">2027</th><th scope="col" data-role="resizable">2028</th><th scope="col">2029</th><th scope="col">Change 2025-29</th><th scope="col">Average pa 2025-29</th></tr><tr><td>UK</td><td>3.0</td><td>2.5</td><td>3.0</td><td>3.5</td><td>4.0</td><td>17.1</td><td>3.2</td></tr><tr><td>Greater London</td><td>2.5</td><td>3.0</td><td>3.5</td><td>4.0</td><td>4.5</td><td>18.8</td><td>3.5</td></tr><tr><td>UK BTR</td><td>3.5</td><td>3.5</td><td>3.5</td><td>4.0</td><td>4.5</td><td>20.5</td><td>3.8</td></tr></tbody></table></div>Source: JLL Research In the five years to September 2024 rents rose nationally by 27%. But the rapid rise in rents in the last three years isn&rsquo;t reflective of the long-term trend.&nbsp; Five-year growth figures in early 2020 sat at around 12%, when rents broadly tracked
 wage growth. The supply demand imbalance which has in part driven rent rises (wage growth and inflation also contributed) is now becoming more balanced, but a lack of new stock entering the market means we anticipate rental growth will exceed wage growth and inflation
 over the next five years. The October Budget did little to change our view.&nbsp; Capital Gains Tax for residential property remained the same, meaning exit costs didn&rsquo;t rise, but entry costs did.&nbsp; Landlords looking to purchase homes now having to pay an additional
 2% stamp duty over the previous already elevated bill. We expect this will mean more traditional buy-to-let landlords will leave the market than enter over the next five years. But activity in the sales market is expected to increase too, likely meaning an increase in tenants moving across into owner occupation, alleviating some demand side pressures in the short term.&nbsp; JLL forecast UK rents will rise 17% over the next five years, with rental growth in the London expected to total 18% over the same period.<h2 style="text-align:left;">What to watch</h2><ul><li style="text-align:left;">EPC C by 2030 &ndash; Around half of all privately rented homes nationally are EPC D or below.&nbsp; As we move closer to the 2030 deadline, we expect some landlords will offload less efficient stock or remove properties from the
 market to retrofit to meet the new standard. Expect rents to rise in the run up as stock levels fall. For sales, landlords selling properties could bring more lower value homes to the market impacting average prices. </li><li style="text-align:left;">Renters Right Bill &ndash; Current proposals include the provision for tenants to challenge market busting rental increases. Our forecast for lower annual increases will help cushion the impact here but may limit the potential for
 growth in some markets, particularly if the courts are overwhelmed with applicants. Landlords concerned around the impact of the bill could also chose to exit the market, particularly as the sales market improves. </li><li style="text-align:left;">Buyer incentives &ndash; With the stamp duty threshold returning to its previous &pound;300,000 level for first time buyers next spring there was surprisingly little in the budget to incentivise buyers.&nbsp; However, there was reference
 to Phase 2 of the Spending Review in Q2 2025, so we could see further incentives or concessions introduced then. </li><li style="text-align:left;">Rates &ndash; A more rapid fall in mortgage rates could mean higher value markets see stronger growth earlier. </li><li style="text-align:left;">Housebuilding &ndash; The government has ambitious plans for new homes.&nbsp; We do expect activity to increase but still assume starts will lag the 1.5 million target. Our current forecast accounts for stock scarcity in the new homes
 market towards the start of the five-year period with new development activity not expected to be sufficiently high to have any negative impact on prices. </li><li style="text-align:left;">International buyers and prime London &ndash; Changes to non-dom rules and increases in SDLT on additional properties mean higher costs for overseas buyers. But a lack of stock, particularly of new homes, means those who are in the
 market may find choice scarce and competition for the best stock remains strong.&nbsp;</li></ul>

JLL Residential Forecast 2025-2029

Houses prices expected to rise by 20% in the next five years as lower mortgage rates bring buyers back to the market. Rental growth slows from recent highs.

Houses prices expected to rise by 20% in the next five years as lower mortgage rates bring buyers back to the market. Rental growth slows from recent highs.

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The announcement on additional borrowing had already unsettled investors in the run up to the budget, driving government borrowing costs to a five-month high.&nbsp; But leaks and briefings on some key policies pre-Budget appear to have had the desired effect meaning we&rsquo;re still below post mini-budget levels.For housing there was little evidence of some of the much-speculated changes we heard rumour of in the run up. Some will see this as a missed opportunity.&nbsp; But this is far from the worst-case scenario many had feared. And clarification on government plans, or at least an end to pre-budget speculation, should bring more prospective buyers back to the market.After all, the housing market looks to be in decent shape.&nbsp; Mortgage approval figures in September were at their highest for more than two years, with lower rates bringing more prospective buyers back to the market.&nbsp; Prices are edging up in response and activity across the market is recovering, too.So what was in the budget for housing? <h2>UK economy on the path to recovery</h2>The latest figures from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) suggest the UK economy will grow by 1.1% this year and by 2.0% in 2025 in real terms. Inflation (CPI) is expected to sit marginally above the 2% target each year until 2029. <h2>Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT)</h2>Changes to stamp duty rules mean those purchasing properties in addition to their main residence (buy-to-let and second homes) will now pay a 5% rather than 3% surcharge. Adding &pound;10,000 to the stamp duty bill for a &pound;500,000 home. The single rate of SDLT charged on the purchase of dwellings costing &pound;500,000 or more by corporate bodies will also rise from 15% to 17%. Increases in rates were not necessarily viewed as a significant revenue raiser (an extra &pound;400 million by 2029/30) but would rather level the playing field between first time buyers and investors. But extra stamp duty for additional properties was not accompanied by an increase in incentives for first time buyers, with nothing in the budget on the first time buyer zero rate thresholds, which are due to drop back from &pound;425,000 to &pound;300,000 in April 2025. Instead, the government has committed to consult the industry on extending the mortgage guarantee scheme, effectively a 5% deposit scheme for first time buyers. News on that is promised in Phase 2 of the Spending Review next Spring.<h2>Capital Gains Tax (CGT)</h2>Tax on gains for residential property were left at their current level of 18% for lower rate and 24% for higher rate tax payers. Disposal of other assets, including shares, was normalised with residential property at 24%. With suggestions that &lsquo;normalisation&rsquo; could have been imposed with income tax rates, this should add some comfort to those in the sector. &nbsp;<h2>Affordable housing</h2>The government reaffirmed its commitment to deliver more affordable homes.&nbsp; A &pound;500million top up was promised for the Affordable Homes Programme and a consultation for an ongoing five-year rent settlement at CPI+1 (guaranteeing the rent cap on the amount providers can charge) was announced.&nbsp; Those wanting clarity on future grant investment will need to wait until the Spending Review in Q2 next year.<h2>Right to Buy</h2>Discounts for those purchasing through Right to Buy scheme will be reduced and councils in England will be able to keep all the receipts from sales to deliver new homes. This will need further investment to stem the loss of social housing through the scheme, with the latest annual figures showing 3,046 homes started using Right to Buy receipts versus 6,275 sold. <h2>Inheritance tax (IHT)</h2>The Chancellor announced current inheritance tax thresholds will be frozen until 2030, two years ahead of plans pre-budget. This means individuals can continue to leave &pound;325,000 free of tax, rising to &pound;500,000 if leaving your home to your children. Couples can inherit each other&rsquo;s allowance, meaning if you tick all the boxes &pound;1million can be left free of IHT. But new rules will bring previously exempt assets into play, meaning pensions, which had been IHT exempt, will fall within the totals from April 2027. Owners of agricultural and business property, again previously able to benefit from exemptions, will from April 2026 need to consider their liabilities over certain thresholds, although allowances will mean an effective rate of 20% rather than 40%. <h2>Housing supply</h2>We&rsquo;ve already heard from the government on its plans for delivering more homes, so perhaps a lack of detail within the budget was to be expected. The government committed &pound;5bn to their housing building programme in 2025/26 and repeated its commitment to provide 300 new planners (effectively less than one per authority), but the new planning framework (NPPF) due at the end of the year is expected to fill in some further gaps here. <h2>Non-doms</h2>As expected, the government announced it will end current non-domiciled tax rules from April 2025 and introduce a new residence-based system. For those looking to bring assets into the UK, the government will extend the temporary repatriation facility from two to three years. This isn&rsquo;t new, and follows similar plans announced under the Conservatives. The budget confirmed that only gains made after April 2017 will be considered as part of the new proposals, but the door is still open for government to bring worldwide assets within the scope of UK inheritance tax.<h2>What we missed</h2>With the government having already announced plans to reinstate ambitious housing targets post-election we had hoped the budget would include some news on stimulus for demand. Yet incentives for home purchase, changes to stamp duty land tax (aside from the increase for additional properties) and the reintroduction of Multiple Dwellings Relief were conspicuous in their absence this time around. More positive news on the UK economy and further interest rate cuts expected before the end of the year will likely support house price growth. But while we acknowledge increasing demand when supply remains low could challenge affordability further, the government needs to reassure developers and investors that there will be a market for a higher number of new homes they&rsquo;ve committed to deliver.&nbsp;

Residential Roundup – Budget Special

With the plans from the first Labour Budget in 14 years expected to bring in an extra &pound;40bn &ndash; read Marcus Dixon&rsquo;s overview of what was included for housing, in this week&rsquo;s Residential Roundup.

With the plans from the first Labour Budget in 14 years expected to bring in an extra £40bn – read Marcus Dixon’s overview of what was included for housing, in this week’s Residential Roundup.

The first Labour Budget in 14 years was never going to please everyone. This was a tax raising Budget, with the Chancellor&rsquo;s plans expected to bring in an extra &pound;40bn. Employers will be shouldering much of the financial responsibility, with funding public services core to Labours plans.

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UK economic outlook improvingWith economic growth across the UK coming in broadly above expectation so far this year, a raft of forecasters have begun upgrading their outlook for growth. Consensus forecasts now expect the UK economy will grow by 1.0% this year (they were at 0.6%
 at the start of 2024). The Bank of America and the British Chamber of Commerce are the latest to upgrade, both now expecting growth of 1.1% in 2024. Before we get too excited, these aren&rsquo;t big numbers and still mean the UK lags many of our mainland
 European neighbours. However, a brighter picture will embolden investors as many of the other key economic and housing market indicators turn positive in H2.&nbsp;<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1725625974/resi/gb/Articles/Images/RR-6-Sept-1.jpg" />More favourable ratesFollowing the Bank of England&rsquo;s August rate cut and more competitive five-year interbank lending rates (SONIA) emerging we&rsquo;ve seen a flurry of more competitive mortgage rates enter the market.&nbsp; The latest being a five-year fix at sub
 3.8%. While these rates would still make your average 2020 borrower wince, in the &lsquo;new normal&rsquo; a sub 4% rate appears to be sufficient for the wheels of the mortgaged housing market to begin turning more freely again. &nbsp;It's still a little early for the latest mortgage approval figures to fully reflect the impact of lower rates and certainly many have had other things on their mind over the summer break. But the July approval figures do appear to be showing the early
 signs of an uptick in activity. The latest figures from the Bank of England showing July approvals rose to 62,000, the highest since September 2022. More stock entering the marketRightmove reported an uptick in listings this summer, with July recording an 11% annual increase in stock reaching the market for sale. Rate cuts in early August added further to vendors propensity to list, with listings to mid-month in August up 19%
 on the same period a year earlier. Prospective buyers are returning to the market. Here at JLL the number of viewings in July and August are up 48% compared with the same period a year ago. Prices are rising too, with Nationwide reporting prices up 2.4% annually in August, having risen
 on an annual basis every month since February.Transactions riseTransaction data is always a lagging indicator. With lengthy conveyancing delays also meaning the time between a buyer committing to purchase and the sale completing often stretching to more than three months. However, even accounting for these delays
 we are starting to see the number of homes changing hands edge up. The latest government figures showing just shy of 91,000 seasonally adjusted transactions in July, up 7% on July 2023.Rents The latest new lets figures from Homelet show a disparity between rental growth nationally. London, often the most reactive market, has seen annual rental growth of just above flat this month at 0.1% (albeit up 2.2% on last month). Whereas some regional
 markets are still seeing rents rise by up to 9.4% (East of England).Conflicting reports on landlords selling upRightmove data shows an increase in listings of homes for sale which have been previously let on the portal.&nbsp; With 18% of homes currently on the market nationally previously listed to let, up from 8% in 2010 and 14% over the last five years. This
 rises to 29% in London, although it is worth noting that around 30% of households in London rent privately, far higher than in other regions. There are a few reasons homes are being listed. Obviously, debt costs for leveraged buy-to-let investors have risen, in addition to the removal of tax breaks on mortgage interest payments. &nbsp;Uncertainty around capital gains and inheritance tax post
 budget alongside the expected return of the 2030 EPC C obligation will also be impacting investors&rsquo; choices. However, this too could be a sign of a stronger sales market, with reluctant landlords who in a more challenging market have looked
 to rent rather than sell simply returning to the market to test the water. &nbsp;
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1725625974/resi/gb/Articles/Images/RR-6-Sept-2.jpg" />New developmentDelivering more homes was one of the key pledges of the Labour manifesto, with all regions aside from London set to see their housing targets increase (even London&rsquo;s new targets still expected to be more than double recent delivery). For more on what this means at a local level <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/insights/research/jll-new-housing-targets-analysis-targets-by-numbers-august-2024">click here.</a>But the latest starts and completions figures for Q1 demonstrate the scale of the task ahead. The Q1 2024 figures, released at the end of August show there were 22,310 house building starts (seasonally adjusted) in England, a 11% increase compared with the previous quarter, but 41% down on the same quarter of 2023.&nbsp; The introduction of new building regulations just over a year ago caused starts to spike in Q2 2023 at almost 67,000. This meant schemes which would under normally (regulatory) circumstances have been delivered later were pulled forward.&nbsp; As a result, falls in more recent quarters could be overstated, but in any case, we&rsquo;ll need to see a reversal of this trend soon to get near the 1.5 million homes target within this parliament. In case you missed it&hellip;.Our latest Big Six Residential Development Report, <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/insights/research/big-six-residential-development-report-summer-2024">Click here to read more.</a>

Residential Roundup – 6 September

jll-why-to-live-in-greenwich-london

Looking closely at the latest numbers to see what impact the new government and more importantly the August rate cut are having on the market.

Regardless of your age September has a distinct back to school feel. Those of us ditching the beach bag for the briefcase will be looking closely at the latest numbers to see what impact the new government and more importantly the August rate cut are having on the market. Despite the usual summer slowdown making it a bit more difficult to tell, there are signs that the market is waking up.

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<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1723790127/resi/gb/Articles/Images/RR-16-Aug-1.jpg" />
GDP rising
The UK economy grew by 0.6% in the three months to June, following a 0.7% increase in Q1. The services sector was the key driver behind growth, rising 0.8%, with both manufacturing and construction posting a marginal fall of 0.1% (although worth remembering
 this was pre-election and pre-rate cut). Annually, this means real GDP is estimated to have risen 0.9%. There is good news on per capita GDP growth, too, rising for the second quarter running, albeit still down 0.9% on pre-pandemic highs. 
What does this mean for my mortgage? 
The Bank of England&rsquo;s rate cut has started to feed through into the mortgage markets. Five-year fixes for those with healthy deposits are now available at below 3.9%, with best-buy two-year equivalents sitting at circa 4.3%.
More activity? 
The latest data from the S&amp;P Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) suggests activity in the construction sector continues to increase. Its latest release shows activity rising for the fifth consecutive month in July. More activity has also led to increases
 in recruitment, with firms reporting a rise in staffing levels for the third consecutive month. Housebuilding, which had lagged the commercial sector, has now also entered growth territory. 
Rental Market
Overall rental growth remains high and unchanged at 8.6%, according to the latest figures from the ONS (Office for National Statistics), but new lets data tells a different story, particularly in London. Rental growth among new lets has fallen from 5.7%
 to 5.2% nationally over the last month, dragged down especially due to London registering a negative reading (-0.4%) for the first time since May 2021. Despite this, RICS (Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors) survey data shows a positive net
 balance of respondents who expect rents to rise in the coming months, including in London.<a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/proposed-reforms-to-the-national-planning-policy-framework-and-other-changes-to-the-planning-system/proposed-reforms-to-the-national-planning-policy-framework-and-other-changes-to-the-planning-system"></a>
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House prices up
Rightmove figures show an increase in activity in July, with the number of sales agreed up 15% on the same period a year ago. The Land Registry House Price Index remains unchanged, with annual growth of 2.7% in June &ndash; the fourth consecutive month
 with rising prices. Nationwide and Halifax indices similarly show growth of more than 2% annually. 
Investor activity 
The Living sector continues to draw investment. The latest JLL figures show investment in Living account for 30% of total real estate investment in H1 2024. The build to rent sector continues to grow, with the number of operational units rising 24% in
 Q2 2024 compared with the same period in 2023.
But the multifamily sector faces many similar challenges to new homes, with high debt cost, increasing regulation and uncertainty over build costs impacting activity in the sector. As a result, the number of units in the pipeline (planning approved or
 under construction) dropping 12% annually in Q2. 
As many of the challenges facing the multifamily sector unwind (a little), investment in single family has continued apace. UK single family investment topped &pound;1.5 billion in the first half of 2024, accounting for more than half of total build to
 rent investment in H1, with the second quarter this year seeing record single family investment of &pound;826 million. To read more <a href="https://www.jll.co.uk/en/views/uk-multifamily-pipeline-slows-down-amid-surge-in-single-family-housing">Click here.</a>
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&nbsp;

Residential Roundup - 16 August

On the face of it the July inflation figures could give cause for concern, with CPI (Consumer Prices Index) rising for the first time this year, from the 2% Bank of England target in June to 2.2% in July.

On the face of it the July inflation figures could give cause for concern, with CPI (Consumer Prices Index) rising for the first time this year, from the 2% Bank of England target in June to 2.2% in July. But dig a little deeper and there is more positivity in the numbers. Forecasters expect inflation to hover somewhere between 2% and 2.75% for the rest of the year, and the July figure is lower than the 2.4% the Bank predicted.The outlook is more positive for services inflation, too (an indicator that has been watched closely by rate setters on the Monetary Policy Committee) with the July figure of 5.2% down from 5.7% in June and lower than the forecast of 5.6%. Will that be enough to convince the&nbsp;MPC&nbsp;to cut rates further when they meet next month? So far, the markets are doubtful, but further cuts later in the year remain on the cards.UK unemployment fell to 4.2% in July, again below the Bank of England&rsquo;s forecast of 4.4%. Total earnings, including bonuses, rose 4.5% in the latest three-month period. This is the lowest figure since November 2021 but still higher than the Bank would like, throwing more cold water on the likelihood of a September rate cut. Total pay in the private sector was up 5%, down from 5.6% previously.

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Private outdoor space is now one of the biggest requirements for buyers looking for their new home, in London it is quite rare to have a garden, but terraces offer a fantastic alternative. Whether you're in the heart of central London or in the suburbs, a terrace can provide outdoor space city views and a unique space for relaxation and entertainment. When the sun is out a terrace can provide the perfect low maintenance outdoor space you might be looking for.<img style="text-align:center;padding-top:5%;" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1723610540/resi/gb/cms/News/Images/jll-st-marychurch-street.jpg" />St Marychurch Street, SE16 &pound;1,675,000 A stunning duplex penthouse in the centre of Rotherhithe village, with a leafy roof terrace that feels like a little sanctuary in this corner of London, and boasts views of the city
 in every direction.
 <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/sale-penthouse/london-se16-4hw-p154024" target="_blank">Explore this property</a>
<img style="text-align:center;padding-top:5%;" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1723610540/resi/gb/cms/News/Images/jll-dundee-wharf.jpg" />Dundee Wharf, E14 &pound;1,999,999 Spread across the entire 10th floor is this beautiful waterside penthouse, a spiral staircase leads up to the private roof terrace with sweeping river views of many of London&rsquo;s iconic
 landmarks.
 <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/sale-penthouse/london-e14-8ax-p151374" target="_blank">Explore this property</a>
<img style="text-align:center;padding-top:5%;" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1723614301/resi/gb/cms/News/Images/jll-one-thames-quay-new.jpg" />One Thames Quay, E14 Prices from &pound;595,000 An exceptional selection of stylish one, two and three bedroom apartments across a 48-storey tower. Every apartment offers panoramic riverside views across the London skyline.
 <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/sale-development/one-thames-quay/london-a0o8w00000j3cxguar" target="_blank">Explore this property</a>
<img style="text-align:center;padding-top:5%;" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1723610545/resi/gb/cms/News/Images/jll-chiswick-green.jpg" />Chiswick Green, Chiswick W4 Prices from &pound;585,000 A contemporary collection of one, two and three bedroom apartments, penthouses and townhouses arranged across four buildings. Every home benefits from private balconies
 or terraces and communal roof terraces.
 <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/sale-development/chiswick-green/london-a0o1i00000apzvzuan" target="_blank">Explore this property</a>
<img style="text-align:center;padding-top:5%;" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1723614198/resi/gb/cms/News/Images/jll-battersea-powerstation-new.jpg" />Battersea Power Station, Nine Elms SW11 Prices from &pound;547,000 A collection of one and two bedroom apartments on Electric Boulevard at Battersea Power Station. Residents benefit from the communal Battersea roof gardens,
 with dramatic views of London&rsquo;s skyline to both the east and the west.
 <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/sale-terraced/london-se10-8qt-p151226" target="_blank">Explore this property</a>

The best terraces in London

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From its rich history and stunning architecture to its excellent transport links and top-rated schools, Greenwich is quickly becoming one of the most popular areas in Zone 2. Whether you're a history enthusiast, a nature lover, or simply seeking a peaceful and family-friendly community, Greenwich has it all.
<h2>The appeal of Greenwich</h2>
Greenwich boasts an array of landmarks that attract visitors from around the world, from the Royal Observatory and the stunning Cutty Sark, to the iconic Greenwich Market, where locals and visitors alike can explore stalls offering everything from artisanal crafts to delicious street food.
One of the most appealing aspects of living in Greenwich is its strong sense of community that prides itself on its inclusivity and diversity. The area has a friendly and welcoming atmosphere, with residents actively participating in community events and initiatives.
<h2>The property market in Greenwich</h2>
The area offers a diverse range of properties to suit various preferences and budgets, whether you are looking for a charming Victorian terrace or a modern apartment with stunning river views, you can find it in Greenwich.
In addition to the established areas, there are also up-and-coming neighbourhoods in Greenwich that are worth considering. These areas may offer more affordable options or have potential for future growth. These neighbourhoods often attract young professionals and families looking for a vibrant community atmosphere.
<h2>Transport links</h2>
Greenwich offers excellent transport links that make it a convenient and accessible place to live. Public transport options are diverse and well-connected, the area is served by several bus routes, the Greenwich DLR station provides quick and efficient connections to other parts of London, including Canary Wharf and the City of London, and the North Greenwich Underground station on the Jubilee Line offers direct access to the West End and other major destinations.
<h2>Schools and Education</h2>
Greenwich is popular with families with school-age children, the borough offers a wide range of top-rated schools that provide quality education and a nurturing environment for students.
Greenwich boasts several top-rated schools that consistently achieve outstanding academic results, these schools are known for their high standards of teaching and their commitment to providing a well-rounded education. Whether you're looking for primary, secondary, or sixth form education, Greenwich has a variety of options to suit every child's needs.
<h2>Lifestyle and Leisure</h2>
Whether you're a nature lover, a food enthusiast, or a sports enthusiast, this charming borough has something for everyone. One of the highlights of living in Greenwich is the abundance of parks and green spaces. With its stunning views of the River Thames, Greenwich Park is a popular spot for residents to relax, go for a jog, or enjoy a picnic with friends and family.
When it comes to dining and entertainment, Greenwich has a diverse selection of options to tantalise your taste buds. The borough boasts an array of restaurants, cafes, and bars, where you can enjoy a delightful meal or unwind with a drink.
The area is known for its world-class venue; the O2 Arena, which hosts a wide range of events, including concerts and sporting competitions. If you prefer to participate in sports yourself, Greenwich has a wealth of options, from tennis courts and golf courses to swimming pools and fitness centres, there are ample opportunities to stay active and lead a healthy lifestyle.
<h2>Explore our top properties in Greenwich</h2>
<img style="text-align:center;padding-top:5%;" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1723092310/resi/gb/cms/News/Images/jll-west-grove.jpg" />
West Grove £4,500,000 A five-story, six bedroom luxury residence in the vibrant heart of West Greenwich.
 <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/sale-terraced/london-se10-8qt-p151226" target="_blank">Explore this property</a>

<img style="text-align:center;padding-top:5%;" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1723089759/resi/gb/cms/News/Images/jll-greenwich-peninsula.jpg" />
Greenwich Peninsula £487,499 - £1,799,999 A collection of studio, one, two and three bedroom new build apartments. <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/sale-development/greenwich-peninsula/london-a0o1i000001hu7ouaq" target="_blank">Explore this property</a>

<img style="text-align:center;padding-top:5%;" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1723089759/resi/gb/cms/News/Images/jll-admirals-gate.jpg" />
Admirals Gate £5,000 per month A stunning five bedroom, three-storey family house located in West Greenwich. <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/rent-semi-detached/london-se10-8jx-p154161" target="_blank">Explore this property</a>

<img style="text-align:center;padding-top:5%;" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1723089761/resi/gb/cms/News/Images/jll-prime-point.png" />
Prime Point Prices from £385,000 Coming soon – an exciting new residential development of one, two and three bedroom apartments on Greenwich Peninsula. <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/sale-development/prime-point/london-a0o8w00000lsqviuad" target="_blank">Explore this property</a>

<img style="text-align:center;padding-top:5%;" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1723089764/resi/gb/cms/News/Images/jll-pelton-road.jpg" />
Pelton Road £700,000 Formerly an old sweet shop, now a charming two-bedroom Victorian terraced home in East Greenwich. <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/sale-terraced/london-se10-9ah-p150671" target="_blank">Explore this property</a>

Why to live in Greenwich, London: Top Reasons

Find out why to live in Greenwich, London. Explore its vibrant community, parks, and stunning river views.

Find out why to live in Greenwich, London. Explore its vibrant community, parks, and stunning river views.

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