JLL Residential

North West house prices to rise 18.1% in next five years, says JLL

Manchester, 2nd February 2017. Felicity Young, +44 (0)20 7087 5108

House prices in the North West will increase by 18.1 per cent in the next five years according to property advisor JLL, with growth in the region outpacing the rest of the UK in 2017.

The research, from its new Northern England report, was presented at a Manchester Residential Predictions Seminar in the city centre this morning.

According to the report, the property market in key Northern Powerhouse cities will be buoyed by high demand and low supply – resulting in growth in both rents and capital values, despite UK-wide uncertainty.

In Manchester, JLL is predicting that capital values in the city will grow by 28.2 per cent in the next five years. The average two-bed apartment in the city, which now fetches £230,000, will cost £246,000 by the end of 2017 alone – a seven per cent increase. Rents in the city are forecast to increase by 20.5 per cent by 2021.

The data follows a strong year for Manchester’s residential sector in 2016, during which capital values grew by 15 per cent. Rental demand in the city was also highlighted last year when Manchester’s first PRS development, LaSalle Investment Management’s Greengate scheme, was let 70 per cent in just eight weeks.

JLL expects Build to Rent developments will soon be the mainstay of new schemes in Manchester and the city will be among the first choices for international investors targeting the UK’s Build to Rent sector.

In Liverpool, where two thirds of homes in the city centre are privately rented and half the population are young professionals, rents are set to continue to grow 17.6 per cent over the next five years. Meanwhile capital values in the city centre, due to grow by 22.8 per cent in the same period, will outperform many other major regional city centres and Greater London (19.2 per cent).

Leeds is set to see the largest increase in rents of any city in the UK over the next five years – with growth reaching 22.2 per cent.
Manchester Liverpool Leeds
2016 house price growth 15.0 per cent 2016 house price growth 6.7 per cent 2016 house price growth 4.2 per cent
2017 house price growth forecast 7.0 per cent 2017 house price growth forecast 4.5 per cent 2017 house price growth forecast 2.0 per cent
2016 rental growth 6.9 per cent 2016 rental growth 10.3 per cent 2016 rental growth 1.9 per cent
2017 rental growth forecast 3.0 per cent 2017 rental growth forecast 2.5 per cent 2017 rental growth forecast 5.0 per cent
Stephen Hogg, head of North West residential at JLL, said: "Our five-year forecast points to the continued strength of the residential sector in the Northern Powerhouse. Manchester now offers some of the best returns in the UK and is at the forefront of the build-to-rent market in the UK regions.

"What’s more, growth in Liverpool, in part led by regeneration schemes like Peel Group’s £5.5bn Liverpool Waters development and the new £1bn knowledge quarter, is driving further interest from institutional investors. With values set to show significant growth, it also offers a good alternative for private investors given the lower entry capital required and the large number of renters in the city."

According to JLL, Manchester, Liverpool and Leeds will need an extra 3,300, 2,000 and 2,200 new homes every year respectively. This is underpinned by forecast GDP increases in the Northern Powerhouse’s major cities driven by growth in sectors including professional services, transport and construction.

Adam Challis, head of UK residential research at JLL, said: "Early indications suggest that political and economic uncertainty since the EU referendum vote has had a minimal impact on the residential markets across the North. While there has been a marginal slowdown in transactions and mild easing in prices, in markets where there’s still a significant undersupply we’re set to see growth over the next five years and the North West in particular is a prime example of this."