Investor Guide | Watford

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UK economic outlook improvingWith economic growth across the UK coming in broadly above expectation so far this year, a raft of forecasters have begun upgrading their outlook for growth. Consensus forecasts now expect the UK economy will grow by 1.0% this year (they were at 0.6%
 at the start of 2024). The Bank of America and the British Chamber of Commerce are the latest to upgrade, both now expecting growth of 1.1% in 2024. Before we get too excited, these aren&rsquo;t big numbers and still mean the UK lags many of our mainland
 European neighbours. However, a brighter picture will embolden investors as many of the other key economic and housing market indicators turn positive in H2.&nbsp;<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1725625974/resi/gb/Articles/Images/RR-6-Sept-1.jpg" />More favourable ratesFollowing the Bank of England&rsquo;s August rate cut and more competitive five-year interbank lending rates (SONIA) emerging we&rsquo;ve seen a flurry of more competitive mortgage rates enter the market.&nbsp; The latest being a five-year fix at sub
 3.8%. While these rates would still make your average 2020 borrower wince, in the &lsquo;new normal&rsquo; a sub 4% rate appears to be sufficient for the wheels of the mortgaged housing market to begin turning more freely again. &nbsp;It's still a little early for the latest mortgage approval figures to fully reflect the impact of lower rates and certainly many have had other things on their mind over the summer break. But the July approval figures do appear to be showing the early
 signs of an uptick in activity. The latest figures from the Bank of England showing July approvals rose to 62,000, the highest since September 2022. More stock entering the marketRightmove reported an uptick in listings this summer, with July recording an 11% annual increase in stock reaching the market for sale. Rate cuts in early August added further to vendors propensity to list, with listings to mid-month in August up 19%
 on the same period a year earlier. Prospective buyers are returning to the market. Here at JLL the number of viewings in July and August are up 48% compared with the same period a year ago. Prices are rising too, with Nationwide reporting prices up 2.4% annually in August, having risen
 on an annual basis every month since February.Transactions riseTransaction data is always a lagging indicator. With lengthy conveyancing delays also meaning the time between a buyer committing to purchase and the sale completing often stretching to more than three months. However, even accounting for these delays
 we are starting to see the number of homes changing hands edge up. The latest government figures showing just shy of 91,000 seasonally adjusted transactions in July, up 7% on July 2023.Rents The latest new lets figures from Homelet show a disparity between rental growth nationally. London, often the most reactive market, has seen annual rental growth of just above flat this month at 0.1% (albeit up 2.2% on last month). Whereas some regional
 markets are still seeing rents rise by up to 9.4% (East of England).Conflicting reports on landlords selling upRightmove data shows an increase in listings of homes for sale which have been previously let on the portal.&nbsp; With 18% of homes currently on the market nationally previously listed to let, up from 8% in 2010 and 14% over the last five years. This
 rises to 29% in London, although it is worth noting that around 30% of households in London rent privately, far higher than in other regions. There are a few reasons homes are being listed. Obviously, debt costs for leveraged buy-to-let investors have risen, in addition to the removal of tax breaks on mortgage interest payments. &nbsp;Uncertainty around capital gains and inheritance tax post
 budget alongside the expected return of the 2030 EPC C obligation will also be impacting investors&rsquo; choices. However, this too could be a sign of a stronger sales market, with reluctant landlords who in a more challenging market have looked
 to rent rather than sell simply returning to the market to test the water. &nbsp;
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1725625974/resi/gb/Articles/Images/RR-6-Sept-2.jpg" />New developmentDelivering more homes was one of the key pledges of the Labour manifesto, with all regions aside from London set to see their housing targets increase (even London&rsquo;s new targets still expected to be more than double recent delivery). For more on what this means at a local level <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/insights/research/jll-new-housing-targets-analysis-targets-by-numbers-august-2024">click here.</a>But the latest starts and completions figures for Q1 demonstrate the scale of the task ahead. The Q1 2024 figures, released at the end of August show there were 22,310 house building starts (seasonally adjusted) in England, a 11% increase compared with the previous quarter, but 41% down on the same quarter of 2023.&nbsp; The introduction of new building regulations just over a year ago caused starts to spike in Q2 2023 at almost 67,000. This meant schemes which would under normally (regulatory) circumstances have been delivered later were pulled forward.&nbsp; As a result, falls in more recent quarters could be overstated, but in any case, we&rsquo;ll need to see a reversal of this trend soon to get near the 1.5 million homes target within this parliament. In case you missed it&hellip;.Our latest Big Six Residential Development Report, <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/insights/research/big-six-residential-development-report-summer-2024">Click here to read more.</a>

Residential Roundup – 6 September

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Looking closely at the latest numbers to see what impact the new government and more importantly the August rate cut are having on the market.

Regardless of your age September has a distinct back to school feel. Those of us ditching the beach bag for the briefcase will be looking closely at the latest numbers to see what impact the new government and more importantly the August rate cut are having on the market. Despite the usual summer slowdown making it a bit more difficult to tell, there are signs that the market is waking up.

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Housebuilding was a key element of the Labour party election campaign. Angela Rayner announcing plans to build 1.5 million homes over the next five years. Since the election Labour have announced a new methodology to calculate housing need and set new housing targets for local authorities across England. These will exceed original housing targets set by the Conservatives in 2017 of 300,000 homes per annum (scrapped in 2022), delivering 370,000 homes per annum across England, but how do the new targets differ?Target by numbers: increase from old target to newApplying the new measure of housing need means most local authorities across England (59%) could see their housing target more than double. The housing target for 32% of local authorities has increased by up to 50% from the old target, while an additional
 27% of local authorities have seen an increase in their target by 51-100%.17.6% of local authorities across England have seen their housing targets decrease under the new methodology, most of which are in Greater London. It&rsquo;s worth noting here that the removal of the Urban Uplift Policy, originally created to direct housing
 growth to the twenty largest urban areas, has meant other large cities and towns, like Manchester, have also seen a reduction. The removal of the policy now means that housing targets are more evenly distributed across England, with some smaller towns
 and rural areas now targeted with significant increases in housebuilding.More rural areas such as Tamworth in Staffordshire and Pendle in Lancashire have seen an increase in their targets of 261% and 209% respectively, some of the largest percentage increases across England. This equates to 321 and 258 additional new homes
 now required.In terms of actual numbers, Birmingham has the largest housing target of 4,974 new homes. But due to the new methodology and the removal of the urban uplift this new target is 31% lower than the old target of 7,174 new homes. Redcar and Cleveland has
 experienced the largest increase under the new methodology (+1,338%) an increase from just 45 new homes, to 642.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1725013073/resi/gb/cms/News/Images/jll-new-housing-targets-analysis-picture1.png" /><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1725013076/resi/gb/cms/News/Images/jll-new-housing-targets-analysis-picture2.png" /><h2>Targets by numbers: New target vs net additions</h2>But even with the new approach London still accounts for 22% of housing targets across England, the highest of all regions. In numerical terms, the largest housing targets outside of London are seen across the South East and East of England regions. A
 housing target of 40,837 across the South East will account for 17% of the total target across England. So how do these targets compare against previous housing delivery?The map above compares London boroughs new housing targets against historical average annual net additions (2020/2021 &ndash; 2022/2023). There are six boroughs across London where new housing targets exceed average annual net additions by more than five
 times. These include Bromley, Camden, Kensington and Chelsea, Lewisham, Redbridge, and Richmond.Comparing targets with historical net additions shows areas across the Midlands have historically been closer to reaching housing targets. On average since 2020/2021, the East Midlands region has hit 83% of its housing target, followed by the North West
 (75%) and the West Midlands (71%).A handful of areas across England have a significant amount of work to do over the next five years if they are to meet housing targets. Portsmouth in the South East will need to increase housing delivery by 8.3 times the current rate if it is to meet
 its target of 1,098 homes per annum. On average since 2021/2022 it delivered just 12% of the proposed target.Just 32 local authorities have met housing targets each year since 2020/2021. Half of these areas now have a smaller housing target, or a small increase of 0-50%, compared to historic targets.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1725013079/resi/gb/cms/News/Images/jll-new-housing-targets-analysis-picture3.png" /><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1725013077/resi/gb/cms/News/Images/jll-new-housing-targets-analysis-picture4.png" /><h2>Targets by numbers: Total value of new homes</h2>If we built all the 370,000 homes target the total value of new homes built could be as much as &pound;148bn across England. London alone could see the total value of homes completed top &pound;55bn. Outside London, the South East of England will see
 the largest total value from new homes if targets are met (&pound;30bn).The total value of new homes across the top 20 local authorities (in terms of housing target) will exceed &pound;20bn (excluding London). The top 20 have been defined as the local authorities with the largest housing targets. A significant proportion
 of these are located across the Midlands or the North of England, including Birmingham, Manchester, most areas in Yorkshire and County Durham.Average house prices are typically higher in southern areas of England, therefore we can expect higher total value from new homes development in these areas. Despite having the sixth highest housing target across England, average house prices in Buckinghamshire
 of &pound;558,740 in 2024 mean the area is set to record &pound;2.3bn total value in new homes if the housing target of 4,122 is met. This is the highest total value across England.Cornwall unitary authority has the second largest housing target of 4,454 new homes. The undersupply and affordability of homes across Cornwall has been cited as critical for many years now. Homes in the area, particularly along the coast, have been bought
 up by those seeking a holiday home or holiday let. This, coupled with planning and development constraints within Cornwall National Landscape areas, means little stock available for permanent residents, particularly affordable homes.The housing target across Cornwall has increased by 65%, from 2,707 to 4,454. By comparison, annual net additions in Cornwall have averaged 2,681. This means they will need to increase by 1.6 times the current build rate to meet new targets. With an average
 house price of &pound;344,370 (year to date 2024), this would assume a total value of &pound;1.53bn in new stock.<h2>Table 1: Total value of new homes (proposed to be built), by region</h2><style>td,
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<div style="overflow-x:auto;" align="center"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="1" align="left"><tbody><tr class="red"><th scope="col">Region</th><th scope="col">Number of homes &ndash; new methodology</th><th scope="col">Total value of new homes (&pound;bn)</th></tr><tr><td>London</td><td>80,693</td><td>&pound;55.7</td></tr><tr><td>South East England</td><td>69,060</td><td>&pound;30.3</td></tr><tr><td>East of England</td><td>44,858</td><td>&pound;14.5bn</td></tr><tr><td>South West England</td><td>40,343</td><td>&pound;14.2bn</td></tr><tr><td>North West England</td><td>37,817</td><td>&pound;9.1bn</td></tr><tr><td>West Midlands</td><td>31,754</td><td>&pound;8.7bn</td></tr><tr><td>Yorkshire and the Humber</td><td>27,433</td><td>&pound;6.3bn</td></tr><tr><td>East Midlands</td><td>27,382</td><td>&pound;7.1bn</td></tr><tr><td>North East England</td><td>12,202</td><td>&pound;2.2bn</td></tr><tr><th scope="col">Grand Total</th><th scope="col">371,541</th><th scope="col">&pound;148.1bn</th></tr></tbody></table></div><img style="padding-top:2%;" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1725013076/resi/gb/cms/News/Images/jll-new-housing-targets-analysis-picture5.png" /><h2>JLL Research | August 2024</h2>JLL is a leading global professional services firm specialising in real estate and investment management, with $16.6bn annual revenue in 2020, operations in over 80 countries and a global workforce of over 90,000. With over 7,000 employees and 15 offices
 in the UK, we support our investor, developer, and occupier clients at every stage of the property lifecycle across both commercial and residential asset classes. This includes land purchase, access to capital, planning, development advisory, leasing,
 building management and sales.JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare
 and student housing.Disclaimer: &copy; 2024 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.

JLL New Housing Targets Analysis – Targets by numbers - August 2024

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GDP rising
The UK economy grew by 0.6% in the three months to June, following a 0.7% increase in Q1. The services sector was the key driver behind growth, rising 0.8%, with both manufacturing and construction posting a marginal fall of 0.1% (although worth remembering
 this was pre-election and pre-rate cut). Annually, this means real GDP is estimated to have risen 0.9%. There is good news on per capita GDP growth, too, rising for the second quarter running, albeit still down 0.9% on pre-pandemic highs. 
What does this mean for my mortgage? 
The Bank of England&rsquo;s rate cut has started to feed through into the mortgage markets. Five-year fixes for those with healthy deposits are now available at below 3.9%, with best-buy two-year equivalents sitting at circa 4.3%.
More activity? 
The latest data from the S&amp;P Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) suggests activity in the construction sector continues to increase. Its latest release shows activity rising for the fifth consecutive month in July. More activity has also led to increases
 in recruitment, with firms reporting a rise in staffing levels for the third consecutive month. Housebuilding, which had lagged the commercial sector, has now also entered growth territory. 
Rental Market
Overall rental growth remains high and unchanged at 8.6%, according to the latest figures from the ONS (Office for National Statistics), but new lets data tells a different story, particularly in London. Rental growth among new lets has fallen from 5.7%
 to 5.2% nationally over the last month, dragged down especially due to London registering a negative reading (-0.4%) for the first time since May 2021. Despite this, RICS (Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors) survey data shows a positive net
 balance of respondents who expect rents to rise in the coming months, including in London.<a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/proposed-reforms-to-the-national-planning-policy-framework-and-other-changes-to-the-planning-system/proposed-reforms-to-the-national-planning-policy-framework-and-other-changes-to-the-planning-system"></a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1723790127/resi/gb/Articles/Images/RR-16-Aug-2.jpg" />
House prices up
Rightmove figures show an increase in activity in July, with the number of sales agreed up 15% on the same period a year ago. The Land Registry House Price Index remains unchanged, with annual growth of 2.7% in June &ndash; the fourth consecutive month
 with rising prices. Nationwide and Halifax indices similarly show growth of more than 2% annually. 
Investor activity 
The Living sector continues to draw investment. The latest JLL figures show investment in Living account for 30% of total real estate investment in H1 2024. The build to rent sector continues to grow, with the number of operational units rising 24% in
 Q2 2024 compared with the same period in 2023.
But the multifamily sector faces many similar challenges to new homes, with high debt cost, increasing regulation and uncertainty over build costs impacting activity in the sector. As a result, the number of units in the pipeline (planning approved or
 under construction) dropping 12% annually in Q2. 
As many of the challenges facing the multifamily sector unwind (a little), investment in single family has continued apace. UK single family investment topped &pound;1.5 billion in the first half of 2024, accounting for more than half of total build to
 rent investment in H1, with the second quarter this year seeing record single family investment of &pound;826 million. To read more <a href="https://www.jll.co.uk/en/views/uk-multifamily-pipeline-slows-down-amid-surge-in-single-family-housing">Click here.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1723790127/resi/gb/Articles/Images/RR-16-Aug-3.jpg" />
&nbsp;

Residential Roundup - 16 August

On the face of it the July inflation figures could give cause for concern, with CPI (Consumer Prices Index) rising for the first time this year, from the 2% Bank of England target in June to 2.2% in July.

On the face of it the July inflation figures could give cause for concern, with CPI (Consumer Prices Index) rising for the first time this year, from the 2% Bank of England target in June to 2.2% in July. But dig a little deeper and there is more positivity in the numbers. Forecasters expect inflation to hover somewhere between 2% and 2.75% for the rest of the year, and the July figure is lower than the 2.4% the Bank predicted.The outlook is more positive for services inflation, too (an indicator that has been watched closely by rate setters on the Monetary Policy Committee) with the July figure of 5.2% down from 5.7% in June and lower than the forecast of 5.6%. Will that be enough to convince the&nbsp;MPC&nbsp;to cut rates further when they meet next month? So far, the markets are doubtful, but further cuts later in the year remain on the cards.UK unemployment fell to 4.2% in July, again below the Bank of England&rsquo;s forecast of 4.4%. Total earnings, including bonuses, rose 4.5% in the latest three-month period. This is the lowest figure since November 2021 but still higher than the Bank would like, throwing more cold water on the likelihood of a September rate cut. Total pay in the private sector was up 5%, down from 5.6% previously.

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The JLL Big Six Residential Development Report compares activity, prices, and rents across six UK cities outside London: Birmingham, Bristol, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Leeds and Manchester. This report incorporates data from the JLL UK Cities index, comparing
 changes in prices and rents across mainstream and prime developments in each city.In the sales market, higher rates, both interest and mortgage, have continued to put pressure on both development viability and buyers&rsquo; budgets. We are beginning to see this reflected in annual price growth across the Big Six cities, with growth
 across the cities remaining flat or marginal over the past year.The rental market across the Big Six cities has remained robust, albeit growth has cooled significantly from double digit highs in H1 2023. There is continued demand for city centre living, particularly from young professionals seeking the lifestyle benefits
 and vibrancy of being centrally located.Prime markets across the Big Six have generally outperformed both the mainstream sales and rental markets, with new prime stock continuing to push quality and amenity provision.<a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1725291585/resi/gb/Articles/PDFs/Big_Six_Residential_Development_Report_-_H1_2024.pdf" target="_blank"><button class="Button primary" style="text-align:center;">Click here to read more</button></a>

Big Six Residential Development Report - Summer 2024

Big Six Residential Development Report

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Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL), together with its subsidiaries and affiliates, is a leading global provider of real estate and investment management services. We take our responsibility to protect the personal information provided to us seriously.
Generally the personal information we collect from you are for the purposes of dealing with your enquiry.
We endeavor to keep your personal information secure with appropriate level of security and keep for as long as we need it for legitimate business or legal reasons. We will then delete it safely and securely. For more information about how JLL processes your personal data, please view our <a href="https://www.jll.co.uk/en/privacy-statement" target="_blank">privacy statement</a>.

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PRIVACY NOTICE
Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL), together with its subsidiaries and affiliates, is a leading global provider of real estate and investment management services. We take our responsibility to protect the personal information provided to us seriously.
Generally the personal information we collect from you are for the purposes of dealing with your enquiry.
We endeavor to keep your personal information secure with appropriate level of security and keep for as long as we need it for legitimate business or legal reasons. We will then delete it safely and securely. For more information about how JLL processes your personal data, please view our&nbsp;<a href="https://www.jll.co.uk/en/privacy-statement" target="_blank">privacy statement</a>.

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