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Edinburgh office

Situated in the centre of Edinburgh, our team provides bespoke consultancy covering Residential Investment, Valuation, Land Agency, Healthcare, Affordable Housing, Multifamily (Build to Rent), in addition to PRS Lettings and Managment services. The expertise we offer across these areas will help you get the most out of your ambitions.

Restrictions lift but rising rates could temper demand amongst some potential buyers The Bank of England continues to walk a challenging tightrope, one which some say it stepped onto too late. Global economies continue to struggle with rising inflation, a combination of demand returning following the lifting of covid restrictions alongside the implications on food and fuel costs following the war in Ukraine. The Bank of England alongside many global banks is responding by increasing rates in an attempt to counter inflation. &nbsp;For borrowers, the first week of August provided mixed news. On the first the Bank scrapped the requirement for lenders to impose additional affordability tests on borrowers, announced back in June. But days later, the Bank followed this with further increases in the base rate. It has to be said this wasn&rsquo;t a complete surprise, as those in the market were preparing themselves for the prospect of further rises this summer.&nbsp;On 4th August the Bank announced the first half point rise in 27 years.&nbsp; MPC members voted 8-1 in favour of increasing the base rate to 1.75%<img alt="" src="https://cms-resi.eu.jll.com/images/default-source/agency/microsoftteams-image-(2).png?Status=Master&amp;sfvrsn=8b3f4186_1" sf-size="100" />Of course, in the longer term the intention of this rate rise is to curb inflation, but in the short-term households are facing significant increases in the cost of living driven by food and fuel alongside wage rises which in many cases are not keeping pace with household expenditure. &nbsp;For mortgaged owner occupiers the proliferation of fixed rates loans will add some comfort. In Q1 2022 82% of outstanding mortgage debt was on fixed rates, up from less than a third a decade earlier. But for those looking to buy or re-mortgage recent rate rises will mean they pay more. Prior to the August interest rate rise the effective mortgage rate hit 2.15% at the end of June. Up from a low of 1.50% at the end of November 2021 and back to levels last seen in November 2016.&nbsp;But there hasn&rsquo;t been a seismic shift for many borrowers coming out of longer-term fixed rates, who would not have benefited from the record low rates in 2021. Effective rates for those coming out of a five-year fix in June 2022 (2.15%) only marginally higher than in June 2017 (2.05%). Albeit those exiting fixed rates in the coming months will experience a wider gap following the 4th August announcement.<img alt="" src="https://cms-resi.eu.jll.com/images/default-source/agency/microsoftteams-image-(1).png?Status=Master&amp;sfvrsn=d71d87ba_1" sf-size="100" /> Lifting restrictionsEarlier in the same week, on 1st August, the Bank removed the requirement for lenders to impose an affordability test, which required lenders to assess whether potential borrowers would be able to afford an interest rate hike equivalent to 3%. Which as interest rates rise would have meant much tighter affordability criteria for borrowers.The Loan to Income (LTI) threshold, the more meaningful measure for most borrowers remains.&nbsp; With lenders limited on the number of loans they can issue at more than 4.5X income.&nbsp;What will this mean for the housing market?In recent months the UK housing market has continued to defy gravity. Significant increases in energy costs and rising inflation have been with us for some time now, yet house prices have so far appeared immune to rising costs elsewhere in the economy.&nbsp; The latest figures from the Nationwide Index show prices nationally rose 11% in June 2022, with regional growth of between 6.0% in London and 14.7% in South West. There are some signs that levels of demand are slowing, but few are reporting price falls and agents continue to see demand outstripping supply.It would be na&iuml;ve to assume rising interest rates will not have some impact on the market. But in the short term it is possible that we will not see as significant an impact as one might expect.&nbsp;Not all households are being impacted equally.&nbsp; Research by the Institute of Fiscal Studies suggested the poorest 10% of households experienced CPI inflation three percentage points higher than the richest 10%, due in part to these households spending a higher proportion of their income on energy and food. It is likely that those households where rising living costs bite the hardest are either renting their homes or are not in a position to move.&nbsp;Indeed, this could mean we see prices rise further as more affluent households with a larger financial buffer, who usually buy more expensive properties, make up a higher proportion of transacting households.&nbsp;Where we could see rising costs (living and debt financing) impact most significantly is on transaction volumes. But this too is far from certain, with some households potentially looking to purchase now, anticipating further rate rises or looking to take advantage of schemes like Help to Buy. It is also important to remember that 30% of purchases nationally were cash.Looking aheadOver the next six months we expect the sustained double-digit growth in prices we&rsquo;ve experienced so far in 2022 will recede as the market settles. But it is important to state that this is expected to be a slowing of growth not a fall in prices.&nbsp;While some households will be deterred from moving due to higher rates, others will be keen to lock in at current (albeit higher) rates rather than risk further rate rises in the months to come.&nbsp; The ending of the government backed Help to Buy scheme in March 2023 also means that we could see a flurry of deals from first time buyers keen to take advantage of the scheme before it closes.&nbsp;In the longer-term higher interest rates will of course be a barrier to some households. This combined with the end of Help to Buy will undoubtedly impact on first time buyer&rsquo;s ability to enter the market.&nbsp; With higher borrowing costs, rises in the cost of living and recent house price appreciation all acting as barriers.&nbsp; Conversely, we expect existing owner occupiers, particularly those buying with cash will increase as a proportion of sales.Marcus Dixon &ndash; Director of Residential Research at JLL comments:&ldquo;The UK is not alone in experiencing high rates of inflation, with the Bank of England reacting in the same way as many global banks in imposing multiple rate rises. For households this comes at a difficult time as the cost-of-living squeeze erodes households disposable incomes and adds a layer of uncertainty on future outgoings.&nbsp;&ldquo;For the housing market the removal of the affordability stress test will add some wriggle room for purchasers and lenders alike, but we expect rate rises alongside and imbalance between wage rises and living costs will combine to deter activity amongst first time buyers and more financially exposed home movers.&rdquo;&nbsp;&nbsp; About JLL | August 2022JLL is a leading global professional services firm specialising in real estate and investment management, with $16.6bn annual revenue in 2020, operations in over 80 countries and a global workforce of over 90,000.&nbsp; With over 7,000 employees and 15 offices in the UK, we support our investor, developer and occupier clients at every stage of the property lifecycle across both commercial and residential asset classes. This includes land purchase, access to capital, planning, development advisory, leasing, building management and sales.&nbsp;JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare and student housing.&nbsp; Disclaimer: &copy; 2022 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.

JLL – Interest rates, mortgages, and the impact on house prices

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10 years after hosting the 2012 Summer Olympic Games, Stratford has outperformed London in both house price and rental growth, creating a new neighbourhood that has attracted a new wave of younger residents. In July 2005, London won the race to host the Summer Olympic Games. Stratford was earmarked as the core venue for the Games, with the area able to capitalise on the existing regeneration programme that had already been approved in 2004.Stratford was set to become the &ldquo;Capital of the East&rdquo;.A decade on, JLL have undertaken new research to assess how Stratford has performed since the games.<img alt="" src="https://cms-resi.eu.jll.com/images/default-source/agency/stratford1ed83a06f-113f-4237-bf93-bf5967e1f4ac.jpg?Status=Master&amp;sfvrsn=3591f79_1" sf-size="100" />Since 2012 house prices have outperformed the wider marketThe E15 postcode covers the areas of Stratford that already existed before the Olympics. E20, a new postcode set up to cover the Olympic Park represents the part of Stratford that went through the biggest transformation during the regeneration to become the Olympic Park and Stratford City developments. Comparing E15 in isolation and Stratford as a whole (E15 &amp; E20) demonstrates the outperformance of the area applies to both existing homes and is not just down to the addition of new build properties in E20.The majority of the 2012 Olympics events were hosted in Stratford and Greater London, but five other regional towns also hosted events. There was cycling and rowing events in Swanley and Benfleet, Canoeing and rowing in Windsor and Waltham Cross and sailing in Weymouth.The decade before the London Olympic Games, Stratford house price growth of 66% underperformed Greater London&rsquo;s at 84%. Ten years on from the London Olympic games, Stratford and E15 have outperformed Greater London, recording price growth of 104% and 92% respectively, compared with 65% for Greater London. Growth in achieved prices in Stratford also outperformed the five other regional host towns. With growth ranging from 43% in Windsor and 89% in Swanley in the ten years since the Olympics<img alt="" src="https://cms-resi.eu.jll.com/images/default-source/agency/stratford20a8093b5-0ea1-49bc-a756-b29fb849d252.png?Status=Master&amp;sfvrsn=714d1bc7_1" sf-size="100" /><h2>Young professionals attracted to Stratford</h2>Stratford has become one of the most vibrant areas in London. The population has increased by 42% to 73,000 over the last 10 years largely driven by an influx of young professionals, attracted to the area&rsquo;s new residential developments, improved transport links, expansive retail and leisure offering. The number of residents aged between 25 and 34 has increased by 10 percentage points in the area over the past ten years, now representing almost a third of residents. The proportion of private renters has risen too, from 21% of households in 2012 to 32% in 2021.Average asking rents in Stratford (E15 and E20) have experienced growth of 27% since 2014, whilst the E15 postcode alone has experienced similarly strong rental growth of 24%. Comparatively, Greater London has experienced rental growth of 12% over the same period. A year before the Olympic Games, Westfield Stratford City Shopping Centre, the largest urban shopping centre in Europe, opened its doors. The &pound;2.1 billion International Quarter London project has also helped Stratford become a key business centre in London. TFL, the FCA and UNICEF have all moved to the area. Senior Research Analyst at JLL, Eroll-James Kpenou says &ldquo;Olympic games bring with them the promise of a boost to the host city, but the ongoing success of Olympic venues after the crowds have departed has often been less certain. In the case of Stratford, the Olympic games have delivered on their promise to regenerate a little-known pocket of London into a thriving neighbourhood. A decade on, house prices have outperformed Greater London whilst staying accessible to young professionals. Stratford&rsquo;s future looks bright with thousands more homes under construction or in the pipeline, the newly opened Elizabeth line improving transport links further and more cultural experiences, with the arrival of the V&amp;A East museum in 2023.&rdquo;

JLL – Stratford delivers a gold medal performance

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10 years after hosting the 2012 Summer Olympic Games, Stratford has outperformed London in both house price and rental growth.

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This month, Boris Johnson&rsquo;s resignation is vying with reports of record temperatures for the most column inches. The next Prime Minister will be left to tackle the continued cost of living crisis and rising inflation rates across
the UK. Nationally prices continue to rise, up 12.4% on April 2021, with London seeing prices rise by 7.9% over the same period. 
Inflation and interest rates
The UK CPI rose by 0.7% in May, bringing annual inflation to 9.1%. Although interest rates remain at 1.25%, it is expected that rates will continue to rise as many forecasters expect inflation to hit 11% by the end of the year. 
The mortgage markets
The Bank of England (BoE) reported that mortgage borrowing had spiked to &pound;3.2bn in May, as buyers rushed to lock in borrowing deals before rates inevitably rise again. The BoE reported average interest rates on a new mortgage have
jumped almost 50 basis point in six months and risen a further 13 basis points in May to 1.95%.
Mortgage data recently released by Twenty7Tec, highlights that green mortgages are becoming more popular with homeowners and landlords, as they are using these to escape the rising interest rates. The mortgages work by offering lower interest
rates and cash-back incentives to encourage property owners to improve the energy efficiency rating of homes. The green mortgage trend is expected to continue over the next few years as buyers try to keep costs down. 
UK economy bounce-back
Despite struggles to contain inflation in the UK, the economy grew by 0.5% in May 2022, after shrinking in both March and April. The growth was largely fuelled by both the manufacturing and construction industries, which reported month-on-month
growth of 0.9% and 1.5% respectively. Perhaps this will indicate a trend of some markets recovering after covid-19, and better managing the effects of war? 
House prices
In the UK, annual house prices have continued to grow, reaching 12.4% in the year to April 2022. In London, annual growth reached 7.9% over the same period, meanwhile the South West was the highest performing region, with annual growth
of 14.1%. 
Rents
Rightmove have reported that rents across Britain (excluding London) have reached new highs of &pound;1,126 per month, up 12% year-on-year. RICS reported that in both the UK and London, tenants demand is still far outstripping landlord
instructions, continuing to fuel prices. According to Rightmove, rental stock was down 26%, whilst demand was up 6% on last year.
Travel news
Heathrow passenger numbers increased by 4.8% in May 2022, compared with the previous month. Travel from the Middle East to Heathrow is now 2% higher than pre-pandemic levels (May 2019). 
And in case you missed it&hellip;
Nick Whitten, Head of UK and Residential Living Research, highlights three key reasons why the
<a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/insights/news/uk-set-for-continued-house-price-growth">
UK is set for continued house price growth
</a>. The retrofitting of rentals to meet the EPC requirements by the 2025 deadline could reflect a potential
<a href="https://www.jll.co.uk/en/trends-and-insights/research/retrofitting-rentals-a-500bn-opportunity">
&pound;500bn investment
</a> opportunity for institutions, and JLL release the
<a href="https://www.jll.co.uk/en/trends-and-insights/research/uk-retirement-living-rental-2022">
</a>
<a href="https://www.jll.co.uk/en/trends-and-insights/research/uk-retirement-living-rental-2022">UK Retirement Living Rental report 2022</a>, forecasting the rental market to continue to grow by a further &pound;2.65bn
over the next five years.
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Residential Market Update – July 2022

Market update july 22

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Rental growth is outpacing prices again in Q2 2022, with annual growth in rents of 14.4% in prime central London (PCL). The sales market saw lower growth in prices, up 1.4% annually.&nbsp; But with more potential buyers coming forward could we see a change in the fortunes of the sales market in the coming months? Interest from prospective buyers for prime central London homes increased this quarter, JLL recording the highest number of new PCL applicants registering in Q2 2022 since pre-pandemic, up by 63% on Q2 2021. Yet this increased demand has yet to impact prices, which remain little changed this quarter, with marginal falls on Q1 and increases of 1.4% compared with the same point a year ago. But we remain optimistic regarding the prospects for price growth in the second half of the year. Buyers in Prime Central London are less exposed to increases in living costs and interest rate rises which we anticipate will hamper growth prospects in the mainstream housing market over the coming months. And if overseas buyers return this summer as expected, alongside applicants taking the plunge to buy, we could see prices rise too.The PCL lettings market continues to see rents increase, as prospective tenants outnumber available properties. Rents rose 2% this quarter and are up 14% annually. But applicant levels are settling, with 15% fewer prospective tenants registering in Q2 this year compared with last, meaning we could see more balance between supply and demand across the PCL market in the coming months.<h2 style="text-align:left;">Prime Central London sales market</h2>A year ago, the second quarter of 2021 saw sales activity across prime central London reach record highs. Buyers were looking to complete on deals and take advantage of the &pound;15,000 saving available in the first phase of the Stamp Duty Land Tax holiday which ended on 30 June.<img alt="" src="https://cms-resi.eu.jll.com/images/default-source/agency/pcl-transactions-volumes.jpg?Status=Master&amp;sfvrsn=5c94d276_1" sf-size="100" />With no incentives in place this year we did not expect activity would rival the 2021 highs. But despite a 21% annual fall the number of properties sold in Q2 2022 sales were up 3% on Q1 2022. And if we exclude 2021, Q2 2022 saw the highest second quarter transaction volumes since Q2 2015. Compared with Q1 2022 we saw more houses transact, with 25% more sold in Q2 2022. Over the same period the number of flats sold fell 3%. The JLL Prime Central London Sales Index shows prices in Q2 2022 increased by 1.4% annually, following a 3.3% annual increase in Q1 2022. Albeit registering a modest quarterly fall, values down 0.4% on Q1 2022. But prices remain 4.3% higher than they were pre-pandemic in Q1 2020.Houses continue to outperform flats. Small houses with up to three bedrooms saw the highest annual increase, with prices rising 4.4% annually. Larger houses with four or more bedrooms saw prices increase 3.1% over the same period. &nbsp;Flat prices saw lower growth in Q2 2022, with small flats up to two bedrooms and large flats with three or more bedrooms both recording annual increases of 0.8% compared with the same period a year earlier.Stock levels have risen too, with the number of properties on the market at the end of Q2 2022 higher than at the end of the previous three quarters, 10% up on volumes at the end of Q1 and back to levels last seen a year ago in Q2 2021. Looking ahead activity looks set to increase.&nbsp; The number of applicants registering with JLL PCL offices in Q2 2022 rose 63% compared with 2021 and was 33% higher than 2019 levels. We are seeing an increase in applicants willing to spend more on their prime central London property too.&nbsp; Over half (54%) of applicants registering for homes in Q2 2022 had budgets which would stretch to more than &pound;2 million, compared with 35% of prospective buyers in Q2 2021.<h2 style="text-align:left;">Prime Central London lettings market</h2>A year ago, rents were starting to recover. With high stock levels and lower demand which had plagued the PCL lettings market easing as restrictions were lifted.Indeed, we quickly saw a shift in the supply and demand dynamic. This year a shallow pool of available stock and rising demand from tenants returning to the capital has continued to drive rents up across prime central London. With agents reporting supply of smaller one- and two-bedroom flats remains particularly constrained.&nbsp; Rents rose 2.0% in Q2 2022 compared with the previous quarter. This resulted in the JLL Prime Central London Lettings Index recording a 14.4% annual increase in achieved rents. Rents in Q2 2022 now 5.1% higher than they were pre-pandemic in Q1 2020.<img alt="" src="https://cms-resi.eu.jll.com/images/default-source/agency/change-in-pcl-rents.jpg?Status=Master&amp;sfvrsn=da482687_1" sf-size="100" />Rental values continue to increase across all price brackets, although the highest growth is still being recorded for properties commanding lower average rental values. Properties with rental values under &pound;1,000 per week have increased in value by 15.9% while those with rental values over &pound;3,000 per week increased by 5.6%.The number of new lets rose in Q2 2022 compared with Q1, up 15%. Yet volumes continue to lag long run averages.&nbsp; Lack of stock means competition remains strong for new stock, so we continue to see higher than normal levels of renewals as tenants are reluctant to re-enter the market. The number of properties let down 42% on Q2 2021, with lettings in the year to Q2 2022 now at their lowest level since Q3 2020 (which includes periods of lockdown).Looking ahead there are signs that supply constraints experienced in the last nine months may be starting to ease. Levels of new supply rose again this quarter compared with Q1 2022 but are still far lower than we would expect at this point in the year. The number of properties available to let at the end of Q2 2022 17% higher than Q1 2022 but still 57% down on Q2 2021.&nbsp; New applicants have also fallen back in Q2 2022, with 15% fewer registrations across JLL PCL offices compared with Q2 2021 suggesting we could begin to see supply and demand become more balanced as we move into the second half of the year. <h2 style="text-align:left;">About JLL</h2>JLL is a leading global professional services firm specialising in real estate and investment management, with $16.6bn annual revenue in 2020, operations in over 80 countries and a global workforce of over 90,000.&nbsp; With over 7,000 employees and 15 offices in the UK, we support our investor, developer and occupier clients at every stage of the property lifecycle across both commercial and residential asset classes. This includes land purchase, access to capital, planning, development advisory, leasing, building management and sales.JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare and student housing.Disclaimer: &copy; 2022 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.

Prime Central London – Q2 2022

Where next for prime central London as rental growth again outperforms prices?

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Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL), together with its subsidiaries and affiliates, is a leading global provider of real estate and investment management services. We take our responsibility to protect the personal information provided to us seriously.
Generally the personal information we collect from you are for the purposes of dealing with your enquiry.
We endeavor to keep your personal information secure with appropriate level of security and keep for as long as we need it for legitimate business or legal reasons. We will then delete it safely and securely. For more information about how JLL processes your personal data, please view our <a href="https://www.jll.co.uk/en/privacy-statement" target="_blank">privacy statement</a>.

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PRIVACY NOTICE
Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL), together with its subsidiaries and affiliates, is a leading global provider of real estate and investment management services. We take our responsibility to protect the personal information provided to us seriously.
Generally the personal information we collect from you are for the purposes of dealing with your enquiry.
We endeavor to keep your personal information secure with appropriate level of security and keep for as long as we need it for legitimate business or legal reasons. We will then delete it safely and securely. For more information about how JLL processes your personal data, please view our&nbsp;<a href="https://www.jll.co.uk/en/privacy-statement" target="_blank">privacy statement</a>.

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