<p>The announcement of the July election (unintentionally) coincided with the release of our revised JLL housing market forecasts. Price falls, which we had forecast to see in early 2024 have largely failed to materialise, as more competitive rates entered
    the market. This means we now expect prices to rise by +2% nationally this year, compared to our previous forecast of -3% made in October 2023.<br /></p><p>Lower value markets are expected to outperform this year. As rates improve, we expect London to lead, with growth in both Central and Greater London expected to be higher than the national average over the five-year forecast period. <br /></p><p>Our research points to city centre markets as the primary driver of growth. The demand for urban living and the projected growth in households propel these markets forward over the five-year forecast period. As cities continue to attract young professionals
    and lifestyle seekers, the demand for rental properties in central locations is set to remain strong, contributing to the robust market performance.<br /></p><p>More balance appears to be emerging across the rental market, as the gap between tenant demand and landlord instructions reached its lowest level in four years, according to the RICS Residential Market Survey. A net +33 of respondents expect rent rises
    in the next three months. Though high, this is the lowest reading since 2021. Despite this shift, JLL expects a continued imbalance and anticipates rent increases across all markets year-on-year for the next five-year period. According to our updated
    forecast, which account for 2024 as an election year, rents are expected to rise by 4.5% nationally in 2024, with growth of 18.8% between 2024 and 2028. <br /></p><p>For more on our updated forecasts please <a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1716956941/resi/gb/cms/Research/PDFs/JLL-Residential-Forecasts-2024-2028-Spring-Update.pdf" target="_blank" style="text-decoration:underline;">click here</a>.</p><h2>JLL forecasts</h2><style>td,
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<div style="overflow-x:auto;width:100%;padding-top:5%;" align="center" class="mob-height"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="1" align="left"><tbody><tr class="red"><th scope="col">Sales price growth (% pa)</th><th scope="col">2024</th><th scope="col">2025</th><th scope="col">2026</th><th scope="col">2027</th><th scope="col">2028</th><th scope="col">Cumulative 2024-28</th><th scope="col">Average pa 2024-28</th></tr><tr><td>UK</td><td>2.0</td><td>3.0</td><td>3.5</td><td>4.5</td><td>3.5</td><td><strong>17.6</strong></td><td><strong>3.3</strong></td></tr><tr><td>Central London</td><td>0.0</td><td>3.5</td><td>5.0</td><td>5.5</td><td>4.5</td><td><strong>19.8</strong></td><td><strong>3.7</strong></td></tr><tr><td>Greater London</td><td>1.0</td><td>3.5</td><td>4.5</td><td>4.5</td><td>4.0</td><td><strong>18.7</strong></td><td><strong>3.5</strong></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div style="overflow-x:auto;width:100%;padding-top:5%;" align="center"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="1" align="left"><tbody><tr class="red"><th scope="col">Rental growth (% pa)</th><th scope="col">2024</th><th scope="col">2025</th><th scope="col">2026</th><th scope="col">2027</th><th scope="col">2028</th><th scope="col">Cumulative 2024-28</th><th scope="col">Average pa 2024-28</th></tr><tr><td>UK</td><td>4.5</td><td>3.5</td><td>3.5</td><td>3.0</td><td>3.0</td><td><strong>18.8</strong></td><td><strong>3.5</strong></td></tr><tr><td>Central London</td><td>4.5</td><td>4.0</td><td>4.0</td><td>4.0</td><td>3.5</td><td><strong>21.7</strong></td><td><strong>4.0</strong></td></tr><tr><td>Greater London</td><td>5.0</td><td>4.0</td><td>4.0</td><td>4.0</td><td>3.5</td><td><strong>21.1</strong></td><td><strong>3.9</strong></td></tr><tr><td>UK BTR</td><td>5.5</td><td>5.0</td><td>4.0</td><td>4.0</td><td>3.5</td><td><strong>24.0</strong></td><td><strong>4.4</strong></td></tr></tbody></table></div><p style="padding-top:2%;"><sup><sup>Source: JLL<br />&copy; 2024 Jones Lang LaSalle IP. Inc. All rights reserved.</sup></sup>
</p>

JLL Residential Forecasts 2024-2028 update

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The announcement of the July election (unintentionally) coincided with the release of our revised JLL housing market forecasts. Price falls, which we had forecast to see in early 2024 have largely failed to materialise, as more competitive rates entered the market.

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<p>The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics show the UK economy all but plateauing in Q3, with economic growth of 0.1% recorded, below the 0.2% forecast and lower than the 0.5% figure for Q2. Understandably the Chancellor is disappointed
    with these numbers and will be hoping that with the budget behind us we&rsquo;ll see more activity and a shift away from pre-Budget inertia. </p><h2><strong>Wages rising</strong></h2><p>Annual growth in weekly earnings rose 4.8% in the three months to September, according to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics. Wage growth remained above inflation, rising 1.4% in real (inflation adjusted) terms. These figures support
    assertions by the Bank of England that some heat is coming out of the labour market as we move towards the end of the year and remains in line with expectations. </p><h2><strong>The latest from the RICS</strong></h2><p>In contrast to the lacklustre economic news, the latest RICS survey showed some signs of cautious optimism in the housing market. The headline net balance (remember the RICS report on balance of opinion so anything in positive territory suggests more
    agents reporting a rise than a fall) for new buyer enquiries was positive for the fourth consecutive month, albeit little changed from September at +12%. Sales activity looked to be edging up too, with a net balance of +9% of agents reporting an increase.
    This is the third consecutive monthly rise, following broadly negative readings since early 2022. Outlook on price growth remained positive too, with the net balance of agents expecting prices to rise over the next 12 months increasing to +20% in
    October, up from +12% the month prior. </p><p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1731679600/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Rise-Q4.png" /></p><p>For lettings, results from the October survey show tenant demand rising in the three months to October, with more respondents seeing an increase than a fall, returning a positive net balance of +19%. But there were fewer landlord instructions, possibly
    reflecting pre-Budget caution from landlords, with a net balance of -29% of agents reporting a fall in the three months to October.&nbsp; The most negative figure for three years. Unsurprisingly, with demand increasing and fewer instructions, respondents
    were more optimistic about the prospect for rent rises in the coming months. A balance of +33% of agents expecting rents to rise over the next three months. </p><p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1731679599/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Rent-Rises.png" /></p><p>The ONS rental index (all lets) shows rents up 8.4% annually, but new lets (via Homelet) are showing a 3.4% annual increase nationally. For sales, Nationwide show prices up 2.4% annually with Halifax figures suggesting higher growth of 3.9%. </p><h2><strong>Base rates fall but fixed rates rise</strong></h2><p>In the run up to the Monetary Policy Committee meeting on 7<sup>th</sup> November most were forecasting a further reduction in the base rate.&nbsp; Even with a mixed reaction following the budget this view didn&rsquo;t waiver much and was confirmed with
    a 25bps reduction.&nbsp; The MPC members voting eight to one to reduce rates (the one voting to stick). But messaging from the MPC suggests chances of a further 2024 reduction when they next meet on 19<sup>th</sup> December remain slim. </p><p>The November drop is good news for those on variable or tracker rates, but for those shopping for fixed rates a rise in swap rates, which started to build pre-Budget, means a host of lenders have increased their fixed rates.&nbsp; At the time of writing
    most sub 4% five-year fixes have been pulled from the market, rates are still lower than the 4.7% best-buys a year ago but expect them to sit slightly higher until we have some clarity on swaps. &nbsp;</p><h2><strong>Starts drop in London</strong></h2><p>A new approach to measuring housing need in London suggests we should be targeting 80,000 completions a year in the capital. But<strong> </strong>Molior London figures show housing starts in London so far this year (January to September) are down 53%
    on the ten-year average. Figures from the GLA show the number of affordable housing starts in the six months to September 2024 fell 23% on 2023 levels, with just shy of 2,700 affordable homes completed. Over the same six-month period there were just
    582 GLA-funded affordable homes started, up on 2023 levels but nowhere near target. Expect continued scarcity in the London new homes market until we see an uptick in activity. </p><h2><strong>Updated JLL forecasts</strong></h2><p>Back in May our revised forecast coincided with the announcement of a UK General Election and in November we were upstaged again when our forecast launch fell on the same day as the US election.</p>
<p>So, for those who may have missed it, our updated 2025 to 2029 forecast expects activity to
increase steadily from 2025 onwards, with prices up 20% and rents up 17% by the end of the five-year forecast period. To read more on our latest outlook for 2025-2029 <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/insights/news/jll-residential-forecast-2025-2029">click here.</a></p><p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1731677711/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Outlook-Price-Rent.png" /></p>

Residential Roundup - 15 November

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It&rsquo;s been a busy couple of weeks since we last updated you following the UK Budget. Trump is heading back to the White House, the Bank of England has dropped the bank rate 25bps to 4.75%, and here at JLL we&rsquo;ve released our latest house price forecasts.

It’s been a busy couple of weeks since we last updated you following the UK Budget. Trump is heading back to the White House, the Bank of England has dropped the bank rate 25bps to 4.75%, and here at JLL we’ve released our latest house price forecasts.

<p><strong>It&rsquo;s been a busy couple of weeks since we last updated you following the UK Budget. Trump is heading back to the White House for a second time, the Bank of England has dropped the bank rate 25bps to 4.75%, and here at JLL we&rsquo;ve released our latest house price forecasts. The latter obviously grabbing the lion&rsquo;s share of headlines&hellip;.</strong></p>

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<p>With the October Budget behind us, the outlook for both prices and rents remains positive. The government is forging ahead with its plan to deliver more homes, but it will take some time before we see any real impact on overall supply. Increased government
    borrowing means the latest inflation forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility have come in higher than expected, which could throw some cold water on more bullish forecasts for mortgage rates.&nbsp; But the direction of travel appears to
    be the same, even if it may take a little longer to get there. </p><p>Lack of supply and more competitive mortgage rates are expected to underpin growth in prices over the next five years. Rental growth is expected to exceed inflation and wages over the five-year forecast period, but an increase in activity in the sales
    market means rental growth is expected to lag price growth, with rents forecast to be 17% higher by the end of 2029. </p><h2><strong>2024 outlook</strong></h2><p>Back in May we forecast house prices nationally would rise by 2% in 2024. This was underpinned by a continued resilience and lack of distress in the sales market, with prices holding firm despite the challenge of higher rates and uncertainties in the
    run up to the election (which at that point we were thinking would take place in the autumn). An early election was seen as a positive for the market, but Budget jitters meant much of that hoped for momentum was lost (or at least delayed).</p><p>Looking at the latest government figures (year to August 2024) shows prices have risen 2.8% annually, with more recent Nationwide figures for the year to October at 2.4%. There are obviously a few months to go but we expect year end growth to come in
    marginally above our 2% forecast. Scotland and the north of England are expected to see higher growth. Higher mortgage rates remained most challenging for more expensive markets in London and southern England, with growth in these regions, as forecast,
    lower than other areas of the UK this year.</p><p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1730756189/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Resi-Forecast-Chart-1.jpg" /></p><p>We forecast UK rents would end 2024 4.5% higher annually.&nbsp; The ONS Private Rents Index, which we benchmark against, is still showing growth of 8.4% in the year to August, but new lets data from Homelet data shows average rents were 4.3% higher in
    September 2024 than they were a year earlier. We expect ONS figures could end the year higher than our 4.5% forecast, but the significant imbalance between tenant demand and supply has levelled off in recent months so we expect some further heat will
    come out of the rental market as we move into 2025. </p><h2><strong>Lessons from the (recent) past</strong></h2><p>Looking back over the last 25 years, price growth (taken here in five-year chunks to mirror our five-year outlook) shows three distinct periods for growth. Before the Global Financial Crisis five-year growth of 60% or more was the norm. But the period
    of re-correction that followed saw much of this froth removed from the market as five-year growth fell back to single digits or low teens to compensate for the significant tightening of the debt markets. </p><p>But for the last decade, despite significant variation in mortgage rates and a global pandemic, house prices rises over a five-year term have remained remarkably consistent. Peaking in 2017 at 33% but otherwise ranging from 21% to 27%.&nbsp;</p><p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1730756189/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Resi-Forecast-Chart-2.jpg" /></p><h2><strong>UK Economy</strong></h2><style>td,
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<div style="overflow-x:auto;" align="center"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="1" align="left"><tbody><tr class="red"><th scope="col"></th><th scope="col">2025</th><th scope="col" data-role="resizable">2026</th><th scope="col">2027</th><th scope="col" data-role="resizable">2028</th><th scope="col" data-role="resizable">2029</th><th scope="col">Change 2025-29</th></tr><tr><td>CPI (OBR)</td><td>2.6</td><td>2.3</td><td>2.1</td><td>2.1</td><td>2.0</td><td>11.6</td></tr><tr><td>Wages (OE)</td><td>2.7</td><td>2.4</td><td>2.5</td><td>2.8</td><td>2.9</td><td>14.0</td></tr><tr><td>UK GDP (OBR)</td><td>2</td><td>1.8</td><td>1.5</td><td>1.5</td><td>1.6</td><td>8.7</td></tr></tbody></table></div><p style="text-align:left;">Source: JLL Research using Office of Budget Responsibility, Oxford Economics</p><p style="text-align:left;">The outlook for economic growth remains muted, with inflation expected to sit a little higher than the Bank of England&rsquo;s 2% target until 2029.&nbsp; But the Bank of England rate cutting cycle is expected to continue and assuming swap rates settle
    post Budget and the US election we&rsquo;ll likely see mortgage rates fall back too - if not quite as quickly as we had hoped. </p><p style="text-align:left;">Consensus forecasts suggest rate cuts will run through until the end of 2026, with mortgage rates expected to become more competitive over this period. Following a similar trend to 2024 we anticipate lower value markets will benefit first.&nbsp; Activity
    will be driven by first time buyers, with home movers following once rates become more attractive. Higher value markets in London and the south are expected to see stronger growth in the second half of our five-year forecast period.</p><h2><strong>Market activity</strong></h2><style>td,
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<div style="overflow-x:auto;" align="center"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="1" align="left"><tbody><tr class="red"><th scope="col" data-role="resizable"></th><th scope="col" data-role="resizable">2024</th><th scope="col">2025</th><th scope="col">2026</th><th scope="col" data-role="resizable">2027</th><th scope="col">2028</th><th scope="col">2029</th></tr><tr><td>Housing Starts</td><td>135,000</td><td>157,000</td><td>179,000</td><td>199,000</td><td>224,000</td><td>244,000</td></tr><tr><td>Transactions</td><td>1.0m</td><td>1.2m</td><td>1.3m</td><td>1.3m</td><td>1.3m</td><td>1.4m</td></tr></tbody></table></div><p>Source: JLL Research, Experian</p><p>Committing to build 1.5 million homes over the course of this parliament, the government has set itself an ambitious target.&nbsp; But ramping up delivery without any demand side stimulus will be a real challenge. Current supply side plans have started
    to put the building blocks in place to ramp up delivery but increasing delivery in a meaningful way with current planning, labour force, and supply chain constraints won&rsquo;t be a quick fix. JLL forecast new housing starts across the UK will total
    1 million homes between 2025 and 2029.&nbsp; Conversions of existing stock (currently accounting for around one in ten net additions) are expected to rise too, so we&rsquo;ve allowed (possibly sightly ambitiously) for 200,000 in the next five years
    taking us to a forecast of 1.2 million homes.<br /></p><h2 style="text-align:left;"><strong>Sales price forecasts</strong></h2><style>td,
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<div style="overflow-x:auto;" align="center"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="1" align="left"><tbody><tr class="red"><th scope="col">Sales price growth (% pa)</th><th scope="col">2025</th><th scope="col">2026</th><th scope="col">2027</th><th scope="col" data-role="resizable">2028</th><th scope="col">2029</th><th scope="col">Change 2025-29</th><th scope="col">Average pa 2025-29</th></tr><tr><td>UK</td><td>3.5</td><td>4.0</td><td>4.5</td><td>3.5</td><td>3.0</td><td>19.9</td><td>3.7</td></tr><tr><td>Greater London</td><td>2.5</td><td>3.5</td><td>5.0</td><td>5.0</td><td>4.0</td><td>21.6</td><td>4.0</td></tr></tbody></table></div><p style="text-align:left;">Source: JLL Research </p><p>A new government with ambitious plans for housebuilding and more comfortable with a higher tax environment, particularly for wealthier households, could mean future growth prospects differ from the recent past. But neither of the these seem a sufficient
    departure from the current trend to meaningfully change the path of growth over the coming five-year period (2025-2029). </p><p>We do expect higher rates (even if they fall back from current levels) will limit growth prospects, meaning our 2025-2029 forecasts sit at the lower end of the recent five year averages. </p><p>We expect growth of 19.9% nationally 2025-2029. London house prices are expected to increase by 21.6% over the same period, underpinned by a lack of new homes reaching the market for sale. We expect lower value markets to see stronger growth towards the
    beginning of our five-year forecast period, with more expensive markets outperforming once the rate cutting cycle continues into 2026 and 2027.&nbsp; <br /></p><h2 style="text-align:left;"><strong>Rental forecasts</strong><strong></strong></h2><style>td,
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<div style="overflow-x:auto;" align="center"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="1" align="left"><tbody><tr class="red"><th scope="col">Rental growth (% pa)</th><th scope="col" data-role="resizable">2025</th><th scope="col">2026</th><th scope="col">2027</th><th scope="col" data-role="resizable">2028</th><th scope="col">2029</th><th scope="col">Change 2025-29</th><th scope="col">Average pa 2025-29</th></tr><tr><td>UK</td><td>3.0</td><td>2.5</td><td>3.0</td><td>3.5</td><td>4.0</td><td>17.1</td><td>3.2</td></tr><tr><td>Greater London</td><td>2.5</td><td>3.0</td><td>3.5</td><td>4.0</td><td>4.5</td><td>18.8</td><td>3.5</td></tr><tr><td>UK BTR</td><td>3.5</td><td>3.5</td><td>3.5</td><td>4.0</td><td>4.5</td><td>20.5</td><td>3.8</td></tr></tbody></table></div><p style="text-align:left;">Source: JLL Research </p><p style="text-align:left;">In the five years to September 2024 rents rose nationally by 27%. But the rapid rise in rents in the last three years isn&rsquo;t reflective of the long-term trend.&nbsp; Five-year growth figures in early 2020 sat at around 12%, when rents broadly tracked
    wage growth. </p><p style="text-align:left;">The supply demand imbalance which has in part driven rent rises (wage growth and inflation also contributed) is now becoming more balanced, but a lack of new stock entering the market means we anticipate rental growth will exceed wage growth and inflation
    over the next five years. </p><p style="text-align:left;">The October Budget did little to change our view.&nbsp; Capital Gains Tax for residential property remained the same, meaning exit costs didn&rsquo;t rise, but entry costs did.&nbsp; Landlords looking to purchase homes now having to pay an additional
    2% stamp duty over the previous already elevated bill. We expect this will mean more traditional buy-to-let landlords will leave the market than enter over the next five years. </p><p style="text-align:left;">But activity in the sales market is expected to increase too, likely meaning an increase in tenants moving across into owner occupation, alleviating some demand side pressures in the short term.&nbsp; </p><p style="text-align:left;">JLL forecast UK rents will rise 17% over the next five years, with rental growth in the London expected to total 18% over the same period.</p><h2 style="text-align:left;"><strong>What to watch</strong></h2><ul><li style="text-align:left;"><strong>EPC C by 2030</strong> &ndash; Around half of all privately rented homes nationally are EPC D or below.&nbsp; As we move closer to the 2030 deadline, we expect some landlords will offload less efficient stock or remove properties from the
        market to retrofit to meet the new standard. Expect rents to rise in the run up as stock levels fall. For sales, landlords selling properties could bring more lower value homes to the market impacting average prices.<br /></li><li style="text-align:left;"><strong>Renters Right Bill</strong> &ndash; Current proposals include the provision for tenants to challenge market busting rental increases. Our forecast for lower annual increases will help cushion the impact here but may limit the potential for
        growth in some markets, particularly if the courts are overwhelmed with applicants. Landlords concerned around the impact of the bill could also chose to exit the market, particularly as the sales market improves.<br /></li><li style="text-align:left;"><strong>Buyer incentives</strong> &ndash; With the stamp duty threshold returning to its previous &pound;300,000 level for first time buyers next spring there was surprisingly little in the budget to incentivise buyers.&nbsp; However, there was reference
        to Phase 2 of the Spending Review in Q2 2025, so we could see further incentives or concessions introduced then.<br /></li><li style="text-align:left;"><strong>Rates &ndash; </strong>A more rapid fall in mortgage rates could mean higher value markets see stronger growth earlier.<br /><strong></strong></li><li style="text-align:left;"><strong>Housebuilding &ndash; </strong>The government has ambitious plans for new homes.&nbsp; We do expect activity to increase but still assume starts will lag the 1.5 million target. Our current forecast accounts for stock scarcity in the new homes
        market towards the start of the five-year period with new development activity not expected to be sufficiently high to have any negative impact on prices.<br /></li><li style="text-align:left;"><strong>International buyers and prime London &ndash;</strong> Changes to non-dom rules and increases in SDLT on additional properties mean higher costs for overseas buyers. But a lack of stock, particularly of new homes, means those who are in the
        market may find choice scarce and competition for the best stock remains strong.&nbsp;</li></ul>

JLL Residential Forecast 2025-2029

Houses prices expected to rise by 20% in the next five years as lower mortgage rates bring buyers back to the market. Rental growth slows from recent highs.

<strong>Houses prices expected to rise by 20% in the next five years as lower mortgage rates bring buyers back to the market. Rental growth slows from recent highs.</strong>

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<p>The announcement on additional borrowing had already unsettled investors in the run up to the budget, driving government borrowing costs to a five-month high.&nbsp; But leaks and briefings on some key policies pre-Budget appear to have had the desired effect meaning we&rsquo;re still below post mini-budget levels.</p><p>For housing there was little evidence of some of the much-speculated changes we heard rumour of in the run up. Some will see this as a missed opportunity.&nbsp; But this is far from the worst-case scenario many had feared. And clarification on government plans, or at least an end to pre-budget speculation, should bring more prospective buyers back to the market.</p><p>After all, the housing market looks to be in decent shape.&nbsp; Mortgage approval figures in September were at their highest for more than two years, with lower rates bringing more prospective buyers back to the market.&nbsp; Prices are edging up in response and activity across the market is recovering, too.</p><p><strong>So what was in the budget for housing? </strong></p><h2><strong>UK economy on the path to recovery</strong></h2><p>The latest figures from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) suggest the UK economy will grow by 1.1% this year and by 2.0% in 2025 in real terms. Inflation (CPI) is expected to sit marginally above the 2% target each year until 2029. </p><h2><strong>Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT)</strong></h2><p>Changes to stamp duty rules mean those purchasing properties in addition to their main residence (buy-to-let and second homes) will now pay a 5% rather than 3% surcharge. Adding &pound;10,000 to the stamp duty bill for a &pound;500,000 home. </p><p>The single rate of SDLT charged on the purchase of dwellings costing &pound;500,000 or more by corporate bodies will also rise from 15% to 17%. </p><p>Increases in rates were not necessarily viewed as a significant revenue raiser (an extra &pound;400 million by 2029/30) but would rather level the playing field between first time buyers and investors. But extra stamp duty for additional properties was not accompanied by an increase in incentives for first time buyers, with nothing in the budget on the first time buyer zero rate thresholds, which are due to drop back from &pound;425,000 to &pound;300,000 in April 2025. Instead, the government has committed to consult the industry on extending the mortgage guarantee scheme, effectively a 5% deposit scheme for first time buyers. News on that is promised in Phase 2 of the Spending Review next Spring.</p><h2><strong>Capital Gains Tax (CGT)</strong></h2><p>Tax on gains for residential property were left at their current level of 18% for lower rate and 24% for higher rate tax payers. Disposal of other assets, including shares, was normalised with residential property at 24%. With suggestions that &lsquo;normalisation&rsquo; could have been imposed with income tax rates, this should add some comfort to those in the sector. &nbsp;</p><h2><strong>Affordable housing</strong></h2><p>The government reaffirmed its commitment to deliver more affordable homes.&nbsp; A &pound;500million top up was promised for the Affordable Homes Programme and a consultation for an ongoing five-year rent settlement at CPI+1 (guaranteeing the rent cap on the amount providers can charge) was announced.&nbsp; Those wanting clarity on future grant investment will need to wait until the Spending Review in Q2 next year.</p><h2><strong>Right to Buy</strong></h2><p>Discounts for those purchasing through Right to Buy scheme will be reduced and councils in England will be able to keep all the receipts from sales to deliver new homes. This will need further investment to stem the loss of social housing through the scheme, with the latest annual figures showing 3,046 homes started using Right to Buy receipts versus 6,275 sold. </p><h2><strong>Inheritance tax (IHT)</strong></h2><p>The Chancellor announced current inheritance tax thresholds will be frozen until 2030, two years ahead of plans pre-budget. This means individuals can continue to leave &pound;325,000 free of tax, rising to &pound;500,000 if leaving your home to your children. Couples can inherit each other&rsquo;s allowance, meaning if you tick all the boxes &pound;1million can be left free of IHT. </p><p>But new rules will bring previously exempt assets into play, meaning pensions, which had been IHT exempt, will fall within the totals from April 2027. Owners of agricultural and business property, again previously able to benefit from exemptions, will from April 2026 need to consider their liabilities over certain thresholds, although allowances will mean an effective rate of 20% rather than 40%. </p><h2><strong>Housing supply</strong></h2><p>We&rsquo;ve already heard from the government on its plans for delivering more homes, so perhaps a lack of detail within the budget was to be expected. The government committed &pound;5bn to their housing building programme in 2025/26 and repeated its commitment to provide 300 new planners (effectively less than one per authority), but the new planning framework (NPPF) due at the end of the year is expected to fill in some further gaps here. </p><h2><strong>Non-doms</strong></h2><p>As expected, the government announced it will end current non-domiciled tax rules from April 2025 and introduce a new residence-based system. For those looking to bring assets into the UK, the government will extend the temporary repatriation facility from two to three years. This isn&rsquo;t new, and follows similar plans announced under the Conservatives. The budget confirmed that only gains made after April 2017 will be considered as part of the new proposals, but the door is still open for government to bring worldwide assets within the scope of UK inheritance tax.</p><h2><strong>What we missed</strong></h2><p>With the government having already announced plans to reinstate ambitious housing targets post-election we had hoped the budget would include some news on stimulus for demand. Yet incentives for home purchase, changes to stamp duty land tax (aside from the increase for additional properties) and the reintroduction of Multiple Dwellings Relief were conspicuous in their absence this time around. </p><p>More positive news on the UK economy and further interest rate cuts expected before the end of the year will likely support house price growth. But while we acknowledge increasing demand when supply remains low could challenge affordability further, the government needs to reassure developers and investors that there will be a market for a higher number of new homes they&rsquo;ve committed to deliver.&nbsp;</p>

Residential Roundup – Budget Special

<p>With the plans from the first Labour Budget in 14 years expected to bring in an extra &pound;40bn &ndash; read Marcus Dixon&rsquo;s overview of what was included for housing, in this week&rsquo;s Residential Roundup.</p>

With the plans from the first Labour Budget in 14 years expected to bring in an extra £40bn – read Marcus Dixon’s overview of what was included for housing, in this week’s Residential Roundup.

<p><strong>The first Labour Budget in 14 years was never going to please everyone. This was a tax raising Budget, with the Chancellor&rsquo;s plans expected to bring in an extra &pound;40bn. Employers will be shouldering much of the financial responsibility, with funding public services core to Labours plans.</strong></p>

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Prime Central London Report - Q3 2024

The JLL Q3 2024 Prime Central London Report tracks activity across the central London housing market. The report incorporates the results of our quarterly JLL Prime Central London Index.

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Sales price growth (% pa)	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	Cumulative 2024-28	Average pa 2024-28
UK	2.0	3.0	3.5	4.5	3.5	17.6	3.3
Central London	0.0	3.5	5.0	5.5	4.5	19.8	3.7
Greater London	1.0	3.5	4.5	4.5	4.0	18.7	3.5

Rental growth (% pa)	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	Cumulative 2024-28	Average pa 2024-28
UK	4.5	3.5	3.5	3.0	3.0	18.8	3.5
Central London	4.5	4.0	4.0	4.0	3.5	21.7	4.0
Greater London	5.0	4.0	4.0	4.0	3.5	21.1	3.9
UK BTR	5.5	5.0	4.0	4.0	3.5	24.0	4.4

JLL Residential Forecasts 2024-2028 update

JLL forecasts

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Residential Roundup – Budget Special

Prime Central London Report - Q3 2024