Prime Central London Report - Q1 2025

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The JLL Q1 2025 Prime Central London Report tracks activity across the central London housing market. The report incorporates the results of our quarterly JLL Prime Central London Index.

<p>The JLL Q1 2025 Prime Central London Report tracks activity across the central London housing market. The report incorporates the results of our quarterly JLL Prime Central London Index.</p>

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Unpacking the Renters Reform Bill: Key Insights for Landlords and Tenants

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<p>Discover key insights on the UK's Renters Reform Bill from JLL's Lucy Morton. Learn how changes in fixed-term tenancies, rent increases, evictions, and more will impact landlords and tenants. Essential reading for anyone in the private rental sector.</p>

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<p>The JLL Big Six Residential Development Report compares activity, prices, and rents across six UK cities outside London: Birmingham, Bristol, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Leeds and Manchester. This report incorporates data from the JLL UK Cities index, comparing
    changes in prices and rents across mainstream and prime developments in each city.</p><p>Average annual rental growth across the Big Six cities stands at 4.2% in December 2024. New stock coming to the market continues to demand higher rents, however more balance between supply and demand has meant average growth returning to single digits
    for all cities.</p><p>Interest rates have remained higher than expected and continue to impact development viability and buyers&rsquo; budgets through higher mortgage rates. Average prices for new build apartments have risen 2.1% across the Big Six. Markets with lower average
    prices, notably Birmingham and Glasgow, have seen the highest price growth.</p><p>After a sharp slowdown in the first half of the year, the Big Six build-to-rent market had its most active second half since 2021, bringing full-year investment to &pound;1bn. Though reflecting a 12% year-on-year decline, it was a strong finish to 2024.
</p><p><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1739942706/resi/gb/PDFs/Big_Six_Residential_Development_Report_-_Winter_24-25.pdf" target="_blank"><button class="Button primary" style="text-align:center;">Click here to read more</button></a></p>

Big Six Residential Development Report - Winter 2024/25

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Prime Central London Report - Q4 2024

The JLL Q4 2024 Prime Central London Report tracks activity across the central London housing market. The report incorporates the results of our quarterly JLL Prime Central London Index.

<p><strong>The JLL Q4 2024 Prime Central London Report tracks activity across the central London housing market. The report incorporates the results of our quarterly JLL Prime Central London Index.</strong></p>

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London Development and BTR Report - Autumn 2024

<p>The Central London Development and BTR Report tracks development activity across London, including new targets for residential development, new homes sales and the performance of the Build to Rent sector.</p>

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Prime Central London Report - Q3 2024

The JLL Q3 2024 Prime Central London Report tracks activity across the central London housing market. The report incorporates the results of our quarterly JLL Prime Central London Index.

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<p><strong>This week has brought some welcome news for Andrew Bailey and the Bank of England. Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) fell below 2% for the first time since April 2021, with the annual inflation rate coming in below both the target rate and the Bank&rsquo;s expectations of 1.9%, rising 1.7% in the year to September. A fall in the cost of airfares and petrol in the last couple of months were credited with these figures coming in lower than forecast.</strong></p><p>Core CPI (which excludes things like energy and food) has been more stubborn than overall CPI, but it also fell back further than expected, with annual growth of 3.2% &ndash; below the 3.4% forecast &ndash; in September. </p><p>Wage growth in the three months to August 2024 was broadly in line with the Bank&rsquo;s expectations. Regular pay rose 4.9% annually, while pay with bonuses was up 3.8%. This combination means real wages (wages after inflation) are rising, meaning more
    in the pocket for UK workers. Potential Budget tax raids aside, this means we&rsquo;d expect consumers will be more confident to spend this quarter than last. </p><p>This all points to a further reduction in rates when the Monetary Policy Committee meets on 17<sup>th</sup> November. A 25bp cut remains more likely than 50, but it does open up the prospect of a further 25bps in December, if key indictors keep heading
    in the right direction. </p><h2>Mortgage markets</h2><p>So, all this means mortgage rates are falling, right? Well not quite. Natwest and Santander are just two of the lenders who have announced an increase in their fixed rates in the past few days. This isn&rsquo;t unusual: often those with the most competitive
    rates will put them up once they reach certain quotas, but there is a bit more at play here other than just a run on lower rate deals.</p><p>Long-term borrowing costs have been rising, with 10-year UK gilt yields (basically a government IOU to be paid back at a future date) rising from a low of 3.75% in mid-September to a mid-October high north of 4.2%. Pre-Budget wobbles are being cited,
    fuelled by reports that Chancellor Rachel Reeves is looking at relaxing fiscal rules to increase borrowing to fund Budget commitments. In recent days the 10-year rate has dropped a little to below 4.1% but expect uncertainty in the mortgage markets
    to persist until we know more on the 30<sup>th</sup>.</p><h2 style="text-align:center;"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1729259626/resi/gb/cms/Research/Images/houseprices.jpg" /></h2><h2>House prices
</h2><p>Figures from the Office for National Statistics show August was the sixth consecutive month when house prices posted an annual increase, the latest figures showing prices up 2.8%. This follows announcements from Nationwide and Halifax earlier this month,
    which showed prices up 3.2% and 4.7% respectively in the year to September. Prices in Scotland (5.4%) and Wales (3.5%) rose more than England (2.3%), with the North West recording the highest growth of any English region at 4.6%. The Midlands and
    North of England saw higher growth than the South, with the South West the lowest at 0.8%, while London saw growth of 1.4%. </p><h2>Rental Market
</h2><p>The ONS index of all rents showed an annual increase of 8.4% in September 2024, unchanged from August and down from a peak of 9.2% in March 2024. But the Homelet Rental Index of new lets fell relatively sharply to 4.3% from 5.1% a month before, continuing
    the trend we've seen this year of renewals commanding higher growth than new lets. In London the ONS all rents index is still showing annual growth of 9.8%, whereas Homelet shows rents for new lets rising just 1.0% annually. Our Q3 JLL lettings data
    for London sits somewhere in the middle, with average rents achieved on new lets up 2.0% and new lets and renewals combined rising 2.6%.
</p><h2 style="text-align:center;"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1729259628/resi/gb/cms/Research/Images/rentalindex.jpg" /></h2><h2>Construction</h2><p>The S&amp;P Construction Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is a good bell weather for activity. The latest release signalled the steepest rate of growth in construction activity in 29 months, driven particularly by civil engineering and commercial developments.
    But housebuilding has fallen behind, with the volume of new housing activity continuing to fall on an annual basis, according to the ONS. The good news is that compared to 2022/23, housebuilding construction cost inflation is low, but not as low as
    CPI, which alongside Budget uncertainty is still holding back activity and challenging viability within the sector. </p><h2>The Budget</h2>The two-week countdown has begun, with ministers remaining relatively tight lipped around what will make the cut on the 30<sup>th</sup> October. Rachel Reeves appears to be looking closely at employers&rsquo; National Insurance Contributions,
with the number of ministers explaining how this doesn&rsquo;t contradict their manifesto pledges suggesting it could be more than just a Westminster rumour. Reports in the Times on Friday 18<sup>th</sup> October suggest the Chancellor won&rsquo;t increase
Capital Gains Tax (CGT) rates for residential property, with modest increases in CGT on the sale of shares more likely (remember profits from residential property for higher rate tax payers already attract a higher 24% rate compared with 20% for shares).
It is often said that a week is a long time in politics, meaning a fortnight must be an age, so we&rsquo;ll stop speculating for now.&nbsp; Keep an eye out for our next Roundup, a Budget special, out at the end of the month once we know more.
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Residential Roundup - 18 October

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<p><strong>New CPI figures show UK inflation held steady at 2.2% in the year to August 2024. Although only marginally
        higher than the Bank of England&rsquo;s target of 2%, the latest figures confirm inflationary pressures are
        persisting. The main culprit of the stubborn inflation is air fares, rising 22% between July and August. This
        was offset by falling prices at petrol pumps however, alongside restaurants and hotels. Oil prices remain low,
        by historical norms. At the time of writing, the average price of Brent Crude is trading at around $73.5 USD per
        barrel, but perhaps much of this can be attributed to excess supply as opposed to falling demand.</strong></p><p>The Bank of England (BoE) held interest rates at 5% at their latest MPC meeting. This was almost a foregone conclusion following Wednesday&rsquo;s news that inflation remains marginally above the 2% target, with some fearing another rate cut would further
    spike inflation. The BoE are now forecasting that inflation could rise to near 3% by year end, fuelled by rising energy prices. <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/bank-england-hold-bank-rate-this-month-cut-nov-economists-say-2024-09-11/" target="_blank">A recent article by Reuters</a>highlighted that all 65 economists in the September poll predicted the base rate will remain at 5% in September, with 48 of 65 economists predicting the next cut will come in November. The majority
    expect just one more rate cut by year end.</p><p>Meanwhile, GDP growth flatlined in July for the second consecutive month, meaning the UK is no longer the fastest growing economy in the G7. This is not exactly the economic bounce back that Labour were hoping for and puts even more pressure on Rachel
    Reeves in the upcoming Autumn Budget, who is likely to deliver news of tax raises and spending cuts. The Chancellor acknowledged she has a large black hole to fill, but there will be fears that cuts to public spending could result in further lacklustre
    economic growth for the UK.</p><h2>Competition heating up amongst lenders</h2><p>Since the Bank of England announced the first rate cut in four years on 1st August, competition amongst mortgage lenders has been rife.</p><p>Cooling inflation, a change in government and falling mortgage rates have brought about a new sense of enthusiasm from buyers since July 5th. Major lenders have embraced increased demand in the market, with key players continuing to reduce rates to new
    lows. At the time of writing, the current average 2-year fix (75% LTV) across the big six lenders is 4.65% while the average 5-year fix across the big six lenders stands at 4.18%.</p><p>Despite falling mortgage rates, first-time buyers are still having a hard time gaining a foot onto the ladder. A recent report from UK Finance revealed that 22% of loans taken out by first-time buyers in June were for extended terms, with most opting
    for 35 or 40 year loans. This reflects a significant rise from 6% five years ago.</p>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1728547433/resi/gb/cms/News/Images/bar_graph.svg" style="text-align:center;" height="450" /><p>The struggle faced by first-time buyers is mirrored by the results of <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/insights/research/buyers-and-tenants-survey-2024" target="_blank">our latest JLL Buyers and Tenants survey</a>. This year,
    41% of tenants said that higher mortgage rates were impacting their ability to purchase a home. Meanwhile, 26% of buyers this year decided to delay their home purchase, 61% of whom said this was because they were waiting for rates to fall.</p><h2>Housing market</h2><p>New ONS data on house prices and private rents illustrates a continued strength within the housing market. Private rents increased by 8.4% in the year to August 2024, taking average rents to &pound;1,327 per calendar month in England. Although this represents
    a small decrease from 8.6% in July, rental growth is still proving bullish, particularly in central locations. ONS reported annual rental growth was 9.6% in London, the highest of all regions.</p><p>The story is almost the opposite for house prices. House price growth across London was the lowest of all regions, at -0.4% in the year to July. The ONS recorded average house prices across the UK reached &pound;290,000 in July, up 2.2% annually.</p><p>Halifax are now reporting the largest annual increase in house prices across the UK. According to their latest house price index, average house prices were 4.3% higher in August 2024 than a year prior, rising 0.3% on the previous month. Nationwide have
    reported annual growth of 2.4% in August, while the Rightmove September index is reporting 1.2% annual growth.</p><p>Improved sentiment amongst buyers is having a positive impact on sales activity and house prices. We anticipate this continuing into the autumn as lenders continue to bring competitive rates to the market.</p>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1728547583/resi/gb/cms/News/Images/line-graph.svg" style="text-align:center;" height="450" /><h2>Renters Rights Bill</h2><p>Last week, the government introduced the Renters Rights Bill, Labour&rsquo;s version of the previous Renters Reform Bill, first introduced by the Theresa May Conservative government in 2019. A raft of updates to the bill have now been announced, of which
    some of the most significant changes from the perspective of landlords and tenants are detailed below:</p><br /><p><em>Tenants:</em></p><p>There will be an end to fixed-term tenancies, moving to rolling period tenancies. Tenants will have power to end the tenancy, by giving two months&rsquo; notice.</p><p>There will be a single date after Royal Assent and Commencement for the removal of Section 21 evictions, which is not dependent on court reform happening first. This will give tenants immediate security, meaning that the tenancy will only end if the tenant
    leaves by choice, or if the landlord has a valid reason to evict them.</p><br /><p><em>Landlords:</em></p><p>Landlords can end tenancies if they can evidence a valid ground for possession. Landlords will need to give four months notice to move in or sell the property. However, there will be a new protected period for the tenant at the beginning of the tenancy.
    A new ground for possession will allow landlords renting to students in HMO&rsquo;s to seek possession ahead of each new academic year.</p><p>Rent Repayment Orders will be expanded so they are wider in scope and for repeat offenders, with fines increasing in line with inflation. There will be a ban on in-tenancy rental increases written in to contracts, with landlords only allowed one rent
    raise per year, to market rate. In addition, there will be a ban on rental bidding wars with lettings agents, with legal requirement for landlords/agents to be unable to ask or accept any bid above the published rent for the property.</p><br /><p>Neil Short, Area Director &ndash; Residential Lettings, at JLL says &ldquo;As an industry we welcome reforms that will improve living standards within the Private Rented Sector. However, the bill in its current form does raise a few concerns, given Labour&rsquo;s
    large majority it&rsquo;s unlikely that there will be any dramatic changes to the bill. That being said, a lot can happen between now and the Renters Rights Bill gaining Royal Assent. Ensuring that there is a limited negative impact on the supply
    of new private rental homes is of utmost importance. We will keep our clients up to date on how things develop as the bill makes its way through Parliament&rdquo;.</p><h2>JLL Research | September 2024</h2><p>JLL is a leading global professional services firm specialising in real estate and investment management, with $16.6bn annual revenue in 2020, operations in over 80 countries and a global workforce of over 90,000. With over 7,000 employees and 15 offices
    in the UK, we support our investor, developer, and occupier clients at every stage of the property lifecycle across both commercial and residential asset classes. This includes land purchase, access to capital, planning, development advisory, leasing,
    building management and sales.</p><p>JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare
    and student housing.</p><p><sup>Disclaimer: &copy; 2024 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.</sup></p>

Residential Roundup - 20 September

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<p><strong>Housebuilding was a key element of the Labour party election campaign. Angela Rayner announcing plans to build 1.5 million homes over the next five years. Since the election Labour have announced a new methodology to calculate housing need and set new housing targets for local authorities across England. These will exceed original housing targets set by the Conservatives in 2017 of 300,000 homes per annum (scrapped in 2022), delivering 370,000 homes per annum across England, but how do the new targets differ?</strong></p><p><strong>Target by numbers: increase from old target to new</strong></p><p>Applying the new measure of housing need means most local authorities across England (59%) could see their housing target more than double. The housing target for 32% of local authorities has increased by up to 50% from the old target, while an additional
    27% of local authorities have seen an increase in their target by 51-100%.</p><p>17.6% of local authorities across England have seen their housing targets decrease under the new methodology, most of which are in Greater London. It&rsquo;s worth noting here that the removal of the Urban Uplift Policy, originally created to direct housing
    growth to the twenty largest urban areas, has meant other large cities and towns, like Manchester, have also seen a reduction. The removal of the policy now means that housing targets are more evenly distributed across England, with some smaller towns
    and rural areas now targeted with significant increases in housebuilding.</p><p>More rural areas such as Tamworth in Staffordshire and Pendle in Lancashire have seen an increase in their targets of 261% and 209% respectively, some of the largest percentage increases across England. This equates to 321 and 258 additional new homes
    now required.</p><p>In terms of actual numbers, Birmingham has the largest housing target of 4,974 new homes. But due to the new methodology and the removal of the urban uplift this new target is 31% lower than the old target of 7,174 new homes. Redcar and Cleveland has
    experienced the largest increase under the new methodology (+1,338%) an increase from just 45 new homes, to 642.</p>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1725013073/resi/gb/cms/News/Images/jll-new-housing-targets-analysis-picture1.png" /><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1725013076/resi/gb/cms/News/Images/jll-new-housing-targets-analysis-picture2.png" /><h2>Targets by numbers: New target vs net additions</h2><p>But even with the new approach London still accounts for 22% of housing targets across England, the highest of all regions. In numerical terms, the largest housing targets outside of London are seen across the South East and East of England regions. A
    housing target of 40,837 across the South East will account for 17% of the total target across England. So how do these targets compare against previous housing delivery?</p><p>The map above compares London boroughs new housing targets against historical average annual net additions (2020/2021 &ndash; 2022/2023). There are six boroughs across London where new housing targets exceed average annual net additions by more than five
    times. These include Bromley, Camden, Kensington and Chelsea, Lewisham, Redbridge, and Richmond.</p><p>Comparing targets with historical net additions shows areas across the Midlands have historically been closer to reaching housing targets. On average since 2020/2021, the East Midlands region has hit 83% of its housing target, followed by the North West
    (75%) and the West Midlands (71%).</p><p>A handful of areas across England have a significant amount of work to do over the next five years if they are to meet housing targets. Portsmouth in the South East will need to increase housing delivery by 8.3 times the current rate if it is to meet
    its target of 1,098 homes per annum. On average since 2021/2022 it delivered just 12% of the proposed target.</p><p>Just 32 local authorities have met housing targets each year since 2020/2021. Half of these areas now have a smaller housing target, or a small increase of 0-50%, compared to historic targets.</p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1725013079/resi/gb/cms/News/Images/jll-new-housing-targets-analysis-picture3.png" /><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1725013077/resi/gb/cms/News/Images/jll-new-housing-targets-analysis-picture4.png" /><h2>Targets by numbers: Total value of new homes</h2><p>If we built all the 370,000 homes target the total value of new homes built could be as much as &pound;148bn across England. London alone could see the total value of homes completed top &pound;55bn. Outside London, the South East of England will see
    the largest total value from new homes if targets are met (&pound;30bn).</p><p>The total value of new homes across the top 20 local authorities (in terms of housing target) will exceed &pound;20bn (excluding London). The top 20 have been defined as the local authorities with the largest housing targets. A significant proportion
    of these are located across the Midlands or the North of England, including Birmingham, Manchester, most areas in Yorkshire and County Durham.</p><p>Average house prices are typically higher in southern areas of England, therefore we can expect higher total value from new homes development in these areas. Despite having the sixth highest housing target across England, average house prices in Buckinghamshire
    of &pound;558,740 in 2024 mean the area is set to record &pound;2.3bn total value in new homes if the housing target of 4,122 is met. This is the highest total value across England.</p><p>Cornwall unitary authority has the second largest housing target of 4,454 new homes. The undersupply and affordability of homes across Cornwall has been cited as critical for many years now. Homes in the area, particularly along the coast, have been bought
    up by those seeking a holiday home or holiday let. This, coupled with planning and development constraints within Cornwall National Landscape areas, means little stock available for permanent residents, particularly affordable homes.</p><p>The housing target across Cornwall has increased by 65%, from 2,707 to 4,454. By comparison, annual net additions in Cornwall have averaged 2,681. This means they will need to increase by 1.6 times the current build rate to meet new targets. With an average
    house price of &pound;344,370 (year to date 2024), this would assume a total value of &pound;1.53bn in new stock.</p><h2>Table 1: Total value of new homes (proposed to be built), by region</h2><style>td,
 th {
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<div style="overflow-x:auto;" align="center"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="1" align="left"><tbody><tr class="red"><th scope="col">Region</th><th scope="col">Number of homes &ndash; new methodology</th><th scope="col">Total value of new homes (&pound;bn)</th></tr><tr><td>London</td><td>80,693</td><td>&pound;55.7</td></tr><tr><td>South East England</td><td>69,060</td><td>&pound;30.3</td></tr><tr><td>East of England</td><td>44,858</td><td>&pound;14.5bn</td></tr><tr><td>South West England</td><td>40,343</td><td>&pound;14.2bn</td></tr><tr><td>North West England</td><td>37,817</td><td>&pound;9.1bn</td></tr><tr><td>West Midlands</td><td>31,754</td><td>&pound;8.7bn</td></tr><tr><td>Yorkshire and the Humber</td><td>27,433</td><td>&pound;6.3bn</td></tr><tr><td>East Midlands</td><td>27,382</td><td>&pound;7.1bn</td></tr><tr><td>North East England</td><td>12,202</td><td>&pound;2.2bn</td></tr><tr><th scope="col">Grand Total</th><th scope="col">371,541</th><th scope="col">&pound;148.1bn</th></tr></tbody></table></div><img style="padding-top:2%;" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1725013076/resi/gb/cms/News/Images/jll-new-housing-targets-analysis-picture5.png" /><h2>JLL Research | August 2024</h2><p>JLL is a leading global professional services firm specialising in real estate and investment management, with $16.6bn annual revenue in 2020, operations in over 80 countries and a global workforce of over 90,000. With over 7,000 employees and 15 offices
    in the UK, we support our investor, developer, and occupier clients at every stage of the property lifecycle across both commercial and residential asset classes. This includes land purchase, access to capital, planning, development advisory, leasing,
    building management and sales.</p><p>JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare
    and student housing.</p><p><sup><sup>Disclaimer: &copy; 2024 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.</sup></sup></p>

JLL New Housing Targets Analysis – Targets by numbers - August 2024

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<p>The JLL Big Six Residential Development Report compares activity, prices, and rents across six UK cities outside London: Birmingham, Bristol, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Leeds and Manchester. This report incorporates data from the JLL UK Cities index, comparing
    changes in prices and rents across mainstream and prime developments in each city.</p><p>In the sales market, higher rates, both interest and mortgage, have continued to put pressure on both development viability and buyers&rsquo; budgets. We are beginning to see this reflected in annual price growth across the Big Six cities, with growth
    across the cities remaining flat or marginal over the past year.</p><p>The rental market across the Big Six cities has remained robust, albeit growth has cooled significantly from double digit highs in H1 2023. There is continued demand for city centre living, particularly from young professionals seeking the lifestyle benefits
    and vibrancy of being centrally located.</p><p>Prime markets across the Big Six have generally outperformed both the mainstream sales and rental markets, with new prime stock continuing to push quality and amenity provision.</p><p><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1725291585/resi/gb/Articles/PDFs/Big_Six_Residential_Development_Report_-_H1_2024.pdf" target="_blank"><button class="Button primary" style="text-align:center;">Click here to read more</button></a></p>

Big Six Residential Development Report - Summer 2024

Big Six Residential Development Report

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<p><strong>Budget black holes</strong></p>
<p>Those scrambling to get to the bottom of their to-do list before the summer break will recognise the urgency we've seen in recent days from government as it pushed forward on policy commitments before the summer recess.</p>
<p>We now have a date for the autumn budget, due to take place on 30 October, where the chancellor will attempt to deal with the &pound;21.9bn budget &lsquo;black hole&rsquo;. Spending cuts worth &pound;5.5bn have been announced, means testing will mean
    wealthier (or the least poor) pensioners losing their winter fuel allowance, and several infrastructure projects introduced under the Conservatives have bitten the dust or been firmly pushed into the long grass. Reeves has also committed to selling
    surplus public sector buildings and land. That leaves &pound;16.4bn &ndash; meaning taxes are going up &ndash; although we'll need to wait until 30 October to find out which.</p>
<p><strong>Building more homes</strong></p>
<p>Angela Rayner has fast-tracked the consultation to overhaul the planning process, the announcement scraping in pre-recess on 30 July. The consultation, set to run over the summer, will close on 24 September, with a new National Planning Policy Framework
    (NPPF) promised by the year-end.</p>
<p>Proposed changes to boost delivery include the reintroduction of mandatory housing targets. A brownfield first strategy will remain in place, with expectations that applications on brownfield land will be approved. We are promised clarity on how to define
    'grey belt' land, with any land released from the Green Belt subject to 'golden rules', namely: 50% of homes delivered as affordable housing, an emphasis on access to green space, and a recognition of the need for local infrastructure.</p>
<p>To enable delivery of affordable homes at scale, the government has committed to providing more direct grant funding and certainty around rent stability. A decision on the level of grant funding and rent settlement is promised for the next spending review.</p>
<p>The onus will be on councils to make sure they have robust and up-to-date local plans, setting out land suitable for development. Councils will be expected to have an annually reviewed five-year land supply strategy. Quite a task, as government figures
    suggest just a third of councils have a Local Plan that is less than five years old.</p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1722522572/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-August-1.jpg" /></p>
<p>The government has also set out a new demand model, which will be used to underpin housing targets. This model calls for 370,000 homes per annum nationally, not far off double what we expect will be delivered this year.</p>
<p>There has been some criticism that London will have a lowered target (down from circa. 100,000 to 80,000 homes) but numbers are still significantly higher than the 35,000 homes delivered in the last year and the 52,000 target in the London Plan. Comparing
    numbers in the new demand model still shows the capital would need to increase current delivery by 114%, the highest of any region. For more on the proposed plans <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/proposed-reforms-to-the-national-planning-policy-framework-and-other-changes-to-the-planning-system/proposed-reforms-to-the-national-planning-policy-framework-and-other-changes-to-the-planning-system">click here.</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1722522572/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-August-2.jpg" /></p>
<p><strong>In other news&hellip;</strong></p>
<p>It&rsquo;s been a busy week for housing news outside Westminster too, the biggest being from the Bank of England, with the bank rate dropping to 5% following the August meeting of the MPC. Even prior to the announcement Lifetime Capital saw fixed rates
    breach the sub-4% barrier (albeit with high entry costs). Expect to see more competitive rates emerge in the coming weeks. </p>
<p>Nationwide figures show house prices rose for the third consecutive month in July, with prices up 2.1% annually &ndash; the highest annual figure since December 2022. Mortgage approvals continued to hover around the 60,000 mark in June. This was down
    marginally on May (-0.3%) but up 12% on June 2023.&nbsp;</p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1722522572/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-August-3.jpg" /></p>
<p><strong>Impact on central London</strong></p>
<p>There are mixed messages from the central London market. Our Q2 Prime Central London report shows a softening in prices, with values down 5.2% in the last 12 months. But activity, particularly at the top end of the market, remains robust with the amount
    spent at &pound;5 million or more up 15% in the first six months of the year compared with the 10-year average. </p>
<p>All this at a time when both the former Conservative and current Labour government were advocating changes to non-dom tax arrangements.&nbsp; Again, we&rsquo;ll need to wait until the October budget for a full breakdown, but recent announcements from
    Rachel Reeves suggest they intend to go ahead with many of the plans set out pre-election.&nbsp; From April 2025 new entrants with non-domiciled tax status will receive 100% tax relief on their foreign income and gains for the first four years before
    reverting to the same tax arrangements as a UK taxpayer. Currently this is 15 years rather than four, although benefits begin to erode after seven years, with increased cost to retain one&rsquo;s non-domiciled status. Part of the transition to the
    new rules will include a Temporary Repatriation Facility (TRF) allowing non-doms to bring foreign gains and income held offshore into the UK at a reduced tax rate. </p>
<p>For more on the government&rsquo;s non-dom plans (so far) <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/2024-non-uk-domiciled-individuals-policy-summary/changes-to-the-taxation-of-non-uk-domiciled-individuals">click here</a>.
    And our latest PCL update can be found <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/insights/research/prime-central-london-q2-2024">here.</a></p>

Residential Roundup 1 August

jll-prime-central-london–q2-2024

The new rate cutting cycle has begun with the Bank of England&rsquo;s first rate cut since 2020.

The new rate cutting cycle has begun with the Bank of England’s first rate cut since 2020.

<strong>The new rate cutting cycle has begun with the Bank of England&rsquo;s first rate cut since 2020. Although the drop from a 16-year high of 5.25% to 5% may not have a dramatic impact on mortgage rates in the short term, it will undoubtedly bolster confidence among hesitant buyers particularly if further rate cuts occur in the coming months. Until now the housing market has been surprisingly resilient, but the rate cut, alongside greater political certainty following the July election puts it in a strong position once buyers return.</strong>

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<p>The second quarter didn&rsquo;t pan out quite as we expected back in April, when expectations were erring towards an autumn rather than summer election and odds on a June reduction in the base rate were looking more favorable.&nbsp; </p><p>Having a mid-year election behind us will likely have a positive impact on activity in the prime market in the second half of the year, but the higher proportion of discretionary sellers who can, and indeed did, wait for the election to take place have
    impacted activity levels in Q2.&nbsp; Data from LonRes shows properties going under offer fell 18% in June and new instructions were down 8% annually too.&nbsp; </p><p>The sales market across Prime Central London (PCL) followed usual seasonal patterns, with activity higher than Q1, but homes sold fell back marginally on 2023 levels. Activity rose in the lettings market, with the usual early summer rush adding to applicant
    numbers and absorbing some of the excess stock we&rsquo;d seen enter the market earlier in the year. </p><p>July&rsquo;s Labour victory brought much-needed political clarity, which combined with an improved economic outlook is expected to boost market confidence in the coming months. But for buyers in PCL uncertainty around key areas of government policy,
    particularly on taxation, still require further clarity. &nbsp;Non-dom rules, which both Labour and the Conservatives had vowed to overhaul is just one.&nbsp; Of course, this will only impact a small proportion of PCL buyers. But this, combined with
    the usual exodus to warmer climes in July and August may well mean we&rsquo;ll need to wait until September to see what impact this will have on activity going forward.</p><h2>Prime Central London Overview</h2>
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<div style="overflow-x:auto;" align="center"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="1" align="center" style="width:100%;"><tbody><tr class="red"><th scope="col">PCL Sales market</th><th scope="col">Quarterly change</th><th scope="col">Annual change</th></tr><tr><td>Achieved prices &ndash; Q2 2024</td><td>-2.4%</td><td>-5.2%</td></tr><tr><td>Transactions &ndash; Q2 2024</td><td>16.4%</td><td>-4.9%</td></tr><tr><td>On market for sale &ndash; Q2 2024</td><td>10%</td><td>19.3%</td></tr></tbody></table></div><p>&nbsp;</p>
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<div style="overflow-x:auto;width:100%;" align="center"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="1" align="center" style="width:100%;"><tbody><tr class="red"><th scope="col">PCL Lettings market</th><th scope="col">Quarterly change</th><th scope="col">Annual change</th></tr><tr><td>Achieved prices &ndash; Q2 2024</td><td>0.9%</td><td>2.1%</td></tr><tr><td>New lets &ndash; Q2 2024</td><td>14.3%</td><td>12.8%</td></tr><tr><td>On market to let &ndash; Q2 2024</td><td>5.4%</td><td>29%</td></tr></tbody></table></div><p><sup>JLL Research, LonRes<br /><sup>&copy;</sup> Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved</sup>.</p><h2>Sales Market</h2><p>The latest figures from the JLL Prime Central London index reflect a softening in property values across all price bands in Q2, with the most significant declines in the lower price brackets. The upper end of the market remained relatively insulated due
    to a higher prevalence of cash buyers.</p><p>Sentiment and debt costs impacted on achieved prices in the second quarter, with the JLL PCL Index showing average values fell 5.2% annually. Stock levels have been creeping up since late 2022 and by the end of June 2024, the number of properties for
    sale reached almost 3,900. This is a 19% increase on levels a year prior, driven by both increases in houses and flats listed (+26% and +18% respectively).</p><p>Activity did pick up in Q2, with 16% more homes changing hands than in Q1 and just 5% fewer than in a busy second quarter last year. Indeed, comparing transactions in Q2 this year with the 10-year Q2 average shows 8% more sales. Activity remains higher
    at the upper end of the market too, with the amount spent at &pound;5million+ in the first six months of 2024 14.8% higher than the 10-year H1 average.</p>
<iframe src="https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/18821655/embed" title="Interactive or visual content" class="flourish-embed-iframe" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="width:100%;height:600px;" sandbox="allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation"></iframe><p><sup><sup></sup></sup>
</p><h2>Key highlights:</h2><p><strong>Market Activity:</strong> 4.9% fewer sales were recorded annually in Q2 2024, but despite short term challenges and the unexpected July election volumes remained 8% higher compared to the 10-year Q2 average. </p><p><strong>Record spending at &pound;10m+:</strong> Total spend at &pound;10m+ hit a record &pound;439 million for H1 2024, surpassing the previous high back in 2016.</p><p><strong>Property Values:</strong> The JLL PCL Index showed a 5.2% fall in achieved prices, with a 2.4% decline from Q1 to Q2. Homes priced under &pound;2 million saw the largest quarterly decline in values, down 3.7%.</p><p><strong>Stock Levels:</strong> By the end of June 2024, the number of properties for sale increased by 19% annually, with 26% more houses and 18% more flats on the market compared with the same point a year earlier. </p><p><strong>Discounts:</strong> Average discounts from asking prices eased from 10.3% in Q1 to 9.4% in Q2, reflecting more realistic vendor pricing. </p><p><strong>Lettings Market</strong></p><p>A steady uptick in properties on the market meant rental growth dropped back from double digit high 18 months ago to low single digits, rising 2.1% annually in Q2 2024. However, a rise in applicants means we are seeing much of this excess stock being
    taken up by tenants. </p><p>Quarterly, average rents rose 0.9% from Q1 to Q2 2024. While the lower end of the market continues to see high demand, we are beginning to see increased activity in the top end of the lettings market too. The number of properties let in Q2 up 12.8% annually
    and 14.3% higher than Q1. </p><p>Uncertainty leading up to the general election, alongside higher mortgage rates, means some prospective buyers have opted to rent instead, bolstering demand. Demand for houses rose in Q2, with a quarterly increase in rents of 2.4% (versus 0.6% for flats).</p>
<iframe src="https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/18822064/embed" title="Interactive or visual content" class="flourish-embed-iframe" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="width:100%;height:600px;" sandbox="allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation"></iframe><h2>Key trends in Q2 included:</h2><p><strong>Rental Growth:</strong> Annual rental growth returned to more sustainable levels at 2.1%, with average rents rising 0.9% from Q1 to Q2 2024.</p><p><strong>Stock and Demand:</strong> A steady increase in rental properties on the market was balanced by strong tenant demand. The number of homes let priced at &pound;3,000 or more per week rose by 13.4% annually.</p><p><strong>Market Dynamics:</strong> The ongoing uncertainty related to the general election and higher mortgage rates led some prospective buyers to rent instead, further bolstering demand in the rental market.</p><h2>Outlook</h2><p>Q2 2024 was a period of mixed outcomes for the Prime Central London market. While higher mortgage rates and political uncertainties impacted the lower end, the top-end market showed robust activity and record spending.</p><p>Elevated activity and strong buyer demand in PCL align with an expected improvement in economic conditions and enhanced buyer confidence. The anticipated reduction in the base rate and more favourable mortgage terms from major lenders should foster further
    competition and growth in the market.</p><p>At JLL we forecast PCL will be one of the best performing markets over the next five years. House prices are expected to remain flat in 2024 but see growth of 19.8% by 2028, for rents we expect annual growth of 4.5% in 2024, with rents expected to increase
    by 21.7% between 2024 and 2028.</p><p>&nbsp;</p>

Prime Central London – Q2 2024

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