<p>&nbsp;Our Residential Forecasts 2021 will look to the future and offer valuable insight on:</p>
<ul>
    <li>UK house price and rental value forecasts for the next five years</li>
    <li>Expected future housing starts and levels of transactions over the next half a decade</li>
    <li>Which cities will witness the highest house price growth?</li>
    <li>Will the Covid-19 pandemic trigger large-scale de-urbanisation?</li>
    <li>What role is technology playing to satisfy our increasing needs and wants in our home</li>
</ul>
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<p>Nick Whitten our Head of UK Living Research discusses our latest forecasts in the video below.<br />
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<p style="text-align:center;">Nick Whitten &ndash; Head of UK Living Research</p>
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UK Residential Forecasts – Home is… for everything

Stratford

Our lives now revolve around our homes more than at any point in the past 250 years. In 2020, Covid-19 has accelerated a trend which is making our homes the centre of our lives once again with technology being the great enabler allowing us to satisfy our needs and wants in our homes.

Covid-19 has accelerated a trend which is making our homes the centre of our lives once again with technology being the great enabler allowing us to satisfy our needs and wants in our homes.

UK Residential forecasts – Home is… for everything

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<p>The ongoing global COVID-19 pandemic has put the brakes on promising signs of early growth in Q1 and created significant levels of uncertainty. At present we anticipate more challenges ahead but overall the PCL market should bounce back as the strongest of all UK housing markets.</p>
<p>The report at present predicts a 14.4% five year sales price forecast and a 9.8% five year rental growth forecast.</p>
Want the full picture on Prime Central London&rsquo;s sales and lettings markets? Download the report here for a look at what happened in Q1 and what&rsquo;s to come:<br />
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Prime Central London Q2 2020

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Our research examines where the Prime Central London property market is headed and why now is a good time to invest, read the full report here:

Prime Central London Residential Research Report for Q2 2020

<p>Our latest research reviews the effect of Covid-19 on the Prime Central London market recovery and indicates how now is the best time to invest with potential positive returns over the next five years.</p>

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<h2><strong>Could Covid-19 trigger a growth in live/work units?</strong></h2>
<p>COVID-19 has led to a widespread shift to home working and it seems certain that in the future we will spend much more time working and living in our homes. But will this shift allow for a revisit to delivering purpose built live/work units in the UK &ndash; a concept that emerged in the UK in the 1990&rsquo;s and fell away again by the mid-2000&rsquo;s.</p>
<p>Originally inspired through &lsquo;loft living&rsquo;, the modern concept of live/work housing schemes originated in the United States and was seen as a way to regenerate inner city areas made redundant by the decline of the American manufacturing industry. The appeal for &lsquo;loft living&rsquo; in the 1980&rsquo;s resulted in the gentrification of a number of neighbourhoods in America and appeared in the UK in the early 1990&rsquo;s. </p>
<p>As a concept it was initially welcomed by many Local Authorities in the London area, with several boroughs developing Supplementary Planning Guidance for this development type. This allowed for some element of development control over the separation of &lsquo;live&rsquo; and &lsquo;work&rsquo; areas within the apartments. </p>
<p>As time went on, developers successfully challenged the controls within the guidance, principally the work space requirements and the quantum of affordable housing; which led to scepticism within some planning authorities, with many growing to see the concept as means of overcoming planning controls with projects often reverting to solely residential use.</p>
<h2><strong>Planning</strong></h2>
<p>The main barriers to the live/work product expanding beyond London were founded by these scepticisms. Over time the concept was abused by some as a ruse to get around employment land restrictions whilst not providing actual workspace. Enforcement issues and an inconsistent approach from the Planning Inspectorate on determining appeals led to the concept slowly failing.</p>
<p>In part the confusion surrounded the use class. Live/work is not an easy category to define precisely and is more of a conceptual idea than a precise planning law term and as such is often referred to as sui generis. Conditions have been applied which have sought to secure a continuing ratio between workspace and living space, prevent sub-division and restrict residential occupation to those employed in the linked workspace.</p>
<p>The concept itself complies with a number of the key objectives within the National Planning Policy Framework (&lsquo;NPPF&rsquo;) &ndash; delivering required homes, whilst helping to build a strong competitive economy and making effective use of land. NPPF paragraph 81(d) states when producing planning policies, these should &ldquo;be flexible enough to accommodate needs not anticipated in the plan, allow for new and flexible working practices (such as live-work accommodation), and to enable a rapid response to changes in economic circumstances.&rdquo;</p>
<p>Research suggests that whilst the NPPF appears to encourage flexible accommodation such as live/work, very few schemes have actually been permitted, with those that have consisting of very low-density numbers, often in rural locations.</p>
<p>However, given the COVID-19 pandemic, there is certainly appetite for much more home working.</p>
<h2><strong>JLL Living Priorities Survey</strong></h2>
<p>JLL&rsquo;s recent <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/insights/research/has-covid-19-altered-our-housing-needs">Living Priorities Survey</a> revealed a dramatic shift in our staff&rsquo;s appetite to work from home more in the future. If we are to assume that the wider population shares the same view, it is likely that homes including working areas are now of increased importance which could signal more demand in the market for live/work units.</p>
<h2><strong>Mission Lofts, USA</strong></h2>
<p>Mission Lofts is a newly opened live/work development near Washington DC which has taken mixed-use design to a new dimension and presents a case study for how live/work units could work successfully.</p>
<p>Unlike most other live/work developments, Mission Lofts allows each of the units to be occupied at all time at the tenants&rsquo; choice as either a place to live, a place to work, or a place to do both. Amenities are included, accessible to both residential and commercial renters.</p>
<p>One of the key issues surrounding the success of live/work units in the UK in the past came down to obtaining a mortgage and whether it should be on commercial or residential lending terms.&nbsp;</p>
<p>Mission Lofts&rsquo; success indicates that live/work units may evolve more easily from the purpose-built rental models such as co-living or build to rent. </p>
<p>For the live/work model to exist within the English planning system, it may be that a balance is required between the likes of the Mission Lofts model and the evolving co-living and BTR models that are becoming ever more prominent.</p>
<p>A development which provides flexible work space on a communal floor would give the Local Authority and residents surety as to the product which is getting delivered and as such reduce the potential enforcement headaches for the developers/residents down the line.</p>
<p>In order to monetise the model, there may be potential to lease the flexible workspace to a dedicated workspace provider to generate a secondary income. There may also be potential to allow for a designated restaurant or caf&eacute; operator to be included within the floorspace, providing lunch options to those working. This again may allow for some rental income to be generated.</p>
<p>Ultimately there may be some obstacles that remain for the growth of live/work units in the UK, but with an increasing number of us working from home, working areas are likely to become a more common feature of homes generally. And perhaps this is the kickstart that the live/work model has been waiting for.<br />
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<p style="text-align:center;">Aiden Murray<br />
Senior Planning Consultant - Planning, Development &amp; Heritage<br />
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Associate - Planning, Development &amp; Heritage</p>
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Could Covid-19 trigger a growth in live/work units?

Since the Covid-19 pandemic there has been a forced shift to homeworking. Is this the time to revisit the live/work model in the UK?

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<p>We undertook a survey of JLL employees across Europe to assess whether the extended period spent at home due to Covid-19 has altered the way we feel about our homes.&nbsp;In this first of two blogs, we look at the major shifts in perceptions and preferences. The second will unpick changing work from home expectations and how these translate into housing demands.</p>
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National lockdowns have been a common government response to concerns over the spread of Covid-19, though their stringency has varied across Europe. Our survey sample includes nearly 2,000 respondents from 15 different countries who all have different experiences of lockdown, but one thing is for sure, their time at home has increased. According to Google&rsquo;s Mobility Trends reports, time spent in residential settings within our sample countries was, at its peak, anywhere from 29% to 46% higher than the baseline level.&nbsp;<br />
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<img src="https://weasresicmspd.azurewebsites.net/images/default-source/default-album/graph-1---residential-mobility.png?sfvrsn=a4fc845_0" data-displaymode="Original" alt="Graph 1 - residential mobility" title="Graph 1 - residential mobility" /></p>
<p>In this first blog, we look at how more time spent at home has shaped peoples&rsquo; opinions of their living arrangements and whether they are now more likely to consider moving as a result.</p>
<h2><strong>Moving homes</strong></h2>
<p>The amount of time people are spending at home has encouraged households to think about their living arrangements. One solution to this situation, obviously dependent on financial capacity, is to move home.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>Only 3 in 10 respondents were looking to move home before Covid-19, with a relatively higher rate for renters (38%) and people aged 35-44 (33%). Split by geography, those in the UK &amp; Ireland were actually less likely to be looking to move (22%) whereas German respondents were the most active prospective movers (33%).<br />
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<img src="https://weasresicmspd.azurewebsites.net/images/default-source/default-album/graph-2---moving-homece68f05784544e27a63d37293a459e5c.png?sfvrsn=3f0e3cf2_0" data-displaymode="Original" alt="Graph 2 - moving home" title="Graph 2 - moving home" style="vertical-align: middle;" /></p>
<p>Experiences under Covid-19 lockdowns have changed the landscape. 46% of respondents are now looking to move, though the picture is more muddied at the individual level. One third of those who had been looking are now no longer, perhaps put off by economic uncertainty. Nearly 4 in 10 (37%) of those who had not been looking are now open to moving. </p>
<img src="https://weasresicmspd.azurewebsites.net/images/default-source/default-album/graph-3--location-pref.png?sfvrsn=75918772_0" data-displaymode="Original" alt="graph 3 -location pref" title="graph 3 -location pref" style="vertical-align: middle;" />
<p>Experiences, and expectations for their work-life balance moving forward, have led people to reconsider where they live. Of those now looking to move, only just over half (55%) are looking to change to a similar location, with 38% looking to move further away from the city centre. Unsurprisingly, the desire for more space and the declining importance of an easy commute (based on an expectation for more home working), means that individuals can prioritise the qualities of the home itself, more than just the location in relation to their workplace. In global cities<a href="file:///C:/Users/Himanshi.Luthra/Desktop/2020/August/20200730_Livingprioritiesblog1/TASK%20FOLDERS%20(1)/Insights%20Brief%20-%20Housing%20needs%20and%20resident%20preferences%20across%20Europe%20during%20Covid-19.docx#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1"><sup>[1]</sup></a>, this proportion increased to 41% and rises again to 45% for the Alpha+ global cities of London and Paris. These larger cities tend to offer better suburban and commuter transport links, indicating that people are not looking for wholesale lifestyle changes, but a slight shift in the kinds of neighbourhoods in which they would like to live.</p>
<p><span style="font-size: 10px;"><sup>[1]</sup> As defined by GaWC. Alpha++ (London); Alpha+ (Paris); Alpha (Frankfurt, Madrid, Milan, Brussels, Warsaw); Alpha- (Amsterdam, Dublin, Luxembourg, Munich, Prague, Rome, Barcelona, Lisbon)</span></p>
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<h2><strong>Changing home priorities</strong></h2>
<p>While all those wanting to move may not be able to, our survey does appear to indicate that what we consider to be important in our homes may be changing in light of this shock to our day-to-day lives. Respondents ranked the importance of 14 metrics pre and post Covid-19. The biggest shifts in priorities ranked extremely important were having a personal outdoor space, fast broadband speed and a private workspace.<br />
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<img src="https://weasresicmspd.azurewebsites.net/images/default-source/default-album/graph-4---home-location.png?sfvrsn=5dda12c7_0" data-displaymode="Original" alt="Graph 4 - home location" title="Graph 4 - home location" style="vertical-align: middle;" /></p>
<p>People&rsquo;s now intimate relationship with their homes means many are looking to modify and reimagine their living spaces. Overall, 43% of people would like to adjust, with a strong correlation with age: younger people are most likely (50% aged 18-34) compared to older cohorts (23%; 55+). With renters also more likely to want to modify, it points to the conclusion that older home owners have more space and better work from home environments, which is perhaps unsurprising given they already, on average, spend more time working at home.</p>
<p> Top priorities do, however, vary slightly by country. All regions put <strong>outdoor space</strong>, which could be as little as a balcony or small terrace, and <strong>natural light</strong> among the top 5 most important factors. <strong>Air quality</strong> and <strong>broadband speed</strong> are also seen as important across most regions. Lower down the list of priorities, there is some regional variation: those in Southern Europe, where temperatures are warmer, favour <strong>thermal comfort</strong>, whereas those in the UK &amp; Ireland, Poland and Benelux want to be close to <strong>public outdoor space</strong>.<br />
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<img src="https://weasresicmspd.azurewebsites.net/images/default-source/default-album/graph-5---priorities.png?sfvrsn=69192194_0" data-displaymode="Original" alt="Graph 5  - priorities" title="Graph 5  - priorities" style="vertical-align: middle;" /></p>
<h2><strong style="font-size: 18px;">Longer-term implications</strong></h2>
<p>After weeks and months of housing markets being frozen, this pent-up desire to move is starting to translate into more enquiries, though the economic challenges are putting the brakes on a massive uptick in transactional activity, at least for now. </p>
<p>Anecdotal evidence from real estate agencies is suggesting that some of these home preference trends have already been borne out in both sales and rental market activity across different European markets. How much these strong preferences translate into concrete and long-term demand shifts is still yet to be determined, but one thing is for sure &ndash; the pandemic has heightened an appreciation for good quality homes which meet owner or tenant expectations, which is unlikely to recede. </p>
<p> Click&nbsp;<a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/insights/theme/covid-19"><strong>here</strong></a>&nbsp;to read our latest COVID-19 insights.&nbsp; </p>

Housing needs and resident preferences across Europe during Covid-19

We undertook a survey of JLL employees across Europe to assess whether the extended period spent at home due to Covid-19 has altered the way we feel about our homes.

In the first of two blogs based on our JLL employee survey, we investigate how European experiences of lockdown have altered people&rsquo;s housing needs, their desire to move, and perceptions of the home&rsquo;s most important characteristics.

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<p>New JLL analysis of approximately 900,000 privately rented units across the UK and U.S. reveals rent collection in excess of 94.0 percent in both markets, with occupancy also remaining firm since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Both fundamentals illustrate
    resident prioritization of rent payments and continued tenancy despite mounting hardships. </p><p>Offering income stability and capital-value resiliency through economic downturns, the multifamily sector is commonly regarded as a defensive asset class. Driven by a persistent need for housing and flexible lease terms, contractions tend to be shorter
    while periods of growth are prolonged. For these reasons, 84.0 percent of investors targeted the sector pre-COVID-19, according to our <a href="https://www.jll.co.uk/en/trends-and-insights/research/jll-european-living-investor-survey-what-the-investor-appetite-in-2020">European Investor Survey</a>.
</p><p>The economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic led to immediate consideration for tenants and their ability to pay rent. Encouragingly, multifamily operators have generally chosen to engage with their tenants and to allay concerns and fears during these
    unprecedented times. These actions have highlighted the service-based approach that many multifamily operators provide, in contrast to private landlords across both markets.&nbsp;<br /></p><h2><b>JLL UK And U.S. Rent Collection and Occupancy Portal</b></h2><p>In an effort to guide and inform owners and operators on the current state of the market, JLL Research on both sides of the Atlantic have partnered with nearly 50 firms, accounting for more than 900,000 units, to actively monitor rent collection and occupancy
    rates. The resounding participation by institutional groups in our rent collection effort underscores commitment to performance and investment in the asset class.</p><h2><b>Key factors impacting multifamily performance</b></h2><p>Government intervention has provided near-term stability to the broader economy, aiming to mitigate deeper negative impacts during the recovery period. Select stimulus packages and policies have supported renter finances and associated multifamily operator
    performance:&nbsp; </p><ul><li><b>United States</b>: the CARES Act bolstered unemployment benefits by $600 per week, often lifting incomes higher than historic earnings (due to expire at the end of July). Municipalities have broadly enacted temporary eviction moratoriums and rent
        freezes.
        <br /></li><li><b>United Kingdom</b>: The Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme, puts employees on leave but allows them to stay on their company's payroll. The policy outlines that the UK Government pays 80.0 percent of furloughed employees&rsquo; salaries up to a
        maximum of &pound;2,500 a month.In addition to government programs, property owners and managers are proactively working with tenants experiencing hardships, offering to defer rents or allow early move-outs without lease-break fees.<br /></li></ul><h2><br /><b>Multifamily performance amid widespread economic closure</b></h2><p>Despite historic job losses and economic uncertainty, rent collections have remained strong during the first three full months of COVID-19 disruptions. UK operators captured 96.3 percent of rents, while the U.S. collected 93.9 percent of rents in June.
</p><ul><li>In the<b> United States</b>, analysis demonstrates that premium product outperforms mid-range and affordable product. Such outperformance is largely attributed to a tenant base comprised of higher-income earners employed in industries experiencing
        more muted economic impacts. Additionally, affordable markets &ndash; commonly in the Southern U.S. &ndash; collect nearly 3.0 percent more, on average, than expensive gateways. Underperforming markets continue to be concentrated in entertainment
        hubs and high-cost gateways, while secondary and tech-centric markets lead rent collections.<br /></li><li>Interestingly, the story in the <b>United Kingdom</b> differs from the U.S., with the mid-range market segment posting higher collections to date. Limited variation has occurred from market-to-market, speaking to the overall stability of institutional
        assets nationwide. The most marked shift over the past month has come at the more affordable segment of the UK market, with rent collection increasing by 430bp at the end of June.<br /><br /></li></ul><p><img src="https://weasresicmspd.azurewebsites.net/images/default-source/articles/icons/overall-rent-collection-by-country-updated-graph-(1).png?sfvrsn=42be32c9_1" sf-custom-thumbnail="true" width="752" sf-constrain-proportions="true" sf-size="100" /></p><p>Source:&nbsp;<i>JLL</i></p><p>Shifting occupancy rates also have a significant impact on investor operating incomes. Occupancy rates in both the UK and the U.S. have begun to deteriorate as financially distressed residents opt to move back in with family, or double-up in a shared
    apartment. &nbsp;</p><ul><li><b>United Kingdom</b>: a 100 bp fall in occupancy rates from March to April was common across operators. The tenant base of UK multifamily assets has a strong weighting towards university students and young professionals who may have alternative housing
        options such as living with family. While there was another drop from April to May, there has been a strong recovery in overall occupancy numbers, with an increase of 30 basis points totalling 95.9 percent for June. This recovery has provided
        landlords some assurance that tenants who remain in their portfolio, at least for the time being, have job and financial security and are able to meet their rent payments.<br /></li><li><b>United States</b>: since early April, occupancy rates have declined 244 bps for premium, 77 bps for mid-range and 38 bps for affordable product. The drop in premium asset occupancy occurs as residents increasingly seek more affordable, spacious
        options in suburban submarkets. Additionally, properties recently completed are experiencing longer lease-up periods and widening concession packages. Concurrently, concession packages are more pronounced in urban submarkets than their suburban
        counterparts offering 1.3 percent more on average.&nbsp;</li></ul><div style="margin:15px;"><h2><b>How does this compare with other sectors?</b></h2></div><p><img src="https://weasresicmspd.azurewebsites.net/images/default-source/articles/icons/overall-rent-collection-by-sector-updated-graph.png?sfvrsn=c02eda74_1" sf-size="100" /></p><div style="margin:15px;"><p>Source:&nbsp;<i>JLL</i><i></i></p><p>* based on analysis of EMEA listed sector reporting at the end of Q1. </p><p>** U.S. NAREIT as of May collections</p></div><div>JLL research highlights the resilience and outperformance that multifamily has demonstrated in both the U.S. and UK, to date. Industrial and office have increasingly performed well over the past couple months, as the U.S. economy begins to open up
        once again. Furthermore, as highlighted in the previous graph, rent collection for multifamily in both markets has exceeded expectations and stayed at a consistently high rate throughout the pandemic.<br /><br /></div><h2><b>How will the sector perform in the coming months?</b></h2><p>The strong performance to date has been encouraging for both markets. However, as the financial stimulus packages in the UK and the U.S. begin to taper, there are clear concerns regarding the impact to performance for the remainder of the year. </p><p>Recent developments to the Furlough policy in the UK will mandate employers to pay a greater share of workers&rsquo; salaries. This tapering process will begin from 1<sup>st</sup> August, as employers will be required to pay National Insurance and
        pension contributions for their staff. In September, employers will then pay 10.0 percent of employees' salaries - rising to 20.0 percent in October. Meanwhile, in the United States, the extra $600 per week employment benefit is set to expire
        in late July, reducing incomes and likely hurting low-income earners in a pronounced fashion.</p><h2><b>Hobson&rsquo;s Choice: rent or occupancy?</b></h2><p>Despite this strong performance in H1 2020, it seems certain that investors and operators will face pressure on both rental rates and occupancy.</p><p>Entering the height of the leasing season, operators are unable to push rental rates and are often offering rent-free concession packages of two to eight weeks in the U.S. Additionally, an uptick in month-to-month lease agreements has maintained cash
        flow in the short-term, but leads to near-term uncertainty for operators. Similarly, In the UK, the third quarter is peak leasing season with 40.0 percent of existing tenancies due for renewal in these months. However, some doubts persist on whether
        students will return to universities and in what capacity &ndash; potentially further dampening PRS demand. As UK-based investors and operators will focus on maintaining high levels of occupancy rather than driving rents in the short term, we
        believe that many tenants renewing leases or seeking new living opportunities will attempt to negotiate rents. As such, JLL has adjusted our <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/insights/research/jll-residential-market-forecasts-may-2020">rental forecasts</a> anticipating an average value decline of circa 2.0 percent across the UK in 2020. </p><p>The sector has performed well through the downturn so far and is expected to remain relatively resilient in the coming months. That said, performance of multifamily is dependent on the extent of economic fallout and recovery, particularly once support
        policies are withdrawn or tapered. JLL will continue to monitor and report on key metrics in the U.S., UK and other global markets. It is likely to be a rejuvenated interest from global investors to deploy capital in the sector as economies emerge
        from the crisis.&nbsp;</p><div style="margin:15px;"><img style="display:block;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;" src="https://weasresicmspd.azurewebsites.net/images/default-source/blog---graphs/philip-wedge.jpg?sfvrsn=f5ebaf3c_1" sf-size="100" /></div><div style="margin:15px;"><p style="text-align:center;">Philip Wedge-Bernal &ndash; Associate, EMEA Living Research and Strategy</p><img style="display:block;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;" sf-custom-thumbnail="true" width="488" src="https://weasresicmspd.azurewebsites.net/images/default-source/articles/icons/perez_danielle_b-w_488x180b98c1878b48c4dc3a1a91cccf1e616a7.jpg?sfvrsn=cfdc8a2_1" sf-constrain-proportions="true" sf-size="100" /></div><div style="margin:15px;"><p style="text-align:center;">Danielle Perez&nbsp; &ndash; Manager, Capital Markets Research
        </p></div>

JLL study shows multifamily rent collection and occupancy rates remain resilient on both sides of the Atlantic

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New JLL analysis of approximately 900,000 privately rented units across the UK and U.S. reveals rent collection in excess of 94.0 percent in both markets.

Analysis on UK and US multifamily rent collection and occupancy rates

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<p>After 100 days of lockdown due to Covid-19, the first steps towards the process of recovery are now being taken.</p>
<p>While the social and economic impact of the pandemic has been severe, the reduction in social distancing measures and relaxation of other guidelines are a welcome return to some degree of normality.</p>
<p>In the face of widespread disruption and many challenges, the Living sectors have performed well in recent months. With uncertainty clearing, we anticipate a strong increase in activity and demand across these markets over the rest of the year.</p>
<p>Download the bulletin below to find out more, or get in touch with one of our team&nbsp;</p>
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Q2 UK Living Capital Markets Bulletin

Our UK Living Capital Markets Bulletin provides an update on the Living sectors (exploring the student housing, coliving, multifamily and later living markets), reflecting on the impact of Covid-19 so far and looking forward to the rest of the year.

<p>Our UK Living Capital Markets Bulletin provides an update on the Living sectors (exploring the student housing, coliving, multifamily and later living markets), reflecting on the impact of Covid-19 so far and looking forward to the rest of the year.</p>

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<div></div><div><h2>COVID-19</h2></div><div><p>While Living sub-sectors are driven by many of the same demand characteristics, there are obvious nuances that ensure that the impacts from Covid-19 are likely to be felt differently across the Living spectrum. JLL will continue to monitor the chronology
        of the crisis and use our global reach to identify market insights from the Covid-19 battlegrounds all over the world.</p></div><p>Download our EMEA Living Capital Markets Quarterly Bulletin below.
</p><p>&nbsp;</p><button id="btn-1" class="Button primary">Download Report</button>

Q2 EMEA Living Capital Markets Update

<p>Our Living Capital Markets Bulletin provides an update on the Living sectors (Student Housing, Multifamily, Healthcare and Coliving), as well as highlighting the potential implications of the situation going forward.&nbsp;</p>

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<p>Over the past few months more than half of the world&rsquo;s population have been confined to their homes to combat the spread of Covid-19. The longer the confinement has gone on, the more people have been able to reflect on what they like and dislike
    about their homes. But has this extended period of time at home changed our living priorities?</p><p>We undertook a survey of our staff to assess this. There were more than 1,300 respondents to the JLL Living Survey at the time of writing, including just under 200 in the UK. Respondents in the UK range in age from 20 to 65 and live right across the UK. </p><p>Analysing the results of our UK respondents, our survey reveals two significant findings about the relationship between our staff and their homes.</p><p>1) There is a dramatic shift in our staff&rsquo;s appetite to work from home more in the future</p><p>2) There has been an increase in the number of staff saying they now want to move home and their most important housing priorities have shifted &ndash; private outside space, faster broadband and a private home working area have significantly risen in
    importance.
    <i></i></p><h2><p><b>Working from home</b></p></h2><p>Covid-19 has triggered a widespread temporary shift to homeworking. The below graph shows how often the respondents to our survey worked from home in the past and, crucially, how often they would now like to work from home in the future. Pre-Covid-19,
    79% of survey respondents worked from home less than once per week, and only 2% worked from home 3-4 days per week. Now only 18% of employees would hope to work from home less than once per week and 24% would like to work from home 3-4 days.</p><p><b>Working from home: the new normal?</b></p><p><i>Precovid-19, 79% of survey respondents worked from home less than once per week. Only 18% expect to do so over the next two years&nbsp;</i></p><img src="https://weasresicmspd.azurewebsites.net/images/default-source/blog---graphs/working-from-home-the-new-normal---graphic.png?sfvrsn=31095e1b_1" sf-size="100" /><p>If we were to assume that the wider population shares the same appetite as our staff, what does this mean for the future of the office? Crucially, just 3% of respondents said they would like to work from home full time &ndash; the same percentage as pre-Covid.
    This would indicate that the vast majority of us still want access to an office. But the role of those offices might change. As JLL UK CEO Chris Ireland predicted in a recent interview with Bloomberg, offices could become &lsquo;ideas factories&rsquo;
    where we meet to be collaborative and creative. Humans are by nature social animals and numerous behavioural science studies have demonstrated that cooperation allows us to thrive.</p><h2></h2><h2><b>Productivity</b></h2><p>But alongside this whether we may want to work from home more in the future, perhaps the more significant question is whether we can actually be productive. Understanding productivity &ndash; what does it mean and how do we now measure it &ndash; has
    become a key focus for many businesses. Covid-19 is providing an unprecedented test case for home working, and the results in coming months of how businesses have performed will provide a huge evidence base to analyse productivity. In the past, numerous
    studies into productivity have shown that, in all likelihood, if an employee is productive in the office they are likely to be productive at home and vice versa. There are fundamental management issues when it comes to looking after a remote team,
    but there are some compelling environmental and social benefits that businesses may find hard to ignore.</p><p>Removing millions of commuters per week from the UK&rsquo;s roads and transport networks should significantly reduce the nation&rsquo;s carbon emissions. And there is evidence that working from home can be good for our well-being too. JLL&rsquo;s Manchester
    office has been tracking the health and well being of our staff based in the city over the past few months. Our staff have recorded an average increase of a full nights extra sleep per month, along with improved sleep quality since working from home.
    Furthermore, our staff have seen a 6% improvement in their cognitive performance.<b><u></u></b><i style="font-size:11.25px;vertical-align:sub;background-color:initial;font-family:inherit;text-align:inherit;text-transform:inherit;white-space:inherit;word-spacing:normal;caret-color:auto;"></i></p><h2><p><b>Moving home and changing priorities</b></p></h2><p>Pre-Covid-19, 22% of our respondents were looking to move. However, that number has now increased to 45%. Of those looking to move, 42% would like to move away from an urban area; 1% would like to move towards an urban area and 57% would move within a
    similar area to their current home. </p><p>There is much debate around whether Covid-19 will spark a rush in demand from people now wanting to move home. Indeed Zoopla reported recently that buyer demand across England increased by 88% after the housing market reopened, exceeding pre-lockdown
    levels. And Rightmove recorded its busiest day ever since it launched in 2000 on Wednesday 27th May with more than six million visits to its website, 18% up on the same day last year.</p><p>Our survey does appear to indicate that what we consider to be important in our homes may be changing. We asked respondents to rank 14 metrics based on importance pre and post Covid-19. The biggest shifts in priorities ranked extremely important were
    having a personal outdoor space, fast broadband speed and a private workspace.</p><p><b>Living priorities have changed in light of Covid-19&nbsp;</b></p><p><i>Largest shifts seen across private workspace, personal outdoor space and broadband speed compared with pre-Covid sentiment&nbsp;</i></p><img src="https://weasresicmspd.azurewebsites.net/images/default-source/blog---graphs/graph-2-living-priorities.png?sfvrsn=86b8daa5_5" sf-size="100" /><h2><b>Temporary or permanent?</b></h2><h2><b></b></h2><p>Will the shifts identified by our survey ultimately prove to be temporary or permanent? Some of the results in this survey may well have been skewed by the fact that respondents were answering while they were still in the &lsquo;eye of the storm&rsquo;.
    For this reason we will continue to revisit this survey in the coming months to see whether people truly have shifted their housing needs, or whether their current attitudes will begin to fade as they return to &lsquo;normal&rsquo; life.</p><p>Click&nbsp;<a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/insights/theme/covid-19"><b>here</b></a> to read our latest COVID-19 insights.&nbsp;</p><img src="https://weasresicmspd.azurewebsites.net/images/default-source/articles/kimberly-markiewicz-for-website.jpg?sfvrsn=866e0088_1" style="display:block;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;" sf-custom-thumbnail="true" width="488" sf-constrain-proportions="true" sf-size="100" /><p style="text-align:center;">Kimberly Markiewicz&shy; &ndash; Senior Research Analyst - UK Living Research</p>

Has Covid-19 altered our housing needs?

neighborhood-watch-paddington-900-600

Has lockdown changed our living priorities? We undertook a survey to assess whether this extended period spent at home due to Covid-19 has altered the way we feel about our homes. 

<p>Has lockdown changed our living priorities? We undertook a survey to assess whether this extended period spent at home due to Covid-19 has altered the way we feel about our homes.&nbsp;</p>

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<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><span style="color: red;">Disclaimer:</span> <em>The Covid-19 pandemic has created a material uncertainty in real estate investment market performance. Across Europe, there is considerable variation in the extent of the human implications unfolding and their impact on economic activity, including the trajectory, duration and extent of these impacts on all real estate sectors. Varying recent and ongoing policy responses across the region and mitigating implications will differ by market and sector. </em></p>
<p><em>As a result, caution should be applied to usage of our latest market forecasts contained within this document.</em></p>
<h2><strong>JLL forecasts UK house prices to fall by 8% in 2020</strong></h2>
<p>Predicting the full impact of Covid-19 on the performance of the UK housing market is a complicated exercise. The steps taken to contain Covid-19 have led to a steep contraction of the economy. The Bank of England and the Office of Budget Responsibility
are predicting the UK could face its deepest recession in 300 years. However, the Government has taken unprecedented steps to protect businesses and households with the aim of enabling the economy to grow quickly again.</p>
<p>Ultimately the longer it takes to fully return to &lsquo;normality&rsquo;, the more severe the recession will be. Hopes of a more immediate V-shaped recovery are fading fast. The great unknown of how long this crisis will last remains the key challenge
&nbsp;in arriving at a robust housing market forecast. </p>
<p>We have assumed Covid-19 will continue to impact our ability to go about our daily lives throughout the remainder of 2020 and into 2021 and ultimately until a vaccine is widely in circulation. We have also taken account of the growing signs of economic
scarring with a significant rise in unemployment now expected in 2020.</p>
<p>There will be regional variations to our forecasts of course with some parts of the country more affected than others. And, at a more local level, there will be some areas that are more resilient and perform better. There is an upside potential to our
forecasts. For example, a new Government stimulus response could trigger a stronger than anticipated bounce in home buying demand.</p>
<p>However, there are downside risks also. For example, if it&nbsp; takes longer to find a Covid-19 vaccine or a Hard Brexit could ensue.</p>
<h2><strong>Subdued sales and starts</strong></h2>
<p>The housing market has re-opened for business and there may be a small bounce in sales due to pent-up demand. But there remains continued uncertainty as well and this is &nbsp;expected to leave buyer sentiment subdued for much of the remainder of 2020
and running into early 2021. Due to the extent of the recent full market closure and the continued social distancing measures we expect annual transactions to drop to around 650,000 in 2020 from 1.2m in 2019 &ndash; below the bottom of the Global
Financial Crisis when transactions fell to 750,000 in 2008/09. Annual transaction volumes would be expected to start growing again from the second half of 2021 as confidence gradually starts to return, getting back to around pre-Covid levels of just
below 1.2m by around 2023. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, we expect UK new housing starts to plummet to 80,000 in 2020, well below the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, when starts bottomed out at 100,000. New home completions should fare slightly better as housebuilders prioritise these in the short
term. However, social distancing will extend the length of time it takes to deliver a traditionally built new home by up to 50% compared with pre-Covid-19 which will create a fundamental dampening effect on new supply.</p>
<p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">JLL home sales and housebuilding forecasts May 2020</span></strong></p>
<p><img src="https://weasresicmspd.azurewebsites.net/images/default-source/articles/forecasts-table-1-18-05-202fa0f02c301248ff8b43a11f0aaadab7.png?sfvrsn=dae900c_1" sf-size="100" /></p>
<p><em style="font-size:11.25px;vertical-align:sub;background-color:initial;font-family:inherit;text-align:inherit;text-transform:inherit;white-space:inherit;word-spacing:normal;caret-color:auto;">*Regional and locational variations will apply</em></p>
<h2><strong>London prices to recover more quickly</strong></h2>
<p>The UK housing market has effectively now been re-opened for business following an unprecedented drop-off in new buyer activity over the past two months. Once the dust settles, the buyers who remain active this year will typically be more opportunistic in nature and will seek to secure a deal. However, the Government&rsquo;s job protection schemes should limit the number of forced sellers. As a result, we forecast this will lead to price falls of circa 8% in 2020, around half the level of falls
witnessed in the global financial crisis.</p>
<p>Across Greater London we expect price falls will be similar to the UK average in 2020. However, the most exclusive Prime Central London (PCL) market, which has already seen several years of weak performance and is now looking &lsquo;good value&rsquo;
relative to other global prime markets, should see lower falls of 4% off a very low base of sales activity.</p>
<p>Prices are expected to recover more quickly in Greater London and PCL, led by a spike in demand from investors and opportunistic owner-occupier buyers.</p>
<p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">JLL house price forecasts May 2020</span></strong></p>
<p><img src="https://weasresicmspd.azurewebsites.net/images/default-source/articles/forecasts-table-2-18-05-20a7d2cd108ca341b8aa9e113c185a6fda.png?sfvrsn=d206b514_1" sf-size="100" /></p>
<p><em style="font-size:11.25px;vertical-align:sub;background-color:initial;font-family:inherit;text-align:inherit;text-transform:inherit;white-space:inherit;word-spacing:normal;caret-color:auto;">*Regional and locational variations will apply</em></p>
<h2><strong>Rental falls expected but BTR more resilient</strong></h2>
<p>The UK&rsquo;s circa 5m private rental households are expected to feel disproportionate pressure on their incomes due to the Covid-19 crisis. This will particularly be the case for those employed in the hospitality and retail sectors, who have a much
greater difficulty working from home. We expect that, in the Q3 peak letting season, many of these lower income PRS households will look to negotiate down rents resulting in average value falls of circa 2% across the whole UK rental market in 2020.</p>
<p>However, these falls will be tempered by an increase in rental demand from people opting to delay their purchasing ambitions over the short-term and we forecast that positive rental value growth should start to return from 2021.</p>
<p>And as with the sales market, there will be regional variations in performance. The Build to Rent sector should also prove more resilient for several reasons. Longer average tenancy lengths mean BTR customers are less likely to be facing a tenancy break
in the short term. Our research also shows that BTR customers earn c 30% more than the UK average salary shielding them somewhat from short-term pressures on their incomes.
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 16px; color: inherit;"></span></p>
<p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">JLL Rental Market Forecasts May 2020</span></strong></p>
<p><img src="https://weasresicmspd.azurewebsites.net/images/default-source/articles/forecasts-table-3-18-05-20f4a67ade1aa34290835a1fdffd838a63.png?sfvrsn=98d6a195_1" sf-size="100" /></p>
<p><em style="font-size:11.25px;vertical-align:sub;background-color:initial;font-family:inherit;text-align:inherit;text-transform:inherit;white-space:inherit;word-spacing:normal;caret-color:auto;">*Regional and locational variations will apply</em></p>
<p>To access more Covid-19 insights click&nbsp;<a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/insights/theme/covid-19" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">here</a></p>
<p><img src="https://weasresicmspd.azurewebsites.net/images/default-source/articles/nick-whittenff5b6a2f02024effbe2728cd4bd0c4c8.jpg?sfvrsn=aea2d7eb_1" style="display:block;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;" sf-size="100" /></p>
<p style="text-align:center;">Nick Whitten &ndash; Head of UK Living Research</p>

JLL forecasts UK house prices to fall by 8% in 2020

We revisit our 2020 Residential Forecasts in light of the Covid-19 pandemic, discussing its likely impact on house prices, transactions, housing starts and the rental market in the UK over the next five years.

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<p>Reading, Maidenhead and Slough present great opportunities for owner-occupiers, investors, renters and residential developers owing to their excellent connectivity and attractive pricing compared to the Capital. <br /></p><p>Currently, each of these towns boast connections to London Paddington (with a journey time of under 30 minutes) and with Crossrail due to become fully operational in 2022, London&rsquo;s employment hubs will be more accessible than ever.<br /></p><p>The outlook for the Western Corridor is very positive. The Covid-19 pandemic has created uncertainty for the future but the underlying story is one of progression and dynamism. We expect both house price and rental growth will outpace the UK and the South
    East over the next five years.&nbsp; <br /></p><p>Want the full picture on the sales and lettings market in the Western Corridor? Download the full report below:</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><button id="btn-1" class="Button primary">Download Report</button>

Western Corridor - 2020

Our Western Corridor report predicts a positive future for the residential market in Reading, Maidenhead and Slough.

<b>Our Western Corridor report predicts a positive future for the residential market in Reading, Maidenhead and Slough.</b>

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<p>The Prime Central London sales market accelerated into early 2020 following the General Election in late-2019, but the coronavirus pandemic slowed activity in March and will significantly impact Q2 2020. Similarly, a strong start to the 2020 Prime Central
    London lettings market was curtailed abruptly by the impact of the coronavirus.</p><p>At present, the report predicts a 15% five year sales price forecast and 11% five year rental growth forecast and examines the significant impact of Covid-19 on the economic and housing markets.</p><p>Want the full picture on Prime Central London&rsquo;s sales and lettings markets? Download the report here for a look at what happened in Q1 and what&rsquo;s to come:</p><p>&nbsp;</p><button id="btn-1" class="Button primary">Download Report</button>

Prime Central London Q1 2020

Our latest research reviews how a positive start to 2020 was stopped in its tracks by the global coronavirus pandemic.

<b>Our latest research reviews&nbsp;how a positive start to 2020 was stopped in its tracks by the global coronavirus pandemic.</b>

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<p>Living is now the <b>second largest</b> real estate sector in Europe, accounting for <b>&euro;73bn</b> of investment across the continent in 2019.</p><p>Building on last year&rsquo;s report where we sought to understand global investment appetite into European Living assets (student housing, coliving, multifamily, affordable housing and healthcare), this year&rsquo;s report identifies critical shifts
    in the attitudes and intentions of investors in this space.</p><p>Our recent findings demonstrate that appetite for Living investment continues to grow across the continent and sub-sectors, with investors focusing on sustainable assets.</p><p>This year&rsquo;s survey brings further transparency of the challenges and opportunities in this market, enabling investors to make informed decisions.</p><h2>Key results from the 2020 survey include:</h2><ul><li>Appetite for Living investment is growing across the continent and sub-sectors&nbsp;</li><li>Over two thirds of investors have ambitions to expand into new European markets (69%) and new Living sub-sectors (67%)</li><li>Respondents believe Living investment volumes will grow in 2020 following stabilisation in 2019&nbsp;</li><li>Coliving is the sub-sector set most likely to benefit from this growth, with 95% of investors expecting to see more liquidity in the coming year</li><li>Almost all (94%) investors believe that future Living investment will be focused on sustainable assets&nbsp;</li><li>Most investors view the value of sustainable assets in terms of retaining their value (87%) and&nbsp;future proofing returns (83%).</li></ul><p>&nbsp;</p><h2>Covid-19</h2><p>The 2020 JLL European Living Investor Survey was open for responses from early December 2019 until 31st January 2020, before the outbreak of Covid-19. The subsequent spread of the virus across the globe and Europe has caused widespread economic and social
    disruption, with serious but as yet uncertain impacts on Living real estate investment. JLL Research is monitoring these effects and will be reporting on market impacts as they emerge.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><button id="btn-1" class="Button primary">Download Report</button>

JLL European Living Investor survey

Our latest European Investor Survey, supported by Aberdeen Standard Investments, analyses the investor appetite for the Living asset class across Europe.

Our latest European Investor Survey, supported by Aberdeen Standard Investments, analyses the investor appetite for the Living asset class (student housing, coliving, multifamily, affordable housing and healthcare) across Europe.

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