Prime Central London Report - Q3 2024

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The JLL Q3 2024 Prime Central London Report tracks activity across the central London housing market. The report incorporates the results of our quarterly JLL Prime Central London Index.

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<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1734604013/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Christmas-Chart1.png" /></p><p><strong>More new homes</strong></p><p>The new National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) was introduced as an early Christmas present last week. Housing targets, based on the new approach to housing need first mooted in July, are now mandatory. The word of the day appears to be flexibility,
    with the NPPF confirming that councils will be required to review green belt boundaries if they cannot meet housing need from non-green belt land first. Any land defined as &lsquo;not strongly contributing&rsquo; to the green belt could be brought
    into scope. </p><p>There appears to be more flexibility too on affordable housing targets, with a blanket affordable housing requirements of 50% on some sites proposed in the July draft. New plans look instead at a 15% uplift over the current highest policy requirement,
    with the 50% being used as a cap rather than threshold. </p><p>But planning reform is just one part of the housing delivery puzzle, we&rsquo;ll need a Christmas miracle and plenty more construction elves to ramp up delivery to meet target in the short term.&nbsp;</p><p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1734604013/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Christmas-Chart2.png" /></p><p><strong>Christmas present</strong></p><p>Those hoping to put a new home under the Christmas tree this year will be paying more than they were a year ago.&nbsp; All the key house prices indices are reporting growth. The Nationwide index showing prices have risen 3.7%, the Land Registry 3.4% and Halifax 4.8% in the last 12 months. All marginally higher than our 2024 expectations back in May, with JLL forecasting growth of 2% growth in 2024. </p><p>We are seeing more activity in the sales market. The number of homes sold in October 2024 was the highest since 2020, with the number of sales up 23% on 2023 levels. This follows a similar trend to the one we&rsquo;ve been observing for a few months now, with the number of transactions recorded between April and October 2024 up 11% on the same period a year earlier. Mortgage approvals are on the rise too. With the latest figures for October the highest since 2022. &nbsp;</p><p>For rents the ONS Index, which includes new and existing tenancies, is showing rental growth of 9.1% in the 12 months to November, with Homelet (new lets only) reporting an annual increase of 2.2%.&nbsp;</p><p></p><p><strong>What do we predict for 2025? </strong></p><p><strong>A busy start to Q1</strong></p><p>First-time buyers can save up to &pound;6,250 and existing owner occupiers up to &pound;2,500 in SDLT when buying a &pound;500,000 home before 1 April 2025. Expect a flurry of deals pushed through in Q1 2025 (and a bit of a lull post). But buyers will
    need to get their (ice) skates on to secure a home before the deadline with less than a third of homes going under offer in January traditionally completing before the start of April. </p><p><strong>House prices will rise</strong></p><p>The latest monthly survey from the RICS points to further growth in prices as we move into 2025. Reported as a balance of opinion (a positive balance means more saying they think they&rsquo;ll rise than fall) a net balance of +47% of respondents expected
    prices will rise over the next 12 months, with views on price growth positive for all UK regions.</p><p>Demand appears to be rising too, with a net balance of +12% of agents reporting an increase, the fifth consecutive month posting a positive reading. This is also reflected in the outlook for sales activity, with a net balance of +19% expecting more sales
    over the next three months and +33% over the next 12. </p><p>Here at JLL we expect house prices will rise by 20% over the next five-years, with rents expected to increase 17% over the same period. To read more on our forecasts <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/insights/news/jll-residential-forecast-2025-2029">click here.</a></p><p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1734604013/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Christmas-Chart3.png" /></p><p><strong>Rental growth returns to low single digits</strong></p><p>For lettings, tenant demand remained broadly flat in November, with the RICS reporting a net balance of -1%. This has grabbed some headlines being the first negative reading on tenant demand since 2020. Despite a drop off in demand (to be fair November is never a busy month for lettings) more agents reported a further fall in landlord instructions, meaning the outlook for rental growth remained positive. A net balance of +29% of respondents to the survey expecting rents to rise in early 2025. </p><p><strong>Mortgage rates will fall (a bit)</strong></p><p>Despite average mortgage rates edging up over the last couple of months expectations remain that we&rsquo;ll see further rate cuts as we move into 2025. Five-year swap rates edged down in early December, 44bps lower than they were a year ago and down on recent post-budget highs. As expected, the Monetary Policy Committee held rates at 4.75% at their 19<sup>th</sup> December meeting, but consensus forecasts suggest we should see three further 25bps drops in the bank rate in 2025.&nbsp;</p><p><strong>Mortgage activity increases</strong></p><p>UK Finance have just released their forecasts for 2025.&nbsp; They expect gross mortgage lending will rise 11% next year. Remortgaging is expected to rise 30% with lending for house purchase up 10% to &pound;148 billion. Only new buy-to-let lending is expected to fall, with lending of &pound;9 billion forecast, 7% lower than 2024 levels. But this follows a stronger than expected year for new buy-to-let lending, with borrowing expected to end the year 13% up on 2023 levels. </p><p><strong>Here&rsquo;s to 2025</strong></p><p>That&rsquo;s a wrap on 2024. All that&rsquo;s left is for us to wish you all a very merry Christmas and all the best for 2025 from us here at JLL Residential.</p><p>&nbsp;</p>

Residential Roundup – Christmas 2024

<strong>With the Christmas break in sight this, our last Roundup of 2024, looks back over the year and ahead at what we can expect in 2025.&nbsp;</strong>

With the Christmas break in sight this, our last Roundup of 2024, looks back over the year and ahead at what we can expect in 2025. 

<p><strong>News that stamp duty bills are rising for most buyers from April 1<sup>st</sup> has brought a few more house hunters out in December than usual. But for most minds are elsewhere, meaning that gleaning much from the property tea leaves can be difficult at this time of year. </strong></p><strong></strong><p><strong>With the Christmas break in sight this, our last Roundup of 2024, looks back over the year and ahead at what we can expect in 2025.&nbsp;</strong></p>

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London Development and BTR Report - Autumn 2024

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<p>The Older People&rsquo;s Housing Taskforce Report published this week by the MHCLG flagged stamp duty as holding back activity in the later living market (it mentions it 17 times in the exec summary alone). We need between 30,000 and 50,000 new later
    living homes per annum but only currently build around 7,000. &nbsp;The report suggests introducing stamp duty incentives or equalising first-time buyer and &lsquo;last-time buyer&rsquo; rates for those looking to downsize could increase activity
    and allow older households to move to more suitable properties. Read more <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-older-peoples-housing-taskforce-report/our-future-homes-housing-that-promotes-wellbeing-and-community-for-an-ageing-population#annex-a-combined-set-of-recommendations-for-older-peoples-housinghomes-ophlater-living-housinghomes-llh">here.</a></p><p>We&rsquo;re unlikely to hear more on incentives until the Spending Review this coming spring, but until then we thought it was worth looking at rates, who pays and where revenues are coming from. </p><p><strong>Broader shoulders in higher value markets</strong></p><p>Property transaction tax (the majority of which is residential SDLT) is expected to bring in &pound;12.8 billion in the year to March 2024, rising to &pound;25 billion per annum by 2030 according to the OBR. Property transaction tax receipts are forecast
    to be around 40% higher than the much-discussed inheritance tax take over the next five years. </p><p>Total residential receipts in year to March 2023 (2024 data is still only provisional) were &pound;11.7 billion.&nbsp;Comparing total residential receipts with the number of transactions shows a rise in revenue per transaction of 72% over the past decade,
    outpacing price growth by around 20 percentage points.</p><p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1732891743/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Nov29-Chart1.png" /></p><p>Of the &pound;11.7 billion total, &pound;4.5 billion came from London sales. London buyers account for 59% of receipts, despite London sales being just 11% of the total nationally. </p><p>The two most expensive London boroughs contributed &pound;1.45 billion to HMRC coffers, with &pound;690 million from sales in Kensington &amp; Chelsea and &pound;765 million from Westminster, 12.4% of national totals. Indeed, the top ten local authorities
    in terms of receipts contributed 26% of the total SDLT take. Eight of the top ten were London boroughs, with the remaining two high value Buckinghamshire and Elmbridge.</p><p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1732891743/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Nov29-Chart2.png" /></p><p><strong>Home movers</strong></p><p>Stamp duty rates are most straightforward to understand for home movers purchasing their sole residence. Purchasers pay SDLT at differing rates dependent upon the proportion of the sale price which falls within each bracket. From April 2025 the rate at
    which buyers start paying SDLT returns to &pound;125k, down from &pound;250k currently (known as the nil-rate threshold). This will add &pound;2,500 to the stamp duty bill for someone buying a &pound;500,000 home. </p><p><strong>First-time buyers</strong></p><p>Current rules mean first time buyers purchasing homes at up to &pound;625k have a higher threshold before they start paying stamp duty, saving buyers at the upper price limit &pound;11,250 compared with rates from April 2025. Currently those purchasing
    homes up to &pound;625k don&rsquo;t pay stamp duty on the proportion of the home priced at below &pound;425k, in April 2025 this falls back to the previous limit of &pound;300k. </p><p><strong>Additional homes</strong></p><p>Higher Rates on Additional Dwellings (HRAD) accounted for &pound;4.2 billion of SDLT receipts in the year to September 2024, almost 50% of total receipts over the 12-month period.&nbsp; Following the autumn Budget those purchasing an additional property
    will pay a higher SDLT bill.&nbsp; With the previous 3% surcharge rising to 5% at midnight on Budget day. The SDLT cost to purchase a &pound;500k home as a UK resident now &pound;37,500, up &pound;10k on pre-Budget levels. </p><p><strong>ATED</strong></p><p>Annual Tax on Enveloped Dwelling, or ATED for short, is levied on residential properties owned by non-natural person, in most case those held within a company structure. It applies predominantly to properties valued at &pound;500,000 or more with the
    owner required to have the property valued every five years.&nbsp; An annual charge is then levied depending on the property&rsquo;s value. These range from &pound;4,400 a year for homes valued at &pound;500k to &pound;1million, to &pound;287,500
    for homes worth more than &pound;20 million (figures for 2024/25 financial year). On top of the annual charge properties purchased by &lsquo;non-natural persons&rsquo; attract a 17% SDLT rate. There are exemptions and reliefs available for certain
    assets so well worth taking advice.</p><p><strong>Buying multiple properties</strong></p><p>Multiple Dwellings Relief (MDR) was abolished under the previous government. Aimed at transactions where there was more than one dwelling, essentially the purchaser paid SDLT on each property at an individual rate per property, rather than on the total
    purchase price. But without MDR most buyers purchasing six or more residential properties now buy through non-residential SDLT.&nbsp; This approach treats the purchase as a single asset, with buyers paying 0% on purchases up to &pound;150k, 2% on
    purchases between &pound;150k and &pound;20k and 5% on purchases over &pound;250k. </p><p>For more information on stamp duty rates <a href="https://www.tax.service.gov.uk/calculate-stamp-duty-land-tax/#!/intro">click here.</a></p><p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1732891743/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Nov29-Chart3.png" /></p><p>&nbsp;</p>

Residential Roundup - 29 November

Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) has been in the news quite a bit recently.&nbsp; Those buying additional properties are paying more post-Budget and changes in the zero-rate threshold will mean added costs from April 2025 for all buyers.

Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) has been in the news quite a bit recently.  Those buying additional properties are paying more post-Budget and changes in the zero-rate threshold will mean added costs from April 2025 for all buyers.

<strong>Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) has been in the news quite a bit recently.&nbsp; Those buying additional properties are paying more post-Budget and changes in the zero-rate threshold will mean added costs from April 2025 for all buyers.</strong>

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<p>The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics show the UK economy all but plateauing in Q3, with economic growth of 0.1% recorded, below the 0.2% forecast and lower than the 0.5% figure for Q2. Understandably the Chancellor is disappointed
    with these numbers and will be hoping that with the budget behind us we&rsquo;ll see more activity and a shift away from pre-Budget inertia. </p><h2><strong>Wages rising</strong></h2><p>Annual growth in weekly earnings rose 4.8% in the three months to September, according to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics. Wage growth remained above inflation, rising 1.4% in real (inflation adjusted) terms. These figures support
    assertions by the Bank of England that some heat is coming out of the labour market as we move towards the end of the year and remains in line with expectations. </p><h2><strong>The latest from the RICS</strong></h2><p>In contrast to the lacklustre economic news, the latest RICS survey showed some signs of cautious optimism in the housing market. The headline net balance (remember the RICS report on balance of opinion so anything in positive territory suggests more
    agents reporting a rise than a fall) for new buyer enquiries was positive for the fourth consecutive month, albeit little changed from September at +12%. Sales activity looked to be edging up too, with a net balance of +9% of agents reporting an increase.
    This is the third consecutive monthly rise, following broadly negative readings since early 2022. Outlook on price growth remained positive too, with the net balance of agents expecting prices to rise over the next 12 months increasing to +20% in
    October, up from +12% the month prior. </p><p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1731679600/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Rise-Q4.png" /></p><p>For lettings, results from the October survey show tenant demand rising in the three months to October, with more respondents seeing an increase than a fall, returning a positive net balance of +19%. But there were fewer landlord instructions, possibly
    reflecting pre-Budget caution from landlords, with a net balance of -29% of agents reporting a fall in the three months to October.&nbsp; The most negative figure for three years. Unsurprisingly, with demand increasing and fewer instructions, respondents
    were more optimistic about the prospect for rent rises in the coming months. A balance of +33% of agents expecting rents to rise over the next three months. </p><p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1731679599/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Rent-Rises.png" /></p><p>The ONS rental index (all lets) shows rents up 8.4% annually, but new lets (via Homelet) are showing a 3.4% annual increase nationally. For sales, Nationwide show prices up 2.4% annually with Halifax figures suggesting higher growth of 3.9%. </p><h2><strong>Base rates fall but fixed rates rise</strong></h2><p>In the run up to the Monetary Policy Committee meeting on 7<sup>th</sup> November most were forecasting a further reduction in the base rate.&nbsp; Even with a mixed reaction following the budget this view didn&rsquo;t waiver much and was confirmed with
    a 25bps reduction.&nbsp; The MPC members voting eight to one to reduce rates (the one voting to stick). But messaging from the MPC suggests chances of a further 2024 reduction when they next meet on 19<sup>th</sup> December remain slim. </p><p>The November drop is good news for those on variable or tracker rates, but for those shopping for fixed rates a rise in swap rates, which started to build pre-Budget, means a host of lenders have increased their fixed rates.&nbsp; At the time of writing
    most sub 4% five-year fixes have been pulled from the market, rates are still lower than the 4.7% best-buys a year ago but expect them to sit slightly higher until we have some clarity on swaps. &nbsp;</p><h2><strong>Starts drop in London</strong></h2><p>A new approach to measuring housing need in London suggests we should be targeting 80,000 completions a year in the capital. But<strong> </strong>Molior London figures show housing starts in London so far this year (January to September) are down 53%
    on the ten-year average. Figures from the GLA show the number of affordable housing starts in the six months to September 2024 fell 23% on 2023 levels, with just shy of 2,700 affordable homes completed. Over the same six-month period there were just
    582 GLA-funded affordable homes started, up on 2023 levels but nowhere near target. Expect continued scarcity in the London new homes market until we see an uptick in activity. </p><h2><strong>Updated JLL forecasts</strong></h2><p>Back in May our revised forecast coincided with the announcement of a UK General Election and in November we were upstaged again when our forecast launch fell on the same day as the US election.</p>
<p>So, for those who may have missed it, our updated 2025 to 2029 forecast expects activity to
increase steadily from 2025 onwards, with prices up 20% and rents up 17% by the end of the five-year forecast period. To read more on our latest outlook for 2025-2029 <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/insights/news/jll-residential-forecast-2025-2029">click here.</a></p><p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1731677711/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Outlook-Price-Rent.png" /></p>

Residential Roundup - 15 November

It&rsquo;s been a busy couple of weeks since we last updated you following the UK Budget. Trump is heading back to the White House, the Bank of England has dropped the bank rate 25bps to 4.75%, and here at JLL we&rsquo;ve released our latest house price forecasts.

It’s been a busy couple of weeks since we last updated you following the UK Budget. Trump is heading back to the White House, the Bank of England has dropped the bank rate 25bps to 4.75%, and here at JLL we’ve released our latest house price forecasts.

<p><strong>It&rsquo;s been a busy couple of weeks since we last updated you following the UK Budget. Trump is heading back to the White House for a second time, the Bank of England has dropped the bank rate 25bps to 4.75%, and here at JLL we&rsquo;ve released our latest house price forecasts. The latter obviously grabbing the lion&rsquo;s share of headlines&hellip;.</strong></p>

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Prime Central London Report - Q3 2024

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