Zoopla is reporting sales agreed in the four weeks to mid-June are up 6 per cent annually, but stock levels continue to rise more quickly than demand, meaning increases in activity are not driving significant price rises.House prices Nationwide's house price index shows prices dipped 0.8 per cent in June compared with May, meaning annual growth in prices dropped back from 3.5 per cent in May to 2.1 per cent last month. Expect to see annual averages increase a little in the coming
 months as the market continues to settle.Zoopla reported asking prices rose 1.4 per cent annually in May, with stock on the market up 14 per cent year-on-year. This outpaced new buyer demand, rising by 7 per cent over the same period. Higher value markets saw the most marked increase in stock
 for sale, with activity at the top end of the market more sluggish than at the lower end. Prices in areas where house prices average under &pound;200k rose 2.7 per cent compared with falls of 0.7 per cent in areas where prices top &pound;500k.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1751631279/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-July4-Chart1.png" />Market activity Mortgage approvals numbers began to recover in May, rising 3.9 per cent month-on-month on a slow April and 3 per cent higher than May 2024. But these numbers point to a steady rise in activity rather than a significant uptick. Average rates paid on new
 loans fell in May to 4.47 per cent with sub-4 per cent rates now available for both two- and five-year fixes for those with higher deposits. Forecasters are still anticipating up to two further rate cuts this year, taking the bank rate to 3.75% by
 the year end, but uncertainty around swap rates means that we are not expecting to see further significant falls in best buy rates in the near term.Following a slow post-SDLT April, transactions recovered in May. Seasonally adjusted figures show there were 25 per cent more sales in May than April, but volumes remained 12 per cent lower than the May figure a year ago.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1751631279/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-July4-Chart2.png" />What does this mean for our outlook? The time taken to sell a home (from listing to completion) now exceeds 200 days according to research by TwentyEA. This means homeowners listing their homes today would be expected to pick up the keys to their new home in late January 2026.As well as increasing the likelihood of a sale falling through &ndash; time is often the killer of deals - this means that prices achieved on completion for homes in 2025 will largely reflect offers already accepted by vendors. As a result, even if we see a pick-up in activity later in the year, with more competitive mortgage rates and improved buyer confidence increasing activity, this uptick will be reflected in the 2026 rather than 2025 stats.Our forecasts for this year, made back in November, were for a gradual recovery in prices, aided by more competitive mortgage rates and political certainty following a Labour majority at the General Election. While the benefits of a strong majority have been tested in recent weeks and the outlook for the UK economy remains underwhelming, the housing market continues to follow a path of slow but steady recovery.Despite the stamp duty changes muddying the waters more recently, we are leaving our current forecasts for 3.5 per cent annual growth in UK prices in 2025 unchanged. Similarly, our expectations that higher value markets would lag in 2025 are still evident in the latest house price data, meaning we still expect that price growth in London will be more modest, rising by 2.5 per cent in 2025.A different story in Central London The only market where we are revising our 2025 forecast is Central London. Ongoing uncertainty around government plans to tax (or not) non-doms on their global assets means fewer prospective buyers at the top end of the market this summer. Here at JLL we've seen 8 per cent fewer new applicants registering with our offices in Q2 this year versus last, with LonRes data showing the numbers of sales so far this year at &pound;5million or more are down 14 per cent and &pound;10million plus sales down 20 per cent.Sold prices (excluding new homes) fell 3.9 per cent annually across Prime Central London in Q2 2025, meaning our expectations for 3 per cent growth by the year end is increasingly unlikely. Additional tax liabilities for overseas buyers and those buying additional properties from April, alongside ongoing uncertainty around the non-dom regime, are all impacting buyer appetite. A U-turn on the exposure of non-doms' global assets to UK inheritance tax could help, but many will be waiting for further clarity before making their decision to stay, go or relocate. In the meantime, buyers remain cautious and stock levels in the second-hand market, up 13 per cent annually, are outstripping demand.Relative scarcity of stock in the new homes market in central London means we are not seeing any notable reduction in prices, but activity remains skewed towards owner-occupiers and needs-based purchasers rather than investors, with sales volumes lower than historic norms.We expect some markets - particularly those neighbourhoods more reliant upon high-net-worth overseas buyers - will see prices end the year lower than they started, but others could see small single digit annual increases this year. This means overall we expect prices to be flat in 2025, with growth of 2 per cent forecast in 2026.The slowdown in rental growth experienced across most UK markets is following the path we forecast in November, so we'll be maintaining our current forecast for growth nationally of 3.0 per cent in 2025.JLL ResearchJLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare and student housing. Disclaimer: &copy; 2025 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.

Residential Roundup - 4 July

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Three months on from the March stamp duty deadline and the housing market is gradually emerging from the SDLT fog. Zoopla is reporting sales agreed in the four weeks to mid-June are up 6 per cent annually, but stock levels continue to rise more quickly than demand, meaning increases in activity are not driving significant price rises.

Three months on from the March stamp duty deadline and the housing market is gradually emerging from the SDLT fog. 

Three months on from the March stamp duty deadline and the housing market is gradually emerging from the SDLT fog.

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The Renters&rsquo; Rights Bill (RRB) proposes significant reform within the private rental sector. The bill itself has been making fast progress through Parliament, having already passed through the House of Commons. It is now widely expected to come
 into effect from this spring onwards.&nbsp; Whilst the bill contains added flexibility to tenants, Landlords retain much needed protection around possession and annual rental increases. The bill is intended to even the balance and is expected to encourage greater long-term security for both Tenants
 and Landlords. Key parts of the bill include;<ul><li>The abolishment of Section 21 notices, and the ending of Assured Shorthold Tenancies (ASTs).</li></ul><ul><li>Tenancies to become periodic by default, and Tenants can serve 2 months&rsquo; notice at any time. </li></ul><ul><li>Rent payment/collection limited to one month in advance.</li></ul><ul><li>Rent increases to be restricted to once per year (twelve months from previous increase) via a Section 13 notice.</li></ul><ul><li>Tenants can challenge rent increases deemed above market via the First Tier Tribunal.</li></ul><ul><li>Rent agreed cannot be higher than the advertised property price. <s></s></li></ul><ul><li>Tenants have the right to request a pet and that request cannot be unreasonably refused. </li></ul><ul><li>Landlords will be prohibited from discriminating against tenants who receive benefits or have children residing with them or visiting their premises.</li></ul><ul><li>Awaab&rsquo;s Law will apply to the Private Rented Sector (PRS) rather than in social housing only. </li></ul><ul><li>Decent Homes Standard will also apply to the PRS. </li></ul><ul><li>There will be a requirement for Landlords to sign up to a Landlord Redress Scheme as well as a PRS database. </li></ul><ul><li>A written tenancy agreement will need to be provided to all Tenants.
 As your trusted letting agent, JLL are already taking steps to prepare for this upcoming change and have successfully guided thousands of clients through previous legislative changes, most recently the Tenant Fees Act (2019). We will work with
 you, endeavouring to ensure that your needs are met and minimise any concerns following the introduction of the upcoming changes. <s>&nbsp;</s>Below is the current timeline and summary of key changes that are expected to take effect. We have also answered some of the key questions that our clients and partners have been asking.&nbsp;</li></ul><div style="text-align:center;"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1750783186/resi/gb/Articles/Images/RRB_-_progression_chart_-_Jun.png" />&nbsp;</div><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1750783032/resi/gb/Articles/PDFs/RRB_JLL_updates_Jun_Chinese.pdf" target="_blank"><button class="Button primary">Download Mandarin Version (点击获取中文版)</button></a>
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<h2></h2><h2>WILL IT AFFECT ALL RENTAL PROPERTIES?</h2>The vast majority yes. Most Landlords rent to individuals and receive a rent of under &pound;100,000 per year making their tenancy an Assured Shorthold (AST), so these changes will apply to most Landlords in England. Landlords renting to company Tenants
 or receiving rent exceeding &pound;100,000 per year will continue to be exempt as the bill will not apply to company or contractual (Non AST) tenancies.<h2>WHEN WILL THIS TAKE EFFECT?</h2>Once the bill passes into law, it will apply to new and existing tenancies, defaulting fixed term tenancies to periodic immediately. It should be noted that existing tenancies with clauses for future rent increases and/or break clauses will no longer
 apply as the new legislation takes precedent.<h2>HOW LONG CAN MY TENANT(S) STAY IN MY PROPERTY?</h2>As above, leases will no longer have a fixed end date and will roll over indefinitely until a valid notice is served by Landlord or a Tenant. Tenants will have a minimum twelve month protected period.<h2>WHAT HAPPENS IF I NEED MY PROPERTY BACK?</h2>Current Section 21 notices will no longer exist and will be replaced by an existing (evidence based) Section 8 notice framework. Landlords needing to sell or move themselves or their immediate family into a property, can do so under a newly extended notice
 period of four months, which cannot be served until eight months after a Tenant takes occupancy, guaranteeing them one year minimum. Landlords must be prepared, and able, to provide evidence of their need for possession and will be prohibited from
 marketing their property for rent for twelve months from the date the notice expires. These requirements are to ensure notices remain legitimate. How such evidence might be called on or presented remains unclear at this time.<h2>BREAKCLAUSES IN GENERAL</h2>Tenants will be able to give Landlords two months&rsquo; notice at any point once they have moved in. Whilst not ideal the cost, time, and effort of moving home means few Tenants would have any interest relocating and would be expected to remain much
 as they do now, moving only when circumstance require change so Landlords should not be too concerned here.&nbsp; Outside of Landlords wishing to sell or move in, Landlords will be permitted to serve notice should their Tenant breach their rental contract. A list of notices covering breaches can be <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/guide-to-the-renters-rights-bill/82ffc7fb-64b0-4af5-a72e-c24701a5f12a">viewed here</a>.<h2>RENTAL PAYMENTS AND ARREARS</h2>All rent will be payable monthly only. All advance payments will be prohibited. JLLs due diligence and processes ensure 97% of all JLL client rental monies are received within three working days of due date and 99.8% paid within 30 days of any due date.Tenant arrears of three months will enable Landlords to serve four weeks&rsquo; notice. <h2>WHAT ABOUT STUDENTS AND OVERSEAS TENANTS?</h2>The same applies. Despite it being widely accepted that the student market is higher risk, there is no exemption in the bill at present. Landlords are advised to consider rent protection insurance policies or guarantors to offset any risk.<h2>ADVERTISING AND INCREASING RENTS</h2>When marketing, Landlords will no longer be able to accept a rental offer or bid that exceeds the advertised property price.Landlords will be able to propose market rent increases annually using a Section 13 notice, providing two months&rsquo; notice to Tenants. Tenants may challenge the increase via the First-Tier Tribunal Service (FTT), if they feel it exceeds market value.The FTT are unable to increase rent beyond the Landlords proposed amount but may rule the same amount (or lower) to determine an impartial market valuation. The increased rent will take affect from the date of the ruling (or a following date set by the
 FTT, typically the next due date). Crucially, it will not be backdated to the Section 13 expiry date. How long a ruling will take is not clear, but reports suggest it could be up to six months. There are concerns this may encourage Tenants
 to challenge increases. Fair market linked increases will reduce Tenants challenging annual increases. <h2>PETS</h2>Landlords can no longer reasonably refuse pets but can require Tenants to acquire appropriate pet insurance. A Landlords superior lease that prohibits pets might be considered a reasonable reason to refuse for example. &nbsp;<h2>PENALTIES AND FINES</h2>Up to &pound;7,000 for first time offences and &pound;40,000 for more serious and repeat non-compliance.&nbsp;&nbsp;

Renters Rights Bill Update – June 2025

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The Renters&rsquo; Rights Bill (RRB) proposes significant reform within the private rental sector. The bill itself has been making fast progress through Parliament, having already passed through the House of Commons. It is now widely expected to come into effect from this&nbsp;spring onwards.&nbsp;

The Renters’ Rights Bill (RRB) proposes significant reform within the private rental sector. The bill itself has been making fast progress through Parliament, having already passed through the House of Commons. 

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This wasn&rsquo;t unexpected, with the impact of higher energy costs alongside annual increases in council tax and rail fares contributing to the 3.5 per cent rise.The optimist&rsquo;s view is that this could be short lived though, with Ofgem announcing a 7 per cent reduction in the energy price cap between July and September this year, compared to a 6 per cent rise in the three months to June.&nbsp;Higher than expected CPI figures follow news that the UK economy grew by 0.7 per cent in Q1 2025, above the 0.6 per cent forecast and 0.1 per cent recorded in Q4 2024. But policy change, both domestically and internationally, means the path for the remainder
 of 2025 is far from clear, with the impact of employer NI and tariffs still to play out in the GDP figures in the coming months.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1748531146/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-May30-Chart1.jpg" />Housing marketThe post-stamp duty change hangover appears to have been short lived, with the latest figures from Zoopla showing the number of sales agreed in May at their highest level for four years and up 6% on 2024. Sellers are returning to the market too, with
 new listings up 6% and stock on the market 13% higher than at the same point a year ago. The latest ONS figures for March show average UK house prices rose 6.4 per cent annually to &pound;271,000, equating to a &pound;16,000 increase on March 2024. First time buyer prices rose 7.1 per cent, outpacing growth for home movers (5.4 per cent).
 Although it is worth noting the impact of the 1 April stamp duty change on these figures. For rents, the ONS Private Rents Index showed an annual increase in rents of 7.4 per cent in the 12 months to April 2025. This is down from 7.7 per cent in March but continues to remain elevated compared with new let indicators, with April figures from
 Homelet up just 0.3 per cent annually.&nbsp;<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1748531146/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-May30-Chart2.jpg" />Time to rethink incentives? The government has made clear commitments to building more homes and improving the quality and efficiency of our existing housing stock. However, the responsibility for building this stock lies predominantly with housebuilders, who have responsibilities
 to their shareholders and need to ensure there is a market for any homes they deliver. Whether that be for open market sale, investment, or sales to affordable housing providers. The cost to improve existing stock also lies (a few government subsidies aside) with property owners. Whether that be housing associations or other social housing providers, who need to improve stock without any demonstrable increase in rents, or owners
 in the private sector.The government has clear ambitions to achieve a blanket EPC C+ rating for the private rented sector and social housing, but if we are serious about encouraging and rewarding improvements, we&rsquo;ll need to rethink how we approach this going forward.
 New homes are already a step ahead, with 97% of new homes delivered having an EPC of C or above, with 86% rated A or B in Q1 2025.&nbsp; This compares with 6% EPC A or B and 52% EPC C for existing homes. To encourage purchasers to buy new and more energy efficient homes, or to reward homeowners for investing in improving the energy efficiency of their homes should we be offering Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) incentives to encourage activity and improvements?Cutting SDLT by 50% for A or B rated properties, and by 25% for those rated C could provide a clear incentive for buyers and rewards sellers too. Those bringing homes to market at EPC C or above may be more likely to attract buyers due to lower running
 costs and reduced purchase costs. What difference could this make? If implemented, a first-time buyer purchasing a home at &pound;500,000 could save &pound;5,000 buying an EPC A or B rated home, with home-movers paying &pound;7,500, compared with &pound;15,000 for a home rated D or below. Perhaps a harder sell for government
 would be applying this to investors too, but if we are looking to improve the quality and efficiency of our rental stock offering the same reduction in SDLT would further encourage the purchase of more efficient homes. An investor buying a &pound;500,000
 EPC A or B rated property would still be paying four times the SDLT of a first-time buyer, but saving &pound;20,000 compared with an EPC D home.&nbsp;<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1748531146/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-May30-Chart3.jpg" />But what about the black hole? We understand that discussions on tax breaks at a time when government finances are increasingly stretched could be challenging.&nbsp; However, even if stamp duty take per property fell, more activity means the difference between overall receipts may not be as significant. Indeed, encouraging activity in the housing market brings in far more revenue than SDLT alone, providing a boost for the wider economy as well as helping to deliver more better-quality homes. We&rsquo;ll hopefully know more following the June Spending Review, but in the meantime, we hope that the Government are considering demand and as well as supply when thinking about how to deliver more homes.JLL ResearchJLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare and student housing. Disclaimer: &copy; 2025 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.

Residential Roundup - 30 May

Discover the latest market insights from Marcus Dixon in this week's Residential Roundup

UK inflation, which had been coming in below forecast earlier this year, spiked according to the latest April figures.

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The negative reaction to the tariffs rippled through the money markets. Trillions of dollars were wiped off the value of global stocks, but news of a pause saw the markets breathe a sigh of relief, with single-day gains of 9.5 per cent for the S&amp;P
 500 and 12 per cent for the tech-heavy Nasdaq, although worth noting still not back to their pre-'Liberation Day' highs. Similar rebounds occurred across the Asian markets, and closer to home, the FTSE 100 rose 6 per cent, but remains 5 per cent lower
 than on 1 April.The pausing of variable tariffs arguably has less of a direct impact on the UK, as in essence we are in the same position here as we were before 9 April. The UK's more passive approach over the last week should curry favour with the White House, with
 much pinned on the potential for further negotiations in the coming days and weeks. But arguably some of the UK's 'advantage' in being a lower tariff trading partner could be watered down; we'll need to see how negotiations pan out. What does this all mean for the UK economy and housing market? There was better news on the state of the UK economy in February, with monthly GDP growth of 0.5 per cent, up from 0 per cent in January. But economically February seems a long time ago, with the wider impact of tariffs, employer NI and increases in utility
 bills and council tax all likely to impact GDP figures in the coming months.US tariffs, whatever numbers are eventually settled on, are likely to have a negative impact on growth for economies outside the US &ndash; and possibly for the US too. Inflation rates outside the US could drop back as exports become more expensive and
 goods previously destined for the US find their way to more tariff-friendly shores. Whatever happens, the &pound;9.9bn headroom from the Spring Statement looks set to be challenged, meaning further tweaks to taxation could be on the cards at the next
 fiscal event in the autumn. But as the last seven days have proven, a week is a long time in politics (and economics), so we'll need to wait and see what the ramifications are for the UK in the longer term.Mortgage rates dropTariff-induced uncertainty has impacted bond yields and the interbank lending rate, with two-year swaps at their lowest level since Liz Truss was in No.10. This means forecasters now expect the Monetary Policy Committee could reduce the bank rate up to
 four times this year, up from a consensus forecast of just two rate cuts back in March.Mortgage lenders have reacted, with Barclays, TSB, and Coventry Building Society amongst others cutting rates by more than 25 bps, with best-buy two and five-year fixed rates now available at sub 4%. This could prove positive for the UK government too,
 with lower debt servicing costs if rates fall more quickly than anticipated.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1743090226/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Apr11-Chart1.jpg" />Housing marketIn the short term at least, it is likely that the 1 April Stamp Duty deadline will have contributed more to the Q2 outlook for the housing market than tariffs. Figures from the Nationwide suggest house prices were 3.9 per cent higher in March than they
 were a year earlier, with growth flat compared with February. Halifax were a little more downbeat, with prices down 0.5 per cent month-on-month and up 2.8 per cent annually.The latest survey from the RICS released this week remained gloomy. New buyer demand dropped back in March, with a net balance of -32 per cent of respondents reporting a drop in new buyer demand, down from -16 per cent the previous month.As is often the case following an increase in Stamp Duty costs, expectations on activity in the short term remain subdued, with more respondents (a net balance of -18 per cent) expecting fewer agreed sales in Q2.More agents reported an increase in stock reaching the market, but this had also dropped back, with a net balance of +6 per cent in March compared with an average of +17 per cent average over the last six months. This is all impacting the short-term outlook
 for prices, with a higher proportion of agents expecting prices will fall over the next three months. But looking at the next 12 months, some positivity remains, with +39 per cent of respondents expecting prices would be higher in 12 months' time.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1743090226/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Apr11-Chart2.jpg" />Rental marketThe outlook was more positive for the rental market. Tenant demand is increasing as we move into the Spring, with the March RICS survey reporting a net balance of +20 per cent of agents who had seen tenant demand rise in Q1, with expectations on rental increases also remaining in positive territory at a net balance of +31 per cent. Stock levels remain constrained, with a net balance of 24 per cent of agents reporting a drop in new landlord instructions. Homelet data shows average UK rents for new lets rose to &pound;1,288 per month in March, up 1 per cent on February. Average rents on new lets were 2.0 per cent higher in London and 3.5 per cent higher in the rest of the UK on an annual basis.JLL ResearchJLL is a leading global professional services firm specialising in real estate and investment management, with $16.6bn annual revenue in 2020, operations in over 80 countries and a global workforce of over 90,000.&nbsp; With over 7,000 employees and 15 offices in the UK, we support our investor, developer, and occupier clients at every stage of the property lifecycle across both commercial and residential asset classes. This includes land purchase, access to capital, planning, development advisory, leasing, building management and sales. JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare and student housing. Disclaimer: &copy; 2025 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.

Residential Roundup - 11 April

News that the first Universal theme park in Europe would be built in Bedfordshire was not the biggest roller coaster announcement this week. That accolade was reserved for Trump's tariffs.

News that the first Universal theme park in Europe would be built in Bedfordshire was not the biggest roller coaster announcement this week. That accolade was reserved for Trump's tariffs. At the time of writing (an important caveat right now), the US has announced a 90-day 'pause' on implementing variable tariffs on all countries bar China.

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There was better news beyond 2025, with the OBR upgrading their outlook for GDP growth from 2026 onwards, averaging 1.75 per cent per annum from 2026 to 2029. Fiscal headroom is expected to be restored to just shy of &pound;10bn by 2029/30, albeit still
 tight in historic terms, leaving the door open for further tax hikes, or at the very least tweaks, later in the year.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1743090226/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Mar27-Chart.jpg" />Inflation comes in below expectation at 2.8 per centIn what must have been welcome news for Labour&rsquo;s front bench the latest inflation figures, released on the day of the Spring Statement, showed CPI dipping below 3 per cent to a lower than forecast 2.8 per cent in February. Core inflation (the measure
 which strips out food and energy) also defied expectations as it dropped back from 3.7 per cent in January to 3.5 per cent. The OBR forecast that inflation will be higher than it previously expected this year, with 2025 CPI now expected to average 3.25 per cent, 60bps higher than the October forecast &ndash; a result of higher than anticipated rises in the cost of energy and
 food.
The jury is still out on what this means for the next meeting of the MPC &ndash; remember they chose to hold rates at the last one &ndash; but we expect that a further two to three 25bps cuts could still be on the cards in 2025. Housing as a driver of growthThere were more namechecks for housing than we&rsquo;d expected in the Spring Statement, cementing housebuilding&rsquo;s role in Labour&rsquo;s growth plans. We were already aware of some of the government&rsquo;s announcements, including an additional
 slug of funds for affordable housing and money to support recruitment and training for the under-resourced construction sector, but the OBR view on the impact of planning reform made for interesting reading, too. Building the construction workforce (&pound;600m)Combining government ambitions to build more homes with the considerable work underway to retrofit UK housing stock and rectify building safety has left the UK construction workforce stretched, before we even consider the significant increase in activity
 needed to get close to the Government&rsquo;s 1.5 million homes target. But our construction workforce is ageing and set to shrink further at a time when demand is rising. To stem this Rachel Reeves has announced a &pound;600m investment in training the construction workers of the future. This investment is intended to provide 60,000 additional construction workers by 2029. The creation of a new Constructions Skills Mission
 Board will be set up to oversee the plans, with funds also being allocated for 10 new technical colleges and &pound;165m earmarked for existing colleges to enable them to deliver more construction courses. More money for affordable housing (&pound;2bn)<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1743177166/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Mar27-Chart3.jpg" />A &pound;2bn top up for affordable housing was announced pre-Spring Statement. The money is earmarked to provide an additional 18,000 affordable and social homes, equating to just over &pound;111,000 per property. The &pound;2bn follows two recent top
 ups totalling &pound;800m and is intended to provide a bridge between the 2021-2026 Affordable Housing Programme and the new grant funding scheme set to be announced at the spending review in June. Touching distance of 1.5 million homes&hellip;The OBR report provided some punchy forecasts for housing delivery, albeit coming with some degree of uncertainty and a fair few caveats. Revisions to the National Planning Policy Framework is expected to permanently increase the level of real GDP by
 0.2 per cent by 2029/30 and boost housebuilding by 170,000 homes over the next five years. OBR forecasts five-year UK-wide net additions ranging from 1.2 million (its low scenario) to 1.3 million (its high). Although worth noting this not only falls short of the 1.5 million target, but also that the target (1.5m) applies to England only. With
 England accounting for around 85% of UK net additions this suggests we could see between 1 million and 1.1 million homes delivered against the 1.5 million target. More work needs to be done to unlock housebuilding, and while planning reform is part of that solution we&rsquo;re holding out (and calling) for more demand side stimulus at the Spending Review in June. JLL ResearchJLL is a leading global professional services firm specialising in real estate and investment management, with $16.6bn annual revenue in 2020, operations in over 80 countries and a global workforce of over 90,000.&nbsp; With over 7,000 employees and 15
 offices in the UK, we support our investor, developer, and occupier clients at every stage of the property lifecycle across both commercial and residential asset classes. This includes land purchase, access to capital, planning, development advisory,
 leasing, building management and sales. JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare
 and student housing. Disclaimer: &copy; 2025 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as
 to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any
 means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right
 to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.

Residential Roundup - 27 March

Entering government Rachel Reeves committed to just one fiscal event a year. Yet in the run up to this Spring Statement it felt more like a mini budget as we braced for the Office for Budget Responsibility end-of-term report on the UK economy.&nbsp;

Entering government Rachel Reeves committed to just one fiscal event a year. Yet in the run up to this Spring Statement it felt more like a mini budget as we braced for the Office for Budget Responsibility end-of-term report on the UK economy. 

Entering government Rachel Reeves committed to just one fiscal event a year. Yet in the run up to this Spring Statement it felt more like a mini budget (hopefully not like the last one) as we braced for the Office for Budget Responsibility end-of-term report on the UK economy.&nbsp;Conditions are looking a little gloomier, at least in the short term. The outlook for UK GDP growth was cut from 2 per cent to 1 per cent for 2025. But the OBR had until now been more bullish on UK GDP than many other forecasters, with the consensus forecast on 2025 GDP growth sitting at 1.1 per cent pre-statement, closer to the revised OBR view.

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<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1741365078/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Mar7-Chart1.jpg" />TransactionsThe SDLT rush is evident in transactions figures, with just over 95,000 homes changing hands in January across the UK, 14% higher than the same month a year earlier. This is the highest January figure since 2022 and marginally up on the 10-year January
 average. House pricesThe impact on house prices is less clear cut. Figures from the Nationwide index show house prices rose 3.9% in the year to February 2025, up 0.4 percentage points month-on-month. The Halifax index shows a marginal slowing in February, with prices down
 0.1% monthly and up 2.9% annually. But we could see the rate of growth fall a little in March. More first-time buyers, who are generally purchasing smaller (and often less expensive) homes, means we could see the overall average fall in March and
 potentially rise in April &ndash; as a result it remains prudent to not place too much emphasis on monthly fluctuations in prices this spring.Mortgage approvals The pre-SDLT rush was evident earlier in the mortgage stats, with the time taken to complete a sale meaning those wanting to beat the deadline would need to have been well progressed by early 2025. In late 2024 we saw annual increases in net mortgage
 lending almost 50% higher than they were a year earlier. True, 2023 wasn&rsquo;t a busy year, but the acceleration in activity was particularly evident in Q4.&nbsp; Lower rates helped, but first-time buyers were busy with their brokers too. The latest
 numbers from the Bank of England show mortgage approvals rose 19% annually in January 2025, with UK Finance showing a 16.4% annual increase in loans to first-time buyers in Q3 2024.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1741365078/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Mar7-Chart2.jpg" />The death of leasehold?Commonhold isn&rsquo;t new; it was introduced back in 2004 as part of the Commonhold and Leasehold Reform Act 2002, but most new developments completed since continued to adopt a leasehold ownership structure. This looks set to change, with the Government publishing a White Paper proposing replacing leasehold with commonhold for new flatted developments (the sale of new leasehold houses has already been stopped). A consultation on how this could be introduced is set to take place in the coming months. Under a commonhold ownership structure, homeowners would effectively own the freehold of their individual unit, with the freehold of the building held by the building&rsquo;s commonhold association. Each owner would be a member of their building&rsquo;s commonhold association and would be expected to contribute to overall maintenance and running costs, similar to a leasehold service charge. No ground rent would be payable. Plans are afoot, too, to make it simpler for existing owners of leasehold properties to convert to commonhold, although this is a more challenging prospect than imposing the new structure on new build homes. Big Six The latest data from Zoopla shows annual rental growth fell from 3.9% in Q4 2024 to 3.0% in their latest Q1 release. The lowest level for more than three years, it follows a significant increase in rents over that period. This &lsquo;normalisation&rsquo; in the rental market has been evident for some time. Stock levels per agent have risen from recent lows but are still down on pre-pandemic norms. There are still 12 enquiries for every rental home according to Zoopla, with the number of homes to rent per agent averaging 13 in February 2025, up from a low of 10 in 2023, but still below the longer run average of 16 between 2017 and 2021. Our recently released JLL Big Six Residential Development Report shows a similar trend.&nbsp; The report tracks changes in prices and rents across mainstream and prime developments in six cities outside London: Birmingham, Bristol, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Leeds and Manchester.Average annual rental growth across the Big Six stands at 4.2%. New stock coming to the market continues to demand higher rents, however more balance between supply and demand has meant average growth returning to single digits in all six cities.Interest rates have remained higher than expected and continue to impact development viability and buyers&rsquo; budgets through higher mortgage rates. Average prices for new build apartments have risen 2.1% across the Big Six. Markets with lower average prices, notably Birmingham and Glasgow, have seen the highest price growth.After a sharp slowdown in the first half of 2024, the Big Six build-to-rent market had its most active second half since 2021, bringing full-year investment to &pound;1bn. Though reflecting a 12% year-on-year decline, it was a strong finish to 2024.To read the latest JLL Big Six report <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/insights/research/big-six-residential-development-report-winter-2024-25">click here.</a>Build-to-rent and UK livingIt is not just the Big Six where build-to-rent activity rose at the back end of 2024. With &pound;5.4bn invested nationally in 2024, BTR activity was up 9% on 2023. Across all sectors of UK living investment rose 5% year-on-year to &pound;13.9bn. There were more than 230 deals completed in 2024, 16% above the five-year average.An uncertain outlook for build and debt costs contributed to drop in forward funding deals, falling 26% below the five-year average, the lowest level since 2018. At the same time, forward purchases and investments in standing stock rose 31%. Domestic investors led the pack, with 44% of total living investment originated in the UK.To read more on our outlook for UK living in 2025 <a href="https://www.jll.co.uk/en/trends-and-insights/research/living-outlook-market-dynamics">click here.</a>

Residential Roundup - 7 March

The clock is ticking for those looking to take advantage of stamp duty savings before rates revert to previous levels on 1 April. First-time buyers have the biggest incentive, particularly those purchasing more expensive homes.

The clock is ticking for those looking to take advantage of stamp duty savings before rates revert to previous levels on 1 April. First-time buyers have the biggest incentive, particularly those purchasing more expensive homes. The threshold at which first-time buyers no longer benefit from relief drops from &pound;625,000 to &pound;500,000, with the nil rate dropping from &pound;425,000 to &pound;300,000. This means someone purchasing a &pound;500,000 first home would see their stamp duty bill increase from &pound;3,750 in March to &pound;10,000 in April.&nbsp;

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The &pound;300m injection is forecast to deliver 2,800 homes (equating to roughly &pound;107,000 per home), but recent analysis of the housing waiting list shows the number of households on the list topped 1.33 million at last count (March 2024), up 43,000
 in 12 months. Meaning that to build the 43,000 homes required just to keep the list at 2023 levels would have required &pound;4.6 billion in funding at &pound;107,000 a home. If we look to tackle the 1.33 million households on the waiting list it
 would take 21 years at current affordable housing delivery rates to build enough homes, before we even consider new entrants over that period.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1739544753/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Feb14-Chart1.jpg" />Fiscal headroom disappearingThe outlook for the UK economy has become more challenging in the last few weeks. The Bank of England cut the base rate (hurrah!) but were pessimistic about the UK&rsquo;s growth prospects. Their expectations for GDP growth in 2025 cut from 1.5% to 0.75%.
 Of course, the Bank are not the only forecasters, with the latest consensus forecasts remaining north of 1%, but we expect to see a more tempered short-term outlook emerge in the coming weeks. The Office for Budget Responsibility will deliver their next forecast to parliament on 26 March. The combined effect of weaker economic growth and higher borrowing costs expected to have significantly reduced Rachel Reeves&rsquo; &pound;10bn of fiscal
 headroom.But fears of a recession in the second half of 2024 have been allayed by news that UK GDP grew by 0.4% in December, up from 0.1% in November.&nbsp; This means estimates for Q4 2024 have tipped (marginally) into positive territory at 0.1% growth, higher
 than the 0.1% contraction forecasters were expecting in a recent poll by Bloomberg. Annually GDP is estimated to be 1.5% higher in December 2024 than it was a year earlier, with full year estimates lower at 0.8% year-on-year.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1739544753/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Feb14-Chart2.jpg" />Increased construction activity contributed to the latest growth figures. Government estimates suggest construction output rose 0.5% in the three months to December 2024 compared with the three months to September. The rise in activity was led by new work, which increased by 1.2%, with repairs and maintenance activity falling marginally by 0.4%. Private new housing was one of the main drivers in the growth in new work, rising 1.3%. Positive news for the sector but still 20% lower than the post-pandemic peak in September 2022.&nbsp; The return of the sub 4% fixBoth Santander and Barclays have announced new 3.99% fixed rates deals, signalling the return of the sub-4% mortgage which has been absent from the market for a few months now (although with a hefty fee and low loan-to-value). It&rsquo;s hoped that breaching the psychological sub 4% barrier will bring more home movers, who had become accustomed to record low rates, back to the market. Fewer home movers have meant the proportion of first-time buyers in the market has risen significantly. UK Finance figures crunched by Halifax show there were more than 340,000 first-time purchases in 2024, up 19% on 2023. First-time buyers accounted for more than half (54%) of mortgaged purchases last year, a record high since the data was first collected back in 2014.&nbsp; Latest from the RICSThe proliferation of lower rates will be good news for activity in the housing market, but in their absence the latest RICS Survey shows a tentative start to the year in January. Activity in the sales market remained broadly flat last month, with the same number of respondents reporting new buyer enquiries rising than falling in January. Here at JLL we&rsquo;re in the (marginally) more positive camp, with data from our offices showing a modest uptick in new applicants registering so far this year, up 6% on the same period in 2024.Sellers continue to return to the market, with more respondents (a balance of +25%) reporting an increase in new instructions, higher than the +16% recorded in December. Stock per surveyor rose too, reaching 45 homes in January, up from 41 at the same point a year ago. For lettings, tenant demand remained broadly flat, with the balance of opinion at +2% in January, meaning marginally more respondents reported a rise than a fall. Fewer landlord instructions were reported again in January (net balance of -19%), with March 2022 being the last month when we saw a positive net balance recorded. Lack of stock, through fewer landlord instructions, is still expected to underpin further rental growth this year.New TownsHousing Minister Matthew Pennycook has announced that more than 100 potential sites across England have been submitted to the New Towns Taskforce for consideration. The sites, the majority of which are urban extensions, aim to provide more than 10,000 homes each with the government promising spades in the ground before the end of this parliament. Initial reports suggest the government could green light around 12 schemes, or more than 120,000 homes. But few, if any, of these homes will be delivered within this parliament, meaning their (self-imposed) challenge of building 1.5 million homes remains.

Residential Roundup - 14 February

Angela Rayner has committed another &pound;350 million to address the shortfall of affordable homes. &pound;300m has been signed off to boost the Affordable Homes Programme with a further &pound;50m for the Local Authority Housing Fund.

Angela Rayner has committed another £350 million to address the shortfall of affordable homes. £300m has been signed off to boost the Affordable Homes Programme with a further £50m for the Local Authority Housing Fund.

Angela Rayner has committed another &pound;350 million to address the shortfall of affordable homes. &pound;300m has been signed off to boost the Affordable Homes Programme with a further &pound;50m for the Local Authority Housing Fund. Every little helps for those looking to deliver affordable housing, but the scale of the problem and the years of shortfall in delivery means that further funding will be needed on top.

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Growth taking off? Heading out to Davos Rachel Reeves was keen to stress Britain was open for business. And on her return the growth narrative continued, with announcements on the intention to support a third runway at Heathrow and investment in the Oxford Cambridge Growth
 Corridor, which could bring in an additional &pound;78bn for the UK economy by 2035. In addition, Reeves reiterated commitments to rail improvements, new mass transit infrastructure and the regeneration of Old Trafford, potentially including a new
 stadium for Man United &ndash; all of which involve unlocking additional sites for viable housing development. To accelerate the timeline for a third runway, planning changes will be pushed through to ensure gaining planning for infrastructure projects becomes simpler and less ponderous. Similar changes have been proposed for our sector, with planning reform sitting
 alongside Labour&rsquo;s ambitious plans for housing delivery. UK housing starts subduedReleased this week, the latest starts and completions figures (for Q3 2024) make for sobering reading, with 37,000 new homes started, 28% lower than the Q3 average pre-pandemic. Starts in the year to September were down 35% on the previous 12 months.
 Completions dropped back too, with 7% fewer in the 12 months to September and a 13% drop annually in Q3. To put these numbers in context, completions across England totalled less than 157,000 in the last 12 months, meaning that if we relied on completions
 alone it would take us more than nine years to get the 1.5 million homes the government has committed to deliver in five.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1738337351/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Jan31-Chart1.jpg" />A similar picture in LondonAccording to Molior London, the number of homes started across Greater London last year fell 16% on 2023 and were 50% lower than the previous 10-year average. It was a similar story for completions, down 20% on the 10-year average, and planning permissions,
 down 58% on the 10-year and 37% annually.&nbsp; But ending with better news, applications rose annually in 2024, the number of units at application stage up by a third compared with 2023. Relaxing the rules on non-dom taxationA recent report by New World Wealth and Henley &amp; Partners suggests the UK has seen 26,000 millionaires depart since the start of 2017, with a net outflow of 9,500 in 2024 alone. With many countries now courting footloose high net worths with more
 attractive tax rates, the UK is looking increasingly out of step. Plans to change tax rules around non-doms were initiated under the Conservatives and re-iterated in the Budget, but in a recent interview Rachel Reeves suggests the Government is &lsquo;re-thinking&rsquo;
 it&rsquo;s plans. &nbsp;Reeves stated they will be tabling an amendment to the Finance Bill to include a more generous Temporary Repatriation Facility, which enables non-doms to bring money into the UK at a lower tax rate. She also reassured non-doms over double taxation and
 inheritance tax liabilities for those fearing they would become liable for tax in more than one country. Prime Central LondonConflicting messages were coming out of Prime Central London in Q4. Activity rose, with the number of homes changing hands at a 10-year high for fourth quarter sales, but fewer buyers were in the market at the top end and overall prices dipped 4% in 2024
 due in part to fewer higher value homes trading towards the year end. As usual the fourth quarter was relatively quiet for the Prime Central London lettings market, but activity was in line with Q4 2023, with 3% fewer new lets agreed. Full year figures show there were almost 4,400 new lets agreed in Prime Central London
 in 2024, 5% higher than 2023. While activity gradually increased during the year, we saw slower growth in rents. The JLL PCL Rental Index shows average annual rental growth cooling over the past two years from a high of 15% annual growth in Q1 2022.
 Rents ended the year 0.4% higher than at the end of 2023. Looking ahead stock levels are lower as we move into Q1 2025, with 15% fewer homes on the market to let than at the end of the third quarter and 8.5% fewer than in the same period a year earlier.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1738337351/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Jan31-Chart2.jpg" /><a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/insights/research/prime-central-london-report-q4-2024">Click here </a>to read our latest PCL report. Build-to-rent investment rises in Q4Q4 2024 was the most active quarter for build-to-rent investment since 2021, marking a significant increase on a lacklustre third quarter. Investment in the fourth quarter totalled &pound;2bn, taking the full year total to &pound;5.4bn. Single family housing proved popular with investors, as they acquired 7,000 new rental homes in 2024. However, despite a record year for single family investment, a rise in multifamily in Q4 meant it ended the year marginally higher in overall volumes. Operational stock accounted for the bulk of multifamily transactions, with forward funding accounting for just a fifth of total investment. This is due in part to the fact the sector is maturing, with more stabilised stock to trade, but also reflects continued viability challenges faced by both the build-to-rent and build-to-sell markets. To read more on our latest build-to-rent numbers <a href="https://www.jll.co.uk/en/views/record-year-for-single-family-underpins-btr-investment-in-2024">Click here.</a>

Residential Roundup - 31 January

House prices rose 4.1% in the year to January 2025 according to the latest figures from Nationwide, down from 4.7% in December but still a higher annual growth figure than any other month in 2024.

House prices rose 4.1% in the year to January 2025 according to the latest figures from Nationwide, down from 4.7% in December but still a higher annual growth figure than any other month in 2024. This follows an uptick in mortgage approvals in December, with seasonally adjusted numbers showing a 0.7% rise on November levels and a 28% increase on a slow December 2023. If the MPC lower rates, as expected, at their next meeting on 6 February we could see a further increase in activity in February, although those shopping for fixed rates may find these reductions have already been factored into current deals.

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Latest figures from the Office for National Statistics show inflation fell to 2.5% annually in December, down from 2.6% the previous month, and lower than forecast. Core inflation fell to 3.2%, down from 3.5% in October, and services inflation, at 4.4%,
 was at its lowest since Q1 2022. Economists expected it would drop back to only 4.9%. There was some positive news from across the pond, too. Consumer prices rose annually by 2.9% but core inflation, a figure which often influences policy makers&rsquo; decisions on rates dropped to 3.2%.The response from the markets has been broadly positive, increasing the probability of further rate cuts when the Bank of England and Federal Reserve rate setters next meet.&nbsp; In the case of the MPC, 6 February is the date for your diaries.
UK EconomyUK GDP edged up in November, rising by a disappointing 0.1%. The back end of 2024 was slow, with growth weak in Q3 and a plateau forecast in Q4. For 2025 the consensus is for a return to growth, with the outlook more positive at 1.3% compared to 0.9%
 last year. Forecasts, according to Consensus Economics, range from the most optimistic at 1.8%, to the most pessimistic at 0.8%. For 2026 the forecast for growth is the same at 1.3%.The labour market remains robust if a little underwhelming. Higher public sector pay and an increase in the minimum wage align with rising private sector real wages, which are expected to support real spending this year.That said, challenges remain, with employers facing increased costs coming out of the Autumn Budget: higher national insurance contributions, the rise in the minimum wage and higher business property rates, all of which will likely impact both recruitment
 and inflation over the coming months.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1737126346/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Jan17-Chart1.png" />Mortgage ratesWe expect interest rates to fall, particularly following the latest inflation figures. Indeed, with low inflation and growth lower than the long-term trend, it is hard to see why the MPC wouldn&rsquo;t act. The question remains when. We are also facing a global bond sell off that is pushing up benchmark bond yields. Again, we have seen this improve in recent days, but our fiscal situation remains challenging.That said, the rapid rise in bond yields has not been mirrored by a similar rise in swap rates, meaning best buy mortgage rates haven&rsquo;t increased quite as much as feared. As we go to press, best buy rates sit at 4.3% for a two-year fix and 4.2%
 for a five-year (both at 75% LTV).PricesThe drop in mortgage approvals in November and rates remaining north of 4% are impacting buyer demand. In the latest RICS survey, more agents were still reporting an increase in new buyer enquiries, but the net balance fell back from +11% in November
 to +5% in December. However, the usual seasonal slowdown could be playing a role here, too.&nbsp; November figures from the ONS show average UK house prices rose 3.3% in the year to November 2024. Prices were broadly flat in London, down 0.1% annually, compared with growth of 5.9% in the North East.&nbsp;<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1737126346/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Jan17-Chart2.png" />RentsDecember isn&rsquo;t always the best month to take the temperature of the UK rental market. But the ONS rental index is still at near-record levels, averaging 9.0% in December, in line with the 9.1% annual change in November. Achieved rents on new lets show only marginal annual increases, falling to 1.3% across the UK in the year to December according to Homelet. New lets in London saw a modest annual fall of 2.6% in 2024.But the outlook for rental growth remains positive, with the latest figures from the RICS suggesting a net balance of +37% of agents expected rents to rise in the next three months, up from +29% last month. This is expected to be driven by lack of stock, with more agents reporting new landlord instructions falling, a net balance of -27% from -13% in November. HousebuildingPrivate housebuilding price inflation rose to 3.7%, once again above CPI. Meanwhile, the UK Construction PMI recorded a third consecutive month of housebuilding contraction, in sharp contrast to construction as a whole, which continues to expand.But some positive news from the housebuilding sector comes from Persimmon Homes, which reported the number of homes delivered in 2024 was up 7% annually, at the upper end of its expectations for the year.Regulatory updateThe Renters&rsquo; Rights Bill has now completed its passage through the House of Commons and is off to the House of Lords as it inches closer to becoming law. Several amendments were added this week, including a clause restricting landlords from requiring upfront payments of more than one month&rsquo;s rent (alongside a security deposit of five or six weeks&rsquo; rent). We&rsquo;ll be updating you separately on the Renters&rsquo; Rights Bill in the coming days.

Residential Roundup - 17 January

Good news on the UK economy has been hard to come by in recent weeks. But lower than forecast inflation figures have raised hopes and resulted in a much-needed positive response from the bond markets, with 30-year bond yields remaining elevated but down from their recent highs.

Good news on the UK economy has been hard to come by in recent weeks. But lower than forecast inflation figures have raised hopes and resulted in a much-needed positive response from the bond markets.

Good news on the UK economy has been hard to come by in recent weeks. But lower than forecast inflation figures have raised hopes and resulted in a much-needed positive response from the bond markets, with 30-year bond yields remaining elevated but down from their recent highs.

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<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1734604013/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Christmas-Chart1.png" />More new homesThe new National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) was introduced as an early Christmas present last week. Housing targets, based on the new approach to housing need first mooted in July, are now mandatory. The word of the day appears to be flexibility,
 with the NPPF confirming that councils will be required to review green belt boundaries if they cannot meet housing need from non-green belt land first. Any land defined as &lsquo;not strongly contributing&rsquo; to the green belt could be brought
 into scope. There appears to be more flexibility too on affordable housing targets, with a blanket affordable housing requirements of 50% on some sites proposed in the July draft. New plans look instead at a 15% uplift over the current highest policy requirement,
 with the 50% being used as a cap rather than threshold. But planning reform is just one part of the housing delivery puzzle, we&rsquo;ll need a Christmas miracle and plenty more construction elves to ramp up delivery to meet target in the short term.&nbsp;<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1734604013/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Christmas-Chart2.png" />Christmas presentThose hoping to put a new home under the Christmas tree this year will be paying more than they were a year ago.&nbsp; All the key house prices indices are reporting growth. The Nationwide index showing prices have risen 3.7%, the Land Registry 3.4% and Halifax 4.8% in the last 12 months. All marginally higher than our 2024 expectations back in May, with JLL forecasting growth of 2% growth in 2024. We are seeing more activity in the sales market. The number of homes sold in October 2024 was the highest since 2020, with the number of sales up 23% on 2023 levels. This follows a similar trend to the one we&rsquo;ve been observing for a few months now, with the number of transactions recorded between April and October 2024 up 11% on the same period a year earlier. Mortgage approvals are on the rise too. With the latest figures for October the highest since 2022. &nbsp;For rents the ONS Index, which includes new and existing tenancies, is showing rental growth of 9.1% in the 12 months to November, with Homelet (new lets only) reporting an annual increase of 2.2%.&nbsp;What do we predict for 2025? A busy start to Q1First-time buyers can save up to &pound;6,250 and existing owner occupiers up to &pound;2,500 in SDLT when buying a &pound;500,000 home before 1 April 2025. Expect a flurry of deals pushed through in Q1 2025 (and a bit of a lull post). But buyers will
 need to get their (ice) skates on to secure a home before the deadline with less than a third of homes going under offer in January traditionally completing before the start of April. House prices will riseThe latest monthly survey from the RICS points to further growth in prices as we move into 2025. Reported as a balance of opinion (a positive balance means more saying they think they&rsquo;ll rise than fall) a net balance of +47% of respondents expected
 prices will rise over the next 12 months, with views on price growth positive for all UK regions.Demand appears to be rising too, with a net balance of +12% of agents reporting an increase, the fifth consecutive month posting a positive reading. This is also reflected in the outlook for sales activity, with a net balance of +19% expecting more sales
 over the next three months and +33% over the next 12. Here at JLL we expect house prices will rise by 20% over the next five-years, with rents expected to increase 17% over the same period. To read more on our forecasts <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/insights/news/jll-residential-forecast-2025-2029">click here.</a><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1734604013/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Christmas-Chart3.png" />Rental growth returns to low single digitsFor lettings, tenant demand remained broadly flat in November, with the RICS reporting a net balance of -1%. This has grabbed some headlines being the first negative reading on tenant demand since 2020. Despite a drop off in demand (to be fair November is never a busy month for lettings) more agents reported a further fall in landlord instructions, meaning the outlook for rental growth remained positive. A net balance of +29% of respondents to the survey expecting rents to rise in early 2025. Mortgage rates will fall (a bit)Despite average mortgage rates edging up over the last couple of months expectations remain that we&rsquo;ll see further rate cuts as we move into 2025. Five-year swap rates edged down in early December, 44bps lower than they were a year ago and down on recent post-budget highs. As expected, the Monetary Policy Committee held rates at 4.75% at their 19th December meeting, but consensus forecasts suggest we should see three further 25bps drops in the bank rate in 2025.&nbsp;Mortgage activity increasesUK Finance have just released their forecasts for 2025.&nbsp; They expect gross mortgage lending will rise 11% next year. Remortgaging is expected to rise 30% with lending for house purchase up 10% to &pound;148 billion. Only new buy-to-let lending is expected to fall, with lending of &pound;9 billion forecast, 7% lower than 2024 levels. But this follows a stronger than expected year for new buy-to-let lending, with borrowing expected to end the year 13% up on 2023 levels. Here&rsquo;s to 2025That&rsquo;s a wrap on 2024. All that&rsquo;s left is for us to wish you all a very merry Christmas and all the best for 2025 from us here at JLL Residential.&nbsp;

Residential Roundup – Christmas 2024

With the Christmas break in sight this, our last Roundup of 2024, looks back over the year and ahead at what we can expect in 2025.&nbsp;

With the Christmas break in sight this, our last Roundup of 2024, looks back over the year and ahead at what we can expect in 2025. 

News that stamp duty bills are rising for most buyers from April 1st has brought a few more house hunters out in December than usual. But for most minds are elsewhere, meaning that gleaning much from the property tea leaves can be difficult at this time of year. With the Christmas break in sight this, our last Roundup of 2024, looks back over the year and ahead at what we can expect in 2025.&nbsp;

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The Older People&rsquo;s Housing Taskforce Report published this week by the MHCLG flagged stamp duty as holding back activity in the later living market (it mentions it 17 times in the exec summary alone). We need between 30,000 and 50,000 new later
 living homes per annum but only currently build around 7,000. &nbsp;The report suggests introducing stamp duty incentives or equalising first-time buyer and &lsquo;last-time buyer&rsquo; rates for those looking to downsize could increase activity
 and allow older households to move to more suitable properties. Read more <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-older-peoples-housing-taskforce-report/our-future-homes-housing-that-promotes-wellbeing-and-community-for-an-ageing-population#annex-a-combined-set-of-recommendations-for-older-peoples-housinghomes-ophlater-living-housinghomes-llh">here.</a>We&rsquo;re unlikely to hear more on incentives until the Spending Review this coming spring, but until then we thought it was worth looking at rates, who pays and where revenues are coming from. Broader shoulders in higher value marketsProperty transaction tax (the majority of which is residential SDLT) is expected to bring in &pound;12.8 billion in the year to March 2024, rising to &pound;25 billion per annum by 2030 according to the OBR. Property transaction tax receipts are forecast
 to be around 40% higher than the much-discussed inheritance tax take over the next five years. Total residential receipts in year to March 2023 (2024 data is still only provisional) were &pound;11.7 billion.&nbsp;Comparing total residential receipts with the number of transactions shows a rise in revenue per transaction of 72% over the past decade,
 outpacing price growth by around 20 percentage points.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1732891743/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Nov29-Chart1.png" />Of the &pound;11.7 billion total, &pound;4.5 billion came from London sales. London buyers account for 59% of receipts, despite London sales being just 11% of the total nationally. The two most expensive London boroughs contributed &pound;1.45 billion to HMRC coffers, with &pound;690 million from sales in Kensington &amp; Chelsea and &pound;765 million from Westminster, 12.4% of national totals. Indeed, the top ten local authorities
 in terms of receipts contributed 26% of the total SDLT take. Eight of the top ten were London boroughs, with the remaining two high value Buckinghamshire and Elmbridge.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1732891743/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Nov29-Chart2.png" />Home moversStamp duty rates are most straightforward to understand for home movers purchasing their sole residence. Purchasers pay SDLT at differing rates dependent upon the proportion of the sale price which falls within each bracket. From April 2025 the rate at
 which buyers start paying SDLT returns to &pound;125k, down from &pound;250k currently (known as the nil-rate threshold). This will add &pound;2,500 to the stamp duty bill for someone buying a &pound;500,000 home. First-time buyersCurrent rules mean first time buyers purchasing homes at up to &pound;625k have a higher threshold before they start paying stamp duty, saving buyers at the upper price limit &pound;11,250 compared with rates from April 2025. Currently those purchasing
 homes up to &pound;625k don&rsquo;t pay stamp duty on the proportion of the home priced at below &pound;425k, in April 2025 this falls back to the previous limit of &pound;300k. Additional homesHigher Rates on Additional Dwellings (HRAD) accounted for &pound;4.2 billion of SDLT receipts in the year to September 2024, almost 50% of total receipts over the 12-month period.&nbsp; Following the autumn Budget those purchasing an additional property
 will pay a higher SDLT bill.&nbsp; With the previous 3% surcharge rising to 5% at midnight on Budget day. The SDLT cost to purchase a &pound;500k home as a UK resident now &pound;37,500, up &pound;10k on pre-Budget levels. ATEDAnnual Tax on Enveloped Dwelling, or ATED for short, is levied on residential properties owned by non-natural person, in most case those held within a company structure. It applies predominantly to properties valued at &pound;500,000 or more with the
 owner required to have the property valued every five years.&nbsp; An annual charge is then levied depending on the property&rsquo;s value. These range from &pound;4,400 a year for homes valued at &pound;500k to &pound;1million, to &pound;287,500
 for homes worth more than &pound;20 million (figures for 2024/25 financial year). On top of the annual charge properties purchased by &lsquo;non-natural persons&rsquo; attract a 17% SDLT rate. There are exemptions and reliefs available for certain
 assets so well worth taking advice.Buying multiple propertiesMultiple Dwellings Relief (MDR) was abolished under the previous government. Aimed at transactions where there was more than one dwelling, essentially the purchaser paid SDLT on each property at an individual rate per property, rather than on the total
 purchase price. But without MDR most buyers purchasing six or more residential properties now buy through non-residential SDLT.&nbsp; This approach treats the purchase as a single asset, with buyers paying 0% on purchases up to &pound;150k, 2% on
 purchases between &pound;150k and &pound;20k and 5% on purchases over &pound;250k. For more information on stamp duty rates <a href="https://www.tax.service.gov.uk/calculate-stamp-duty-land-tax/#!/intro">click here.</a><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1732891743/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Nov29-Chart3.png" />&nbsp;

Residential Roundup - 29 November

Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) has been in the news quite a bit recently.&nbsp; Those buying additional properties are paying more post-Budget and changes in the zero-rate threshold will mean added costs from April 2025 for all buyers.

Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) has been in the news quite a bit recently.  Those buying additional properties are paying more post-Budget and changes in the zero-rate threshold will mean added costs from April 2025 for all buyers.

Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) has been in the news quite a bit recently.&nbsp; Those buying additional properties are paying more post-Budget and changes in the zero-rate threshold will mean added costs from April 2025 for all buyers.

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The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics show the UK economy all but plateauing in Q3, with economic growth of 0.1% recorded, below the 0.2% forecast and lower than the 0.5% figure for Q2. Understandably the Chancellor is disappointed
 with these numbers and will be hoping that with the budget behind us we&rsquo;ll see more activity and a shift away from pre-Budget inertia. <h2>Wages rising</h2>Annual growth in weekly earnings rose 4.8% in the three months to September, according to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics. Wage growth remained above inflation, rising 1.4% in real (inflation adjusted) terms. These figures support
 assertions by the Bank of England that some heat is coming out of the labour market as we move towards the end of the year and remains in line with expectations. <h2>The latest from the RICS</h2>In contrast to the lacklustre economic news, the latest RICS survey showed some signs of cautious optimism in the housing market. The headline net balance (remember the RICS report on balance of opinion so anything in positive territory suggests more
 agents reporting a rise than a fall) for new buyer enquiries was positive for the fourth consecutive month, albeit little changed from September at +12%. Sales activity looked to be edging up too, with a net balance of +9% of agents reporting an increase.
 This is the third consecutive monthly rise, following broadly negative readings since early 2022. Outlook on price growth remained positive too, with the net balance of agents expecting prices to rise over the next 12 months increasing to +20% in
 October, up from +12% the month prior. <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1731679600/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Rise-Q4.png" />For lettings, results from the October survey show tenant demand rising in the three months to October, with more respondents seeing an increase than a fall, returning a positive net balance of +19%. But there were fewer landlord instructions, possibly
 reflecting pre-Budget caution from landlords, with a net balance of -29% of agents reporting a fall in the three months to October.&nbsp; The most negative figure for three years. Unsurprisingly, with demand increasing and fewer instructions, respondents
 were more optimistic about the prospect for rent rises in the coming months. A balance of +33% of agents expecting rents to rise over the next three months. <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1731679599/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Rent-Rises.png" />The ONS rental index (all lets) shows rents up 8.4% annually, but new lets (via Homelet) are showing a 3.4% annual increase nationally. For sales, Nationwide show prices up 2.4% annually with Halifax figures suggesting higher growth of 3.9%. <h2>Base rates fall but fixed rates rise</h2>In the run up to the Monetary Policy Committee meeting on 7th November most were forecasting a further reduction in the base rate.&nbsp; Even with a mixed reaction following the budget this view didn&rsquo;t waiver much and was confirmed with
 a 25bps reduction.&nbsp; The MPC members voting eight to one to reduce rates (the one voting to stick). But messaging from the MPC suggests chances of a further 2024 reduction when they next meet on 19th December remain slim. The November drop is good news for those on variable or tracker rates, but for those shopping for fixed rates a rise in swap rates, which started to build pre-Budget, means a host of lenders have increased their fixed rates.&nbsp; At the time of writing
 most sub 4% five-year fixes have been pulled from the market, rates are still lower than the 4.7% best-buys a year ago but expect them to sit slightly higher until we have some clarity on swaps. &nbsp;<h2>Starts drop in London</h2>A new approach to measuring housing need in London suggests we should be targeting 80,000 completions a year in the capital. But Molior London figures show housing starts in London so far this year (January to September) are down 53%
 on the ten-year average. Figures from the GLA show the number of affordable housing starts in the six months to September 2024 fell 23% on 2023 levels, with just shy of 2,700 affordable homes completed. Over the same six-month period there were just
 582 GLA-funded affordable homes started, up on 2023 levels but nowhere near target. Expect continued scarcity in the London new homes market until we see an uptick in activity. <h2>Updated JLL forecasts</h2>Back in May our revised forecast coincided with the announcement of a UK General Election and in November we were upstaged again when our forecast launch fell on the same day as the US election.
So, for those who may have missed it, our updated 2025 to 2029 forecast expects activity to
increase steadily from 2025 onwards, with prices up 20% and rents up 17% by the end of the five-year forecast period. To read more on our latest outlook for 2025-2029 <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/insights/news/jll-residential-forecast-2025-2029">click here.</a><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1731677711/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Outlook-Price-Rent.png" />

Residential Roundup - 15 November

It&rsquo;s been a busy couple of weeks since we last updated you following the UK Budget. Trump is heading back to the White House, the Bank of England has dropped the bank rate 25bps to 4.75%, and here at JLL we&rsquo;ve released our latest house price forecasts.

It’s been a busy couple of weeks since we last updated you following the UK Budget. Trump is heading back to the White House, the Bank of England has dropped the bank rate 25bps to 4.75%, and here at JLL we’ve released our latest house price forecasts.

It&rsquo;s been a busy couple of weeks since we last updated you following the UK Budget. Trump is heading back to the White House for a second time, the Bank of England has dropped the bank rate 25bps to 4.75%, and here at JLL we&rsquo;ve released our latest house price forecasts. The latter obviously grabbing the lion&rsquo;s share of headlines&hellip;.

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