Welcome news of a two-week ceasefire in the Middle East has seen markets react favourably. Brent crude prices dropped to below $100 a barrel and shares in several UK and US property REITs have rallied. The outlook for the Bank Rate has also shifted, with markets now expecting a more cautious approach to rate hikes from the Bank of England this year. Forecasters, who had been predicting up to three 25bps increases in 2026 are pulling back and now expecting one. Swap rates at time of writing have also dropped, a positive sign for the fixed rate mortgage market. But even if, as hoped, the ceasefire holds, much of the damage done to global supply chain and energy costs will take some time to unravel, with a similar impact on mortgage rates. All of which means any significant rebound in activity in the housing market may well take time to feed through. Uncertainty hangs over the housing marketA series of decidedly glum indicators have been released over the last week, highlighting the impact of geopolitical unrest on the UK housing market. First up Halifax, whose house price index suggested prices dipped 0.5 per cent in March compared with
 February, meaning prices were just 0.8 per cent higher than they were a year ago. This was followed by the latest RICS survey, the first to fully cover the impact of Middle East conflict, which showed a drop in activity and appetite in the sales market. Needs based buyers were still looking to transact, and those with pre-March mortgage
 deals locked in were still active, but the discretionary market looked like it retreated again last month. New buyer enquiries fell sharply, with the net balance declining to -39 per cent from -29 per cent in February&mdash;the weakest reading since August 2023. Agreed sales followed suit, dropping from -13 per cent to -34 per cent, also the lowest since summer
 2023. Near-term sales expectations turned markedly pessimistic at -33 per cent (from -4 per cent), whilst twelve-month outlook sentiment weakened to -1 per cent. New instructions registered a net balance of -6 per cent, indicating a marginally slower
 flow of listings. Unsold stock on agents' books rose to an average of 47 properties, up from 45 at the start of the year.On pricing, near-term expectations dropped to -43 per cent from -19 per cent in the previous month indicating accelerating downward pressure anticipated over the next three months. The twelve-month outlook sits at +2 per cent, suggesting a broadly flat
 trend&mdash; but is down sharply from +43 per cent in January.But while caution reigned in the sales market, tenant demand rose (+10 per cent net balance in March) alongside a continued drop in landlord instructions (remaining firmly negative at -25 per cent). Expectations for rental growth strengthened to +29 per
 cent, with agents citing persistent supply-demand imbalances and expectations that the uncertain outlook in the sales market could benefit the rental market.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1776635385/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Apr10-Chart1.jpg" />Construction activity remains mutedGeopolitical uncertainty also weighed heavily on the latest construction PMIs. The UK construction sector's woes deepened in March 2026, with house building bearing the brunt of the downturn, compounded by a wet first quarter that made construction even
 more challenging. Residential activity recorded the sharpest decline across all construction categories, with the index falling to 38.2&mdash;well below both commercial construction (47.1) and civil engineering (44.8). Remember, a score below 50 signals
 a contraction in activity. This marks the fifteenth consecutive month that the sector has contracted, driven by falling client confidence and a dearth of new project starts.What's particularly concerning for housebuilders is the acceleration and unpredictability of build costs. Input price inflation surged to its highest level since November 2022, with nearly half of all construction firms reporting rising cost burdens.
 The outbreak of war in the Middle East has disrupted supply chains, pushing up fuel, transportation and raw material costs. International shipping delays meant that supplier delivery times rose for the first time since last summer, adding further
 pressure to already squeezed margins.Falling shortThe latest estimated net additions figures highlight the need for further incentives to develop. Government figures suggest 191,300 homes were completed in England between 1 April 2025 and 15 March this year. This was 17,300 short of the previous 12-month
 total. Comparing estimates on net additions with housing needs targets shows the clear need for further intervention, with net additions (the most generous measure of housing delivery) 48 per cent shy of the 370,000 annual housing need across England.&nbsp;<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1776635385/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Apr10-Chart2.jpg" />Housing Bank to the rescue? With a 180,000-home supply shortfall, debt more expensive, and viability more challenged, the launch of the National Housing Bank could not have come at a more important time. The National Housing Bank (NHB) is part of a raft of Homes England and GLA initiatives to promote further activity in the housing market, effectively aiming to alleviate some of the debt-based challenges faced by those delivering homes. The scheme was launched with much fanfare, with a &pound;100m JV with Aviva championed as an example of how the schemes could turbocharge activity. The NHB has &pound;16 billion of debt, equity and guarantees aiming to assist in the delivery of half a million new homes. The bank also needs buy-in from the private sector, with an investment prospectus published to attract more than &pound;50 billion of private capital. Announced in the 2025 Spending Review, the Bank is a wholly government-owned subsidiary of Homes England. Its mission is to drive housing delivery and create communities, with returns only covering the cost of government borrowing. The Bank will work alongside Homes England as an independent subsidiary to provide tailored support packages.The NHB is open to different providers from large housebuilders to SMEs. Crucially it is not limited to those operators providing affordable or build-for-sale homes, with build-to-rent and later living also able to access funds. From 1 April 2026, the NHB offers seven debt products:1-SME accelerator loans - providing site-specific lending enabling smaller developers to establish track records and scale operations. Targeted at supporting firms currently delivering up to 250 homes a year but looking to grow their output. 2-Revolving credit facilities - working with commercial lenders to provide multi-site facilities and land loans, again targeted at helping SME developers expand capacity.3-Senior and mezzanine loans &ndash; targeted at mid-size developers with project-level funding, particularly for build-to-rent, later living and brownfield regeneration. Funding will sit alongside private capital to bring forward stalled projects.4-Corporate balance sheet lending - supports housebuilders directly and sits alongside commercial lending, a key focus is supporting those specialising in Modern Methods of Construction.5-Lending alliances - creating platforms leveraging private sector capital to broaden the Bank's reach and scale debt finance availability to SME housebuilders.6-Infrastructure loans - long-term funding up to 15 years to large housebuilders and master developers for upfront infrastructure needs ranging from roads to placemaking.7-Low interest loans for RPs - offers below-market interest rates to Registered Providers to unlock social and affordable housing investment, addressing pressures from increased debt costs and rising capital expenditure demands.Partners are urged to reach out to their regional Homes England teams with specific sites or potential opportunities. With more information on the National Housing Bank available <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/homes-england-and-national-housing-bank-investment-prospectus-2026/homes-england-and-national-housing-bank-investment-prospectus-2026-html#fnref:1">here.</a> JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare and student housing. Disclaimer: &copy; 2026 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property

Residential Roundup - 10 April

PCL big ben

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All nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee unanimously voted to hold rates at 3.75 per cent at the March meeting. This came as little surprise considering the many unknowns around the length and impact of the conflict in the Middle East. Just a few weeks back, following the February meeting the odds on a rate cut topped 80 per cent, with observers hinting at further downward movements in the coming months. Obviously much has changed since then.But with odds on a reduction in the Bank Rate falling from near certainty to less than 10 per cent in the run-up, market attention shifted to what committee members were saying rather than the decision itself. Some thought (or hoped) the committee would
 choose to &lsquo;look through&rsquo; energy cost driven inflation risk and concentrate on the ongoing weakness in the employment market. But the Bank&rsquo;s key focus &ndash; keeping inflation in check rather than focussing on growth &ndash; won
 out. The Bank of England's decision to maintain its current interest rate stance reflects a broader pattern of monetary policy restraint among major central banks worldwide this week. The narrative emerging from all the Central Banks&rsquo; announcements was
 one of caution. The US Federal Reserve opted to keep rates within its existing 3.5 per cent to 3.75 per cent range, signalling continued caution in its approach to monetary adjustment. Canada held firm at 2.25 per cent, while both the Bank of Japan
 at 0.75 per cent and the European Central Bank at 2 per cent announced they too would be maintaining their respective rates for the time being.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1776634954/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Mar20-Chart1.jpg" />Outlook for inflationMaintaining its key focus on inflation, the Bank emphasised that it will be monitoring developments "extremely closely" and stands ready to act to ensure inflation returns to the 2 per cent target level. With the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) having fallen
 to 3 per cent in January, MPC forecasts back in February had anticipated inflation dropping back towards 2 per cent from as early as April, largely thanks to falls in the energy price cap. However, on Thursday, the MPC acknowledged that recent increases
 in wholesale energy costs would delay inflation's return to target, as these rises were already translating into higher fuel prices at the forecourt. The Committee now expects inflation to sit at around 3 per cent in the second quarter of 2026, a
 notable increase from the 2.1 per cent in the February forecast. Looking ahead, higher wholesale gas prices are likely to feed through into a higher Ofgem energy price cap from July, which the Bank anticipates could add 0.75 percentage points to inflation over the third quarter. When combined with the prospect of firms
 passing on elevated energy costs to consumers, the MPC warned that CPI inflation could climb to as much as 3.5 per cent in the third quarter, considerably higher than the previous 2 per cent forecast.Employment figuresThe latest government figures revealed continued weakness in employment markets. Growth in private sector wages, excluding bonuses, was 3.3 per cent in the three months to January, below the 3.5 per cent expected by the markets. The jobless rate remained
 at 5.2 per cent, marginally lower than the 5.3 per cent forecast previously.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1776634954/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Mar20-Chart2.jpg" />Impact on mortgage ratesWith oil breaching $100 a barrel and the prospect of higher inflation for longer, swap rates (the benchmark rate for fixed rate mortgages) have risen. Markets are certainly pricing in the uncertainty &ndash; particularly in the short term, with two-year swaps now sitting higher than five-year. Products are being pulled, with the last of the sub 4 per cent deals now disappearing from lenders&rsquo; books. Moneyfacts data shows the average shelf-life of mortgage products fell from 33 days in early February to 14 in early March, the lowest for over two years.Moneyfacts tracked the removal of 600 mortgage products over the past few weeks. Not great news for borrowers, but this does reflect only around 10 per cent of the overall market.&nbsp; The number of mortgage products available is still more than double those offered in the weeks following the 2022 mini-Budget. Average two-year fixed rates have risen from 4.84 per cent at the start of March to 5.32 per cent on the morning of the MPC meeting. What does this mean for the housing market? Uncertainty often leads to greater caution among buyers, particularly those who are less needs driven. In the short term, we expect those who have already locked in more favourable mortgage deals will be keen to push through transactions. But for those thinking of entering the market, heightened uncertainty alongside higher rates will likely deter some from moving. Our 2026 forecast, made back in November, always predicted a stronger H2 than H1. It&rsquo;s still too early to call, and we are obviously all hoping for a swift resolution to the current conflict. But if the conflict persists, we could see a delay in the recovery this year. We&rsquo;re reviewing our outlook and will keep you posted once we have a clearer view. JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare and student housing. Disclaimer: &copy; 2026 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.

Residential Roundup - 20 March

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With the government committing to one &ldquo;fiscal event&rdquo; a year, the Spring Forecast was, as expected, policy light but forecast heavy. There was some (rare) positive news for the Chancellor, with cash receipts coming in stronger than the Budget watchdog expected, rising to the tune of &pound;22bn. An increase in receipts from self-assessment tax returns (including the impact of fiscal drag pulling more taxpayers into higher bands) alongside VAT and CGT increases are helping fill the coffers. This will be welcome news for the government, particularly following the loss of the Gorton and Denton by-election, with both the Greens and Reform making significant gains.&nbsp;<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1776634617/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Mar6-Chart1.jpg" />The outlook for UK GDP remains subdued, with the Office for Budget Responsibility downgrading their view on 2026 growth from a 1.4 per cent forecast in November to 1.1, although the outlook for 2027 and 2028 improved marginally from 1.6 per cent growth
 to 1.7. This downgrade was due, in part, to a drop in net migration, with the OBR now expecting net migration to average 235,000 a year between 2026 and 2030, 60,000 a year lower than the 295,000 it was predicting in November.Unemployment is now expected to peak at 5.3 per cent this year, up from a November forecast of 4.9 per cent. Youth unemployment remains particularly challenging, with 16 per cent of 16- to 24-year-olds out of work in Q4 2025, nearing an 11-year high.
 Inflation is expected to fall back from 3.5 per cent in 2025 to 2.3 per cent in 2026 &ndash; down from November&rsquo;s forecast of 2.5 per cent. But as the conflict in Iran continues to escalate, the Office for Budget Responsibility&rsquo;s forecasts
 looked out of date even before they were published, with continued military action in the Middle East sending shockwaves through the markets. Airline stocks dropped by more than 10 per cent while fears over oil supply saw the share prices of BP and
 Shell spike. Oil has hit $85 a barrel but crucially remained below the $128 threshold reached following Russia&rsquo;s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Similarly, the price of liquefied natural gas, of which around 20 per cent of global supply comes out
 of Qatar, almost doubled compared with pre-conflict levels as QatarEnergy confirmed a suspension in production following an attack on its primary operational hubs.&nbsp;<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1776634617/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Mar6-Chart2.jpg" />There are many reasons aside from the fiscal to hope for a quick resolution, but fears over the impact of a drawn-out conflict on inflation remain. Expectations that we may see a further rate cut at the next MPC meeting on 19th March have all but evaporated - the odds on a rate cut in March slashed from north of 70 per cent last week to around 20 per cent at time of writing. &nbsp;Housing marketThere was little in the Spring Forecast for housing, with those pinning their hopes on an outside chance that much needed buy side incentives would be announced again disappointed. Although rumours abound that the government is continuing to consult on how best to support first-time buyers. The OBR still expect the government&rsquo;s housebuilding aspirations are unachievable, forecasting 1.3 million homes UK wide by 2029/30, 200,000 short of the government&rsquo;s England only target. That said, the Spring statement adds 30,000 to the previous figures published in November. Here at JLL we&rsquo;re a little more pessimistic, with expectations of closer to 1 million homes over the forecast period. House prices were expected to rise by an average of 2.5 per cent per annum over the next five years, with only a marginal 0.2 percentage point increase and another 0.1 percentage point rise expected in 2027 and 2028 over the November outlook. This is more pessimistic than the JLL view, with our UK forecast expecting just shy of 20 per cent increase in prices by the end of 2029 against 16.4 per cent forecast over the next five years by the OBR. In other newsHouses prices edged up in February, with the Nationwide Index showing prices rising 0.3 per cent month-on-month. But with inflation at circa. 3 per cent, prices on an inflation adjusted basis fell, meaning further improvement in affordability. For rents, Homelet&rsquo;s reported average UK rental values rose 2 per cent in the year to February. The North East was the only English region to record above inflation increases in rents at 4.6 per cent, with rents rising in real terms in Scotland (+4.6 per cent) and Wales (3.1 per cent).Yet despite notional increases in spending power in most markets, prospective buyers remained cautious in January. Mortgage approvals dropped below 60,000, their lowest for two years. Of course, January is never the busiest month for the mortgage markets, but the promise of better rates ahead, as well as continued economic uncertainty around growth and job security could well be impacting here. We&rsquo;ll need a few more months of data to tell. In case you missed itOur latest JLL Big Six Residential Development Report shows the average price of new build apartments across the six cities rose 2.4% in 2025, while rental growth slowed to 1.7%. In the build-to-rent market, total investment volumes exceeded &pound;1bn in 2025, 21% higher than 2024. North of the border the passing of the Scottish Housing Bill, and the exemption of BTR from future rent caps is expected to boost activity and put Scotland firmly back on investors&rsquo; radars. To download a copy of the report <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/insights/article/big-six-residential-development-report-2026">click here</a>. JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare and student housing. Disclaimer: &copy; 2026 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.

Residential Roundup - 6 March

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The government unveiled the draft Commonhold and Leasehold Reform Bill at the end of January. This follows the adoption of the Renters' Rights Act, which ends “no-fault” evictions, and the ban on upwards-only rent reviews in commercial leases. This proposed legislation represents a significant overhaul of residential property ownership structures, with the potential to impact over five million existing leaseholders.
The centrepiece of these reforms is a cap on ground rents at £250 annually from late 2028, dropping to a nominal peppercorn rate after 40 years. For many leaseholders currently facing escalating ground rents – particularly those trapped by doubling clauses – this provides substantial savings throughout their lease term as well as certainty over costs. The changes will be particularly welcomed by homeowners whose properties became difficult to mortgage or sell due to onerous ground rent terms.
The legislation also looks to abolish the controversial and widely criticised forfeiture system. Under current rules, leaseholders can lose their homes and equity over debts as low as £350. The new enforcement regime introduces a structured court process. Where properties must be sold, leaseholders will receive any balance after landlords' claims and mortgage debts are settled.
However, this retrospective capping of existing contractual arrangements is a significant departure from traditional legal principles and is likely to face legal challenges from investors who have acquired ground rent income streams in the past.
<h2>The End of New Leases</h2>
Building on the 2022 ban on new leasehold houses and ground rent ban on new flat leases, the Bill prohibits new leasehold flats entirely. Instead, newly built residential developments will use commonhold structures, where homeowners collectively own both their individual properties and a proportional share in the building itself. This offers greater control to those ultimately bearing the costs.
However, commonhold isn't without challenges, and despite being introduced in 2002 has seen low levels of take-up. Owners will still need to grapple with collective decision-making and shared responsibilities – issues familiar to anyone involved in right-to-manage companies or share of freehold arrangements. Owners of commonhold properties will also be legally responsible for building safety requirements, with failure to adhere to rules opening owners up to legal action, fines or even imprisonment. If commonhold owners don’t want to collectively manage their buildings, they may choose to engage a managing agent. However, management companies, used to dealing with single freeholders, may also find it more challenging and more costly to engage with multiple commonhold owners or committees, most of whom are unlikely to have previous property management experience. This lack of track record may also prove challenging for lenders, with newly established commonhold structures unable to demonstrate the managerial and financial track record larger management companies or freehold owners can offer. All of which means the success of commonhold will depend heavily on whether the updated framework addresses these practical complexities effectively.
For developers this also represents a fundamental shift away from the traditional model of retaining or selling on freehold ownership. However, the ban includes exemptions for ‘permitted leases’ which looks to include build-to-rent schemes, purpose-built student accommodation and social housing.
<h2>Conversion of Existing Leaseholds</h2>
Existing leaseholders aren't left behind. The reforms attempt to simplify conversion to commonhold, replacing the current unanimous consent requirement with a 50% threshold. Buildings will be able to maintain mixed ownership during transition periods, with mechanisms ensuring effective management whilst preserving rights for homeowners.
<h2>Implications </h2>
These changes will impact both leaseholders and those who invest, lend and develop in the sector. Freehold investors, including several pension funds, face reduced income streams, while developers lose a traditional revenue source from freehold sales, potentially affecting development viability.
For homebuyers, commonhold developments may become increasingly attractive due to enhanced transparency and owner control. But the ability to convert should prevent market segmentation between leasehold and commonhold properties.
For lenders, the transition period may also cause legal and valuation headaches. The removal of “marriage value” in lease extensions will significantly reduce the cost of extending a lease but also distorts long established and legally ratified approaches to valuation used to assess the differential in the value of short lease properties. This could lead to uncertainty around true value and cause issues for those looking to lend or secure finance on short lease properties.
<h2>Timeline</h2>
Currently in draft form, the legislation faces parliamentary scrutiny and likely legal challenges. The ground rent cap won't take effect until late 2028, providing time for market adjustment and legal resolution.
The transition presents challenges, particularly for existing investors, but the legislation promises greater security and control for millions of homeowners. Ultimately success will be measured by the extent to which these complex reforms deliver the improved homeownership experience the government promises, both for current leaseholders and future residents.
<h2>JLL Research</h2>
JLL’s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare and student housing.
Disclaimer: © 2026 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.

Implications of Leasehold Reform

The government unveiled the draft Commonhold and Leasehold Reform Bill at the end of January. This follows the adoption of the Renters' Rights Act, which ends &ldquo;no-fault&rdquo; evictions, and the ban on upwards-only rent reviews in commercial leases. This proposed legislation represents a significant overhaul of residential property ownership structures, with the potential to impact over five million existing leaseholders.

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It&rsquo;s been quite a week (again) in Westminster, with further revelations about the former U.S. Ambassador looking at points as if they could topple Starmer. Yields on ten-year government debt rose to just shy of 4.6 per cent in response but have since settled, with the pound weakening against both the dollar and euro, too. But despite calls from Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar for the PM to stand down, the cabinet came out broadly in support. For Sarwar, the upcoming Holyrood election will be at the forefront of his mind, but for Starmer, too, the 7 May local elections remain a thorn in Labour&rsquo;s side, with the potential for &lsquo;protest&rsquo; voting to further destabilise Starmer and Labour&rsquo;s front benches. UK economyLike front line politics, unpicking what&rsquo;s happening to the UK economy remains challenging. Following a surprise 0.3 per cent uptick in GDP in the three months to November, the December (Q4) figures came in at a somewhat underwhelming 0.1 per cent,
 the same as recorded in Q3. This took full-year 2025 growth to 1.3 per cent, notably above the figure most forecasters predicted earlier in the year. The announcement of these results resulted in some significant political cherry-picking, with Labour citing the UK as the best-performing European G7 nation (effectively we did better than France, Germany and Italy). The Conservatives took a different
 stance, with the flatlining of GDP in the second half of the year blamed squarely at Rachel Reeves&rsquo; decision making. Looking ahead, the OBR expects growth of 0.9 per cent in 2026, whereas consensus forecasts are a little higher at 1.0 per cent.&nbsp;<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1776634352/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Feb13-Chart2.jpg" />Caution around the labour marketThe labour market has continued its gradual cooling from the post-pandemic tightness that characterised recent years. The unemployment rate remained at 5.1 per cent in the three months to November&mdash;October, the highest level since 2016 when excluding
 the pandemic disruption. But there are now 3.7 million more people in employment than when unemployment last reached this level. Job vacancies remained stable in November at 2.3 per 100 employee jobs for the fourth consecutive month, sitting modestly
 below the pre-pandemic average of 2.6.The inflation picture presents a much brighter outlook than we've seen over the past two years, despite some uneven progress. Core inflationary pressures, particularly in goods, continue to subside, and slower wage growth is expected to gradually filter
 through to services inflation.Most forecasters anticipate inflation will continue its downward trajectory throughout 2026, drawing closer to the Bank of England's 2 per cent target. Financial markets expect this will permit further gradual monetary easing as we move through 2026.
 The Bank of England maintained its policy rate at 3.75 per cent at its most recent meeting but signalled the possibility of additional cuts. Markets and economists are forecasting up to two further 25 basis point reductions in the year ahead.UK investmentJLL data on UK real estate investment volumes (all sectors), shows volumes increased 64 per cent quarter on quarter to &pound;16.4bn in Q4, from &pound;10.0bn in Q3.&nbsp; This represented a 28 per cent increase on 2024 where volumes reached &pound;12.8bn
 in Q4. Growth also remained higher than the long-run average, at 10 per cent above the 10-year Q4 average. A strong Q4 means total 2025 volumes rose to &pound;49.0bn, 27 per cent above 2024 volumes of &pound;38.7bn and 2 per cent above the 10-year average.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1776634352/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Feb13-Chart1.jpg" />Affordability at a decade highUK wage growth dropped to its lowest level since 2022 in the three months to November, rising 4.5 per cent year-on-year. Yet despite the recent drop in the rate of wage inflation, increases in earnings have been outpacing house prices for some time now. This has resulted in house price to earnings ratio dropping from a high of 6.9 times earnings in Q2 2022 to 5.6 times in Q4 2025. This means house prices, when measured as a multiple of earnings are at their most affordable for over a decade. London has followed a similar trajectory. Back in 2016 average London house price hit 11.7 times earnings but almost a decade on the ratio had fallen to 8.8. The last time London had a similar ratio was back in Q4 2013. The challenge more recently has been around mortgage costs, with higher rates effectively wiping out affordability advantages. But rates are improving, best-buys are under 3.6 per cent and the effective interest rate on new mortgages edged down to 4.15 per cent in December from 4.20 per cent in the previous month.Housing marketResponses to the January RICS survey point to some green shoots in the residential market this year. The 12-month view on house prices rose for the fifth consecutive month, with a net balance of +43 per cent of respondents expecting prices to be higher at the same point in 2027. The outlook for rental growth remains positive too, with a net balance of +28 per cent expecting near-term rental increases.JLL ResearchJLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare and student housing. Disclaimer: &copy; 2025 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.

Residential Roundup - 13 February

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Government announcements have been coming in thick and fast this week. They&rsquo;ve confirmed the detail behind much-anticipated changes to leasehold ownership, provided clarity on decent homes, minimum energy efficiency standards, warm homes, affordable housing rent convergence and low-cost loans for housing associations. Here at JLL we&rsquo;ve been busy releasing reports of our own too, with our latest Prime Central London and Living Roundup out now. So, buckle up, take a deep breath, and we&rsquo;ll run through what we&rsquo;ve learnt in the last fortnight. Leasehold reformThe government has finally published the Draft Commonhold and Leasehold Reform Bill. Reactions differ depending on which side of the leasehold fence one sits. Owners of freeholds bought as investments (which include individuals and larger institutions)
 will be assessing the implications for income. Developers too will be keen for more clarity on the impact of commonhold structures for future development, something which we&rsquo;ll be looking into more in the coming weeks. But for individuals owning
 leasehold properties or those looking to buy the reaction remains positive. The proposed capping of annual ground rents at &pound;250 from 2028 (dropping to a peppercorn rent after 40 years) will mean existing homeowners who own properties with more
 complex ground rent structures (doubling ground rents being one of the most challenging) finding it easier to secure a mortgage or sell their homes. It also reassures prospective owners that costs will not escalate going forward, supporting increased
 activity in the market. With challenges around escalating service charges, the greater transparency a commonhold structure brings may mean common holders have more control (or at least better oversight) of fees charged too.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1776634116/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Jan30-Chart1.jpg" />Housing delivery &ndash; a mixed pictureThe government&rsquo;s commitment to 1.5 million homes appears unwavering, however 18 months from coming to power the delivery of new homes has reached near record lows. The government will welcome some positive headlines, with an 18 per cent annual increase
 in housing starts in the year to September 2025. But this isn&rsquo;t the full picture. Changes to building regulations meant starts spiked and then dropped back in Q2 2023, meaning the hike in starts comes off an abnormally low base.In London Molior&rsquo;s latest release was mixed too. The number of starts totalled just over 5,500 in 2025 - it was 34,000 a decade earlier - meaning Molior&rsquo;s London starts in 2025 were just 6 per cent of London&rsquo;s 88,000 housing needs target.
 But there was a glimmer of hope, with Q4 starts rising, accounting for 41 per cent of the albeit low 2025 total.Affordable housing clarityThe government has set out the detail behind rent convergence for social housing. The announcements are designed to address the difference in rents charged for some social homes and formula rents for comparable properties. This means more fairness for
 tenants who won&rsquo;t pay vastly different rates for similar homes just because they&rsquo;ve lived in a property for longer or have a different social landlord. From April 2027 affordable housing providers will be able to increase rents by &pound;1
 per week over and above CPI plus 1 per cent rising to &pound;2 per week above CPI+1 from April 2028. Rent convergence can run for up to ten years, or until they reach parity. London has the widest gap and is expected to take the longest with some
 regional markets needing only a year or so to regain lost ground. The announcements on rent convergence are seen as key in underpinning providers&rsquo; balance sheets and ensuring they have the confidence and financial ability to deliver more homes.Details were also shared on the &pound;2.5bn of low-cost loans for housing associations announced at the spending review. The 25-year loans will have an interest rate of 0.1 per cent. &pound;250m will be set aside to support section 106, with the remaining
 90 per cent supporting the delivery of social housing through grant-funding.&nbsp;<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1776634116/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Jan30-Chart2.jpg" />Living updateA record &pound;22.8bn was invested in UK Living in 2025, with healthcare contributing more than half of the total as it ended the year with several &pound;1bn+ M&amp;A deals. Excluding healthcare, investment grew a more modest 2 per cent to &pound;10.1bn,
 rising for the second year running from the trough in 2023 (&pound;8.9bn). Single family investment overtook multifamily in 2025 with &pound;2.6bn invested, accounting for just over half of all build-to-rent investment last year. The 2024/25 student data released by HESA this week gives us a glimpse at the first full year impact of restrictions on international students brought in at the start of 2024. The number of international students has fallen 10 per cent from its 2022/23
 peak, totalling 686,000 in 2024/25. Though still above the UK's (now scrapped) 600,000 target, it does represent a significant fall at a time that universities remain reliant on international tuition fees. The slowdown among international students
 resulted in a marginal 1 per cent decline in total university students. Despite a degree of uncertainty, investors were still active in the student market, with &pound;4.6bn of investment completing across the year, up 22 per cent annually. For more
 analysis on the UK living sector read Karl Tomusk&rsquo;s latest Living Roundup <a href="https://www.jll.com/en-uk/insights/uk-living-roundup-series">here.</a>Prime Central LondonPre-budget anxiety means drawing firm conclusions from Q4 data isn&rsquo;t advisable, but there were some glimmers of hope for a sunnier year ahead. Prices across PCL were down 7.3 per cent year-on-year in Q4, following a 1.6 per cent quarterly decline.
 But with more clarity post-Budget activity began to pick up with transactions above &pound;10 million rising by 36 per cent over the quarter, with buyers who&rsquo;d agreed prices pre-Budget gaining the confidence to exchange. Activity below &pound;2million
 was driven largely by domestic buyers, with transactions at this price point rising 7 per cent over the quarter. Activity in the &pound;2&ndash;5 million and &pound;5&ndash;10 million ranges was more subdued, likely reflecting lingering uncertainty
 earlier in the quarter around proposed tax changes. To read Meg Eglington&rsquo;s take on the Q4 PCL market <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/insights/research/jll-pcl-report-q4-2025">click here.</a> JLL ResearchJLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare
 and student housing. Disclaimer: &copy; 2025 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as
 to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any
 means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right
 to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.

Residential Roundup - 30 January

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Hopes of a more settled geopolitical landscape in 2026 have been quickly dashed, with Trump&rsquo;s intervention in Venezuela, little progress on a peaceful resolution in Ukraine, the return of transatlantic friction over Greenland and distressing scenes in Iran leaving questions over the prospect of further US intervention.But there are signs that economically 2026 could prove more settled. The Budget is behind us and the promise of one fiscal event a year &ndash; and hopefully lessons learnt from the pre-Budget paralysis last year &ndash; mean we could see more activity this year. The Bank of England has hinted they expect inflation will drop back to levels at or close to their 2 per cent target by the end of 2026, with two or more rate cuts this year looking more likely. There was some promising news on GDP in November, recovering from an October contraction of 0.1 per cent to grow 0.3 per cent in November, a five-month high. It isn&rsquo;t always prudent to read too much into monthly GDP numbers, but the increase in
 November does point to modest growth rather than a contraction once the Q4 figures surface. The reopening of the Jaguar Land Rover production line supported the November figure (and fed into the negativity in October), with car manufacturing rising
 26 per cent month-on-month. For the housing market 2026 also brings some much-needed clarity on acronyms, with the NPPF, SAHP, RRA and rent settlement now published or expected to be released in Q1. We&rsquo;re forecasting a slow recovery rather than a step change in prices and
 activity this year. Our latest forecasts, published in early December, point to marginal growth of 2 per cent in prices and 2.5 per cent in rents this year. If you missed them, you can read more on our latest forecasts <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/insights/news/residential-forecasts-2025">here.</a>Market activityUK property transactions reached 100,350 in November, up 7.7 per cent annually and 1.3 per cent month-on-month, according to HMRC data. This sits just 1 per cent below the long-term pre-pandemic average (2013-2019). Rightmove&rsquo;s full year figures
 show sales agreed in 2025 were 3 per cent higher than 2024. But with transactions taking more than six months to progress from listing to exchange the slowdown in activity observed later in 2025 will take months to show up in the figures, meaning
 we&rsquo;re in for a few months of underwhelming figures, even if the market is feeling a little rosier.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1768581921/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Jan16-Chart2.jpg" /> The RICS survey provides a timelier picture of market sentiment. It has been decidedly gloomy of late, with uncertainty pre-Budget weighing heavily on respondents&rsquo; market outlook. But their December survey, the first post-Budget, looks more promising.
 December isn&rsquo;t the best month to take the temperature of the housing market, with little change in new instructions reported by RICS and the near-term outlook for prices remaining broadly flat, but a higher number of respondents are now expecting
 prices to rise in 2026. A net balance of +35 per cent of respondents expect an increase, up from +16 in October and +24 in November. Sales expectations rose too, with a net balance of 34 per cent of respondent expecting activity to increase in 2026,
 the highest reading since December 2024. Rents are expected to rise in 2026 too, with respondents to the survey forecasting growth of 3 per cent nationally in 2026. PricesBudget jitters acted as a dampener on house prices in the final months of 2025. Both Halifax and Nationwide reported UK house prices declining month-on-month in December, with Halifax showing a 0.6 per cent decrease and Nationwide recording a 0.4 per
 cent drop. Despite these monthly declines, annual price growth remained marginally positive at 0.3 per cent (Halifax) and 0.6 per cent (Nationwide) for the year ending December 2025. At a country and regional level prices in Q4 2025 rose in all areas
 bar East Anglia, where prices fell 0.8 per cent annually. Growth in the price of houses continues to outpace flats, with semi-detached houses recording 2.4 per cent growth annually, UK wide, compared with a 0.9 per cent fall for flats.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1768581921/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Jan16-Chart1.jpg" />RentsThe rental market followed typical seasonal patterns, with the final months traditionally bringing higher stock levels and modest rental adjustments. December 2025 saw average rents for new lets fall 1.5 per cent month-on-month, resulting in annual growth of 2.6 per cent for the year according to Homelet. The North East was the strongest English region at 6.6 per cent, Scotland recorded a solid 4.0 per cent annual increase, with Wales achieving 2.9 per cent growth over the same period.Mortgage marketUK mortgage approvals dipped in November, with 0.7 per cent fewer approvals month-on-month and 6.7 per cent fewer annually. But considering this coincided with the run up to the Budget, falls were more marginal than some predicted and the 12-month rolling rate remains resilient.This points to increased activity this year, supported by an increase in more competitive mortgage rates reaching the market. The effective interest rate on newly drawn mortgages averaged 4.20 per cent in November, down from 4.53 per cent in February, with best-buy fixed rates falling to 3.5 per cent in mid-January. JLL ResearchJLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare and student housing. <h5>Disclaimer: &copy; 2025 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.</h5>

Residential Roundup - 16 January

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Discover the latest insights from Marcus Dixon in the first Residential Roundup of 2026 

Discover the latest insights from Marcus Dixon in the first Residential Roundup of 2026&nbsp;

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Renters' Rights Act

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The Renters&rsquo; Rights Bill (RRB) proposes significant reform within the private rental sector. The bill itself has been making fast progress through Parliament, having already passed through the House of Commons. It is now widely expected to come into effect from this&nbsp;spring onwards.&nbsp;

The Renters’ Rights Bill (RRB) proposes significant reform within the private rental sector. The bill itself has been making fast progress through Parliament, having already passed through the House of Commons. 

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The 2025 Budget provided clarity but little else to materially change our outlook for prices and rents. But a positive response from the bond markets and the Bank of England in rate cutting mode means we are seeing more competitive mortgage rates enter the market, which will, we expect, support activity and price growth over the next five years, albeit at the lower end of historic norms. Forecasts post-BudgetThe High Value Council Tax Surcharge is perhaps the least damaging to market activity of the proposed &lsquo;mansion&rsquo; taxes floated pre-budget. And while we expect that it may impact some buyers and homeowners&rsquo; decision to purchase, the annual
 charge is more likely to be begrudgingly absorbed rather than directly impacting decision-making. The 2% additional tax rate for property income also hits smaller landlords, many of whom have seen profit margins shrink and are facing additional regulatory hoops with the introduction of the Renters&rsquo; Rights Act. We expect this will further encourage landlords on the fence to exit, constraining supply and putting upward pressure on rents. The Budget contained many references to growth, but there were few clear policies that signalled it, a view shared by the OBR in their downbeat forecast for growth and productivity.&nbsp; So, in the absence of any demand side incentives for housing we are relying on an improvement in wider market conditions to support growth. Here there is some more positive news, with the Bank of England now in the rate cutting phase of the cycle, and
 expectation for up to three further cuts to the Base Rate by next summer. An easing in rates and some improvements in housing affordability, with house prices having underperformed wage growth, will help here too. But we expect this will mean a recovery
 to long term norms, rather than any significant outperformance.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1765745114/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Forecasts-Map.jpg" />House pricesJLL forecast house prices will rise by 20% over the next five years UK-wide. More affordable regions are expected to outperform in the near-term, with London and southern England forecast to see stronger growth towards the back end of our five-year period.
Overall, we expect growth of 17.6% across Greater London between 2026 and 2030, compared with 23.4% in the strongest performing English region the North West. Scotland and Wales, usually seeing stronger growth at the tail end of the housing cycle are
 expected to see prices rise by 24.6% and 23.4%, respectively. For central London, clarity around taxation, and the absence of some of the more draconian policies floated pre-Budget will confine the most significant price falls to 2025. JLL&rsquo;s central London sales business had its busiest month in 17 months
 in November, with anxious central London buyers holding off until the Budget now transacting. Price falls in central London are expected to bottom out in H1 2026, as fears of more onerous tax changes subside post-Budget. But with a more domestic focussed buyer pool still looking for value we don&rsquo;t expect this will translate into meaningful
 price increase until later in the five-year forecast period. Meaning prices ending 2026 flat and rising 17% in the five years to 2030.JLL house price forecast<table style="border-collapse:collapse;width:100%;"><thead><tr style="background-color:#5a9bb0;color:white;"><th style="border:1px solid white;padding:10px;text-align:center;" data-role="resizable"></th><th style="border:1px solid white;padding:10px;text-align:center;">2025</th><th style="border:1px solid white;padding:10px;text-align:center;">2026</th><th style="border:1px solid white;padding:10px;text-align:center;">2027</th><th style="border:1px solid white;padding:10px;text-align:center;">2028</th><th style="border:1px solid white;padding:10px;text-align:center;">2029</th><th style="border:1px solid white;padding:10px;text-align:center;">2030</th><th style="border:1px solid white;padding:10px;text-align:center;">Change 2026- 2030</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr style="background-color:#e8e8e8;"><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;font-weight:bold;background-color:#c8d6db;">UK</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">1.5%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">2.0%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">4.0%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">4.5%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">4.5%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">3.5%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">19.9%</td></tr><tr><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;font-weight:bold;background-color:#c8d6db;">Greater London</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">-1.0%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">1.0%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">2.5%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">3.5%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">5.0%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">4.5%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">17.6%</td></tr><tr style="background-color:#e8e8e8;"><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;font-weight:bold;background-color:#c8d6db;">Central London</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">-5.0%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">0.0%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">2.0%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">4.0%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">5.0%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">5.0%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">17.0%</td></tr></tbody></table>Source: JLL ResearchRental marketThe additional tax burden for landlords post-Budget, alongside concerns over the implementation of the Renters&rsquo; Rights Act will mean constrained supply continues, as more landlords exit than enter the sector, supporting rental growth. We forecast rents will rise at marginally above wage growth over the next five years, with 15.9% growth between 2026 and 2030 nationally. A more settled outlook for inflation and wages means our expectations on rental growth are more muted than recent highs. However, this reflects a return to pre-pandemic norms rather than a fundamental shift in market dynamics. Rental growth is forecast to be marginally higher in London, with growth of 17% across Greater London and 16.5% in central London over the same period.JLL rental growth forecast <table style="border-collapse:collapse;width:100%;"><thead><tr style="background-color:#8db89a;color:black;"><th style="border:1px solid white;padding:10px;text-align:center;"></th><th style="border:1px solid white;padding:10px;text-align:center;" data-role="resizable">2025</th><th style="border:1px solid white;padding:10px;text-align:center;">2026</th><th style="border:1px solid white;padding:10px;text-align:center;">2027</th><th style="border:1px solid white;padding:10px;text-align:center;">2028</th><th style="border:1px solid white;padding:10px;text-align:center;">2029</th><th style="border:1px solid white;padding:10px;text-align:center;">2030</th><th style="border:1px solid white;padding:10px;text-align:center;">Change 2026- 2030</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr style="background-color:#e8e8e8;"><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;font-weight:bold;background-color:#b8d0c1;">UK</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">3.0%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">2.5%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">2.5%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">3.0%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">3.5%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">3.5%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">15.9%</td></tr><tr><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;font-weight:bold;background-color:#b8d0c1;">Greater London</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">3.5%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">2.0%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">3.0%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">3.5%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">4.0%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">3.5%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">17.0%</td></tr><tr style="background-color:#e8e8e8;"><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;font-weight:bold;background-color:#b8d0c1;">Central London</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">2.5%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">1.5%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">3.0%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">3.0%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">4.0%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">4.0%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">16.5%</td></tr></tbody></table>Source: JLL ResearchJLL ResearchJLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare and student housing. Disclaimer: &copy; 2025 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.

Residential Forecasts

Discover the latest insights from Marcus Dixon in this week's Residential Roundup, including our latest 2026-2030 forecasts.

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Discussions on the health of the UK economy and housing market recently have been dominated by Budget uncertainty and unanswered questions around the Social &amp; Affordable Homes Programme and rent convergence. While we're still awaiting clarity on these
 two, with the Budget behind us, we can now refocus on underlying market fundamentals.JLL recently held a series of client seminars around the country in partnership with Trowers &amp; Hamlins. Together, we explored the state of the housing market, the latest challenges and opportunities in loan security valuations, and current and emerging
 legal issues surrounding charging and treasury for Registered Providers.
To read our reflections on the 2025 seminars and our outlook for the sector <a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1765745664/resi/gb/Articles/Images/JLL_Affordable_Housing_Seminar_Reflections.pdf">CLICK HERE</a>

Affordable Housing Q4 2025

Discussions on the health of the UK economy and housing market recently have been dominated by Budget uncertainty and unanswered questions around the Social &amp; Affordable Homes Programme and rent convergence. While we're still awaiting clarity on these two, with the Budget behind us, we can now refocus on underlying market fundamentals.

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This was always going to be a balancing act Budget, attempting to keep the party, markets (read bond yields) and the electorate happy. There were some clear concessions to Labour backbenchers, including the abolition of the two-child benefit cap, but it was clear &ndash; even before the Budget began thanks to the OBR - that this would be a Budget of multiple small changes rather than a handful of wide-ranging (but manifesto busting) hikes to income tax or VAT.Confidence returnsThe property industry was not alone in needing clarity after months of speculation that had slowed activity. Simply knowing what would and wouldn't change should provide hesitant buyers and sellers with some confidence to re-enter the market.For the housing market, there were clear (and missed) chances to go further in supporting transactions and unlocking much-needed development. Reforming taxes such as stamp duty, which continues to hold up the market by discouraging people from moving,
 would have made a meaningful difference. Targeted support at the entry level would have made a far greater difference to market mobility, particularly with the OBR acknowledging they expect further falls in housing net additions through to 2027. However, bond markets have reacted positively, suggesting yields may fall further, creating opportunities for rate cuts. While we didn't see demand-side stimulus, we could still see a rise in activity through more competitive debt costs next year.OBR forecastsThe OBR is expecting UK GDP to rise 1.5 per cent this year, up from the 1 per cent forecast in the Spring. House prices growth is expected to broadly track nominal earning growth over the forecast period, rising from &pound;260,000 in 2024 to &pound;305,000
 in 2030. Transactions are expected to rise to around 1.3 million by 2029, up from 1.1 million in 2024, but down by more than 155,000 per annum on the March forecast. Key changes for housingWith so much kite flying pre-Budget, clarity around what changes might be introduced for our sector was much welcome. Rumours of changes to or the removal of Stamp Duty or wide-ranging council tax revaluation were notable in their absence. Overall, we
 could have seen more damaging policies introduced, particularly those impacting the top end of the market, but similarly there was little in the Budget which looked set to dramatically change the trajectory of the market. So, what&rsquo;s changing?
Tax rates for income from rental propertiesFrom April 2027, property income tax rates will increase by two percentage points. Basic rate taxpayers will pay 22%, higher rate 42%, and additional rate 47%. Note that landlords owning properties through limited companies face different rates.These increases risk worsening the supply-demand imbalance in private rental markets. Smaller landlords, already pressured by higher taxes and changing regulations, may choose to exit rather than absorb additional costs&mdash;reducing supply and potentially
 increasing rents.High Value Council Tax Surcharge<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1764248701/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Budget-Roundup-1.jpg" />A new surcharge of between &pound;2,500 and &pound;7,500 per annum from 2028 is perhaps the least painful of the mansion tax proposals mooted in the run-up to the Budget but still targets a sector of the market which has seen continued hikes in taxations
 and stagnation in prices over the past decade. While it may cause some existing homeowners to consider downsizing the likelihood of it making a significant difference to buyers&rsquo; behaviour are limited. Key details<ul><li>Expected to raise around &pound;430 million per year (Council Tax revenues top &pound;40 billion)</li><li>Takes effect in April 2028 and based on the value of properties in 2026. </li><li>A public consultation on the details relating to the surcharge, including reliefs and exemptions is planned for early next year.</li><li>Homeowners, not tenants, will be liable for the surcharge (different from Council Tax which is payable by the occupier). </li><li>The Valuation Office will conduct a targeted valuation to identify properties above &pound;2 million, with revaluations conducted every five years.</li><li>Revenue will be collected alongside Council Tax but will go directly into central government coffers.</li></ul><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1764248701/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Budget-Roundup-2.jpg" />The impact falls disproportionately on London and the South East, which accounted for 90% of &pound;2 million plus sales last year. Previous mansion tax proposals in 2014 aimed to raise &pound;1.2 billion through similar measures, averaging &pound;11,000 per property annually&mdash;nearly three times the current HVCTS rate.It is also worth noting that London boroughs with some of the highest proportion of &pound;2 million plus homes also have some of the lowest council tax. A &pound;2 million Wandsworth property owner facing the additional &pound;2,500 charge currently pays &pound;1,210 annually in Band E council tax. Compare this to a Band E home in Nottingham&mdash;likely below the HVCTS threshold&mdash;where owners pay &pound;3,246 in council tax. The total bill difference narrows to just &pound;464.Other things to watch<ul><li>Early 2026 consultation on replacing the Lifetime ISA with a simpler product&mdash;particularly relevant to London given the &pound;450,000 limit.</li><li>Consultation on potential changes to VAT rules for land intended for social housing. &nbsp;</li><li>Warm Homes Plan &ndash; an additional &pound;1.5bn to help homeowners improve the energy efficiency of their properties.</li><li>Roll back on potential changes to landfill tax &ndash; thankfully avoiding further costs for viability stretched developers.</li></ul>Moving forwardWith the Budget concluded and no major fiscal events planned for a year, greater certainty should help restart market activity. If markets continue responding positively, we could see rates drop more rapidly, easing debt cost burdens across the sector. But to fulfil the government&rsquo;s ambition of building 1.5 million homes we&rsquo;ll need to see more on increasing delivery, improving viability, and demonstrating clear and sustained demand for homes across all sectors of the UK housing market.JLL ResearchJLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare and student housing. <h5>Disclaimer: &copy; 2025 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.</h5>

Residential Roundup - 27 November

Discover the latest insights from Marcus Dixon in this week's Budget Special Residential Roundup, as we dive into the Chancellor's housing market impact 

Discover the latest insights from Marcus Dixon in this week's Budget Special Residential Roundup, as we dive into the Chancellor's housing market impact&nbsp;

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What Rayner&rsquo;s departure &ndash; triggered by Stamp Duty &ndash; means for property taxes in the autumn Budget is unclear. What is, is the need for good advice. Let&rsquo;s hope for more clarity in the run up to the Budget on 26 November.UK economy stagnates<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1755866562/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Sept12-Chart2.jpg" />UK GDP appears to be following a similar path this year to last, with stronger growth earlier on in the year petering out over the summer. The latest monthly GDP figures show growth stagnated in July, following a rise of 0.4 per cent in June, taking growth
 in the three monthly to July to 0.2 per cent. Tariffs, employer NI and potential tax changes in the Budget will all be impacting figures here, but it is important to take these monthly GDP figures with a heavy pinch of salt. They are often revised
 and tend to fluctuate month-on-month. Bond market headacheThe Chancellor will be acutely aware of recent bond market volatility. Long-dated UK gilts &ndash; essentially IOUs from the government &ndash; hit a 27-year peak in early September, with 30-year gilt yields just shy of 5.7 per cent. But rates have eased
 somewhat since then, with the latest 30-year figure now sitting below 5.45 per cent. Rising gilt yields directly increase government's debt servicing costs, creating a challenging fiscal backdrop and increasing the chance of further tax rises and/or spending cuts. This has implication for the housing market too, more directly through
 fixed rates, which are less likely to see any significant reduction while bond yields remain elevated, but also in terms of fiscal headroom. With much hoped for demand side incentives somewhat reliant on a healthier Treasury balance sheet. Recent increases in long-dated bond yields aren't solely a UK phenomenon &ndash; other major economies have experienced similar upward movements in recent months. However, there are several UK-specific elements that cannot be overlooked, demonstrated
 by UK gilt yields moving from a middle-ranking position against other G7 nations' 30-year government bonds to amongst the highest.While scepticism surrounding persistent inflation and Britain's economic prospects certainly plays a role, the story runs deeper. There's been a marked decline in appetite for long-dated bonds from pension funds and insurers &ndash; traditionally the
 most reliable buyers of government debt. This has left fewer purchasers in the marketplace. Adding to this challenge, recent modifications to UK pension regulations &ndash; ironically introduced to stimulate investment in growth assets &ndash; have
 further dampened demand.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1755866562/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Sept12-Chart1.jpg" />All that glittersWith an uncertain outlook globally, investors are flocking to safe-haven assets, reflected in the recent rally in gold prices. Spot gold prices exceeded US $3,500 per ounce in early September, with values up by nearly a third so far this year. Comparing
 gold prices with UK housing clearly demonstrates not only the recent outperformance but also the relative value in UK real estate. A decade ago, the average UK home cost the equivalent of 253 ounces of gold, in September with the price of gold exceeding
 &pound;2,600 per ounce the average home could be bought for the equivalent of less than 100 ounces. Housing marketWe&rsquo;d expected fewer new mortgage advances in Q2 following the pre-1 April SDLT changes, with gross advances dropping 24 per cent on Q1 levels to their lowest since Q1 2024. Nothing to get too het up about though, as overall activity in H1 was up
 by almost &pound;25bn or 18 per cent on H1 2024. Of greater interest were the new commitments figures (an indicator of future advances), which rallied, having plateaued in Q1. In Q2 more than &pound;78 billion of new lending was agreed, up 15 per
 cent on Q1 and 17 per cent higher than the same period a year earlier. This was the highest quarter since pre-mini budget in Q3 2022.The RICS Survey has made for gloomy reading in recent months, and the August edition was no different. The short-term outlook for prices and activity remains downbeat, due in part to the quieter summer period but also increasingly uncertainty around what
 could happen in the Budget. Despite many of the key fundamentals being in a stronger position than they have been for some time (more stock, more motivated sellers and more options for borrowers) the temptation to sit on one&rsquo;s hands remains, with Budget speculation doing little
 to tempt buyers out of the long grass. It is a similar story for the rental market, with the latest RICS survey reporting demand holding steady with marginally more respondents seeing demand rise than fall. At the same time new landlord instructions remained firmly in negative territory, with
 a net balance of -37 per cent the weakest reported for over five years. With less stock reaching the market respondents were more positive on the outlook for rental growth over prices, with a net balance of +27 per cent of respondents expecting rents
 to rise in the next three months. For prices the short-term outlook was more negative but more still expected prices to rise than fall over the next 12 months.&nbsp;<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1755866562/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Sept12-Chart3.jpg" />Renters&rsquo; Rights Bill The Renters&rsquo; Right Bill returned to the Commons on 8 September, edging closer to gaining Royal Assent. Most of the amendments suggested by the House of Lords were rejected. Amendments which ended up on the cutting room floor included the ability
 to charge higher deposits for tenants wanting pets, the inclusion of military housing, and the extension of student exemptions to smaller one- and two-bedroom properties. It&rsquo;s now back with the Lords, who&rsquo;ll have another chance to tweak
 the recommendations before returning to the Commons. Expect further back and forth as we keep you updated on progress over the coming weeks.New researchOur residential research team has been busy this summer, with our latest Big Six Residential Development Report, Buyers and Tenants Survey and our Landlord Survey all released in recent weeks. If you missed any of our latest reports <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/insights">click here.</a> JLL Research<h5>JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare
 and student housing. </h5><h5>Disclaimer: &copy; 2025 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as
 to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any
 means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right
 to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.</h5>

Residential Roundup - 12 September

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It&rsquo;s been a busy couple of weeks in Westminster. A changing of the Labour guard has seen Angela Rayner depart from her three posts as Deputy Prime Minister, Deputy Labour Party Leader and Housing Secretary.

It’s been a busy couple of weeks in Westminster. A changing of the Labour guard has seen Angela Rayner depart from her three posts as Deputy Prime Minister, Deputy Labour Party Leader and Housing Secretary.

It&rsquo;s been a busy couple of weeks in Westminster. A changing of the Labour guard has seen Angela Rayner depart from her three posts as Deputy Prime Minister, Deputy Labour Party Leader and Housing Secretary. David Lammy takes on the Deputy Prime Minister role, Steve Reed replaces her as Housing Secretary and hustings have begun for the Deputy Leader post.&nbsp;

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One of the proposals replaces SDLT with a new national tax to be paid by owner occupiers on houses worth more than &pound;500,000 when they sell their home. The proposed levy would vary dependent upon the value of the property, but the complexity of implementation
 would mean it would take years rather than months to phase out the current system. And with a government looking for an increase in income in the short term, it could well find itself back on the shelf.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1755866562/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Aug22-Chart1.jpg" />Many in the industry (including us here at JLL) have been advocating for an overhaul of property taxes for some time now. So, news that in advance of the budget the Treasury is looking at different aspects of property taxation should be welcomed. However,
 the focus on higher value properties, a sector of the market where purchasers are often most discretionary, could lead to some shelving their plans until we have further clarity. Not helpful for an already sluggish market. The case for stamp duty reformStamp Duty on residential property added more than &pound;10bn to government coffers in the year to March. But an increase in buying costs has meant fewer homes transacting, bad news for labour mobility and the many industries which rely on an active
 and fully functioning housing market. This is particularly true for London, which accounts for just over 10 per cent of UK sales but more than 40 per cent of SDLT revenues. An overhaul of buying costs (SDLT) and holding costs (mainly council tax) is long overdue. But setting new valuation thresholds (effectively valuing every home) has been put in the &lsquo;too difficult&rsquo; pile each time it&rsquo;s been mooted by governments
 of all colours since the first set of 1991 property values were applied.The latest idea purportedly under consideration takes inspiration from the work by think-tank Onward, which advocates replacing stamp duty and council tax (in part) with a national property tax for homes valued at more than &pound;500,000. This would
 roll up and be paid once the property was sold. Revenues would be split between local government and the Treasury, with a minimum rate set to mirror revenue currently collected through council tax, effectively shifting the current purchasing cost
 (SDLT) to a sales cost (national tax). An obvious advantage for those purchasing their first home or upsizing but doing little to encourage downsizing.Proposals exempt social housing, with tax for tenanted properties paid by the owner rather than the occupier (meaning private landlords with homes valued at over &pound;500,000 would pay rather than the tenant &ndash; albeit likely just added to rent).
 The challenge for government will be keeping the Office for Budget Responsibility happy, as the scrapping of SDLT could result in lower revenues in the short term.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1755866562/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Aug22-Chart2.jpg" />Housing marketAll this speculation isn&rsquo;t helpful for a market where buyers remain cautious - the latest residential survey from the RICS painting a gloomy picture for activity in July. Rightmove figures, while still mixed, are a bit more positive, particularly for those vendors willing to be more realistic with their asking prices. There&rsquo;s more stock on the market this year than last, with homes for sale up 10 per cent, a ten-year high. More choice means properties not priced competitively are failing to attract buyers, with more than a third of properties for sale having been reduced in price, the highest for two years. Asking prices dropped 1.3 per cent in August, in line with the usual seasonal trend, albeit following more substantial price cuts in June and July. Asking prices are now almost &pound;10,800 lower than they were last summer.&nbsp; But more competitive asking prices are encouraging buyers to commit, with sales agreed in July up 8 per cent on the same period in 2024 and their highest since 2020. Latest figures from the ONS put UK house prices 3.9 per cent higher annually in June, up from a revised 2.7 per cent in May. Private rents rose 5.9 per cent in the year to July according to ONS figures, with the rate of growth slowing to levels last seen in early 2023. Rents for new lets remained broadly unchanged over the last 12 months, with Homelet data showing rents 0.4 per cent higher this July than last. In other newsUK inflation rose to 3.8 per cent in July. This was marginally above the 3.7 per cent consensus forecast but in line with the latest Bank of England view, which expects UK inflation to peak at 4 per cent in September. Food, fuel and airfares appear to be the main culprits in July, all of which came in hotter than forecasters had predicted.What this means for the rate cutting cycle is far from clear, it likely narrows the odds on a further cut in September, but there will be two further data releases prior to the November meeting, where expectations remain broadly positive for a further 25bps drop. JLL Research<h5>JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare and student housing. </h5><h5>Disclaimer: &copy; 2025 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.</h5>

Residential Roundup - 22 August

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The Autumn Budget is still more than two months off, but the rumour mill is in full swing. Press reports suggest the government is considering a replacement for Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT), a new fairer approach to council tax and a revision to Capital Gains Tax for higher value homes.

The Autumn Budget is still more than two months off, but the rumour mill is in full swing.

The Autumn Budget is still more than two months off, but the rumour mill is in full swing. Press reports suggest the government is considering a replacement for Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT), a new fairer approach to council tax and a revision to Capital Gains Tax for higher value homes.

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Halifax figures are also showing a 2.4 per cent annual rise in July. Mortgage approvals are rising too, with more than 64,000 mortgages approved in June, activity returning to pre-pandemic norms (when rates were significantly lower than they are now).Housing marketThe number of homes sold in June rose 13 per cent on May, with the impact of the 1 April Stamp Duty changes now dissipating.&nbsp; H1 figures show an 18 per cent annual increase in sales nationally, with June sales up 5 per cent year on year.&nbsp; Affordability is improving, at least on paper, with the average house price to income ratio hitting a ratio of 5.75 - a ten-year low. This is down from a high of 6.9 in 2022. Although elevated mortgage rates mean affordability remains more challenging
 for those looking to get onto the ladder. But sellers are having to be more realistic on price. Latest figures from Rightmove show average asking prices dropped by 1.2 per cent in July, equating to an average &pound;4,500 reduction. A reduction in July isn&rsquo;t unusual but the scale of the
 reduction is, with Rightmove reporting the highest July fall in more than twenty years of data. London saw the highest monthly fall, with asking prices 1.5 per cent lower in July than June. This is driven by central London and follows a similar trend
 to that observed in our latest <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/insights/research/jll-pcl-report-q2-2025">PCL report.</a>News from the MPCThe big news of the week was always going to be the Bank Rate.&nbsp; While there were some wobbles, the long-term expectation had always been that August would see a 25bps fall, with the Monetary Policy Committee confirming a lowering of rates to 4 per
 cent on 7 August.&nbsp; While the result wasn&rsquo;t really a surprise, there were more hawks than expected this time round, with members of the Monetary Policy Committee only narrowly voting through the 25bps cut through by five votes to four. The remaining four all felt rates
 should remain at 4.25 per cent (with one of the rate cutters initially voting for a 50bps reduction).This latest cut is unlikely to be a game changer for mortgage rates, with the August fall all but factored in. That said, effective interest rates on newly drawn mortgages fell for the fourth consecutive month in June, down to 4.34 per cent. Lifetime
 Capital is quoting best-buy rates at sub-3.8 per cent for those borrowers viewed upon most favourably by lenders.&nbsp; Consensus forecasts expect one further 25bps cut in 2025 and another in H1 2026, taking us to a 3.5 per cent rate by mid-year 2026.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1754643912/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Aug8-Chart2.jpg" />Bricks versus concreteThose in government and those of us in the housebuilding sector will be hoping some of the positivity around lower rates feeds through into the new homes market this autumn.In our <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/insights/news/residential-roundup-18-july">last Roundup</a> we discussed the latest Molior figures for London, with delays and additional financial pressures associated with &lsquo;high
 risk&rsquo; buildings and the arduous Gateway process culminating in a drop off in flatted urban development.&nbsp; But the challenge isn&rsquo;t just a London one, or indeed just residential. The latest S&amp;P Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) shows a slowdown in activity across their three monitored construction sectors, civil engineering, commercial and residential.
 Respondents cited a lack of tender opportunities and a hesitancy from customers to commit to projects. Supply chain figures from the Mineral Products Association (MPA) echo the drop off in delivery. Sales of ready-mixed concrete fell 11.5 per cent in Q2 2025 compared with Q1, are down by a third in the last ten years and are at their lowest, lockdown aside,
 for 63 years. Brick deliveries are showing more of a mixed picture. Seasonally adjusted monthly data shows 5 per cent fewer bricks delivered in June than May, but activity was up 16 per cent annually, marginally up on the +15 per cent recorded in May. Deliveries are
 on an upward trajectory, with annual figures the highest for two-years, but we&rsquo;ve still got some way to go to get back to pre-pandemic norms.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1754643910/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Aug8-Chart1.jpg" />JLL Research<h5>JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare
 and student housing. </h5><h5>Disclaimer: &copy; 2025 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as
 to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any
 means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right
 to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.</h5>

Residential Roundup - 8 August

After dropping back in June, house prices saw their highest monthly increase for six months in July, with the Nationwide index showing prices rising 2.4 per cent annually, up from 2.1 per cent the previous month.

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Markets still appear to be on the side of the doves, expecting a further reduction in the bank rate next month, but recent announcements on the UK economy have muddied the waters.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1752846331/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-July18-Chart1.png" />Inflation, which came in a little hotter than many had expected in June, could trouble the MPC. CPI rose 3.6 per cent, with the three f&rsquo;s: fuel, flights and food all contributing. Yet despite inflation rising, GDP, jobs and wage growth all fell
 back in the latest numbers. Growth in UK GDP, which had shown some promise in Q1 fell for the second consecutive month in May, down 0.1 per cent, following a -0.3 per cent reading in April. Real GDP is still expected to have grown 0.5 per cent in
 the three months to May, albeit much of this is down to a stronger Q1. But the outlook for UK GDP has improved marginally this year, with consensus forecasts expecting 1 per cent growth this year, up from 0.8 per cent in 2024. Wage growth dropped back in the latest figures, with average earnings excluding bonuses 5 per cent higher in the three months to May compared with the same period a year earlier. This was lower than the 5.3 per cent recorded in April. The ONS Labour Force
 Survey, which I&rsquo;d approach with caution due to low participation rates at present, showed unemployment rose to 4.7 per cent in the three months to May, up from 4.6 per cent a month earlier.Fallout from the rise in employers&rsquo; national insurance, combined with ongoing uncertainty around tariffs and the health of the global economy has seen the number of payrolled staff fall in May, with a 25,000 reduction in May versus April. Yet this
 is lower than previous estimates of more than a 100,000 drop. The latest major announcement was the loss of 500 jobs at Jaguar Land Rover, which posted an 11 per cent reduction in quarterly sales following the pausing of US exports. Early estimates suggest we could see a further reduction in June, with the number of payrolled staff expected to be 178,000 lower in June this year than last, or a reduction of 0.6 per cent. This follows a fall in job vacancies for the 36th consecutive month, albeit setting aside pandemic disruptions, we remain at or above long run norms.News from Mansion HouseIn her annual speech to business leaders at Mansion House, the Chancellor&rsquo;s key theme was loosening regulation to turbocharge growth. Much of the emphasis was around supporting our ailing IPO sector and encouraging investment in the UK stock market
 rather than cash ISAs, albeit not as previously trailed limiting the cash ISA allowance (yet).&nbsp;<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1752846331/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-July18-Chart2.png" />For the housing market, there was some loosening agreed too. Income thresholds for those applying for certain first-time buyer mortgages will be lowered and more mortgages will be available at over 4.5 times income. A move which is expected to provide
 up to 36,000 additional mortgages to first-time buyers in its first year. In addition, a new mortgage guarantee scheme has been confirmed to ensure the ongoing availability of loans at 90 and 95 per cent loan-to-value to assist prospective buyers
 with lower deposits. &nbsp; Where have all the flats gone?There was some encouraging news in the latest S&amp;P Purchasing Managers Index. While overall construction activity remained in contractionary territory housebuilding moved into growth territory for the first time since September 2024. But an increase in activity, which will be welcomed by a government sticking steadfastly to their 1.5 million homes target, is not evident in our cities. Ongoing viability challenges, particularly around &lsquo;High Risk&rsquo; buildings &ndash; those
 at 18 metres or seven storeys high &ndash; and increasing frustrations with the Gateway process and the Building Safety Regulator mean activity is falling.Figures from Molior London show there were fewer than 2,200 private homes started across London in H1 2025, the equivalent of fewer than 5% of the 44,000 private homes target. In the second quarter of 2025, 23 London Boroughs saw no schemes of 20 or more
 private homes start.&nbsp;<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1752846331/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-July18-Chart3.png" />But 2025 figures follow recent trends, with activity across London dropping back since the peak in 2015. Analysis of new homes sales shows that there have been 7,500 more sales than starts in the last five years, with the number of homes under construction across Greater London falling by a third in the last five years. This will have implication for future completions, with Molior London expecting fewer than 10,000 private homes will complete in 2027 and 2028 combined. JLL ResearchJLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare and student housing. <h5>Disclaimer: &copy; 2025 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.</h5>

Residential Roundup - 18 July

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As has become customary, anticipation is building in the run-up to the 7 August meeting of the Bank of England&rsquo;s Monetary Policy Committee.

As has become customary, anticipation is building in the run-up to the 7 August meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee.

As has become customary, anticipation is building in the run-up to the 7 August meeting of the Bank of England&rsquo;s Monetary Policy Committee.

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Zoopla is reporting sales agreed in the four weeks to mid-June are up 6 per cent annually, but stock levels continue to rise more quickly than demand, meaning increases in activity are not driving significant price rises.House prices Nationwide's house price index shows prices dipped 0.8 per cent in June compared with May, meaning annual growth in prices dropped back from 3.5 per cent in May to 2.1 per cent last month. Expect to see annual averages increase a little in the coming
 months as the market continues to settle.Zoopla reported asking prices rose 1.4 per cent annually in May, with stock on the market up 14 per cent year-on-year. This outpaced new buyer demand, rising by 7 per cent over the same period. Higher value markets saw the most marked increase in stock
 for sale, with activity at the top end of the market more sluggish than at the lower end. Prices in areas where house prices average under &pound;200k rose 2.7 per cent compared with falls of 0.7 per cent in areas where prices top &pound;500k.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1751631279/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-July4-Chart1.png" />Market activity Mortgage approvals numbers began to recover in May, rising 3.9 per cent month-on-month on a slow April and 3 per cent higher than May 2024. But these numbers point to a steady rise in activity rather than a significant uptick. Average rates paid on new
 loans fell in May to 4.47 per cent with sub-4 per cent rates now available for both two- and five-year fixes for those with higher deposits. Forecasters are still anticipating up to two further rate cuts this year, taking the bank rate to 3.75% by
 the year end, but uncertainty around swap rates means that we are not expecting to see further significant falls in best buy rates in the near term.Following a slow post-SDLT April, transactions recovered in May. Seasonally adjusted figures show there were 25 per cent more sales in May than April, but volumes remained 12 per cent lower than the May figure a year ago.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1751631279/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-July4-Chart2.png" />What does this mean for our outlook? The time taken to sell a home (from listing to completion) now exceeds 200 days according to research by TwentyEA. This means homeowners listing their homes today would be expected to pick up the keys to their new home in late January 2026.As well as increasing the likelihood of a sale falling through &ndash; time is often the killer of deals - this means that prices achieved on completion for homes in 2025 will largely reflect offers already accepted by vendors. As a result, even if we see a pick-up in activity later in the year, with more competitive mortgage rates and improved buyer confidence increasing activity, this uptick will be reflected in the 2026 rather than 2025 stats.Our forecasts for this year, made back in November, were for a gradual recovery in prices, aided by more competitive mortgage rates and political certainty following a Labour majority at the General Election. While the benefits of a strong majority have been tested in recent weeks and the outlook for the UK economy remains underwhelming, the housing market continues to follow a path of slow but steady recovery.Despite the stamp duty changes muddying the waters more recently, we are leaving our current forecasts for 3.5 per cent annual growth in UK prices in 2025 unchanged. Similarly, our expectations that higher value markets would lag in 2025 are still evident in the latest house price data, meaning we still expect that price growth in London will be more modest, rising by 2.5 per cent in 2025.A different story in Central London The only market where we are revising our 2025 forecast is Central London. Ongoing uncertainty around government plans to tax (or not) non-doms on their global assets means fewer prospective buyers at the top end of the market this summer. Here at JLL we've seen 8 per cent fewer new applicants registering with our offices in Q2 this year versus last, with LonRes data showing the numbers of sales so far this year at &pound;5million or more are down 14 per cent and &pound;10million plus sales down 20 per cent.Sold prices (excluding new homes) fell 3.9 per cent annually across Prime Central London in Q2 2025, meaning our expectations for 3 per cent growth by the year end is increasingly unlikely. Additional tax liabilities for overseas buyers and those buying additional properties from April, alongside ongoing uncertainty around the non-dom regime, are all impacting buyer appetite. A U-turn on the exposure of non-doms' global assets to UK inheritance tax could help, but many will be waiting for further clarity before making their decision to stay, go or relocate. In the meantime, buyers remain cautious and stock levels in the second-hand market, up 13 per cent annually, are outstripping demand.Relative scarcity of stock in the new homes market in central London means we are not seeing any notable reduction in prices, but activity remains skewed towards owner-occupiers and needs-based purchasers rather than investors, with sales volumes lower than historic norms.We expect some markets - particularly those neighbourhoods more reliant upon high-net-worth overseas buyers - will see prices end the year lower than they started, but others could see small single digit annual increases this year. This means overall we expect prices to be flat in 2025, with growth of 2 per cent forecast in 2026.The slowdown in rental growth experienced across most UK markets is following the path we forecast in November, so we'll be maintaining our current forecast for growth nationally of 3.0 per cent in 2025.JLL ResearchJLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare and student housing. Disclaimer: &copy; 2025 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.

Residential Roundup - 4 July

Three months on from the March stamp duty deadline and the housing market is gradually emerging from the SDLT fog. Zoopla is reporting sales agreed in the four weeks to mid-June are up 6 per cent annually, but stock levels continue to rise more quickly than demand, meaning increases in activity are not driving significant price rises.

Three months on from the March stamp duty deadline and the housing market is gradually emerging from the SDLT fog. 

Three months on from the March stamp duty deadline and the housing market is gradually emerging from the SDLT fog.

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This wasn&rsquo;t unexpected, with the impact of higher energy costs alongside annual increases in council tax and rail fares contributing to the 3.5 per cent rise.
The optimist&rsquo;s view is that this could be short lived though, with Ofgem announcing a 7 per cent reduction in the energy price cap between July and September this year, compared to a 6 per cent rise in the three months to June.&nbsp;
Higher than expected CPI figures follow news that the UK economy grew by 0.7 per cent in Q1 2025, above the 0.6 per cent forecast and 0.1 per cent recorded in Q4 2024. But policy change, both domestically and internationally, means the path for the remainder
 of 2025 is far from clear, with the impact of employer NI and tariffs still to play out in the GDP figures in the coming months.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1748531146/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-May30-Chart1.jpg" />
Housing market
The post-stamp duty change hangover appears to have been short lived, with the latest figures from Zoopla showing the number of sales agreed in May at their highest level for four years and up 6% on 2024. Sellers are returning to the market too, with
 new listings up 6% and stock on the market 13% higher than at the same point a year ago. 
The latest ONS figures for March show average UK house prices rose 6.4 per cent annually to &pound;271,000, equating to a &pound;16,000 increase on March 2024. First time buyer prices rose 7.1 per cent, outpacing growth for home movers (5.4 per cent).
 Although it is worth noting the impact of the 1 April stamp duty change on these figures. 
For rents, the ONS Private Rents Index showed an annual increase in rents of 7.4 per cent in the 12 months to April 2025. This is down from 7.7 per cent in March but continues to remain elevated compared with new let indicators, with April figures from
 Homelet up just 0.3 per cent annually.&nbsp;
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1748531146/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-May30-Chart2.jpg" />
Time to rethink incentives? 
The government has made clear commitments to building more homes and improving the quality and efficiency of our existing housing stock. However, the responsibility for building this stock lies predominantly with housebuilders, who have responsibilities
 to their shareholders and need to ensure there is a market for any homes they deliver. Whether that be for open market sale, investment, or sales to affordable housing providers. 
The cost to improve existing stock also lies (a few government subsidies aside) with property owners. Whether that be housing associations or other social housing providers, who need to improve stock without any demonstrable increase in rents, or owners
 in the private sector.
The government has clear ambitions to achieve a blanket EPC C+ rating for the private rented sector and social housing, but if we are serious about encouraging and rewarding improvements, we&rsquo;ll need to rethink how we approach this going forward.

New homes are already a step ahead, with 97% of new homes delivered having an EPC of C or above, with 86% rated A or B in Q1 2025.&nbsp; This compares with 6% EPC A or B and 52% EPC C for existing homes. 
To encourage purchasers to buy new and more energy efficient homes, or to reward homeowners for investing in improving the energy efficiency of their homes should we be offering Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) incentives to encourage activity and improvements?
Cutting SDLT by 50% for A or B rated properties, and by 25% for those rated C could provide a clear incentive for buyers and rewards sellers too. Those bringing homes to market at EPC C or above may be more likely to attract buyers due to lower running
 costs and reduced purchase costs. 
What difference could this make? 
If implemented, a first-time buyer purchasing a home at &pound;500,000 could save &pound;5,000 buying an EPC A or B rated home, with home-movers paying &pound;7,500, compared with &pound;15,000 for a home rated D or below. Perhaps a harder sell for government
 would be applying this to investors too, but if we are looking to improve the quality and efficiency of our rental stock offering the same reduction in SDLT would further encourage the purchase of more efficient homes. An investor buying a &pound;500,000
 EPC A or B rated property would still be paying four times the SDLT of a first-time buyer, but saving &pound;20,000 compared with an EPC D home.&nbsp;
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1748531146/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-May30-Chart3.jpg" />
But what about the black hole? 
We understand that discussions on tax breaks at a time when government finances are increasingly stretched could be challenging.&nbsp; However, even if stamp duty take per property fell, more activity means the difference between overall receipts may
 not be as significant. Indeed, encouraging activity in the housing market brings in far more revenue than SDLT alone, providing a boost for the wider economy as well as helping to deliver more better-quality homes. We&rsquo;ll hopefully know more
 following the June Spending Review, but in the meantime, we hope that the Government are considering demand and as well as supply when thinking about how to deliver more homes.
JLL Research
JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare
 and student housing. 
Disclaimer: &copy; 2025 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as
 to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any
 means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right
 to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.

Residential Roundup - 30 May

UK inflation, which had been coming in below forecast earlier this year, spiked according to the latest April figures.

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This wasn&rsquo;t unexpected, with the impact of higher energy costs alongside annual increases in council tax and rail fares contributing to the 3.5 per cent rise.The optimist&rsquo;s view is that this could be short lived though, with Ofgem announcing a 7 per cent reduction in the energy price cap between July and September this year, compared to a 6 per cent rise in the three months to June.&nbsp;Higher than expected CPI figures follow news that the UK economy grew by 0.7 per cent in Q1 2025, above the 0.6 per cent forecast and 0.1 per cent recorded in Q4 2024. But policy change, both domestically and internationally, means the path for the remainder
 of 2025 is far from clear, with the impact of employer NI and tariffs still to play out in the GDP figures in the coming months.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1748531146/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-May30-Chart1.jpg" />Housing marketThe post-stamp duty change hangover appears to have been short lived, with the latest figures from Zoopla showing the number of sales agreed in May at their highest level for four years and up 6% on 2024. Sellers are returning to the market too, with
 new listings up 6% and stock on the market 13% higher than at the same point a year ago. The latest ONS figures for March show average UK house prices rose 6.4 per cent annually to &pound;271,000, equating to a &pound;16,000 increase on March 2024. First time buyer prices rose 7.1 per cent, outpacing growth for home movers (5.4 per cent).
 Although it is worth noting the impact of the 1 April stamp duty change on these figures. For rents, the ONS Private Rents Index showed an annual increase in rents of 7.4 per cent in the 12 months to April 2025. This is down from 7.7 per cent in March but continues to remain elevated compared with new let indicators, with April figures from
 Homelet up just 0.3 per cent annually.&nbsp;<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1748531146/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-May30-Chart2.jpg" />Time to rethink incentives? The government has made clear commitments to building more homes and improving the quality and efficiency of our existing housing stock. However, the responsibility for building this stock lies predominantly with housebuilders, who have responsibilities
 to their shareholders and need to ensure there is a market for any homes they deliver. Whether that be for open market sale, investment, or sales to affordable housing providers. The cost to improve existing stock also lies (a few government subsidies aside) with property owners. Whether that be housing associations or other social housing providers, who need to improve stock without any demonstrable increase in rents, or owners
 in the private sector.The government has clear ambitions to achieve a blanket EPC C+ rating for the private rented sector and social housing, but if we are serious about encouraging and rewarding improvements, we&rsquo;ll need to rethink how we approach this going forward.
 New homes are already a step ahead, with 97% of new homes delivered having an EPC of C or above, with 86% rated A or B in Q1 2025.&nbsp; This compares with 6% EPC A or B and 52% EPC C for existing homes. To encourage purchasers to buy new and more energy efficient homes, or to reward homeowners for investing in improving the energy efficiency of their homes should we be offering Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) incentives to encourage activity and improvements?Cutting SDLT by 50% for A or B rated properties, and by 25% for those rated C could provide a clear incentive for buyers and rewards sellers too. Those bringing homes to market at EPC C or above may be more likely to attract buyers due to lower running
 costs and reduced purchase costs. What difference could this make? If implemented, a first-time buyer purchasing a home at &pound;500,000 could save &pound;5,000 buying an EPC A or B rated home, with home-movers paying &pound;7,500, compared with &pound;15,000 for a home rated D or below. Perhaps a harder sell for government
 would be applying this to investors too, but if we are looking to improve the quality and efficiency of our rental stock offering the same reduction in SDLT would further encourage the purchase of more efficient homes. An investor buying a &pound;500,000
 EPC A or B rated property would still be paying four times the SDLT of a first-time buyer, but saving &pound;20,000 compared with an EPC D home.&nbsp;<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1748531146/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-May30-Chart3.jpg" />But what about the black hole? We understand that discussions on tax breaks at a time when government finances are increasingly stretched could be challenging.&nbsp; However, even if stamp duty take per property fell, more activity means the difference between overall receipts may not be as significant. Indeed, encouraging activity in the housing market brings in far more revenue than SDLT alone, providing a boost for the wider economy as well as helping to deliver more better-quality homes. We&rsquo;ll hopefully know more following the June Spending Review, but in the meantime, we hope that the Government are considering demand and as well as supply when thinking about how to deliver more homes.JLL ResearchJLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare and student housing. Disclaimer: &copy; 2025 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.

Discover the latest market insights from Marcus Dixon in this week's Residential Roundup

UK inflation, which had been coming in below forecast earlier this year, spiked according to the latest April figures.

The negative reaction to the tariffs rippled through the money markets. Trillions of dollars were wiped off the value of global stocks, but news of a pause saw the markets breathe a sigh of relief, with single-day gains of 9.5 per cent for the S&amp;P
 500 and 12 per cent for the tech-heavy Nasdaq, although worth noting still not back to their pre-'Liberation Day' highs. Similar rebounds occurred across the Asian markets, and closer to home, the FTSE 100 rose 6 per cent, but remains 5 per cent lower
 than on 1 April.The pausing of variable tariffs arguably has less of a direct impact on the UK, as in essence we are in the same position here as we were before 9 April. The UK's more passive approach over the last week should curry favour with the White House, with
 much pinned on the potential for further negotiations in the coming days and weeks. But arguably some of the UK's 'advantage' in being a lower tariff trading partner could be watered down; we'll need to see how negotiations pan out. What does this all mean for the UK economy and housing market? There was better news on the state of the UK economy in February, with monthly GDP growth of 0.5 per cent, up from 0 per cent in January. But economically February seems a long time ago, with the wider impact of tariffs, employer NI and increases in utility
 bills and council tax all likely to impact GDP figures in the coming months.US tariffs, whatever numbers are eventually settled on, are likely to have a negative impact on growth for economies outside the US &ndash; and possibly for the US too. Inflation rates outside the US could drop back as exports become more expensive and
 goods previously destined for the US find their way to more tariff-friendly shores. Whatever happens, the &pound;9.9bn headroom from the Spring Statement looks set to be challenged, meaning further tweaks to taxation could be on the cards at the next
 fiscal event in the autumn. But as the last seven days have proven, a week is a long time in politics (and economics), so we'll need to wait and see what the ramifications are for the UK in the longer term.Mortgage rates dropTariff-induced uncertainty has impacted bond yields and the interbank lending rate, with two-year swaps at their lowest level since Liz Truss was in No.10. This means forecasters now expect the Monetary Policy Committee could reduce the bank rate up to
 four times this year, up from a consensus forecast of just two rate cuts back in March.Mortgage lenders have reacted, with Barclays, TSB, and Coventry Building Society amongst others cutting rates by more than 25 bps, with best-buy two and five-year fixed rates now available at sub 4%. This could prove positive for the UK government too,
 with lower debt servicing costs if rates fall more quickly than anticipated.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1743090226/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Apr11-Chart1.jpg" />Housing marketIn the short term at least, it is likely that the 1 April Stamp Duty deadline will have contributed more to the Q2 outlook for the housing market than tariffs. Figures from the Nationwide suggest house prices were 3.9 per cent higher in March than they
 were a year earlier, with growth flat compared with February. Halifax were a little more downbeat, with prices down 0.5 per cent month-on-month and up 2.8 per cent annually.The latest survey from the RICS released this week remained gloomy. New buyer demand dropped back in March, with a net balance of -32 per cent of respondents reporting a drop in new buyer demand, down from -16 per cent the previous month.As is often the case following an increase in Stamp Duty costs, expectations on activity in the short term remain subdued, with more respondents (a net balance of -18 per cent) expecting fewer agreed sales in Q2.More agents reported an increase in stock reaching the market, but this had also dropped back, with a net balance of +6 per cent in March compared with an average of +17 per cent average over the last six months. This is all impacting the short-term outlook
 for prices, with a higher proportion of agents expecting prices will fall over the next three months. But looking at the next 12 months, some positivity remains, with +39 per cent of respondents expecting prices would be higher in 12 months' time.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1743090226/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Apr11-Chart2.jpg" />Rental marketThe outlook was more positive for the rental market. Tenant demand is increasing as we move into the Spring, with the March RICS survey reporting a net balance of +20 per cent of agents who had seen tenant demand rise in Q1, with expectations on rental increases also remaining in positive territory at a net balance of +31 per cent. Stock levels remain constrained, with a net balance of 24 per cent of agents reporting a drop in new landlord instructions. Homelet data shows average UK rents for new lets rose to &pound;1,288 per month in March, up 1 per cent on February. Average rents on new lets were 2.0 per cent higher in London and 3.5 per cent higher in the rest of the UK on an annual basis.JLL ResearchJLL is a leading global professional services firm specialising in real estate and investment management, with $16.6bn annual revenue in 2020, operations in over 80 countries and a global workforce of over 90,000.&nbsp; With over 7,000 employees and 15 offices in the UK, we support our investor, developer, and occupier clients at every stage of the property lifecycle across both commercial and residential asset classes. This includes land purchase, access to capital, planning, development advisory, leasing, building management and sales. JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare and student housing. Disclaimer: &copy; 2025 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.

Residential Roundup - 11 April

News that the first Universal theme park in Europe would be built in Bedfordshire was not the biggest roller coaster announcement this week. That accolade was reserved for Trump's tariffs.

News that the first Universal theme park in Europe would be built in Bedfordshire was not the biggest roller coaster announcement this week. That accolade was reserved for Trump's tariffs. At the time of writing (an important caveat right now), the US has announced a 90-day 'pause' on implementing variable tariffs on all countries bar China.

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There was better news beyond 2025, with the OBR upgrading their outlook for GDP growth from 2026 onwards, averaging 1.75 per cent per annum from 2026 to 2029. Fiscal headroom is expected to be restored to just shy of &pound;10bn by 2029/30, albeit still
 tight in historic terms, leaving the door open for further tax hikes, or at the very least tweaks, later in the year.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1743090226/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Mar27-Chart.jpg" />Inflation comes in below expectation at 2.8 per centIn what must have been welcome news for Labour&rsquo;s front bench the latest inflation figures, released on the day of the Spring Statement, showed CPI dipping below 3 per cent to a lower than forecast 2.8 per cent in February. Core inflation (the measure
 which strips out food and energy) also defied expectations as it dropped back from 3.7 per cent in January to 3.5 per cent. The OBR forecast that inflation will be higher than it previously expected this year, with 2025 CPI now expected to average 3.25 per cent, 60bps higher than the October forecast &ndash; a result of higher than anticipated rises in the cost of energy and
 food.
The jury is still out on what this means for the next meeting of the MPC &ndash; remember they chose to hold rates at the last one &ndash; but we expect that a further two to three 25bps cuts could still be on the cards in 2025. Housing as a driver of growthThere were more namechecks for housing than we&rsquo;d expected in the Spring Statement, cementing housebuilding&rsquo;s role in Labour&rsquo;s growth plans. We were already aware of some of the government&rsquo;s announcements, including an additional
 slug of funds for affordable housing and money to support recruitment and training for the under-resourced construction sector, but the OBR view on the impact of planning reform made for interesting reading, too. Building the construction workforce (&pound;600m)Combining government ambitions to build more homes with the considerable work underway to retrofit UK housing stock and rectify building safety has left the UK construction workforce stretched, before we even consider the significant increase in activity
 needed to get close to the Government&rsquo;s 1.5 million homes target. But our construction workforce is ageing and set to shrink further at a time when demand is rising. To stem this Rachel Reeves has announced a &pound;600m investment in training the construction workers of the future. This investment is intended to provide 60,000 additional construction workers by 2029. The creation of a new Constructions Skills Mission
 Board will be set up to oversee the plans, with funds also being allocated for 10 new technical colleges and &pound;165m earmarked for existing colleges to enable them to deliver more construction courses. More money for affordable housing (&pound;2bn)<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1743177166/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Mar27-Chart3.jpg" />A &pound;2bn top up for affordable housing was announced pre-Spring Statement. The money is earmarked to provide an additional 18,000 affordable and social homes, equating to just over &pound;111,000 per property. The &pound;2bn follows two recent top
 ups totalling &pound;800m and is intended to provide a bridge between the 2021-2026 Affordable Housing Programme and the new grant funding scheme set to be announced at the spending review in June. Touching distance of 1.5 million homes&hellip;The OBR report provided some punchy forecasts for housing delivery, albeit coming with some degree of uncertainty and a fair few caveats. Revisions to the National Planning Policy Framework is expected to permanently increase the level of real GDP by
 0.2 per cent by 2029/30 and boost housebuilding by 170,000 homes over the next five years. OBR forecasts five-year UK-wide net additions ranging from 1.2 million (its low scenario) to 1.3 million (its high). Although worth noting this not only falls short of the 1.5 million target, but also that the target (1.5m) applies to England only. With
 England accounting for around 85% of UK net additions this suggests we could see between 1 million and 1.1 million homes delivered against the 1.5 million target. More work needs to be done to unlock housebuilding, and while planning reform is part of that solution we&rsquo;re holding out (and calling) for more demand side stimulus at the Spending Review in June. JLL ResearchJLL is a leading global professional services firm specialising in real estate and investment management, with $16.6bn annual revenue in 2020, operations in over 80 countries and a global workforce of over 90,000.&nbsp; With over 7,000 employees and 15
 offices in the UK, we support our investor, developer, and occupier clients at every stage of the property lifecycle across both commercial and residential asset classes. This includes land purchase, access to capital, planning, development advisory,
 leasing, building management and sales. JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare
 and student housing. Disclaimer: &copy; 2025 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as
 to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any
 means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right
 to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.

Residential Roundup - 27 March

Entering government Rachel Reeves committed to just one fiscal event a year. Yet in the run up to this Spring Statement it felt more like a mini budget as we braced for the Office for Budget Responsibility end-of-term report on the UK economy.&nbsp;

Entering government Rachel Reeves committed to just one fiscal event a year. Yet in the run up to this Spring Statement it felt more like a mini budget as we braced for the Office for Budget Responsibility end-of-term report on the UK economy. 

Entering government Rachel Reeves committed to just one fiscal event a year. Yet in the run up to this Spring Statement it felt more like a mini budget (hopefully not like the last one) as we braced for the Office for Budget Responsibility end-of-term report on the UK economy.&nbsp;Conditions are looking a little gloomier, at least in the short term. The outlook for UK GDP growth was cut from 2 per cent to 1 per cent for 2025. But the OBR had until now been more bullish on UK GDP than many other forecasters, with the consensus forecast on 2025 GDP growth sitting at 1.1 per cent pre-statement, closer to the revised OBR view.

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<h3 class="featuredProperties__title">Featured properties </h3>

<h3 class="featuredProperties__title">Featured developments </h3>

<h3 class="featuredProperties__title">Featured resales</h3>

<h3 class="featuredProperties__title">Featured developments</h3>

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Homepage SEO Article 1 - Properties for sale

Homepage SEO Article 2 - Properties for rent

Homepage SEO Article 3 - Get a valuation

UK Contacts

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PRIVACY NOTICE
Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL), together with its subsidiaries and affiliates, is a leading global provider of real estate and investment management services. We take our responsibility to protect the personal information provided to us seriously.
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