Prime Central London Report - Q1 2024

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This quarter&rsquo;s Prime Central London Report incorporates the results of our quarterly JLL Prime Central London Index, and here we outline exactly how the market has been performing since the year began.

This quarter’s Prime Central London Report incorporates the results of our quarterly JLL Prime Central London Index, and here we outline exactly how the market has been performing since the year began.

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Prime Central London Report – Q4 2023

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<div>Welcome&nbsp;to&nbsp;our&nbsp;Prime&nbsp;Central&nbsp;London&nbsp;Q4&nbsp;2023&nbsp;report,&nbsp;which&nbsp;tracks&nbsp;activity&nbsp;in&nbsp;the&nbsp;capital&rsquo;s&nbsp;prime&nbsp;property&nbsp;market&nbsp;during the&nbsp;final&nbsp;three&nbsp;months&nbsp;of&nbsp;2023.</div>

Welcome to our Prime Central London Q4 2023 report, which tracks activity in the capital’s prime property market during the final three months of 2023.

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Prime Central London Report – Q3 2023

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While this year&rsquo;s British summer was a typical tale of contrasting conditions, the UK housing market experienced similar levels of changeability between July and September due to ongoing economic uncertainty.

While this year’s British summer was a typical tale of contrasting conditions, the UK housing market experienced similar levels of changeability between July and September due to ongoing economic uncertainty.

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<div class="row">
    <h2><strong style="background-color:initial;font-size:inherit;text-align:inherit;text-transform:inherit;word-spacing:normal;caret-color:auto;white-space:inherit;">Q2 2023 Sales Index</strong><br /></h2>
</div>
<p><strong></strong>The JLL Prime Central London Index saw prices fall for the third consecutive quarter.&nbsp; The Q2 2023 index recorded a quarterly fall of 2.1%, with prices 5.9% down compared with the same period in 2022. Prices are now 6.8% lower than
    they were when prices peaked in the third quarter last year.&nbsp; </p>
<p>The upper echelons of London&rsquo;s prime market are proving more resilient. With prices down 0.8% in the 12 months to June 2023 compared with a 6.7% fall in homes priced at under &pound;2 million (likely to be most impacted by changes in interest rates).
</p>
<p>Despite sentiment impacting prices we saw deals agreed (exchanges) increase in an admittedly slow Q1 this quarter, with a 28% increase in sales in Q2 2023.&nbsp; With volumes on par with Q2 2022 (down -1.2%). </p>
<p>Stock levels rose in Q2, with 8.3% more properties on the market than in Q2 2022 and 9.7% more than at the end of the first quarter this year. Stock on the market is now at the highest level since the end of Q2 2020. </p>
<h2><strong>Q2 2023 Lettings Index</strong></h2>
<p><strong></strong>The uncertainty which is hampering activity in the sales market often has the opposite effect on lettings. With households more likely to stay in rented for longer or choosing to rent when delaying their decision to buy. Just over half
    (51%) of JLL deals agreed in Q2 2023 were renewals, up from 45% a year ago and 24% in Q2 2021. This was the highest rate of renewal since Q2 2020. </p>
<p>The number of new lets rose this quarter compared with last, up 13%.&nbsp; But the second quarter is usually more active than the first. Comparing new lets agreed (excluding renewals) in the second quarter this year with Q2 last year showing there were
    18% fewer deals agreed, with the number agreed down 35% compared with the Q2 five-year average.</p>
<p>This quarter the JLL Prime Central London Index saw rents rise by 1.9%, with rents 5.4% higher than they were at the same point a year ago. Small flats (1 and 2 beds) saw this highest annual increase in rents at 6.7% whereas more expensive properties
    (&pound;3,000 per week or more) saw a more modest 2.9% annual increase. </p>
<p>Rents are now 26% higher for one-bedroom flats (which have seen the highest growth) than they were three years ago at the end of Q2 2020. With the JLL Prime Central London Rental Index 19.2% higher overall over the last three years.</p>
<p>For prospective tenants having to contend with low stock levels there appears to be some respite as we move into the summer. Stock levels are starting to increase, albeit off a low base. With the number of rental properties listed to let at the end of
    Q2 2023 up 13.8% on the same point in 2022. But volumes remain 55% down on levels we were seeing pre-pandemic in Q2 2019. </p>
<h2>All Source: JLL/ LonRes</h2>
<p><strong>Our JLL Prime Central London Index is based on a &lsquo;basket&rsquo; of properties, valued by JLL at the end of each quarter. </strong></p>
<p><strong>Director of UK Residential Research at JLL, Marcus Dixon, explains: </strong></p>
<p><em>&ldquo;The implications of stubborn inflation on the UK mortgage market are hampering activity in prime central London. While fewer buyers are heavily indebted - almost half buy cash - uncertainty surrounding the short-term outlook is impacting prices. </em><em></em></p>
<p><em>&ldquo;The lettings market remains competitive, stock levels have improved on their 2022 lows but there are still more prospective tenants than there are properties. This has resulted in further rent increases this quarter, with rents almost 20% higher than they were in 2020.</em><em></em></p>
<p><em>&ldquo;The lower end of the rental market continues to see a steady stream of (formerly) prospective buyers moving across into lettings. With smaller properties, mainly one- and two-bedroom flats, recording the highest annual increase in rents, while prices for similar properties are seeing more significant falls than homes in more expensive price bands.&rdquo;</em></p>

JLL – Prime Central London (PCL) Index – Q2 2023

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The recent rise in interest rates does not impact all sectors of the housing market equally.&nbsp; With more than half of all owner-occupied homes having no mortgage secured against them and cash purchase, particularly in higher value prime markets, making up a significant proportion of homes sold.

The recent rise in interest rates does not impact all sectors of the housing market equally.

Prime Central London (PCL) Index – Q2 2023

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<p><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1683722906/resi/gb/Articles/PDFs/PCL_Report_Q1_2023_-_V8.pdf" target="_blank"><button class="Button primary" style="text-align:center;">Download full report</button></a></p><p>A higher proportion of homes bought with cash and a sustained lack of stock in the most sought-after locations means Prime Central London (PCL) is less tied to fluctuations in UK mortgage rates.<strong> </strong>However, the central London market is not
    immune to changes in economic conditions, with sentiment rather than interest rates often having a greater impact on activity and pricing. And while Prime Central London is less reliant on debt the discretionary nature of many purchasers buying decisions
    means PCL is often more reactive to changes in sentiment and economic headwinds than mainstream, both when prices fall and when they increase.</p><p>&nbsp;For the rental market, uncertainty often increases demand with prospective purchasers holding off on their decision to purchase and renting or remaining in rented instead. We continue to see demand outstripping supply for prime homes, but there
    is more balance in the market this year than we have seen over the last 12 months. Stock levels, while still significantly lower than the pre-pandemic norms have improved, and rental growth recorded in the Q1 2023 JLL Prime Central London Index has
    returned to single rather than double digit annual growth.</p><p><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1683722906/resi/gb/Articles/PDFs/PCL_Report_Q1_2023_-_V8.pdf" target="_blank"><button class="Button primary" style="text-align:center;">Download full report</button></a></p>

Prime Central London – Q1 2023

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How has the Prime Central London (PCL) housing market performed so far this year, and how much of an impact will the ongoing economic headwinds have on the sector?

<p><strong>How has the Prime Central London (PCL) housing market performed so far this year, and how much of an impact will the ongoing economic headwinds have on the sector?</strong></p>

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<p>PRIVACY NOTICE</p>
<p>Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL), together with its subsidiaries and affiliates, is a leading global provider of real estate and investment management services. We take our responsibility to protect the personal information provided to us seriously.</p>
<p>Generally the personal information we collect from you are for the purposes of dealing with your enquiry.</p>
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Prime Central London Report - Q1 2024

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Prime Central London – Q1 2023