<h2>UK Economy</h2>
<p>Better than expected news on the UK economy has given the Committee (and Burnham&rsquo;s new cabinet) some breathing space. Inflation (CPI) fell back to 2.6 per cent in the 12 months to June, down from 2.8 per cent in May. Fuel and food underpinned the
    lower than anticipated figure.</p>
<p>But the good news on inflation is expected to be short-lived. Increases in the energy price cap (up 13 per cent from July) and uncertainty in the Middle East have resulted in crude oil prices again exceeding $90 per barrel. As a result, expectations on
    inflation have increased for H2.</p>
<p>News is mixed on the employment market too. On one hand the unemployment rate remains at sub 5 per cent, standing at 4.9 per cent in the three months to April. But there are more people looking for work than jobs available and youth unemployment remains
    a significant challenge. The latest figures from the ONS suggest more than 1 million under-25s are not in education, employment or training (Neets), equating to one in every seven people in that age group.</p>

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/>
<h2>Mortgage market</h2>
<p>Mortgage approvals recovered in June, increasing 2.9 per cent to 58,200, according to the Bank of England. But this follows a slow May, when approvals fell 13 per cent&mdash;the steepest monthly drop in 44 months. Despite the rebound, June's figure remains
    10 per cent below the ten-year average. Year-on-year approvals fell 6 per cent.</p>
<p>But ongoing uncertainty around inflation and energy costs means mortgage rates edged up. The Bank of England &lsquo;effective&rsquo; interest rate&mdash;the actual interest paid on newly drawn mortgages&mdash;increased to 4.35 per cent in June from 4.22
    per cent in May. Several lenders have increased their rates in recent days, with Moneyfacts reporting average two-year fixed rates of 5.59 per cent, which is the highest since late June but remains below the recent April peak, when average rates hit
    5.9 per cent.</p>
<h2>New homes</h2>
<p>A new Prime Minister and a significant cabinet reshuffle would have been an ideal opportunity to quietly drop the 1.5 million homes target. But instead, Angela Rayner, back in the housing seat, has reasserted the government&rsquo;s commitment to the target&mdash;albeit
    it&rsquo;s now firmly viewed as an ambition. That&rsquo;s despite no English region delivering anywhere close to the housing need target. London, as we&rsquo;ve discussed before, has the highest target and the widest gap in delivery.</p>
<p>On the face of it the Q2 figures from Molior London were more encouraging. The number of starts rose 31 per cent on Q1 2026 and were almost three times higher than Q2 last year. But this was off a record low base, with quarterly starts just 13 per cent
    of the figure needed to meet the all tenure housing target of 22,000 homes. Private sales in Q2 reached almost 2,800, up 8 per cent on the previous eight-quarter average. But fewer than a third of sales were to individuals, with domestic buyers accounting
    for fewer than 600 sales last quarter. More than 4,600 homes were complete but unsold, the highest Molior London has ever recorded, meaning continued caution around new development is expected in H2 unless we see a significant uptick in take up.</p>
<h2>UK Living</h2>
<p>Investment in the UK Living sector hit &pound;6.5 billion in H1&mdash;a respectable showing that masked significant quarterly variation. Q1's momentum moderated as Q2 volumes dropped by half, signalling investor caution as the year progressed.</p>
<p>Build-to-rent emerged as the standout performer, posting its second strongest half-year performance on record. The sector's success hinged almost entirely on Morgan Stanley and Ridgeback&rsquo;s &pound;1 billion+ acquisition of Metra Living. Strip out
    this deal, and BTR's underlying activity tells a more measured story. The sector also witnessed a notable structural shift: multifamily assets now command 85 per cent of investment, last year it was broadly 50/50 multifamily to single. Perhaps most
    striking, forward investment has declined to record lows, suggesting developers are pulling back on speculative commitments whilst investors prefer seasoned, income-producing stock.</p>
<p>Student accommodation proved more volatile quarter-to-quarter. A strong Q1, buoyed by Unite&rsquo;s purchase of Empiric Student Property, gave way to a considerably quieter second quarter&mdash; as transaction volumes fell to their lowest level in a decade.</p>
<p>Healthcare provided the steadiest hand, returning to normalised deal flow after a record Q4 2025. Transaction sizes have reverted to more typical levels, though the sector enters H2 with renewed optimism following Blue Owl's entry into the market&mdash;a
    signal that North American capital continues eyeing UK healthcare as demographic tailwinds strengthen.</p>
<p>Looking ahead, H2's trajectory depends on whether institutional buyers accelerate deployment or maintain Q2's more cautious stance.</p>

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/>
<h2>Northern markets lead the pack</h2>
<p>Rents rose 3.3 per cent in the 12 months to June, according to the latest figures from the ONS. Rental growth outpaced house prices, which rose 2.7 per cent in the latest monthly figures. Comparing government figures shows that only one month (April 2026)
    since the start of 2023 have house prices outperformed rents.</p>
<p>The strongest performing region for both rental and house price growth was the North East, with prices rising 5.9 per cent and rents 6.3 per cent in the latest monthly data. Zoopla data shows the North East was the only region that saw an increase in
    sales agreed in July, with 4 per cent more homes going under offer. Nationally volumes fell 9 per cent.</p>
<p style="font-size:15px;">JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare
    and student housing.</p>
<p><sup>Disclaimer: &copy; 2026 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property</sup></p>

The Residential Roundup

residential-roundup-manchester-2

This month’s meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee resulted in the fifth consecutive hold decision. The committee voted six to three to keep the Bank Rate at 3.75 per cent.

This month&rsquo;s meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee resulted in the fifth consecutive hold decision. The committee voted six to three to keep the Bank Rate at 3.75 per cent.

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JLL PCL Report - Q2 2026

The JLL Q2 2026 Prime Central London Report tracks activity across the central London housing market. The report incorporates the results of our quarterly JLL Prime Central London Index.

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<p>London's rental market has entered a period of adjustment in Q2 2026, as new legislation reshapes landlord strategies across the capital. The JLL Rental Index tracks average rents and agent sentiment within London, across the following JLL office patches:
    Finsbury Park, Wood Green, Nine Elms, City, Canary Wharf, Greenwich, Stratford and Kew.</p>
<p>This quarter tells a story of market adaptation. The Renters' Rights Act has prompted landlords to withdraw properties from rental stock, hoping to pivot toward the sales market. However, a weaker sales market means many have been forced to return to
    the rental market under more challenging conditions as they struggle to sell.</p>
<p>Despite turbulence in the sector, average rents across JLL offices rose 1% over the quarter, recovering from a quarterly decline of 0.4% in Q1. &nbsp;</p>
<p>Meanwhile, average annual growth accelerated to 2.3% in Q2, up from 2% last quarter. Greenwich leads at 6.4%, achieving its highest annual increase since Q2 2024.</p>
<p>According to Dataloft, available stock to rent in London has expanded dramatically to 165,275 properties in June 2026, representing a 72% surge from the same period the previous year. Yet demand fundamentals remain robust, supported by return-to-office
    momentum and a weaker sales market as those who may have thought about buying over the past year put decisions on hold due to higher mortgage rates.</p>
<h2>Greenwich Dominates Q2 Performance with Strongest Quarterly and Annual Growth</h2>
<p>Quarterly rental growth across JLL offices strengthened in Q2 2026, with average growth reaching 1%. Greenwich emerged as the top performer with rents rising 2.9% over the quarter. Within Greenwich, the Blackheath sub-office posted the highest gain at
    7.6%.
</p>
<p>The City followed with 2.7% quarterly growth, driven by its EC1 sub-office which showed a notable 4.8% jump this quarter as activity picked up for the usual summer season. Canary Wharf was the only declining market, while Kew remained flat and Wood Green
    showed minimal movement (+0.4%). Other offices reported moderate growth as the Renters' Rights Act continues to drive private landlord exits, with institutional Build-to-Rent operators gaining market share as this transition unfolds.</p>
<p>Comparing current market performance with Q2 2023 reveals we&rsquo;re in a softer growth environment now. Three years ago, the Help to Buy policy had ended for all completions and the Building Safety Act (Gateway 2 and 3) was introduced for high-risk
    buildings over 18m tall. Back then, average quarterly rental growth across all offices stood at 2.3%, notably higher than this quarter's 1% average. All offices reported quarterly growth ranging between 1.4% and 3.7% in Q2 2023, compared to this quarter's
    -2.1% to 2.9% range, highlighting the moderating effect of current regulatory pressures on rental growth momentum.</p>

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<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Annual growth shows all offices reporting positive performance, with Greenwich recording the highest at 6.4%, its strongest increase since Q2 2024, when it reached 7.5%. The City followed with 3.6%, showing notable improvement after three quarters hovering
    around 1% annual growth. Finsbury Park and Canary Wharf remained below 1% growth. Remaining offices showed gains between 1.8% and 2.7%. Beyond legislative pressures, these varying performances reflect what each area offers through supply, local amenities
    and transport links that shape tenant demand across different locations year-on-year.</p>
<h2>Long-Term Growth Continues Upward Trajectory with Nine Elms Leading this quarter</h2>
<p>Five-year rental growth across JLL offices remain strong at 43.5% in Q2 2026, higher than last quarter average of 41.9</p>

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<div style="overflow-x:auto;">
    <table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="1">
        <tbody>
            

            <tr>
                <td><strong>Offices</strong></td>
                <td><strong>5 year Growth</strong></td>
            </tr>
            <tr>
                <td>Nine Elms</td>
                <td>54.6%</td>
            </tr>
            <tr>
                <td>City</td>
                <td>51.0%</td>
            </tr>
            <tr>
                <td>Canary Wharf</td>
                <td>50.3%</td>
            </tr>
            <tr>
                <td>Greenwich</td>
                <td>46.9%</td>
            </tr>
            <tr>
                <td>Wood Green</td>
                <td>43.4%</td>
            </tr>
            <tr>
                <td>Finsbury Park</td>
                <td>38.7%</td>
            </tr>
            <tr>
                <td>Kew</td>
                <td>31.7%</td>
            </tr>
            <tr>
                <td>Stratford</td>
                <td>31.4%</td>
            </tr>
        </tbody>
    </table>
</div>
<p><sup>Source: JLL Research, 2026</sup></p>
<p>Nine Elms leads five-year growth at 54.6% growth this quarter, maintaining its momentum over the last eleven quarters followed by City and Canary Wharf. The Bank of England held the Bank Rate at 3.75% in June, higher than pre-2021 levels. More first-time
    buyers and home movers are delaying purchases, while relying on renting, driving sustained demand and upward rental pressure across London's markets.</p>
<h2>Market Sentiments Point to Easing Applicant Numbers and Rising Landlord Engagement</h2><iframe src="https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/29623718/embed" title="Interactive or visual content" class="flourish-embed-iframe" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="width:100%;height:368px;" sandbox="allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation"></iframe>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>The rental market is telling a nuanced story across four key indicators, with the Renters&rsquo; Rights Act reshaping traditional patterns. Landlord instructions have notably increased across seven offices over the last quarter. This surge in stock on
    the market is likely to contain rental growth to moderate levels over the summer as tenants have greater choice. Days on market have extended across five offices in Q2 as new tenants take time to weigh options before committing.</p>
<p>New applicant registrations show easing momentum, with six of eight offices reporting a decrease over the last three months. Renewals have also increased, with seven offices reporting growth over the quarter as existing tenants priorities stability. Despite
    short‑term market adjustments around the Renter&rsquo;s Rights Act, summer activity is beginning to pick up in line with traditional seasonal patterns, indicating early signs of recalibration as the market adapts to the new regulatory landscape.</p>

London Rental Market Q2 2026: Regulatory Pressures Reshape Landscape

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<p>A national affordable housing programme appears to be near the top of the agenda, run from No.10 North, but key details on the direction of travel of a Burnham government, and an idea on who&rsquo;ll be taking the top jobs remain a closely guarded secret.
    We&rsquo;ll need to wait to hear more on that, but as mayor of Greater Manchester his track record on housing leaves some reasons to be cheerful. So, can &lsquo;Manchesterism&rsquo; translate on the national stage?</p>
<h2>What Would a Burnham Housing Agenda Look Like?</h2>
<p>His proposed national affordable housing programme, potentially run from a northern power base, suggests a decisive shift towards social housing expansion&mdash;a marked departure from recent governments' market-led approach. Even if (well-placed) scepticism
    reigns on how this would be funded.</p>
<div style="max-width:1200px;margin:24px auto;"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1783318977/resi/gb/cms/News/Images/Residential_Roundup_-_July-inline1.svg" alt="Greater Manchester housing delivery doubles since 2017" style="width:100%;height:auto;" /></div>
<p>Burnham's previous comments about bond markets have raised eyebrows, and his choice of Chancellor will prove crucial: a left-leaning appointment like Ed Miliband might unsettle markets already jittery about fiscal policy, potentially pushing mortgage
    rates higher and dampening buyer demand. A more centrist pick could ease concerns but would signal policy constraints that might limit his affordable housing ambitions.</p>
<h2>The Manchester Track Record</h2>
<p>On Burnham's watch, Greater Manchester has delivered one in every 21 new homes built across England since 2017&mdash;up from one in 32 in the eight years prior.</p>
<p>Since Burnham's first mayoral victory in May 2017&mdash;he's won twice more since&mdash;Greater Manchester has averaged nearly 10,900 net additions annually. This equates to 79 per cent of its current housing need target, outstripping England's 62 per
    cent average. Between 2017 and 2025, housing delivery across Greater Manchester surged 116 per cent compared to the preceding eight years, dwarfing the increase nationally of 42 per cent over the same period.</p>
<p>In the eight years since April 2017 Greater Manchester recorded almost 87,000 net additions, more than double the 40,000 in the preceding eight years. Delivery increased across England too, although the move from 1.2 to 1.8 million net additions was more
    modest. If England had matched Greater Manchester's 116 per cent growth rate in housing delivery since 2017, we would have added, on average, an additional 120,000 homes per annum, bringing annual net additions to 350,000&mdash;just 20,000 shy of
    the government's 370,000 target.</p>
<p>Of course this wasn&rsquo;t solely attributable to Burnham, with critics arguing he was in the right place at the right time to capitalise on the momentum which was clearly building. Wherever the truth lies, the results show Greater Manchester has seen
    higher economic growth and elevated housing delivery under Burnham&rsquo;s tenure. Gross value added (GVA) across the metropolitan area&mdash;essentially the value of goods and services produced&mdash;shows Greater Manchester has experienced a 37
    per cent rise since 2017, outpacing growth nationally of 10 per cent over the same period. Applying Manchester growth rate to national GVA implies a further &pound;617 billion of additional GVA could have been created if the UK had followed a similar
    path to Greater Manchester&rsquo;s.</p>
<div style="max-width:1200px;margin:24px auto;"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1783318977/resi/gb/cms/News/Images/Residential_Roundup_-_July-inline2.svg" alt="market momentum sees more affordable  homes delivered" style="width:100%;height:auto;" /></div>
<p>Again, we need to be careful labelling this as the &lsquo;Burnham effect&rsquo;, with Greater Manchester GVA also outperforming the UK average prior to Burnham&rsquo;s tenure. But the continued growth and ambition across the city have been palpable in
    the last decade.
</p>
<h2>Affordable housing</h2>
<p>With Burnham pledging to build more social homes, his record on affordable housing will come under increased scrutiny. Delivery of high rise residential in the centre of Manchester and Salford has focussed on private sale or build-to-rent rather than
    affordable, a deliberate plan to bring younger professionals into the city core. But across Greater Manchester affordable housing delivery has totalled almost 17,000 homes between 2017 and 2025, around 19 per cent of total delivery. This lags the
    25 per cent achieved nationally over the same period. But a higher percentage of a smaller number doesn&rsquo;t mean more homes. Growth in affordable housing delivery still outperforms, with the eight years post the first Mayoral election in 2017
    seeing 28 per cent more affordable homes delivered across Greater Manchester than in the previous eight, while nationally numbers rose 16 per cent over the same period.</p>
<h2>The Scale-Up Question</h2>
<p>It looks likely we&rsquo;ll soon discover whether &lsquo;Manchesterism&rsquo; represents a genuine blueprint for national housing delivery. Of course, local success doesn't automatically translate nationally, and a mayoral authority of 3 million people
    differs from governing more than 60 million across vastly diverse communities. Burnham's challenge will be replicating success whilst navigating parliamentary politics, Treasury constraints, and regional interests far removed from Manchester's urban
    development dynamics.</p>
<p>The residential sector faces genuine uncertainty. Bond market jitters and mortgage rate sensitivity could offset policy improvements. Planning reform that works in theory often stalls in practice and affordable housing programmes require sustained funding
    commitments that cross electoral cycles. Industry capacity itself poses limits, construction sector labour shortages, supply chain constraints, and planning department under-resourcing won't disappear with political will alone. Scaling Manchester's
    116 per cent growth to national level demands infrastructure, skills, and institutional capacity alongside policy change.</p>
<p style="font-size:14px;">JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare
    and student housing.</p>
<p style="font-size:12px;">Disclaimer: &copy; 2026 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as
    to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any
    means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right
    to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property</p>

Following Starmer’s resignation the clock is ticking, and if Andy Burnham remains uncontested, he could be in No.10 (either in SW1 or M1) in a matter of weeks.

<strong>Following Starmer&rsquo;s resignation the clock is ticking, and if Andy Burnham remains uncontested, he could be in No.10 (either in SW1 or M1) in a matter of weeks.</strong>

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<p>London's economic success has always relied on its ability to attract and retain talent. But a structural crisis in the housing market is quietly eroding that foundation, pricing out the very workforce that keeps the city running.</p><h2>The scale of the problem</h2><p>The numbers paint a stark picture. Since 2015, London rents have grown at approximately three times the rate of entry-level salaries. Today, 90% of young professionals aged 22&ndash;39 cannot afford to rent a home alone in the capital.</p><p>This isn't simply about individual hardship. One in three London businesses now report housing costs as a significant barrier to recruiting junior staff, with growing numbers relocating functions out of the capital as a direct result.</p><h2>A shrinking market serving fewer people</h2><p>The private rental sector is contracting precisely when demand is surging. Government figures show the number of private rented homes in London fell 6% in the latest annual data, driven by regulatory changes and sustained landlord exits from the market.</p><p>Meanwhile, the limited new supply being delivered targets higher-earning professionals to remain financially viable. Build-to-Rent studios and co-living units in Zones 2-3 command rents between &pound;1,500 and &pound;2,800 per month&mdash;pricing out
    half a million single renters who cannot access even the cheapest purpose-built rental homes.</p><p>The result is a clearly defined market failure: a 'missing middle' of young Londoners earning too much to qualify for social housing, yet too little to afford much of London's private rental stock within reasonable reach of work.</p><h2>Three solutions to unlock affordable supply</h2><p>The crisis is structural and will not be solved by existing market forces alone. JLL has identified three policy levers that, taken together, can unlock genuinely affordable rental supply for the squeezed middle:</p><h3>1. Site viability reform</h3><p>Development appraisals are under severe strain. While emergency measures have reduced affordable housing requirements from 35% to 20%, many sites still won't be deliverable. A more constructive conversation about permanently reducing these thresholds
    is needed, acknowledging that the challenge is delivering any homes at all.</p><h3>2. Professionalising the HMO sector</h3><p>For many young Londoners, renting a room in a House in Multiple Occupation remains the most accessible route into the private rental market. Yet HMO numbers are falling due to licensing requirements, compliance costs and the general landlord exodus.</p><p>Policy reform is needed to encourage professionally managed, purpose-built HMO stock at scale. Tax reform, a single national licence for accredited operators, and a distinct planning use class would streamline compliance and encourage institutional investment.</p><h3>3. Compact studio models</h3><p>Current space standards, while well-intentioned, are partly responsible for the affordability crisis we now face. A compact urban studio of 18&ndash;22sqm&mdash;with a bed, kitchenette, en-suite shower room and access to communal kitchen space, without
    expensive amenities&mdash;could be delivered at price points genuinely accessible to most young professionals and key workers.</p><p>International precedent from Tokyo, Amsterdam and New York demonstrates that space-standard flexibility can work within major urban planning frameworks without compromising quality.</p><h2>An opportunity for investors</h2><p>For investors, these solutions represent a compelling opportunity to broaden portfolios beyond current premium products. Mass-market rental homes built for the squeezed middle would carry structurally high demand, low void risk and durable income streams.</p><p>The model offers a route for private capital to deliver something that is both commercially rational and socially responsible&mdash;at a moment when the city most needs it.</p><h2>The path forward</h2><p>Addressing London's rental crisis requires alignment across planners, employers and investors. By focusing on the fundamentals&mdash;viability, supply, and homes sized to genuine affordability&mdash;we can begin to close the gap for London's missing middle
    and secure the city's future as a vibrant, accessible hub for global talent.</p><p><strong>Download the full report:</strong> <a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1783315064/resi/gb/cms/News/PDFs/The_Missing_Middle.pdf">[link]</a></p><p><strong>For expert advice on residential investment opportunities, <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/#contact-us">contact our team.</a></strong></p>

London's Missing Middle: How the rental crisis is undermining the capital's competitiveness

90% of young professionals can't afford to rent alone in London. Discover JLL's three policy solutions to unlock affordable rental supply for the missing middle.

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<p><strong>UKREiiF reflections: Morgan Skillen shares her thoughts on sector challenges and opportunities from a Next Generation perspective</strong></p>
<p><em>Morgan Skillen, Surveyor - Housing Consultancy at JLL</em></p>
<p>This year marked my first time attending UKREiiF &ndash; The UK&rsquo;s Real Estate Investment and Infrastructure Forum, a multi-day conference that&rsquo;s essentially the Glastonbury of the real estate world. All the big names were lined up to headline
    and everyone and their neighbour was attending.</p>
<p>Heading up to Leeds last week, I was a little apprehensive as to what the event would be like. In a male-dominated industry with only 20% of RICS members being female and the number dropping significantly further as you move to RICS fellow level, I considered
    whether there would be many &ldquo;only woman in the room&rdquo; moments. However, I was pleasantly surprised by the diversity across the panels I attended and the wider delegate base. That said, upon arrival, there was still a sea of navy suits and
    gilets along Armouries Way! <strong></strong></p>
<h2>A market under pressure</h2>
<p>One key takeaway from UKREiiF is that the real estate market is facing pressure from all angles - no surprise there, right? The challenges across each sector were widely discussed, with common themes emerging around viability constraints, lack of funding,
    and the need for private-public partnerships.</p>
<p>As a surveyor, specialising in Affordable Housing, I&rsquo;ve always taken a keen interest in the living sector, which is why I found Bevan Brittan&rsquo;s breakfast event on<em> &lsquo;The Future of the Living Sector&rsquo; </em>incredibly thought-provoking.</p>
<p>It moved beyond the current macroeconomic environment we are all very well versed in and focused on the operational challenges arising from the Renters Reform Act 2026. &nbsp;Discussions also explored whether we are shifting to a predominantly renting
    society and how viability challenges are in turn, putting an affordability strain on the middle-market homeowners and renters.&nbsp; These themes were echoed across the conference, along with discussion on how to overcome the wider challenges faced
    by the housing market. </p>
<p>One of the primary discussion points was investment and funding. At a panel on &lsquo;<em>Unlocking affordable homes to power growth in the south west&rsquo;</em>, Selina White, CEO of Manna Housing, shared a compelling statistic for further investment
    into affordable housing: &ldquo;For every &pound;1 invested in affordable housing, c.&pound;3 is generated for the local economy.&rdquo; This is driven by the construction phase but continues as new residents bring more local spending into the economy.
    Interest in entering the affordable housing market has increased, with more investors looking at the market. However, patient capital willing to take a long-term view is essential to help with the delivery of more affordable homes.</p>
<p>The collective view from UKREiiF was clear: investment and public-private partnerships are not just beneficial but essential to addressing the housing crisis but these are not without challenges. However, most affordable homes will still likely be delivered
    by not-for-profit Registered Providers via direct delivery/Section 106. In the midst of all the discussions on the challenges facing the market, there was an air of positivity noting that the residential market is resilient and people are optimistic
    that there are routes forward to be found. </p>
<h2>A Next Generation perspective</h2>
<p>I was invited to attend UKREiiF, as part of the Next Generation contingent. This is targeted at young professionals early in their real estate careers. I am 26 years old, and have been with JLL for almost 4 years, starting out on their graduate scheme,
    before becoming a permanent member of the Affordable Housing Consultancy team.</p>
<p>As referenced above, this was my first large-scale conference, and I was slightly unsure what to expect. Attending an event with many senior and influential people, is a little daunting to say the least. In the build-up to the event, I started to get
    that &ldquo;first day of school&rdquo; feeling and was hoping that the big kids would be nice to me! What I experienced was the best outcome that could be hoped for; there was no difference in treatment between me, a young, female, first-time conference
    attendee, and more senior people in the sector. I was actively involved in conversations, my questions in seminars were engaged with and my thoughts were heard.</p>
<p>During UKREiiF, I had a few insightful conversations with several senior people, two common threads emerged in their careers: confidence and sponsorship &ndash; the impact of having a senior person believe in them, encourage them to seize opportunities,
    and on occasion, actively create opportunities for them. </p>
<p>This is something I've benefited from personally at JLL, and I am committed to paying it forward. I hope to see more of this across the industry, particularly from senior leaders supporting up-and-coming professionals in their company and sectors.</p>
<p>My key takeaways from UKREiiF on a personal level, which I will carry with me into future conferences and advice I will share with other first-time conferences goers is, to absorb the atmosphere, learning everything you can but also to back yourself.
    Have the confidence to ask the questions, engage in conversations and share your thoughts when you have a perspective.</p>
<p><strong>&nbsp;</strong></p>

UKREiiF reflections: Morgan Skillen

PCL big ben

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Fixing London’s New Homes Market

Our Q2 2026 London New Homes Report is here. Download now for the latest market intelligence and expert insights on London's housing sector.

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<p><strong>The JLL Rental Index reports average rents and agent sentiment within London, across the following JLL office patches: Finsbury Park, Wood Green, Nine Elms, City, Canary Wharf, Greenwich, Stratford and Kew.</strong></p><h3>Market summary - Q1 2026</h3><ul><li><strong>Average rents across JLL&rsquo;s eight London offices rose 2% annually in Q1 2026.</strong></li><li><strong>Greenwich and Canary Wharf recorded the highest annual rental growth in Q1, at 4%.</strong></li><li><strong>All offices have reported an increase in lease renewals in the first three months of the year. The City is the only office patch which has reported no change in lease renewals over a 12-month period.</strong></li></ul>
<p><strong>&nbsp;</strong></p><p>Rising levels of supply and softening tenant demand have defined the London lettings market over the past twelve months. In turn, landlords have found themselves in a more competitive environment, putting downward pressure on rental growth across the
    capital. </p><p>Average rents across JLL's London offices rose by 2% annually in Q1 2026, with Greenwich and Canary Wharf outperforming, recording growth of 3.7% and 3.8% respectively.</p><p>We have seen a clear shift in tenant behaviour over the past two years; properties are taking longer to let, and renewal rates have risen as tenants choose to stay put rather than move, in order to avoid higher rents. Meanwhile, we expect some landlords
    to exit the rental market in the coming months prompted by the Renters&rsquo; Rights Act and higher taxation. However, we do anticipate the traditional spring and summer uptick in home mover activity to provide some opportunity for rental growth in
    the coming months. </p><p>In markets such as Finsbury Park, higher levels of supply have limited rental growth over the past year, while strong demand across The City and Canary Wharf have kept rents stable &ndash; a trend we expect to continue over the next two quarters as we
    see students and graduates securing homes for the 2026/27 academic year.</p><iframe src="https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/29067356/embed" title="Interactive or visual content" class="flourish-embed-iframe" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="width:100%;height:600px;" sandbox="allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation"></iframe><br /><h2>&nbsp;</h2><h2>Annual rental growth: Canary Wharf and Greenwich are top performers<strong><br /></strong></h2><p>Canary Wharf and Greenwich were top performers among JLL offices in Q1 2026. Average rents rose 1.9% and 2.7% over the quarter in Canary Wharf and Greenwich respectively, bringing annual growth to 4% across both markets. Strong demand fundamentals and
    good connectivity have underpinned rents in these areas.</p><p>However, properties rented in Canary Wharf in the last month have been on the market for an average of 38 days, which is 90.7% longer than a year ago. Despite the Elizabeth Line's transformative impact on connectivity and ongoing infrastructure improvements
    unlocking the area's potential, the extended marketing period reflects the broader softening in tenant demand affecting even well-connected locations this quarter. </p><p>Wood Green, Nine Elms and Stratford recorded modest annual growth between 2% - 3%, while the City&rsquo;s annual growth held steady at 1.1%. Within Nine Elms, mainstream locations maintained positive annual growth while prime areas saw average rents decline
    over the year, driven by fewer home movers and occupiers choosing to renew leases.</p><p>Finsbury Park shifted from positive annual growth of 1.8% in Q4 2025 to a contraction of 0.2% in Q1 2026, while Kew saw growth slow sharply from 2.2% to just 0.3% over the same period. More muted growth in these areas is a reflection of fewer new applicant
    registrations and increased days on market, both signaling weaker tenant demand and reduced pricing power for landlords in this location.</p><iframe src="https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/29082834/embed" title="Interactive or visual content" class="flourish-embed-iframe" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="width:100%;height:600px;" sandbox="allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation"></iframe><br /><h2>&nbsp;</h2><h2>3-Year Growth: Across all London locations, rents rose 11.8% over three years</h2><p>Rental trends across London over the past three and five years reveal a clear pattern &mdash;the market has been climbing steadily, but growth is now becoming more measured.</p><p>Three-year growth remains strong in most locations, ranging between 8%-17%, however increased level of supply has softened this growth in recent quarters. Wood Green led with the highest growth at 16.7%, followed by Greenwich at 16.0%, supported by consistent
    tenant demand. Other locations ranged from 9.6% to 13.3%, reflecting more balanced dynamics after the post-pandemic surge.</p><h2>5-Year Growth: Nine Elms and Canary Wharf Achieved Highest Growth<br /></h2><h2></h2><p>On average, rents have risen by 42% over the past five years, across all eight JLL London offices. Growth has ranged between 31% and 56%.</p><p>Nine Elms has been the strongest performer over the past five years, seeing 55.6% growth in rents. This has been driven by strong long-term demand in prime riverside areas. Within Nine Elms, SW11 Prime rental property saw rental growth shy of 70% over
    a five-year period. </p><p>Canary Wharf follows with 53.1% growth. Prime rental homes across Canary Wharf have benefitted from corporate tenant demand and proximity to financial services hubs, while the mainstream market benefits from strong student demand.</p><p>Significant five-year growth across London has been driven by a fundamental supply and demand imbalance&mdash;but here's what's changing: the pace is now easing as new supply enters the market and affordability constraints begin to limit rental increases.</p><h2>Market Sentiment: Momentum Remains Subdued as We Begin 2026<br /></h2><p>The number of new applicants registering over the last 12 months has decreased across most locations including Canary Wharf, Finsbury Park, Kew, Nine Elms, and Stratford, while remaining stable in the City, Greenwich and Wood Green. </p><p>The number of new landlord instructions over the last 12 months has increased in four locations including Canary Wharf, City, Greenwich, Kew, and Wood Green, remained stable in Nine Elms, and decreased in Finsbury Park and Stratford. This divergence between
    declining tenant demand and growing landlord supply suggests a shift towards a tenant-favourable market, creating increased competition among landlords and putting downward pressure on rental growth.</p><p>All locations reported increases in lease renewals over the past year except the City, a reasonable response to a more challenging economic environment where tenants look to avoid higher rents associated with moving property. Days on the market before
    finding a tenant have increased over the last 12 months in five locations including Canary Wharf, Finsbury Park, Greenwich, Stratford, and Wood Green and remained stable in others. </p>

JLL Rental Index – Q1 2026

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<p><strong>We had expected 2026 to usher in a new phase of the housing cycle, with higher price growth in more affordable markets in recent years giving way to stronger performance in more expensive southern regions as mortgage rates improved in the second half of the year. Early-year expectations included two further base rate cuts, and by early February best-buy mortgage rates had reached 3.5%. The delay between listing and exchange&mdash;currently averaging 200 days&mdash;would mean improvements would take time to feed through to house price indices, but we were confident that prices would rise across most UK markets this year.</strong></p>
<p>That changed at the end of February, with the impact of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East having a significant impact on sentiment, debt costs and the outlook for many global economies, including the UK. Forecasters have downgraded their UK GDP
    projections accordingly, with the IMF now expecting growth of 0.8% this year compared to their previous forecast of 1.3%.</p>
<p>While swap rates&mdash;used as a proxy to set fixed-rate mortgages&mdash;have settled somewhat and more competitive rates have entered the market, we now think it unlikely that we will see the lower rates and improvements in market sentiment we'll need
    to support our November view on prices and rents this year.</p>
<h2>House price forecast</h2>
<p>We now expect house prices to remain broadly flat nationally in 2026, with prices forecast to end the year down 0.5%, compared with our previous +2% forecast.</p>
<p>Some more affordable markets should end the year in positive territory, but we expect growth will be lower than inflation across all UK regions this year.</p>
<p>London, where prices have fallen by an average of 3.3% in the year to February according to the Office for National Statistics, is now forecast to end the year down 2.5%, against our previous forecast of +1%. For central London is it sentiment rather
    than rates which will likely have a greater impact.</p>
<p>Our JLL Prime Central London Index (based on agent valuations and excluding new homes) saw values fall 2.2% in Q1 compared with Q4 with prices down 8.7% year on year in March. Similarly, transaction-based indices from LonRes are showing prices in the
    three months to April 2026 9.1% lower than the same period in 2025.</p>
<p>Our previous forecasts expected prices in central London would begin to recover in the latter part of the year, with values forecast to end the year flat (effectively H1 falls being cancelled out by H2 gains). However, we now expect that the improvements
    in market conditions needed to support growth in prices (remember we'd need to see growth of 2.2% for our PCL Index to end the year flat) are unlikely to materialise this year. We are therefore forecasting prices will fall 5.5% in 2026.</p>
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    <h2>Rental forecast</h2>
    <p>With fewer tenants expected to move into owner-occupation and inflation now forecast to end the year higher, we have upgraded our 2026 forecast, with rents now expected to rise 3.5% nationally, up from the 2.5% forecast in November. We anticipate
        higher rental growth in London too, with rents forecast to increase 3% this year.</p>
    <p>Challenges around rental affordability will likely constrain the prospects for more significant rental growth over the five-year period. Over the longer term, we continue to expect pressure on landlords to comply with EPC C standards by 2030 will
        fuel rental growth towards the latter part of our five-year forecast period, as properties are removed from the market either for sale or improvement.</p><iframe src="https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/29071331/embed" title="Interactive or visual content" class="flourish-embed-iframe" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="width:100%;height:600px;" sandbox="allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation"></iframe>
    <p>Rental growth in the five years to 2030 is now expected to total 16.5% nationally and 17.1% in London, a one to two percentage point increase compared with our previous forecast.</p>
    <h2>JLL's Residential and Living team</h2>
    <p>JLL's Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare
        and student housing.</p><br />
    <p><sup>Disclaimer: &copy; 2026 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as
    to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any
    means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right
    to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property</sup></p>

Residential Forecasts 2026-2030

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<p><strong>The Monetary Policy Committee voted at eight votes to one to hold rates at 3.75 per cent on 30 April. This follows a similar hold stance from the Fed and the ECB this week. The Bank acknowledged that the energy price shock and continued geo-political uncertainty will mean energy prices and inflation will remain higher than they expected a few months back. But the decision to move rates essentially hinged on which of three scenarios the committee thought most likely over the next two years.</strong></p>
<p>In Scenario A inflation rises to 3.6 per cent by the end of 2026, wages rise a little but fall back to 3 per cent by late 2027 as labour market conditions weaken. As a result, second round effects &ndash; essentially higher inflation meaning workers ask
    employers for (and get) more significant wage increases &ndash; are reduced, as a weaker jobs market limits the need to increase wages. </p>
<p>In Scenario B inflation follows a similar path, second round effects are still modest, but wage growth is more persistent, hitting 3.5 per cent in Q1 2027, declining gradually over the year. In Scenario C inflation peaks at more than 6 per cent in Q1
    2027. This triggers more significant second round effect, with wages rising and inflation remaining elevated. Following the MPC meeting most members appeared to be leaning towards Scenario B.</p>
<p>But there was some positive news for borrowers as even pre-MPC several larger lenders reduced their fixed rate deals as swap rates (the benchmark lenders use to price fixed-rate mortgages) stabilised after a volatile few months. Barclays re-introducing
    a sub-4 per cent two-year fix for the first time since March (albeit only for their Premier customers) with HSBC and NatWest also announcing lower rates from 30 April.</p><iframe src="https://flo.uri.sh/story/3684258/embed" title="Interactive or visual content" class="flourish-embed-iframe" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="width:100%;height:600px;" sandbox="allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation"></iframe>
<h2>&nbsp;</h2>
<h2>Renters&rsquo; Rights</h2>
<p>The first phase of the Renters&rsquo; Rights Act came into force on 1 May. Landlords who already have a written tenancy agreement in place do not need to change it or issue a new one. Instead, they will be required to provide tenants with a copy of the
    government &lsquo;Information Sheet&rsquo; on or before 31 May 2026 <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-renters-rights-act-information-sheet-2026#full-publication-update-history" target="_blank">Click here to access the Renters' Rights Act Information Sheet.</a>    For new tenants landlords will need to provide a written tenancy agreement from 1 May.</p>
<p><strong>Changes introduced on 1 May include:</strong></p>
<p>Assured Periodic Tenancies introduced&ndash; Section 21 no fault evictions are now abolished, and most new and existing tenancies becoming Assured Periodic Tenancies. Tenants will be able to stay in their property for as long as they want, or until a
    landlord serves a valid section 8 notice. Tenants can end their tenancy by giving two months&rsquo; notice. Landlords retain access to specific grounds for possession when they have legitimate reasons to reclaim their property. These include persistent
    rent arrears, anti-social behaviour, or a genuine need to sell or move back in. Rent increases &ndash; limited to one a year, with landlords being required to follow a revised section 13 procedure. Notice of rent increases must be given at least two
    months before it is due to take effect. All rent increases can be challenged by tenants at the Property Tribunal. Rent in advance and bids &ndash; Properties must be advertised at a specific asking rent and offers above this amount cannot legally
    be accepted. Landlords or their agents can no longer request more than one month&rsquo;s rent in advance. Pet policies - Tenants have strengthened rights to request pets, which must be considered within 28 days. Landlords must provide a valid reason
    to refuse. Anti-discrimination policies &ndash; It is now illegal to discriminate against tenants with children or those receiving benefits. Landlords and letting agents cannot take any action to discourage or prevent these groups from renting, including
    hiding property information, refusing viewings, or denying tenancies based on having children or receiving benefits.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p><iframe src="https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/28989951/embed" title="Interactive or visual content" class="flourish-embed-iframe" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="width:100%;height:600px;" sandbox="allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation"></iframe>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>If you have any questions or would like to discuss the implications of the Renters&rsquo; Rights Act as a tenant or landlord, please <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/#contact-us">contact us.</a></p>
<h2><br />Prime Central London</h2>
<p>Prime Central London sales hit their lowest Q1 level since 2020 last quarter, with volumes down 24 per cent year-on-year as global uncertainty dampened buyer confidence. The JLL PCL index shows prices fell 2.2 per cent quarterly and 8.7 per cent annually,
    with properties under &pound;2 million hit hardest &ndash; down 9.8 per cent year-on-year as mortgage-reliant buyers feel the pinch of higher borrowing costs.</p>
<p>The rental market proved more resilient, with lettings up 13 per cent year-on-year as cautious buyers adopt a 'wait and see' approach. Increased stock levels &ndash; up 29 per cent &ndash; have kept rental growth flat, but the gap between asking and achieved
    rents for premium properties narrowed, suggesting competitive conditions at the top end.</p>
<p>Five sales over &pound;50 million this year alone (versus one in all of 2025) show the ultra-prime segment remains active. Higher stock levels across sales and lettings will likely moderate prices near-term, though strong letting activity suggests PCL's
    fundamental appeal endures. <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/insights/research/jll-pcl-report-q1-2026">Click here</a> to read our latest Q1 PCL report.</p><iframe src="https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/28990096/embed" title="Interactive or visual content" class="flourish-embed-iframe" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="width:100%;height:600px;" sandbox="allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation"></iframe>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2>Student housing leads with record Q1</h2>
<p>Student housing investment topped &pound;2.2bn in Q1 &ndash; the fifth-highest quarterly total on record and a rare bright spot in an otherwise subdued start to the year for UK Living. Close to a third came from Unite's acquisition of Empiric Student
    Property, which completed in January. Student accounted for 60 per cent of the &pound;3.7bn invested in UK Living in Q1 2026, significantly above the typical 35 per cent.</p>
<p>Build to Rent (BTR) had a quieter quarter, though the sale of Ebb &amp; Flow in Reading became the UK's largest ever operational asset transaction. Pension Insurance Corporation paid &pound;200m for the 598-bed scheme &ndash; surpassing Greystar's Barking
    Wharf purchase as the biggest single asset deal on record.</p>
<p>However, it was the only major multifamily transaction, pushing total BTR volumes to &pound;736m &ndash; the lowest Q1 figure since 2017. Multifamily investment fell to &pound;257m, though single family performed better at &pound;479m, boosted by Kennedy
    Wilson and Canada Pension Plan Investment Board's &pound;300m expansion. Click the link to read more in our latest <a href="https://www.jll.com/en-uk/insights/uk-living-roundup-series">UK Living Roundup April 2026.</a></p>
<p>JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare
    and student housing. </p>
<p><sup>Disclaimer: &copy; 2026 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property</sup></p>

The Residential Roundup - 1 May

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JLL PCL Report - Q1 2026

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<p><strong>Welcome news of a two-week ceasefire in the Middle East has seen markets react favourably. Brent crude prices dropped to below $100 a barrel and shares in several UK and US property REITs have rallied. The outlook for the Bank Rate has also shifted, with markets now expecting a more cautious approach to rate hikes from the Bank of England this year. Forecasters, who had been predicting up to three 25bps increases in 2026 are pulling back and now expecting one. Swap rates at time of writing have also dropped, a positive sign for the fixed rate mortgage market. </strong></p><p><strong>But even if, as hoped, the ceasefire holds, much of the damage done to global supply chain and energy costs will take some time to unravel, with a similar impact on mortgage rates. All of which means any significant rebound in activity in the housing market may well take time to feed through. </strong></p><p><strong>Uncertainty hangs over the housing market</strong></p><p>A series of decidedly glum indicators have been released over the last week, highlighting the impact of geopolitical unrest on the UK housing market. First up Halifax, whose house price index suggested prices dipped 0.5 per cent in March compared with
    February, meaning prices were just 0.8 per cent higher than they were a year ago. </p><p>This was followed by the latest RICS survey, the first to fully cover the impact of Middle East conflict, which showed a drop in activity and appetite in the sales market. Needs based buyers were still looking to transact, and those with pre-March mortgage
    deals locked in were still active, but the discretionary market looked like it retreated again last month. </p><p>New buyer enquiries fell sharply, with the net balance declining to -39 per cent from -29 per cent in February&mdash;the weakest reading since August 2023. Agreed sales followed suit, dropping from -13 per cent to -34 per cent, also the lowest since summer
    2023. Near-term sales expectations turned markedly pessimistic at -33 per cent (from -4 per cent), whilst twelve-month outlook sentiment weakened to -1 per cent. New instructions registered a net balance of -6 per cent, indicating a marginally slower
    flow of listings. Unsold stock on agents' books rose to an average of 47 properties, up from 45 at the start of the year.</p><p>On pricing, near-term expectations dropped to -43 per cent from -19 per cent in the previous month indicating accelerating downward pressure anticipated over the next three months. The twelve-month outlook sits at +2 per cent, suggesting a broadly flat
    trend&mdash; but is down sharply from +43 per cent in January.</p><p>But while caution reigned in the sales market, tenant demand rose (+10 per cent net balance in March) alongside a continued drop in landlord instructions (remaining firmly negative at -25 per cent). Expectations for rental growth strengthened to +29 per
    cent, with agents citing persistent supply-demand imbalances and expectations that the uncertain outlook in the sales market could benefit the rental market.</p><p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1776635385/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Apr10-Chart1.jpg" /></p><p><strong>Construction activity remains muted</strong></p><p>Geopolitical uncertainty also weighed heavily on the latest construction PMIs. The UK construction sector's woes deepened in March 2026, with house building bearing the brunt of the downturn, compounded by a wet first quarter that made construction even
    more challenging. Residential activity recorded the sharpest decline across all construction categories, with the index falling to 38.2&mdash;well below both commercial construction (47.1) and civil engineering (44.8). Remember, a score below 50 signals
    a contraction in activity. This marks the fifteenth consecutive month that the sector has contracted, driven by falling client confidence and a dearth of new project starts.</p><p>What's particularly concerning for housebuilders is the acceleration and unpredictability of build costs. Input price inflation surged to its highest level since November 2022, with nearly half of all construction firms reporting rising cost burdens.
    The outbreak of war in the Middle East has disrupted supply chains, pushing up fuel, transportation and raw material costs. International shipping delays meant that supplier delivery times rose for the first time since last summer, adding further
    pressure to already squeezed margins.</p><p><strong>Falling short</strong></p><p>The latest estimated net additions figures highlight the need for further incentives to develop. Government figures suggest 191,300 homes were completed in England between 1 April 2025 and 15 March this year. This was 17,300 short of the previous 12-month
    total. Comparing estimates on net additions with housing needs targets shows the clear need for further intervention, with net additions (the most generous measure of housing delivery) 48 per cent shy of the 370,000 annual housing need across England.&nbsp;</p><p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1776635385/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Apr10-Chart2.jpg" /></p><p><strong>Housing Bank to the rescue? </strong></p><p>With a 180,000-home supply shortfall, debt more expensive, and viability more challenged, the launch of the National Housing Bank could not have come at a more important time. The National Housing Bank (NHB) is part of a raft of Homes England and GLA initiatives to promote further activity in the housing market, effectively aiming to alleviate some of the debt-based challenges faced by those delivering homes. </p><p>The scheme was launched with much fanfare, with a &pound;100m JV with Aviva championed as an example of how the schemes could turbocharge activity. The NHB has &pound;16 billion of debt, equity and guarantees aiming to assist in the delivery of half a million new homes. The bank also needs buy-in from the private sector, with an investment prospectus published to attract more than &pound;50 billion of private capital. Announced in the 2025 Spending Review, the Bank is a wholly government-owned subsidiary of Homes England. Its mission is to drive housing delivery and create communities, with returns only covering the cost of government borrowing. The Bank will work alongside Homes England as an independent subsidiary to provide tailored support packages.</p><p>The NHB is open to different providers from large housebuilders to SMEs. Crucially it is not limited to those operators providing affordable or build-for-sale homes, with build-to-rent and later living also able to access funds. From 1 April 2026, the NHB offers seven debt products:</p><p><strong>1-SME accelerator loans</strong> - providing site-specific lending enabling smaller developers to establish track records and scale operations. Targeted at supporting firms currently delivering up to 250 homes a year but looking to grow their output. </p><p><strong>2-Revolving credit facilities</strong> - working with commercial lenders to provide multi-site facilities and land loans, again targeted at helping SME developers expand capacity.<strong></strong></p><p><strong>3-Senior and mezzanine loans &ndash;</strong> targeted at mid-size developers with project-level funding, particularly for build-to-rent, later living and brownfield regeneration. Funding will sit alongside private capital to bring forward stalled projects.</p><p><strong>4-Corporate balance sheet lending</strong> - supports housebuilders directly and sits alongside commercial lending, a key focus is supporting those specialising in Modern Methods of Construction.</p><p><strong>5-Lending alliances - </strong>creating platforms leveraging private sector capital to broaden the Bank's reach and scale debt finance availability to SME housebuilders.</p><p><strong>6-Infrastructure loans</strong> - long-term funding up to 15 years to large housebuilders and master developers for upfront infrastructure needs ranging from roads to placemaking.</p><p><strong>7-Low interest loans for RPs - </strong>offers below-market interest rates to Registered Providers to unlock social and affordable housing investment, addressing pressures from increased debt costs and rising capital expenditure demands.</p><p>Partners are urged to reach out to their regional Homes England teams with specific sites or potential opportunities. With more information on the National Housing Bank available <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/homes-england-and-national-housing-bank-investment-prospectus-2026/homes-england-and-national-housing-bank-investment-prospectus-2026-html#fnref:1">here.</a><br /></p> <p>JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare and student housing. </p><p>Disclaimer: &copy; 2026 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property</p>

Residential Roundup - 10 April

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<p><strong>All nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee unanimously voted to hold rates at 3.75 per cent at the March meeting. This came as little surprise considering the many unknowns around the length and impact of the conflict in the Middle East. Just a few weeks back, following the February meeting the odds on a rate cut topped 80 per cent, with observers hinting at further downward movements in the coming months. Obviously much has changed since then.</strong></p><p>But with odds on a reduction in the Bank Rate falling from near certainty to less than 10 per cent in the run-up, market attention shifted to what committee members were saying rather than the decision itself. Some thought (or hoped) the committee would
    choose to &lsquo;look through&rsquo; energy cost driven inflation risk and concentrate on the ongoing weakness in the employment market. But the Bank&rsquo;s key focus &ndash; keeping inflation in check rather than focussing on growth &ndash; won
    out. </p><p>The Bank of England's decision to maintain its current interest rate stance reflects a broader pattern of monetary policy restraint among major central banks worldwide this week. The narrative emerging from all the Central Banks&rsquo; announcements was
    one of caution. The US Federal Reserve opted to keep rates within its existing 3.5 per cent to 3.75 per cent range, signalling continued caution in its approach to monetary adjustment. Canada held firm at 2.25 per cent, while both the Bank of Japan
    at 0.75 per cent and the European Central Bank at 2 per cent announced they too would be maintaining their respective rates for the time being.</p><p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1776634954/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Mar20-Chart1.jpg" /></p><p><strong>Outlook for inflation</strong></p><p>Maintaining its key focus on inflation, the Bank emphasised that it will be monitoring developments "extremely closely" and stands ready to act to ensure inflation returns to the 2 per cent target level. With the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) having fallen
    to 3 per cent in January, MPC forecasts back in February had anticipated inflation dropping back towards 2 per cent from as early as April, largely thanks to falls in the energy price cap. However, on Thursday, the MPC acknowledged that recent increases
    in wholesale energy costs would delay inflation's return to target, as these rises were already translating into higher fuel prices at the forecourt. The Committee now expects inflation to sit at around 3 per cent in the second quarter of 2026, a
    notable increase from the 2.1 per cent in the February forecast. </p><p>Looking ahead, higher wholesale gas prices are likely to feed through into a higher Ofgem energy price cap from July, which the Bank anticipates could add 0.75 percentage points to inflation over the third quarter. When combined with the prospect of firms
    passing on elevated energy costs to consumers, the MPC warned that CPI inflation could climb to as much as 3.5 per cent in the third quarter, considerably higher than the previous 2 per cent forecast.</p><p><strong>Employment figures</strong></p><p>The latest government figures revealed continued weakness in employment markets. Growth in private sector wages, excluding bonuses, was 3.3 per cent in the three months to January, below the 3.5 per cent expected by the markets. The jobless rate remained
    at 5.2 per cent, marginally lower than the 5.3 per cent forecast previously.</p><p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1776634954/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Mar20-Chart2.jpg" /></p><p><strong>Impact on mortgage rates</strong></p><p>With oil breaching $100 a barrel and the prospect of higher inflation for longer, swap rates (the benchmark rate for fixed rate mortgages) have risen. Markets are certainly pricing in the uncertainty &ndash; particularly in the short term, with two-year swaps now sitting higher than five-year. Products are being pulled, with the last of the sub 4 per cent deals now disappearing from lenders&rsquo; books. Moneyfacts data shows the average shelf-life of mortgage products fell from 33 days in early February to 14 in early March, the lowest for over two years.</p><p>Moneyfacts tracked the removal of 600 mortgage products over the past few weeks. Not great news for borrowers, but this does reflect only around 10 per cent of the overall market.&nbsp; The number of mortgage products available is still more than double those offered in the weeks following the 2022 mini-Budget. Average two-year fixed rates have risen from 4.84 per cent at the start of March to 5.32 per cent on the morning of the MPC meeting. </p><p><strong>What does this mean for the housing market? </strong></p><p>Uncertainty often leads to greater caution among buyers, particularly those who are less needs driven. In the short term, we expect those who have already locked in more favourable mortgage deals will be keen to push through transactions. But for those thinking of entering the market, heightened uncertainty alongside higher rates will likely deter some from moving. </p><p>Our 2026 forecast, made back in November, always predicted a stronger H2 than H1. It&rsquo;s still too early to call, and we are obviously all hoping for a swift resolution to the current conflict. But if the conflict persists, we could see a delay in the recovery this year. We&rsquo;re reviewing our outlook and will keep you posted once we have a clearer view.<br /></p>  <p>JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare and student housing. </p><p>Disclaimer: &copy; 2026 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.</p>

Residential Roundup - 20 March

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<p><strong>With the government committing to one &ldquo;fiscal event&rdquo; a year, the Spring Forecast was, as expected, policy light but forecast heavy. There was some (rare) positive news for the Chancellor, with cash receipts coming in stronger than the Budget watchdog expected, rising to the tune of &pound;22bn. An increase in receipts from self-assessment tax returns (including the impact of fiscal drag pulling more taxpayers into higher bands) alongside VAT and CGT increases are helping fill the coffers. This will be welcome news for the government, particularly following the loss of the Gorton and Denton by-election, with both the Greens and Reform making significant gains.&nbsp;</strong></p><p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1776634617/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Mar6-Chart1.jpg" /></p><p>The outlook for UK GDP remains subdued, with the Office for Budget Responsibility downgrading their view on 2026 growth from a 1.4 per cent forecast in November to 1.1, although the outlook for 2027 and 2028 improved marginally from 1.6 per cent growth
    to 1.7. This downgrade was due, in part, to a drop in net migration, with the OBR now expecting net migration to average 235,000 a year between 2026 and 2030, 60,000 a year lower than the 295,000 it was predicting in November.</p><p>Unemployment is now expected to peak at 5.3 per cent this year, up from a November forecast of 4.9 per cent. Youth unemployment remains particularly challenging, with 16 per cent of 16- to 24-year-olds out of work in Q4 2025, nearing an 11-year high.
    </p><p>Inflation is expected to fall back from 3.5 per cent in 2025 to 2.3 per cent in 2026 &ndash; down from November&rsquo;s forecast of 2.5 per cent. But as the conflict in Iran continues to escalate, the Office for Budget Responsibility&rsquo;s forecasts
    looked out of date even before they were published, with continued military action in the Middle East sending shockwaves through the markets. Airline stocks dropped by more than 10 per cent while fears over oil supply saw the share prices of BP and
    Shell spike. Oil has hit $85 a barrel but crucially remained below the $128 threshold reached following Russia&rsquo;s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Similarly, the price of liquefied natural gas, of which around 20 per cent of global supply comes out
    of Qatar, almost doubled compared with pre-conflict levels as QatarEnergy confirmed a suspension in production following an attack on its primary operational hubs.&nbsp;</p><p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1776634617/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Mar6-Chart2.jpg" /></p><p>There are many reasons aside from the fiscal to hope for a quick resolution, but fears over the impact of a drawn-out conflict on inflation remain. Expectations that we may see a further rate cut at the next MPC meeting on 19th March have all but evaporated - the odds on a rate cut in March slashed from north of 70 per cent last week to around 20 per cent at time of writing. </p><p>&nbsp;</p><p><strong>Housing market</strong></p><p>There was little in the Spring Forecast for housing, with those pinning their hopes on an outside chance that much needed buy side incentives would be announced again disappointed. Although rumours abound that the government is continuing to consult on how best to support first-time buyers. The OBR still expect the government&rsquo;s housebuilding aspirations are unachievable, forecasting 1.3 million homes UK wide by 2029/30, 200,000 short of the government&rsquo;s England only target. That said, the Spring statement adds 30,000 to the previous figures published in November. Here at JLL we&rsquo;re a little more pessimistic, with expectations of closer to 1 million homes over the forecast period. </p><p>House prices were expected to rise by an average of 2.5 per cent per annum over the next five years, with only a marginal 0.2 percentage point increase and another 0.1 percentage point rise expected in 2027 and 2028 over the November outlook. This is more pessimistic than the JLL view, with our UK forecast expecting just shy of 20 per cent increase in prices by the end of 2029 against 16.4 per cent forecast over the next five years by the OBR. </p><p><strong>In other news</strong></p><p>Houses prices edged up in February, with the Nationwide Index showing prices rising 0.3 per cent month-on-month. But with inflation at circa. 3 per cent, prices on an inflation adjusted basis fell, meaning further improvement in affordability. For rents, Homelet&rsquo;s reported average UK rental values rose 2 per cent in the year to February. The North East was the only English region to record above inflation increases in rents at 4.6 per cent, with rents rising in real terms in Scotland (+4.6 per cent) and Wales (3.1 per cent).</p><p>Yet despite notional increases in spending power in most markets, prospective buyers remained cautious in January. Mortgage approvals dropped below 60,000, their lowest for two years. Of course, January is never the busiest month for the mortgage markets, but the promise of better rates ahead, as well as continued economic uncertainty around growth and job security could well be impacting here. We&rsquo;ll need a few more months of data to tell. </p><p><strong>In case you missed it</strong></p><p>Our latest JLL Big Six Residential Development Report shows the average price of new build apartments across the six cities rose 2.4% in 2025, while rental growth slowed to 1.7%. In the build-to-rent market, total investment volumes exceeded &pound;1bn in 2025, 21% higher than 2024. North of the border the passing of the Scottish Housing Bill, and the exemption of BTR from future rent caps is expected to boost activity and put Scotland firmly back on investors&rsquo; radars. To download a copy of the report <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/insights/article/big-six-residential-development-report-2026">click here</a>. <br /></p> <p>JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare and student housing. </p><p>Disclaimer: &copy; 2026 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.</p>

Residential Roundup - 6 March

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<p>The government unveiled the draft Commonhold and Leasehold Reform Bill at the end of January. This follows the adoption of the Renters' Rights Act, which ends “no-fault” evictions, and the ban on upwards-only rent reviews in commercial leases. This proposed legislation represents a significant overhaul of residential property ownership structures, with the potential to impact over five million existing leaseholders.</p>
<p>The centrepiece of these reforms is a cap on ground rents at £250 annually from late 2028, dropping to a nominal peppercorn rate after 40 years. For many leaseholders currently facing escalating ground rents – particularly those trapped by doubling clauses – this provides substantial savings throughout their lease term as well as certainty over costs. The changes will be particularly welcomed by homeowners whose properties became difficult to mortgage or sell due to onerous ground rent terms.</p>
<p>The legislation also looks to abolish the controversial and widely criticised forfeiture system. Under current rules, leaseholders can lose their homes and equity over debts as low as £350. The new enforcement regime introduces a structured court process. Where properties must be sold, leaseholders will receive any balance after landlords' claims and mortgage debts are settled.</p>
<p>However, this retrospective capping of existing contractual arrangements is a significant departure from traditional legal principles and is likely to face legal challenges from investors who have acquired ground rent income streams in the past.</p>
<h2>The End of New Leases</h2>
<p>Building on the 2022 ban on new leasehold houses and ground rent ban on new flat leases, the Bill prohibits new leasehold flats entirely. Instead, newly built residential developments will use commonhold structures, where homeowners collectively own both their individual properties and a proportional share in the building itself. This offers greater control to those ultimately bearing the costs.</p>
<p>However, commonhold isn't without challenges, and despite being introduced in 2002 has seen low levels of take-up. Owners will still need to grapple with collective decision-making and shared responsibilities – issues familiar to anyone involved in right-to-manage companies or share of freehold arrangements. Owners of commonhold properties will also be legally responsible for building safety requirements, with failure to adhere to rules opening owners up to legal action, fines or even imprisonment. If commonhold owners don’t want to collectively manage their buildings, they may choose to engage a managing agent. However, management companies, used to dealing with single freeholders, may also find it more challenging and more costly to engage with multiple commonhold owners or committees, most of whom are unlikely to have previous property management experience. This lack of track record may also prove challenging for lenders, with newly established commonhold structures unable to demonstrate the managerial and financial track record larger management companies or freehold owners can offer. All of which means the success of commonhold will depend heavily on whether the updated framework addresses these practical complexities effectively.</p>
<p>For developers this also represents a fundamental shift away from the traditional model of retaining or selling on freehold ownership. However, the ban includes exemptions for ‘permitted leases’ which looks to include build-to-rent schemes, purpose-built student accommodation and social housing.</p>
<h2>Conversion of Existing Leaseholds</h2>
<p>Existing leaseholders aren't left behind. The reforms attempt to simplify conversion to commonhold, replacing the current unanimous consent requirement with a 50% threshold. Buildings will be able to maintain mixed ownership during transition periods, with mechanisms ensuring effective management whilst preserving rights for homeowners.</p>
<h2>Implications </h2>
<p>These changes will impact both leaseholders and those who invest, lend and develop in the sector. Freehold investors, including several pension funds, face reduced income streams, while developers lose a traditional revenue source from freehold sales, potentially affecting development viability.</p>
<p>For homebuyers, commonhold developments may become increasingly attractive due to enhanced transparency and owner control. But the ability to convert should prevent market segmentation between leasehold and commonhold properties.</p>
<p>For lenders, the transition period may also cause legal and valuation headaches. The removal of “marriage value” in lease extensions will significantly reduce the cost of extending a lease but also distorts long established and legally ratified approaches to valuation used to assess the differential in the value of short lease properties. This could lead to uncertainty around true value and cause issues for those looking to lend or secure finance on short lease properties.</p>
<h2>Timeline</h2>
<p>Currently in draft form, the legislation faces parliamentary scrutiny and likely legal challenges. The ground rent cap won't take effect until late 2028, providing time for market adjustment and legal resolution.</p>
<p>The transition presents challenges, particularly for existing investors, but the legislation promises greater security and control for millions of homeowners. Ultimately success will be measured by the extent to which these complex reforms deliver the improved homeownership experience the government promises, both for current leaseholders and future residents.</p>
<h2>JLL Research</h2>
<p>JLL’s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare and student housing.</p>
<p><sup>Disclaimer: © 2026 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.</sup></p>

Implications of Leasehold Reform

<p>The government unveiled the draft Commonhold and Leasehold Reform Bill at the end of January. This follows the adoption of the Renters' Rights Act, which ends &ldquo;no-fault&rdquo; evictions, and the ban on upwards-only rent reviews in commercial leases. This proposed legislation represents a significant overhaul of residential property ownership structures, with the potential to impact over five million existing leaseholders.</p>

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Big Six Residential Development Report 2026

The JLL Big Six Residential Development Report compares activity, prices, and rents across six UK cities: Birmingham, Bristol, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Leeds and Manchester. This report incorporates data from the JLL UK Cities index, comparing changes in prices and rents across mainstream and prime developments in each city.

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<p><strong>It&rsquo;s been quite a week (again) in Westminster, with further revelations about the former U.S. Ambassador looking at points as if they could topple Starmer. Yields on ten-year government debt rose to just shy of 4.6 per cent in response but have since settled, with the pound weakening against both the dollar and euro</strong><strong>, too. </strong></p><p><strong>But despite calls from Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar for the PM to stand down, the cabinet came out broadly in support. For Sarwar, the upcoming Holyrood election will be at the forefront of his mind, but for Starmer, too, the 7 May local elections remain a thorn in Labour&rsquo;s side, with the potential for &lsquo;protest&rsquo; voting to further destabilise Starmer and Labour&rsquo;s front benches. </strong></p><p><strong>UK economy</strong></p><p>Like front line politics, unpicking what&rsquo;s happening to the UK economy remains challenging. Following a surprise 0.3 per cent uptick in GDP in the three months to November, the December (Q4) figures came in at a somewhat underwhelming 0.1 per cent,
    the same as recorded in Q3. This took full-year 2025 growth to 1.3 per cent, notably above the figure most forecasters predicted earlier in the year. </p><p>The announcement of these results resulted in some significant political cherry-picking, with Labour citing the UK as the best-performing European G7 nation (effectively we did better than France, Germany and Italy). The Conservatives took a different
    stance, with the flatlining of GDP in the second half of the year blamed squarely at Rachel Reeves&rsquo; decision making. </p><p>Looking ahead, the OBR expects growth of 0.9 per cent in 2026, whereas consensus forecasts are a little higher at 1.0 per cent.&nbsp;</p><p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1776634352/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Feb13-Chart2.jpg" /></p><p><strong>Caution around the labour market</strong></p><p>The labour market has continued its gradual cooling from the post-pandemic tightness that characterised recent years. The unemployment rate remained at 5.1 per cent in the three months to November&mdash;October, the highest level since 2016 when excluding
    the pandemic disruption. But there are now 3.7 million more people in employment than when unemployment last reached this level. Job vacancies remained stable in November at 2.3 per 100 employee jobs for the fourth consecutive month, sitting modestly
    below the pre-pandemic average of 2.6.</p><p>The inflation picture presents a much brighter outlook than we've seen over the past two years, despite some uneven progress. Core inflationary pressures, particularly in goods, continue to subside, and slower wage growth is expected to gradually filter
    through to services inflation.</p><p>Most forecasters anticipate inflation will continue its downward trajectory throughout 2026, drawing closer to the Bank of England's 2 per cent target. Financial markets expect this will permit further gradual monetary easing as we move through 2026.
    The Bank of England maintained its policy rate at 3.75 per cent at its most recent meeting but signalled the possibility of additional cuts. Markets and economists are forecasting up to two further 25 basis point reductions in the year ahead.</p><p><strong>UK investment</strong></p><p>JLL data on UK real estate investment volumes (all sectors), shows volumes increased 64 per cent quarter on quarter to &pound;16.4bn in Q4, from &pound;10.0bn in Q3.&nbsp; This represented a 28 per cent increase on 2024 where volumes reached &pound;12.8bn
    in Q4. Growth also remained higher than the long-run average, at 10 per cent above the 10-year Q4 average. </p><p>A strong Q4 means total 2025 volumes rose to &pound;49.0bn, 27 per cent above 2024 volumes of &pound;38.7bn and 2 per cent above the 10-year average.</p><p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1776634352/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Feb13-Chart1.jpg" /></p><p><strong>Affordability at a decade high</strong></p><p>UK wage growth dropped to its lowest level since 2022 in the three months to November, rising 4.5 per cent year-on-year. Yet despite the recent drop in the rate of wage inflation, increases in earnings have been outpacing house prices for some time now. This has resulted in house price to earnings ratio dropping from a high of 6.9 times earnings in Q2 2022 to 5.6 times in Q4 2025. This means house prices, when measured as a multiple of earnings are at their most affordable for over a decade. </p><p>London has followed a similar trajectory. Back in 2016 average London house price hit 11.7 times earnings but almost a decade on the ratio had fallen to 8.8. The last time London had a similar ratio was back in Q4 2013. </p><p>The challenge more recently has been around mortgage costs, with higher rates effectively wiping out affordability advantages. But rates are improving, best-buys are under 3.6 per cent and the effective interest rate on new mortgages edged down to 4.15 per cent in December from 4.20 per cent in the previous month.</p><p><strong>Housing market</strong></p><p>Responses to the January RICS survey point to some green shoots in the residential market this year. The 12-month view on house prices rose for the fifth consecutive month, with a net balance of +43 per cent of respondents expecting prices to be higher at the same point in 2027. The outlook for rental growth remains positive too, with a net balance of +28 per cent expecting near-term rental increases.</p><p><strong>JLL Research</strong></p><p>JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare and student housing. </p><p>Disclaimer: &copy; 2025 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.</p>

Residential Roundup - 13 February

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<p><strong>Government announcements have been coming in thick and fast this week. They&rsquo;ve confirmed the detail behind much-anticipated changes to leasehold ownership, provided clarity on decent homes, minimum energy efficiency standards, warm homes, affordable housing rent convergence and low-cost loans for housing associations. Here at JLL we&rsquo;ve been busy releasing reports of our own too, with our latest Prime Central London and Living Roundup out now. So, buckle up, take a deep breath, and we&rsquo;ll run through what we&rsquo;ve learnt in the last fortnight. </strong><strong></strong></p><p><strong>Leasehold reform</strong></p><p>The government has finally published the Draft Commonhold and Leasehold Reform Bill. Reactions differ depending on which side of the leasehold fence one sits. Owners of freeholds bought as investments (which include individuals and larger institutions)
    will be assessing the implications for income. Developers too will be keen for more clarity on the impact of commonhold structures for future development, something which we&rsquo;ll be looking into more in the coming weeks. But for individuals owning
    leasehold properties or those looking to buy the reaction remains positive. The proposed capping of annual ground rents at &pound;250 from 2028 (dropping to a peppercorn rent after 40 years) will mean existing homeowners who own properties with more
    complex ground rent structures (doubling ground rents being one of the most challenging) finding it easier to secure a mortgage or sell their homes. It also reassures prospective owners that costs will not escalate going forward, supporting increased
    activity in the market. With challenges around escalating service charges, the greater transparency a commonhold structure brings may mean common holders have more control (or at least better oversight) of fees charged too.</p><p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1776634116/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Jan30-Chart1.jpg" /></p><p><strong>Housing delivery &ndash; a mixed picture</strong></p><p>The government&rsquo;s commitment to 1.5 million homes appears unwavering, however 18 months from coming to power the delivery of new homes has reached near record lows. The government will welcome some positive headlines, with an 18 per cent annual increase
    in housing starts in the year to September 2025. But this isn&rsquo;t the full picture. Changes to building regulations meant starts spiked and then dropped back in Q2 2023, meaning the hike in starts comes off an abnormally low base.</p><p>In London Molior&rsquo;s latest release was mixed too. The number of starts totalled just over 5,500 in 2025 - it was 34,000 a decade earlier - meaning Molior&rsquo;s London starts in 2025 were just 6 per cent of London&rsquo;s 88,000 housing needs target.
    But there was a glimmer of hope, with Q4 starts rising, accounting for 41 per cent of the albeit low 2025 total.</p><p><strong>Affordable housing clarity</strong></p><p>The government has set out the detail behind rent convergence for social housing. The announcements are designed to address the difference in rents charged for some social homes and formula rents for comparable properties. This means more fairness for
    tenants who won&rsquo;t pay vastly different rates for similar homes just because they&rsquo;ve lived in a property for longer or have a different social landlord. From April 2027 affordable housing providers will be able to increase rents by &pound;1
    per week over and above CPI plus 1 per cent rising to &pound;2 per week above CPI+1 from April 2028. Rent convergence can run for up to ten years, or until they reach parity. London has the widest gap and is expected to take the longest with some
    regional markets needing only a year or so to regain lost ground. The announcements on rent convergence are seen as key in underpinning providers&rsquo; balance sheets and ensuring they have the confidence and financial ability to deliver more homes.</p><p>Details were also shared on the &pound;2.5bn of low-cost loans for housing associations announced at the spending review. The 25-year loans will have an interest rate of 0.1 per cent. &pound;250m will be set aside to support section 106, with the remaining
    90 per cent supporting the delivery of social housing through grant-funding.&nbsp;</p><p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1776634116/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Jan30-Chart2.jpg" /></p><p><strong>Living update</strong></p><p>A record &pound;22.8bn was invested in UK Living in 2025, with healthcare contributing more than half of the total as it ended the year with several &pound;1bn+ M&amp;A deals. Excluding healthcare, investment grew a more modest 2 per cent to &pound;10.1bn,
    rising for the second year running from the trough in 2023 (&pound;8.9bn). Single family investment overtook multifamily in 2025 with &pound;2.6bn invested, accounting for just over half of all build-to-rent investment last year. </p><p>The 2024/25 student data released by HESA this week gives us a glimpse at the first full year impact of restrictions on international students brought in at the start of 2024. The number of international students has fallen 10 per cent from its 2022/23
    peak, totalling 686,000 in 2024/25. Though still above the UK's (now scrapped) 600,000 target, it does represent a significant fall at a time that universities remain reliant on international tuition fees. The slowdown among international students
    resulted in a marginal 1 per cent decline in total university students. Despite a degree of uncertainty, investors were still active in the student market, with &pound;4.6bn of investment completing across the year, up 22 per cent annually. For more
    analysis on the UK living sector read Karl Tomusk&rsquo;s latest Living Roundup <a href="https://www.jll.com/en-uk/insights/uk-living-roundup-series">here.</a></p><p><strong>Prime Central London</strong></p><p>Pre-budget anxiety means drawing firm conclusions from Q4 data isn&rsquo;t advisable, but there were some glimmers of hope for a sunnier year ahead. Prices across PCL were down 7.3 per cent year-on-year in Q4, following a 1.6 per cent quarterly decline.
    But with more clarity post-Budget activity began to pick up with transactions above &pound;10 million rising by 36 per cent over the quarter, with buyers who&rsquo;d agreed prices pre-Budget gaining the confidence to exchange. Activity below &pound;2million
    was driven largely by domestic buyers, with transactions at this price point rising 7 per cent over the quarter. Activity in the &pound;2&ndash;5 million and &pound;5&ndash;10 million ranges was more subdued, likely reflecting lingering uncertainty
    earlier in the quarter around proposed tax changes. To read Meg Eglington&rsquo;s take on the Q4 PCL market <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/insights/research/jll-pcl-report-q4-2025">click here.</a><br /></p><p><strong>JLL Research</strong></p><p>JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare
    and student housing. </p><p>Disclaimer: &copy; 2025 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as
    to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any
    means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right
    to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.</p>

Residential Roundup - 30 January

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JLL PCL Report – Q4 2025

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<p>Hopes of a more settled geopolitical landscape in 2026 have been quickly dashed, with Trump&rsquo;s intervention in Venezuela, little progress on a peaceful resolution in Ukraine, the return of transatlantic friction over Greenland and distressing scenes in Iran leaving questions over the prospect of further US intervention.</p><p>But there are signs that economically 2026 could prove more settled. The Budget is behind us and the promise of one fiscal event a year &ndash; and hopefully lessons learnt from the pre-Budget paralysis last year &ndash; mean we could see more activity this year. The Bank of England has hinted they expect inflation will drop back to levels at or close to their 2 per cent target by the end of 2026, with two or more rate cuts this year looking more likely.<strong> </strong></p><p>There was some promising news on GDP in November, recovering from an October contraction of 0.1 per cent to grow 0.3 per cent in November, a five-month high. It isn&rsquo;t always prudent to read too much into monthly GDP numbers, but the increase in
    November does point to modest growth rather than a contraction once the Q4 figures surface. The reopening of the Jaguar Land Rover production line supported the November figure (and fed into the negativity in October), with car manufacturing rising
    26 per cent month-on-month. </p><p>For the housing market 2026 also brings some much-needed clarity on acronyms, with the NPPF, SAHP, RRA and rent settlement now published or expected to be released in Q1. We&rsquo;re forecasting a slow recovery rather than a step change in prices and
    activity this year. Our latest forecasts, published in early December, point to marginal growth of 2 per cent in prices and 2.5 per cent in rents this year. If you missed them, you can read more on our latest forecasts<strong> </strong><a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/insights/news/residential-forecasts-2025">here.</a><strong></strong></p><p><strong>Market activity</strong></p><p>UK property transactions reached 100,350 in November, up 7.7 per cent annually and 1.3 per cent month-on-month, according to HMRC data. This sits just 1 per cent below the long-term pre-pandemic average (2013-2019). Rightmove&rsquo;s full year figures
    show sales agreed in 2025 were 3 per cent higher than 2024. But with transactions taking more than six months to progress from listing to exchange the slowdown in activity observed later in 2025 will take months to show up in the figures, meaning
    we&rsquo;re in for a few months of underwhelming figures, even if the market is feeling a little rosier.</p><p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1768581921/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Jan16-Chart2.jpg" /><br /></p><p>The RICS survey provides a timelier picture of market sentiment. It has been decidedly gloomy of late, with uncertainty pre-Budget weighing heavily on respondents&rsquo; market outlook. But their December survey, the first post-Budget, looks more promising.
    December isn&rsquo;t the best month to take the temperature of the housing market, with little change in new instructions reported by RICS and the near-term outlook for prices remaining broadly flat, but a higher number of respondents are now expecting
    prices to rise in 2026. A net balance of +35 per cent of respondents expect an increase, up from +16 in October and +24 in November. Sales expectations rose too, with a net balance of 34 per cent of respondent expecting activity to increase in 2026,
    the highest reading since December 2024. Rents are expected to rise in 2026 too, with respondents to the survey forecasting growth of 3 per cent nationally in 2026. <br /></p><p><strong>Prices</strong></p><p>Budget jitters acted as a dampener on house prices in the final months of 2025. Both Halifax and Nationwide reported UK house prices declining month-on-month in December, with Halifax showing a 0.6 per cent decrease and Nationwide recording a 0.4 per
    cent drop. Despite these monthly declines, annual price growth remained marginally positive at 0.3 per cent (Halifax) and 0.6 per cent (Nationwide) for the year ending December 2025. At a country and regional level prices in Q4 2025 rose in all areas
    bar East Anglia, where prices fell 0.8 per cent annually. Growth in the price of houses continues to outpace flats, with semi-detached houses recording 2.4 per cent growth annually, UK wide, compared with a 0.9 per cent fall for flats.<strong></strong></p><p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1768581921/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Jan16-Chart1.jpg" /></p><p><strong>Rents</strong></p><p>The rental market followed typical seasonal patterns, with the final months traditionally bringing higher stock levels and modest rental adjustments. December 2025 saw average rents for new lets fall 1.5 per cent month-on-month, resulting in annual growth of 2.6 per cent for the year according to Homelet. The North East was the strongest English region at 6.6 per cent, Scotland recorded a solid 4.0 per cent annual increase, with Wales achieving 2.9 per cent growth over the same period.</p><p><strong>Mortgage market</strong></p><p>UK mortgage approvals dipped in November, with 0.7 per cent fewer approvals month-on-month and 6.7 per cent fewer annually. But considering this coincided with the run up to the Budget, falls were more marginal than some predicted and the 12-month rolling rate remains resilient.</p><p>This points to increased activity this year, supported by an increase in more competitive mortgage rates reaching the market. The effective interest rate on newly drawn mortgages averaged 4.20 per cent in November, down from 4.53 per cent in February, with best-buy fixed rates falling to 3.5 per cent in mid-January.<br /></p><p><strong>JLL Research</strong></p><p>JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare and student housing. </p><h5>Disclaimer: &copy; 2025 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.</h5>

Residential Roundup - 16 January

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Discover the latest insights from Marcus Dixon in the first Residential Roundup of 2026 

<strong>Discover the latest insights from Marcus Dixon in the first Residential Roundup of 2026&nbsp;</strong>

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Renters' Rights Act

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The Renters&rsquo; Rights Bill (RRB) proposes significant reform within the private rental sector. The bill itself has been making fast progress through Parliament, having already passed through the House of Commons. It is now widely expected to come into effect from this<em>&nbsp;</em>spring onwards.&nbsp;

The Renters’ Rights Bill (RRB) proposes significant reform within the private rental sector. The bill itself has been making fast progress through Parliament, having already passed through the House of Commons. 

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<p><strong>The 2025 Budget provided clarity but little else to materially change our outlook for prices and rents. But a positive response from the bond markets and the Bank of England in rate cutting mode means we are seeing more competitive mortgage rates enter the market, which will, we expect, support activity and price growth over the next five years, albeit at the lower end of historic norms. </strong></p><p><strong>Forecasts post-Budget</strong></p><p>The High Value Council Tax Surcharge is perhaps the least damaging to market activity of the proposed &lsquo;mansion&rsquo; taxes floated pre-budget. And while we expect that it may impact some buyers and homeowners&rsquo; decision to purchase, the annual
    charge is more likely to be begrudgingly absorbed rather than directly impacting decision-making. </p><p>The 2% additional tax rate for property income also hits smaller landlords, many of whom have seen profit margins shrink and are facing additional regulatory hoops with the introduction of the Renters&rsquo; Rights Act. </p><p>We expect this will further encourage landlords on the fence to exit, constraining supply and putting upward pressure on rents. </p><p>The Budget contained many references to growth, but there were few clear policies that signalled it, a view shared by the OBR in their downbeat forecast for growth and productivity.&nbsp; </p><p>So, in the absence of any demand side incentives for housing we are relying on an improvement in wider market conditions to support growth. Here there is some more positive news, with the Bank of England now in the rate cutting phase of the cycle, and
    expectation for up to three further cuts to the Base Rate by next summer. An easing in rates and some improvements in housing affordability, with house prices having underperformed wage growth, will help here too. But we expect this will mean a recovery
    to long term norms, rather than any significant outperformance.</p><p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1765745114/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Forecasts-Map.jpg" /></p><p><strong>House prices</strong></p><p>JLL forecast house prices will rise by 20% over the next five years UK-wide. More affordable regions are expected to outperform in the near-term, with London and southern England forecast to see stronger growth towards the back end of our five-year period.
</p><p>Overall, we expect growth of 17.6% across Greater London between 2026 and 2030, compared with 23.4% in the strongest performing English region the North West. Scotland and Wales, usually seeing stronger growth at the tail end of the housing cycle are
    expected to see prices rise by 24.6% and 23.4%, respectively. </p><p>For central London, clarity around taxation, and the absence of some of the more draconian policies floated pre-Budget will confine the most significant price falls to 2025. JLL&rsquo;s central London sales business had its busiest month in 17 months
    in November, with anxious central London buyers holding off until the Budget now transacting. </p><p>Price falls in central London are expected to bottom out in H1 2026, as fears of more onerous tax changes subside post-Budget. But with a more domestic focussed buyer pool still looking for value we don&rsquo;t expect this will translate into meaningful
    price increase until later in the five-year forecast period. Meaning prices ending 2026 flat and rising 17% in the five years to 2030.</p><p><strong>JLL house price forecast</strong><strong></strong></p><table style="border-collapse:collapse;width:100%;"><thead><tr style="background-color:#5a9bb0;color:white;"><th style="border:1px solid white;padding:10px;text-align:center;" data-role="resizable"></th><th style="border:1px solid white;padding:10px;text-align:center;">2025</th><th style="border:1px solid white;padding:10px;text-align:center;">2026</th><th style="border:1px solid white;padding:10px;text-align:center;">2027</th><th style="border:1px solid white;padding:10px;text-align:center;">2028</th><th style="border:1px solid white;padding:10px;text-align:center;">2029</th><th style="border:1px solid white;padding:10px;text-align:center;">2030</th><th style="border:1px solid white;padding:10px;text-align:center;">Change<br />2026-<br />2030</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr style="background-color:#e8e8e8;"><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;font-weight:bold;background-color:#c8d6db;">UK</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">1.5%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">2.0%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">4.0%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">4.5%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">4.5%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">3.5%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">19.9%</td></tr><tr><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;font-weight:bold;background-color:#c8d6db;">Greater<br />London</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">-1.0%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">1.0%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">2.5%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">3.5%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">5.0%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">4.5%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">17.6%</td></tr><tr style="background-color:#e8e8e8;"><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;font-weight:bold;background-color:#c8d6db;">Central<br />London</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">-5.0%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">0.0%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">2.0%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">4.0%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">5.0%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">5.0%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">17.0%</td></tr></tbody></table><p>Source: JLL Research</p><p><strong>Rental market</strong></p><p>The additional tax burden for landlords post-Budget, alongside concerns over the implementation of the Renters&rsquo; Rights Act will mean constrained supply continues, as more landlords exit than enter the sector, supporting rental growth. </p><p>We forecast rents will rise at marginally above wage growth over the next five years, with 15.9% growth between 2026 and 2030 nationally. </p><p>A more settled outlook for inflation and wages means our expectations on rental growth are more muted than recent highs. However, this reflects a return to pre-pandemic norms rather than a fundamental shift in market dynamics. </p><p>Rental growth is forecast to be marginally higher in London, with growth of 17% across Greater London and 16.5% in central London over the same period.</p><p><strong>JLL rental growth forecast</strong><br /></p><table style="border-collapse:collapse;width:100%;"><thead><tr style="background-color:#8db89a;color:black;"><th style="border:1px solid white;padding:10px;text-align:center;"></th><th style="border:1px solid white;padding:10px;text-align:center;" data-role="resizable">2025</th><th style="border:1px solid white;padding:10px;text-align:center;">2026</th><th style="border:1px solid white;padding:10px;text-align:center;">2027</th><th style="border:1px solid white;padding:10px;text-align:center;">2028</th><th style="border:1px solid white;padding:10px;text-align:center;">2029</th><th style="border:1px solid white;padding:10px;text-align:center;">2030</th><th style="border:1px solid white;padding:10px;text-align:center;">Change<br />2026-<br />2030</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr style="background-color:#e8e8e8;"><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;font-weight:bold;background-color:#b8d0c1;">UK</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">3.0%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">2.5%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">2.5%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">3.0%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">3.5%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">3.5%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">15.9%</td></tr><tr><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;font-weight:bold;background-color:#b8d0c1;">Greater<br />London</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">3.5%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">2.0%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">3.0%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">3.5%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">4.0%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">3.5%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">17.0%</td></tr><tr style="background-color:#e8e8e8;"><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;font-weight:bold;background-color:#b8d0c1;">Central<br />London</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">2.5%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">1.5%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">3.0%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">3.0%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">4.0%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">4.0%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">16.5%</td></tr></tbody></table><p>Source: JLL Research</p><p><strong>JLL Research</strong></p><p>JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare and student housing. </p><p>Disclaimer: &copy; 2025 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.</p>

Residential Forecasts

Discover the latest insights from Marcus Dixon in this week's Residential Roundup, including our latest 2026-2030 forecasts.

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<p>Discussions on the health of the UK economy and housing market recently have been dominated by Budget uncertainty and unanswered questions around the Social &amp; Affordable Homes Programme and rent convergence. While we're still awaiting clarity on these
    two, with the Budget behind us, we can now refocus on underlying market fundamentals.</p><p>JLL recently held a series of client seminars around the country in partnership with Trowers &amp; Hamlins. Together, we explored the state of the housing market, the latest challenges and opportunities in loan security valuations, and current and emerging
    legal issues surrounding charging and treasury for Registered Providers.</p>
To read our reflections on the 2025 seminars and our outlook for the sector <a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1765745664/resi/gb/Articles/Images/JLL_Affordable_Housing_Seminar_Reflections.pdf">CLICK HERE</a>

Affordable Housing Q4 2025

Discussions on the health of the UK economy and housing market recently have been dominated by Budget uncertainty and unanswered questions around the Social &amp; Affordable Homes Programme and rent convergence. While we're still awaiting clarity on these two, with the Budget behind us, we can now refocus on underlying market fundamentals.

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<p><strong>This was always going to be a balancing act Budget, attempting to keep the party, markets (read bond yields) and the electorate happy. There were some clear concessions to Labour backbenchers, including the abolition of the two-child benefit cap, but it was clear &ndash; even before the Budget began thanks to the OBR - that this would be a Budget of multiple small changes rather than a handful of wide-ranging (but manifesto busting) hikes to income tax or VAT.</strong></p><p><strong>Confidence returns</strong></p><p>The property industry was not alone in needing clarity after months of speculation that had slowed activity. Simply knowing what would and wouldn't change should provide hesitant buyers and sellers with some confidence to re-enter the market.</p><p>For the housing market, there were clear (and missed) chances to go further in supporting transactions and unlocking much-needed development. Reforming taxes such as stamp duty, which continues to hold up the market by discouraging people from moving,
    would have made a meaningful difference. Targeted support at the entry level would have made a far greater difference to market mobility, particularly with the OBR acknowledging they expect further falls in housing net additions through to 2027. </p><p>However, bond markets have reacted positively, suggesting yields may fall further, creating opportunities for rate cuts. While we didn't see demand-side stimulus, we could still see a rise in activity through more competitive debt costs next year.</p><p><strong>OBR forecasts</strong></p><p>The OBR is expecting UK GDP to rise 1.5 per cent this year, up from the 1 per cent forecast in the Spring. House prices growth is expected to broadly track nominal earning growth over the forecast period, rising from &pound;260,000 in 2024 to &pound;305,000
    in 2030. Transactions are expected to rise to around 1.3 million by 2029, up from 1.1 million in 2024, but down by more than 155,000 per annum on the March forecast. </p><p><strong>Key changes for housing</strong></p><p>With so much kite flying pre-Budget, clarity around what changes might be introduced for our sector was much welcome. Rumours of changes to or the removal of Stamp Duty or wide-ranging council tax revaluation were notable in their absence. Overall, we
    could have seen more damaging policies introduced, particularly those impacting the top end of the market, but similarly there was little in the Budget which looked set to dramatically change the trajectory of the market. So, what&rsquo;s changing?
</p><p><strong>Tax rates for income from rental properties</strong></p><p>From April 2027, property income tax rates will increase by two percentage points. Basic rate taxpayers will pay 22%, higher rate 42%, and additional rate 47%. Note that landlords owning properties through limited companies face different rates.</p><p>These increases risk worsening the supply-demand imbalance in private rental markets. Smaller landlords, already pressured by higher taxes and changing regulations, may choose to exit rather than absorb additional costs&mdash;reducing supply and potentially
    increasing rents.<strong></strong></p><p><strong>High Value Council Tax Surcharge</strong></p><p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1764248701/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Budget-Roundup-1.jpg" /></p><p>A new surcharge of between &pound;2,500 and &pound;7,500 per annum from 2028 is perhaps the least painful of the mansion tax proposals mooted in the run-up to the Budget but still targets a sector of the market which has seen continued hikes in taxations
    and stagnation in prices over the past decade. While it may cause some existing homeowners to consider downsizing the likelihood of it making a significant difference to buyers&rsquo; behaviour are limited. <br /></p><p><strong>Key details</strong></p><ul><li>Expected to raise around &pound;430 million per year (Council Tax revenues top &pound;40 billion)</li><li>Takes effect in April 2028 and based on the value of properties in 2026. </li><li>A public consultation on the details relating to the surcharge, including reliefs and exemptions is planned for early next year.</li><li>Homeowners, not tenants, will be liable for the surcharge (different from Council Tax which is payable by the occupier). </li><li>The Valuation Office will conduct a targeted valuation to identify properties above &pound;2 million, with revaluations conducted every five years.</li><li>Revenue will be collected alongside Council Tax but will go directly into central government coffers.</li></ul><p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1764248701/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Budget-Roundup-2.jpg" /></p><p>The impact falls disproportionately on London and the South East, which accounted for 90% of &pound;2 million plus sales last year. Previous mansion tax proposals in 2014 aimed to raise &pound;1.2 billion through similar measures, averaging &pound;11,000 per property annually&mdash;nearly three times the current HVCTS rate.</p><p>It is also worth noting that London boroughs with some of the highest proportion of &pound;2 million plus homes also have some of the lowest council tax. A &pound;2 million Wandsworth property owner facing the additional &pound;2,500 charge currently pays &pound;1,210 annually in Band E council tax. Compare this to a Band E home in Nottingham&mdash;likely below the HVCTS threshold&mdash;where owners pay &pound;3,246 in council tax. The total bill difference narrows to just &pound;464.</p><p><strong>Other things to watch</strong></p><ul><li>Early 2026 consultation on replacing the Lifetime ISA with a simpler product&mdash;particularly relevant to London given the &pound;450,000 limit.</li><li>Consultation on potential changes to VAT rules for land intended for social housing. &nbsp;</li><li>Warm Homes Plan &ndash; an additional &pound;1.5bn to help homeowners improve the energy efficiency of their properties.</li><li>Roll back on potential changes to landfill tax &ndash; thankfully avoiding further costs for viability stretched developers.</li></ul><p><strong>Moving forward</strong></p><p>With the Budget concluded and no major fiscal events planned for a year, greater certainty should help restart market activity. If markets continue responding positively, we could see rates drop more rapidly, easing debt cost burdens across the sector. But to fulfil the government&rsquo;s ambition of building 1.5 million homes we&rsquo;ll need to see more on increasing delivery, improving viability, and demonstrating clear and sustained demand for homes across all sectors of the UK housing market.</p><p><strong>JLL Research</strong></p><p>JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare and student housing. </p><h5>Disclaimer: &copy; 2025 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.</h5>

Residential Roundup - 27 November

Discover the latest insights from Marcus Dixon in this week's Budget Special Residential Roundup, as we dive into the Chancellor's housing market impact 

Discover the latest insights from Marcus Dixon in this week's Budget Special Residential Roundup, as we dive into the Chancellor's housing market impact&nbsp;

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JLL PCL Report – Q3 2025

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<p>What Rayner&rsquo;s departure &ndash; triggered by Stamp Duty &ndash; means for property taxes in the autumn Budget is unclear. What is, is the need for good advice. Let&rsquo;s hope for more clarity in the run up to the Budget on 26 November.</p><p><strong>UK economy stagnates</strong></p><p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1755866562/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Sept12-Chart2.jpg" /></p><p>UK GDP appears to be following a similar path this year to last, with stronger growth earlier on in the year petering out over the summer. The latest monthly GDP figures show growth stagnated in July, following a rise of 0.4 per cent in June, taking growth
    in the three monthly to July to 0.2 per cent. Tariffs, employer NI and potential tax changes in the Budget will all be impacting figures here, but it is important to take these monthly GDP figures with a heavy pinch of salt. They are often revised
    and tend to fluctuate month-on-month. <br /></p><p><strong>Bond market headache</strong></p><p>The Chancellor will be acutely aware of recent bond market volatility. Long-dated UK gilts &ndash; essentially IOUs from the government &ndash; hit a 27-year peak in early September, with 30-year gilt yields just shy of 5.7 per cent. But rates have eased
    somewhat since then, with the latest 30-year figure now sitting below 5.45 per cent. </p><p>Rising gilt yields directly increase government's debt servicing costs, creating a challenging fiscal backdrop and increasing the chance of further tax rises and/or spending cuts. This has implication for the housing market too, more directly through
    fixed rates, which are less likely to see any significant reduction while bond yields remain elevated, but also in terms of fiscal headroom. With much hoped for demand side incentives somewhat reliant on a healthier Treasury balance sheet. </p><p>Recent increases in long-dated bond yields aren't solely a UK phenomenon &ndash; other major economies have experienced similar upward movements in recent months. However, there are several UK-specific elements that cannot be overlooked, demonstrated
    by UK gilt yields moving from a middle-ranking position against other G7 nations' 30-year government bonds to amongst the highest.</p><p>While scepticism surrounding persistent inflation and Britain's economic prospects certainly plays a role, the story runs deeper. There's been a marked decline in appetite for long-dated bonds from pension funds and insurers &ndash; traditionally the
    most reliable buyers of government debt. This has left fewer purchasers in the marketplace. Adding to this challenge, recent modifications to UK pension regulations &ndash; ironically introduced to stimulate investment in growth assets &ndash; have
    further dampened demand.</p><p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1755866562/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Sept12-Chart1.jpg" /></p><p><strong>All that glitters</strong></p><p>With an uncertain outlook globally, investors are flocking to safe-haven assets, reflected in the recent rally in gold prices. Spot gold prices exceeded US $3,500 per ounce in early September, with values up by nearly a third so far this year. Comparing
    gold prices with UK housing clearly demonstrates not only the recent outperformance but also the relative value in UK real estate. A decade ago, the average UK home cost the equivalent of 253 ounces of gold, in September with the price of gold exceeding
    &pound;2,600 per ounce the average home could be bought for the equivalent of less than 100 ounces. </p><p><strong>Housing market</strong></p><p>We&rsquo;d expected fewer new mortgage advances in Q2 following the pre-1 April SDLT changes, with gross advances dropping 24 per cent on Q1 levels to their lowest since Q1 2024. Nothing to get too het up about though, as overall activity in H1 was up
    by almost &pound;25bn or 18 per cent on H1 2024. Of greater interest were the new commitments figures (an indicator of future advances), which rallied, having plateaued in Q1. In Q2 more than &pound;78 billion of new lending was agreed, up 15 per
    cent on Q1 and 17 per cent higher than the same period a year earlier. This was the highest quarter since pre-mini budget in Q3 2022.</p><p>The RICS Survey has made for gloomy reading in recent months, and the August edition was no different. The short-term outlook for prices and activity remains downbeat, due in part to the quieter summer period but also increasingly uncertainty around what
    could happen in the Budget. </p><p>Despite many of the key fundamentals being in a stronger position than they have been for some time (more stock, more motivated sellers and more options for borrowers) the temptation to sit on one&rsquo;s hands remains, with Budget speculation doing little
    to tempt buyers out of the long grass. </p><p>It is a similar story for the rental market, with the latest RICS survey reporting demand holding steady with marginally more respondents seeing demand rise than fall. At the same time new landlord instructions remained firmly in negative territory, with
    a net balance of -37 per cent the weakest reported for over five years. With less stock reaching the market respondents were more positive on the outlook for rental growth over prices, with a net balance of +27 per cent of respondents expecting rents
    to rise in the next three months. For prices the short-term outlook was more negative but more still expected prices to rise than fall over the next 12 months.&nbsp;</p><p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1755866562/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Sept12-Chart3.jpg" /></p><p><strong>Renters&rsquo; Rights Bill </strong></p><p>The Renters&rsquo; Right Bill returned to the Commons on 8 September, edging closer to gaining Royal Assent. Most of the amendments suggested by the House of Lords were rejected. Amendments which ended up on the cutting room floor included the ability
    to charge higher deposits for tenants wanting pets, the inclusion of military housing, and the extension of student exemptions to smaller one- and two-bedroom properties. It&rsquo;s now back with the Lords, who&rsquo;ll have another chance to tweak
    the recommendations before returning to the Commons. Expect further back and forth as we keep you updated on progress over the coming weeks.</p><p><strong>New research</strong></p><p>Our residential research team has been busy this summer, with our latest Big Six Residential Development Report, Buyers and Tenants Survey and our Landlord Survey all released in recent weeks. If you missed any of our latest reports <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/insights">click here.</a><br /></p><p><strong>JLL Research</strong></p><h5>JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare
    and student housing. </h5><h5>Disclaimer: &copy; 2025 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as
    to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any
    means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right
    to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.</h5>

Residential Roundup - 12 September

PSG-Holdings

It&rsquo;s been a busy couple of weeks in Westminster. A changing of the Labour guard has seen Angela Rayner depart from her three posts as Deputy Prime Minister, Deputy Labour Party Leader and Housing Secretary.

It’s been a busy couple of weeks in Westminster. A changing of the Labour guard has seen Angela Rayner depart from her three posts as Deputy Prime Minister, Deputy Labour Party Leader and Housing Secretary.

<p>It&rsquo;s been a busy couple of weeks in Westminster. A changing of the Labour guard has seen Angela Rayner depart from her three posts as Deputy Prime Minister, Deputy Labour Party Leader and Housing Secretary. David Lammy takes on the Deputy Prime Minister role, Steve Reed replaces her as Housing Secretary and hustings have begun for the Deputy Leader post.&nbsp;</p>

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Buyers and Tenants Survey Report

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Big Six Residential Report – Summer 2025

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<p>One of the proposals replaces SDLT with a new national tax to be paid by owner occupiers on houses worth more than &pound;500,000 when they sell their home. The proposed levy would vary dependent upon the value of the property, but the complexity of implementation
    would mean it would take years rather than months to phase out the current system. And with a government looking for an increase in income in the short term, it could well find itself back on the shelf.</p><p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1755866562/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Aug22-Chart1.jpg" /></p><p>Many in the industry (including us here at JLL) have been advocating for an overhaul of property taxes for some time now. So, news that in advance of the budget the Treasury is looking at different aspects of property taxation should be welcomed. However,
    the focus on higher value properties, a sector of the market where purchasers are often most discretionary, could lead to some shelving their plans until we have further clarity. Not helpful for an already sluggish market.<br /></p><p><strong>The case for stamp duty reform</strong></p><p>Stamp Duty on residential property added more than &pound;10bn to government coffers in the year to March. But an increase in buying costs has meant fewer homes transacting, bad news for labour mobility and the many industries which rely on an active
    and fully functioning housing market. This is particularly true for London, which accounts for just over 10 per cent of UK sales but more than 40 per cent of SDLT revenues. </p><p>An overhaul of buying costs (SDLT) and holding costs (mainly council tax) is long overdue. But setting new valuation thresholds (effectively valuing every home) has been put in the &lsquo;too difficult&rsquo; pile each time it&rsquo;s been mooted by governments
    of all colours since the first set of 1991 property values were applied.</p><p>The latest idea purportedly under consideration takes inspiration from the work by think-tank Onward, which advocates replacing stamp duty and council tax (in part) with a national property tax for homes valued at more than &pound;500,000. This would
    roll up and be paid once the property was sold. Revenues would be split between local government and the Treasury, with a minimum rate set to mirror revenue currently collected through council tax, effectively shifting the current purchasing cost
    (SDLT) to a sales cost (national tax). An obvious advantage for those purchasing their first home or upsizing but doing little to encourage downsizing.</p><p>Proposals exempt social housing, with tax for tenanted properties paid by the owner rather than the occupier (meaning private landlords with homes valued at over &pound;500,000 would pay rather than the tenant &ndash; albeit likely just added to rent).
    </p><p>The challenge for government will be keeping the Office for Budget Responsibility happy, as the scrapping of SDLT could result in lower revenues in the short term.</p><p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1755866562/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Aug22-Chart2.jpg" /></p><p><strong>Housing market</strong></p><p>All this speculation isn&rsquo;t helpful for a market where buyers remain cautious - the latest residential survey from the RICS painting a gloomy picture for activity in July. Rightmove figures, while still mixed, are a bit more positive, particularly for those vendors willing to be more realistic with their asking prices. There&rsquo;s more stock on the market this year than last, with homes for sale up 10 per cent, a ten-year high. More choice means properties not priced competitively are failing to attract buyers, with more than a third of properties for sale having been reduced in price, the highest for two years. Asking prices dropped 1.3 per cent in August, in line with the usual seasonal trend, albeit following more substantial price cuts in June and July. Asking prices are now almost &pound;10,800 lower than they were last summer.&nbsp; </p><p>But more competitive asking prices are encouraging buyers to commit, with sales agreed in July up 8 per cent on the same period in 2024 and their highest since 2020. </p><p>Latest figures from the ONS put UK house prices 3.9 per cent higher annually in June, up from a revised 2.7 per cent in May. Private rents rose 5.9 per cent in the year to July according to ONS figures, with the rate of growth slowing to levels last seen in early 2023. Rents for new lets remained broadly unchanged over the last 12 months, with Homelet data showing rents 0.4 per cent higher this July than last. </p><p><strong>In other news</strong></p><p>UK inflation rose to 3.8 per cent in July. This was marginally above the 3.7 per cent consensus forecast but in line with the latest Bank of England view, which expects UK inflation to peak at 4 per cent in September. Food, fuel and airfares appear to be the main culprits in July, all of which came in hotter than forecasters had predicted.</p><p>What this means for the rate cutting cycle is far from clear, it likely narrows the odds on a further cut in September, but there will be two further data releases prior to the November meeting, where expectations remain broadly positive for a further 25bps drop.<br /></p><p><strong>JLL Research</strong></p><h5>JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare and student housing. </h5><h5>Disclaimer: &copy; 2025 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.</h5>

Residential Roundup - 22 August

The Autumn Budget is still more than two months off, but the rumour mill is in full swing. Press reports suggest the government is considering a replacement for Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT), a new fairer approach to council tax and a revision to Capital Gains Tax for higher value homes.<strong></strong>

The Autumn Budget is still more than two months off, but the rumour mill is in full swing.

<p><strong>The Autumn Budget is still more than two months off, but the rumour mill is in full swing. Press reports suggest the government is considering a replacement for Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT), a new fairer approach to council tax and a revision to Capital Gains Tax for higher value homes.</strong><strong></strong></p>

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<p>Halifax figures are also showing a 2.4 per cent annual rise in July. Mortgage approvals are rising too, with more than 64,000 mortgages approved in June, activity returning to pre-pandemic norms (when rates were significantly lower than they are now).</p><p><strong>Housing market</strong></p><p>The number of homes sold in June rose 13 per cent on May, with the impact of the 1 April Stamp Duty changes now dissipating.&nbsp; H1 figures show an 18 per cent annual increase in sales nationally, with June sales up 5 per cent year on year.&nbsp; </p><p>Affordability is improving, at least on paper, with the average house price to income ratio hitting a ratio of 5.75 - a ten-year low. This is down from a high of 6.9 in 2022. Although elevated mortgage rates mean affordability remains more challenging
    for those looking to get onto the ladder. </p><p>But sellers are having to be more realistic on price. Latest figures from Rightmove show average asking prices dropped by 1.2 per cent in July, equating to an average &pound;4,500 reduction. A reduction in July isn&rsquo;t unusual but the scale of the
    reduction is, with Rightmove reporting the highest July fall in more than twenty years of data. London saw the highest monthly fall, with asking prices 1.5 per cent lower in July than June. This is driven by central London and follows a similar trend
    to that observed in our latest <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/insights/research/jll-pcl-report-q2-2025">PCL report.</a></p><p><strong>News from the MPC</strong></p><p>The big news of the week was always going to be the Bank Rate.&nbsp; While there were some wobbles, the long-term expectation had always been that August would see a 25bps fall, with the Monetary Policy Committee confirming a lowering of rates to 4 per
    cent on 7 August.&nbsp; </p><p>While the result wasn&rsquo;t really a surprise, there were more hawks than expected this time round, with members of the Monetary Policy Committee only narrowly voting through the 25bps cut through by five votes to four. The remaining four all felt rates
    should remain at 4.25 per cent (with one of the rate cutters initially voting for a 50bps reduction).</p><p>This latest cut is unlikely to be a game changer for mortgage rates, with the August fall all but factored in. That said, effective interest rates on newly drawn mortgages fell for the fourth consecutive month in June, down to 4.34 per cent. Lifetime
    Capital is quoting best-buy rates at sub-3.8 per cent for those borrowers viewed upon most favourably by lenders.&nbsp; </p><p>Consensus forecasts expect one further 25bps cut in 2025 and another in H1 2026, taking us to a 3.5 per cent rate by mid-year 2026.</p><p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1754643912/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Aug8-Chart2.jpg" /></p><p><strong>Bricks versus concrete</strong></p><p>Those in government and those of us in the housebuilding sector will be hoping some of the positivity around lower rates feeds through into the new homes market this autumn.</p><p>In our <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/insights/news/residential-roundup-18-july">last Roundup</a> we discussed the latest Molior figures for London, with delays and additional financial pressures associated with &lsquo;high
    risk&rsquo; buildings and the arduous Gateway process culminating in a drop off in flatted urban development.&nbsp; </p><p>But the challenge isn&rsquo;t just a London one, or indeed just residential. The latest S&amp;P Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) shows a slowdown in activity across their three monitored construction sectors, civil engineering, commercial and residential.
    Respondents cited a lack of tender opportunities and a hesitancy from customers to commit to projects. </p><p>Supply chain figures from the Mineral Products Association (MPA) echo the drop off in delivery. Sales of ready-mixed concrete fell 11.5 per cent in Q2 2025 compared with Q1, are down by a third in the last ten years and are at their lowest, lockdown aside,
    for 63 years. </p><p>Brick deliveries are showing more of a mixed picture. Seasonally adjusted monthly data shows 5 per cent fewer bricks delivered in June than May, but activity was up 16 per cent annually, marginally up on the +15 per cent recorded in May. Deliveries are
    on an upward trajectory, with annual figures the highest for two-years, but we&rsquo;ve still got some way to go to get back to pre-pandemic norms.</p><p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1754643910/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Aug8-Chart1.jpg" /></p><p><strong>JLL Research</strong></p><h5>JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare
    and student housing. </h5><h5>Disclaimer: &copy; 2025 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as
    to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any
    means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right
    to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.</h5>

Residential Roundup - 8 August

After dropping back in June, house prices saw their highest monthly increase for six months in July, with the Nationwide index showing prices rising 2.4 per cent annually, up from 2.1 per cent the previous month.

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Landlord Survey 2025

The 2025 JLL Landlord Survey was conducted to better understand the challenges landlords are currently facing and how these will influence their plans over the short and medium term.

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<p>Markets still appear to be on the side of the doves, expecting a further reduction in the bank rate next month, but recent announcements on the UK economy have muddied the waters.</p><p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1752846331/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-July18-Chart1.png" /></p><p>Inflation, which came in a little hotter than many had expected in June, could trouble the MPC. CPI rose 3.6 per cent, with the three f&rsquo;s: fuel, flights and food all contributing. Yet despite inflation rising, GDP, jobs and wage growth all fell
    back in the latest numbers. Growth in UK GDP, which had shown some promise in Q1 fell for the second consecutive month in May, down 0.1 per cent, following a -0.3 per cent reading in April. Real GDP is still expected to have grown 0.5 per cent in
    the three months to May, albeit much of this is down to a stronger Q1. But the outlook for UK GDP has improved marginally this year, with consensus forecasts expecting 1 per cent growth this year, up from 0.8 per cent in 2024. <br /></p><p>Wage growth dropped back in the latest figures, with average earnings excluding bonuses 5 per cent higher in the three months to May compared with the same period a year earlier. This was lower than the 5.3 per cent recorded in April. The ONS Labour Force
    Survey, which I&rsquo;d approach with caution due to low participation rates at present, showed unemployment rose to 4.7 per cent in the three months to May, up from 4.6 per cent a month earlier.</p><p>Fallout from the rise in employers&rsquo; national insurance, combined with ongoing uncertainty around tariffs and the health of the global economy has seen the number of payrolled staff fall in May, with a 25,000 reduction in May versus April. Yet this
    is lower than previous estimates of more than a 100,000 drop. The latest major announcement was the loss of 500 jobs at Jaguar Land Rover, which posted an 11 per cent reduction in quarterly sales following the pausing of US exports. </p><p>Early estimates suggest we could see a further reduction in June, with the number of payrolled staff expected to be 178,000 lower in June this year than last, or a reduction of 0.6 per cent. This follows a fall in job vacancies for the 36<sup>th</sup> consecutive month, albeit setting aside pandemic disruptions, we remain at or above long run norms.<strong></strong></p><p><strong>News from Mansion House</strong></p><p>In her annual speech to business leaders at Mansion House, the Chancellor&rsquo;s key theme was loosening regulation to turbocharge growth. Much of the emphasis was around supporting our ailing IPO sector and encouraging investment in the UK stock market
    rather than cash ISAs, albeit not as previously trailed limiting the cash ISA allowance (yet).&nbsp;</p><p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1752846331/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-July18-Chart2.png" /></p><p>For the housing market, there was some loosening agreed too. Income thresholds for those applying for certain first-time buyer mortgages will be lowered and more mortgages will be available at over 4.5 times income. A move which is expected to provide
    up to 36,000 additional mortgages to first-time buyers in its first year. In addition, a new mortgage guarantee scheme has been confirmed to ensure the ongoing availability of loans at 90 and 95 per cent loan-to-value to assist prospective buyers
    with lower deposits. &nbsp;<br /></p><p><strong>Where have all the flats gone?</strong></p><p>There was some encouraging news in the latest S&amp;P Purchasing Managers Index. While overall construction activity remained in contractionary territory housebuilding moved into growth territory for the first time since September 2024. </p><p>But an increase in activity, which will be welcomed by a government sticking steadfastly to their 1.5 million homes target, is not evident in our cities. Ongoing viability challenges, particularly around &lsquo;High Risk&rsquo; buildings &ndash; those
    at 18 metres or seven storeys high &ndash; and increasing frustrations with the Gateway process and the Building Safety Regulator mean activity is falling.</p><p>Figures from Molior London show there were fewer than 2,200 private homes started across London in H1 2025, the equivalent of fewer than 5% of the 44,000 private homes target. In the second quarter of 2025, 23 London Boroughs saw no schemes of 20 or more
    private homes start.&nbsp;</p><p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1752846331/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-July18-Chart3.png" /></p><p>But 2025 figures follow recent trends, with activity across London dropping back since the peak in 2015. Analysis of new homes sales shows that there have been 7,500 more sales than starts in the last five years, with the number of homes under construction across Greater London falling by a third in the last five years. This will have implication for future completions, with Molior London expecting fewer than 10,000 private homes will complete in 2027 and 2028 combined.<br /></p><p><strong>JLL Research</strong></p><p>JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare and student housing. </p><h5>Disclaimer: &copy; 2025 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.</h5>

Residential Roundup - 18 July

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As has become customary, anticipation is building in the run-up to the 7 August meeting of the Bank of England&rsquo;s Monetary Policy Committee.

As has become customary, anticipation is building in the run-up to the 7 August meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee.

<p>As has become customary, anticipation is building in the run-up to the 7 August meeting of the Bank of England&rsquo;s Monetary Policy Committee. </p>

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JLL PCL Report – Q2 2025

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<p>Zoopla is reporting sales agreed in the four weeks to mid-June are up 6 per cent annually, but stock levels continue to rise more quickly than demand, meaning increases in activity are not driving significant price rises.</p><p><strong>House prices </strong></p><p>Nationwide's house price index shows prices dipped 0.8 per cent in June compared with May, meaning annual growth in prices dropped back from 3.5 per cent in May to 2.1 per cent last month. Expect to see annual averages increase a little in the coming
    months as the market continues to settle.</p><p>Zoopla reported asking prices rose 1.4 per cent annually in May, with stock on the market up 14 per cent year-on-year. This outpaced new buyer demand, rising by 7 per cent over the same period. Higher value markets saw the most marked increase in stock
    for sale, with activity at the top end of the market more sluggish than at the lower end. Prices in areas where house prices average under &pound;200k rose 2.7 per cent compared with falls of 0.7 per cent in areas where prices top &pound;500k.</p><p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1751631279/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-July4-Chart1.png" /></p><p><strong>Market activity </strong></p><p>Mortgage approvals numbers began to recover in May, rising 3.9 per cent month-on-month on a slow April and 3 per cent higher than May 2024. But these numbers point to a steady rise in activity rather than a significant uptick. Average rates paid on new
    loans fell in May to 4.47 per cent with sub-4 per cent rates now available for both two- and five-year fixes for those with higher deposits. Forecasters are still anticipating up to two further rate cuts this year, taking the bank rate to 3.75% by
    the year end, but uncertainty around swap rates means that we are not expecting to see further significant falls in best buy rates in the near term.</p><p>Following a slow post-SDLT April, transactions recovered in May. Seasonally adjusted figures show there were 25 per cent more sales in May than April, but volumes remained 12 per cent lower than the May figure a year ago.</p><p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1751631279/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-July4-Chart2.png" /></p><p><strong>What does this mean for our outlook? </strong></p><p>The time taken to sell a home (from listing to completion) now exceeds 200 days according to research by TwentyEA. This means homeowners listing their homes today would be expected to pick up the keys to their new home in late January 2026.</p><p>As well as increasing the likelihood of a sale falling through &ndash; time is often the killer of deals - this means that prices achieved on completion for homes in 2025 will largely reflect offers already accepted by vendors. As a result, even if we see a pick-up in activity later in the year, with more competitive mortgage rates and improved buyer confidence increasing activity, this uptick will be reflected in the 2026 rather than 2025 stats.</p><p>Our forecasts for this year, made back in November, were for a gradual recovery in prices, aided by more competitive mortgage rates and political certainty following a Labour majority at the General Election. While the benefits of a strong majority have been tested in recent weeks and the outlook for the UK economy remains underwhelming, the housing market continues to follow a path of slow but steady recovery.</p><p>Despite the stamp duty changes muddying the waters more recently, we are leaving our current forecasts for 3.5 per cent annual growth in UK prices in 2025 unchanged. Similarly, our expectations that higher value markets would lag in 2025 are still evident in the latest house price data, meaning we still expect that price growth in London will be more modest, rising by 2.5 per cent in 2025.</p><p><strong>A different story in Central London </strong></p><p>The only market where we are revising our 2025 forecast is Central London. Ongoing uncertainty around government plans to tax (or not) non-doms on their global assets means fewer prospective buyers at the top end of the market this summer. Here at JLL we've seen 8 per cent fewer new applicants registering with our offices in Q2 this year versus last, with LonRes data showing the numbers of sales so far this year at &pound;5million or more are down 14 per cent and &pound;10million plus sales down 20 per cent.</p><p>Sold prices (excluding new homes) fell 3.9 per cent annually across Prime Central London in Q2 2025, meaning our expectations for 3 per cent growth by the year end is increasingly unlikely. Additional tax liabilities for overseas buyers and those buying additional properties from April, alongside ongoing uncertainty around the non-dom regime, are all impacting buyer appetite. A U-turn on the exposure of non-doms' global assets to UK inheritance tax could help, but many will be waiting for further clarity before making their decision to stay, go or relocate. In the meantime, buyers remain cautious and stock levels in the second-hand market, up 13 per cent annually, are outstripping demand.</p><p>Relative scarcity of stock in the new homes market in central London means we are not seeing any notable reduction in prices, but activity remains skewed towards owner-occupiers and needs-based purchasers rather than investors, with sales volumes lower than historic norms.</p><p>We expect some markets - particularly those neighbourhoods more reliant upon high-net-worth overseas buyers - will see prices end the year lower than they started, but others could see small single digit annual increases this year. This means overall we expect prices to be flat in 2025, with growth of 2 per cent forecast in 2026.</p><p>The slowdown in rental growth experienced across most UK markets is following the path we forecast in November, so we'll be maintaining our current forecast for growth nationally of 3.0 per cent in 2025.</p><p><strong>JLL Research</strong></p><p><em>JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare and student housing. </em></p><em></em><p><em>Disclaimer: &copy; 2025 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.</em></p>

Residential Roundup - 4 July

Three months on from the March stamp duty deadline and the housing market is gradually emerging from the SDLT fog. Zoopla is reporting sales agreed in the four weeks to mid-June are up 6 per cent annually, but stock levels continue to rise more quickly than demand, meaning increases in activity are not driving significant price rises.

Three months on from the March stamp duty deadline and the housing market is gradually emerging from the SDLT fog. 

<p>Three months on from the March stamp duty deadline and the housing market is gradually emerging from the SDLT fog. </p>

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<p>This wasn&rsquo;t unexpected, with the impact of higher energy costs alongside annual increases in council tax and rail fares contributing to the 3.5 per cent rise.</p>
<p>The optimist&rsquo;s view is that this could be short lived though, with Ofgem announcing a 7 per cent reduction in the energy price cap between July and September this year, compared to a 6 per cent rise in the three months to June.&nbsp;</p>
<p>Higher than expected CPI figures follow news that the UK economy grew by 0.7 per cent in Q1 2025, above the 0.6 per cent forecast and 0.1 per cent recorded in Q4 2024. But policy change, both domestically and internationally, means the path for the remainder
    of 2025 is far from clear, with the impact of employer NI and tariffs still to play out in the GDP figures in the coming months.</p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1748531146/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-May30-Chart1.jpg" /></p>
<p><strong>Housing market</strong></p>
<p>The post-stamp duty change hangover appears to have been short lived, with the latest figures from Zoopla showing the number of sales agreed in May at their highest level for four years and up 6% on 2024. Sellers are returning to the market too, with
    new listings up 6% and stock on the market 13% higher than at the same point a year ago. </p>
<p>The latest ONS figures for March show average UK house prices rose 6.4 per cent annually to &pound;271,000, equating to a &pound;16,000 increase on March 2024. First time buyer prices rose 7.1 per cent, outpacing growth for home movers (5.4 per cent).
    Although it is worth noting the impact of the 1 April stamp duty change on these figures. </p>
<p>For rents, the ONS Private Rents Index showed an annual increase in rents of 7.4 per cent in the 12 months to April 2025. This is down from 7.7 per cent in March but continues to remain elevated compared with new let indicators, with April figures from
    Homelet up just 0.3 per cent annually.&nbsp;</p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1748531146/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-May30-Chart2.jpg" /></p>
<p><strong>Time to rethink incentives? </strong></p>
<p>The government has made clear commitments to building more homes and improving the quality and efficiency of our existing housing stock. However, the responsibility for building this stock lies predominantly with housebuilders, who have responsibilities
    to their shareholders and need to ensure there is a market for any homes they deliver. Whether that be for open market sale, investment, or sales to affordable housing providers. </p>
<p>The cost to improve existing stock also lies (a few government subsidies aside) with property owners. Whether that be housing associations or other social housing providers, who need to improve stock without any demonstrable increase in rents, or owners
    in the private sector.</p>
<p>The government has clear ambitions to achieve a blanket EPC C+ rating for the private rented sector and social housing, but if we are serious about encouraging and rewarding improvements, we&rsquo;ll need to rethink how we approach this going forward.
</p>
<p>New homes are already a step ahead, with 97% of new homes delivered having an EPC of C or above, with 86% rated A or B in Q1 2025.&nbsp; This compares with 6% EPC A or B and 52% EPC C for existing homes. </p>
<p>To encourage purchasers to buy new and more energy efficient homes, or to reward homeowners for investing in improving the energy efficiency of their homes should we be offering Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) incentives to encourage activity and improvements?</p>
<p>Cutting SDLT by 50% for A or B rated properties, and by 25% for those rated C could provide a clear incentive for buyers and rewards sellers too. Those bringing homes to market at EPC C or above may be more likely to attract buyers due to lower running
    costs and reduced purchase costs. </p>
<p><strong>What difference could this make? </strong></p>
<p>If implemented, a first-time buyer purchasing a home at &pound;500,000 could save &pound;5,000 buying an EPC A or B rated home, with home-movers paying &pound;7,500, compared with &pound;15,000 for a home rated D or below. Perhaps a harder sell for government
    would be applying this to investors too, but if we are looking to improve the quality and efficiency of our rental stock offering the same reduction in SDLT would further encourage the purchase of more efficient homes. An investor buying a &pound;500,000
    EPC A or B rated property would still be paying four times the SDLT of a first-time buyer, but saving &pound;20,000 compared with an EPC D home.&nbsp;</p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1748531146/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-May30-Chart3.jpg" /></p>
<p><strong>But what about the black hole? </strong></p>
<p>We understand that discussions on tax breaks at a time when government finances are increasingly stretched could be challenging.&nbsp; However, even if stamp duty take per property fell, more activity means the difference between overall receipts may
    not be as significant. Indeed, encouraging activity in the housing market brings in far more revenue than SDLT alone, providing a boost for the wider economy as well as helping to deliver more better-quality homes. We&rsquo;ll hopefully know more
    following the June Spending Review, but in the meantime, we hope that the Government are considering demand and as well as supply when thinking about how to deliver more homes.</p>
<p><strong>JLL Research</strong></p>
<p>JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare
    and student housing. </p>
<p>Disclaimer: &copy; 2025 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as
    to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any
    means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right
    to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.</p>

Residential Roundup - 30 May

UK inflation, which had been coming in below forecast earlier this year, spiked according to the latest April figures.

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<p>This wasn&rsquo;t unexpected, with the impact of higher energy costs alongside annual increases in council tax and rail fares contributing to the 3.5 per cent rise.</p><p>The optimist&rsquo;s view is that this could be short lived though, with Ofgem announcing a 7 per cent reduction in the energy price cap between July and September this year, compared to a 6 per cent rise in the three months to June.&nbsp;</p><p>Higher than expected CPI figures follow news that the UK economy grew by 0.7 per cent in Q1 2025, above the 0.6 per cent forecast and 0.1 per cent recorded in Q4 2024. But policy change, both domestically and internationally, means the path for the remainder
    of 2025 is far from clear, with the impact of employer NI and tariffs still to play out in the GDP figures in the coming months.</p><p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1748531146/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-May30-Chart1.jpg" /></p><p><strong>Housing market</strong></p><p>The post-stamp duty change hangover appears to have been short lived, with the latest figures from Zoopla showing the number of sales agreed in May at their highest level for four years and up 6% on 2024. Sellers are returning to the market too, with
    new listings up 6% and stock on the market 13% higher than at the same point a year ago. </p><p>The latest ONS figures for March show average UK house prices rose 6.4 per cent annually to &pound;271,000, equating to a &pound;16,000 increase on March 2024. First time buyer prices rose 7.1 per cent, outpacing growth for home movers (5.4 per cent).
    Although it is worth noting the impact of the 1 April stamp duty change on these figures. </p><p>For rents, the ONS Private Rents Index showed an annual increase in rents of 7.4 per cent in the 12 months to April 2025. This is down from 7.7 per cent in March but continues to remain elevated compared with new let indicators, with April figures from
    Homelet up just 0.3 per cent annually.&nbsp;</p><p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1748531146/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-May30-Chart2.jpg" /></p><p><strong>Time to rethink incentives? </strong></p><p>The government has made clear commitments to building more homes and improving the quality and efficiency of our existing housing stock. However, the responsibility for building this stock lies predominantly with housebuilders, who have responsibilities
    to their shareholders and need to ensure there is a market for any homes they deliver. Whether that be for open market sale, investment, or sales to affordable housing providers. </p><p>The cost to improve existing stock also lies (a few government subsidies aside) with property owners. Whether that be housing associations or other social housing providers, who need to improve stock without any demonstrable increase in rents, or owners
    in the private sector.</p><p>The government has clear ambitions to achieve a blanket EPC C+ rating for the private rented sector and social housing, but if we are serious about encouraging and rewarding improvements, we&rsquo;ll need to rethink how we approach this going forward.
    </p><p>New homes are already a step ahead, with 97% of new homes delivered having an EPC of C or above, with 86% rated A or B in Q1 2025.&nbsp; This compares with 6% EPC A or B and 52% EPC C for existing homes. </p><p>To encourage purchasers to buy new and more energy efficient homes, or to reward homeowners for investing in improving the energy efficiency of their homes should we be offering Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) incentives to encourage activity and improvements?</p><p>Cutting SDLT by 50% for A or B rated properties, and by 25% for those rated C could provide a clear incentive for buyers and rewards sellers too. Those bringing homes to market at EPC C or above may be more likely to attract buyers due to lower running
    costs and reduced purchase costs. </p><p><strong>What difference could this make? </strong></p><p>If implemented, a first-time buyer purchasing a home at &pound;500,000 could save &pound;5,000 buying an EPC A or B rated home, with home-movers paying &pound;7,500, compared with &pound;15,000 for a home rated D or below. Perhaps a harder sell for government
    would be applying this to investors too, but if we are looking to improve the quality and efficiency of our rental stock offering the same reduction in SDLT would further encourage the purchase of more efficient homes. An investor buying a &pound;500,000
    EPC A or B rated property would still be paying four times the SDLT of a first-time buyer, but saving &pound;20,000 compared with an EPC D home.&nbsp;</p><p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1748531146/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-May30-Chart3.jpg" /></p><p><strong>But what about the black hole? </strong></p><p>We understand that discussions on tax breaks at a time when government finances are increasingly stretched could be challenging.&nbsp; However, even if stamp duty take per property fell, more activity means the difference between overall receipts may not be as significant. Indeed, encouraging activity in the housing market brings in far more revenue than SDLT alone, providing a boost for the wider economy as well as helping to deliver more better-quality homes. We&rsquo;ll hopefully know more following the June Spending Review, but in the meantime, we hope that the Government are considering demand and as well as supply when thinking about how to deliver more homes.</p><p><strong>JLL Research</strong></p><p>JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare and student housing. </p><p>Disclaimer: &copy; 2025 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.</p>

Discover the latest market insights from Marcus Dixon in this week's Residential Roundup

<p>UK inflation, which had been coming in below forecast earlier this year, spiked according to the latest April figures. <strong> </strong></p>

Prime Central London Report - Q1 2025

The JLL Q1 2025 Prime Central London Report tracks activity across the central London housing market. The report incorporates the results of our quarterly JLL Prime Central London Index.

<p>The JLL Q1 2025 Prime Central London Report tracks activity across the central London housing market. The report incorporates the results of our quarterly JLL Prime Central London Index.</p>

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Unpacking the Renters Reform Bill: Key Insights for Landlords and Tenants

houseprices

<p>Discover key insights on the UK's Renters Reform Bill from JLL's Lucy Morton. Learn how changes in fixed-term tenancies, rent increases, evictions, and more will impact landlords and tenants. Essential reading for anyone in the private rental sector.</p>

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<p>The negative reaction to the tariffs rippled through the money markets. Trillions of dollars were wiped off the value of global stocks, but news of a pause saw the markets breathe a sigh of relief, with single-day gains of 9.5 per cent for the S&amp;P
    500 and 12 per cent for the tech-heavy Nasdaq, although worth noting still not back to their pre-'Liberation Day' highs. Similar rebounds occurred across the Asian markets, and closer to home, the FTSE 100 rose 6 per cent, but remains 5 per cent lower
    than on 1 April.</p><p>The pausing of variable tariffs arguably has less of a direct impact on the UK, as in essence we are in the same position here as we were before 9 April. The UK's more passive approach over the last week should curry favour with the White House, with
    much pinned on the potential for further negotiations in the coming days and weeks. But arguably some of the UK's 'advantage' in being a lower tariff trading partner could be watered down; we'll need to see how negotiations pan out. </p><p><strong>What does this all mean for the UK economy and housing market? </strong></p><p>There was better news on the state of the UK economy in February, with monthly GDP growth of 0.5 per cent, up from 0 per cent in January. But economically February seems a long time ago, with the wider impact of tariffs, employer NI and increases in utility
    bills and council tax all likely to impact GDP figures in the coming months.</p><p>US tariffs, whatever numbers are eventually settled on, are likely to have a negative impact on growth for economies outside the US &ndash; and possibly for the US too. Inflation rates outside the US could drop back as exports become more expensive and
    goods previously destined for the US find their way to more tariff-friendly shores. Whatever happens, the &pound;9.9bn headroom from the Spring Statement looks set to be challenged, meaning further tweaks to taxation could be on the cards at the next
    fiscal event in the autumn. But as the last seven days have proven, a week is a long time in politics (and economics), so we'll need to wait and see what the ramifications are for the UK in the longer term.</p><p><strong>Mortgage rates drop</strong></p><p>Tariff-induced uncertainty has impacted bond yields and the interbank lending rate, with two-year swaps at their lowest level since Liz Truss was in No.10. This means forecasters now expect the Monetary Policy Committee could reduce the bank rate up to
    four times this year, up from a consensus forecast of just two rate cuts back in March.</p><p>Mortgage lenders have reacted, with Barclays, TSB, and Coventry Building Society amongst others cutting rates by more than 25 bps, with best-buy two and five-year fixed rates now available at sub 4%. This could prove positive for the UK government too,
    with lower debt servicing costs if rates fall more quickly than anticipated.</p><p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1743090226/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Apr11-Chart1.jpg" /></p><p><strong>Housing market</strong></p><p>In the short term at least, it is likely that the 1 April Stamp Duty deadline will have contributed more to the Q2 outlook for the housing market than tariffs. Figures from the Nationwide suggest house prices were 3.9 per cent higher in March than they
    were a year earlier, with growth flat compared with February. Halifax were a little more downbeat, with prices down 0.5 per cent month-on-month and up 2.8 per cent annually.</p><p>The latest survey from the RICS released this week remained gloomy. New buyer demand dropped back in March, with a net balance of -32 per cent of respondents reporting a drop in new buyer demand, down from -16 per cent the previous month.</p><p>As is often the case following an increase in Stamp Duty costs, expectations on activity in the short term remain subdued, with more respondents (a net balance of -18 per cent) expecting fewer agreed sales in Q2.</p><p>More agents reported an increase in stock reaching the market, but this had also dropped back, with a net balance of +6 per cent in March compared with an average of +17 per cent average over the last six months. This is all impacting the short-term outlook
    for prices, with a higher proportion of agents expecting prices will fall over the next three months. But looking at the next 12 months, some positivity remains, with +39 per cent of respondents expecting prices would be higher in 12 months' time.</p><p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1743090226/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Apr11-Chart2.jpg" /></p><p><strong>Rental market</strong></p><p>The outlook was more positive for the rental market. Tenant demand is increasing as we move into the Spring, with the March RICS survey reporting a net balance of +20 per cent of agents who had seen tenant demand rise in Q1, with expectations on rental increases also remaining in positive territory at a net balance of +31 per cent. Stock levels remain constrained, with a net balance of 24 per cent of agents reporting a drop in new landlord instructions. Homelet data shows average UK rents for new lets rose to &pound;1,288 per month in March, up 1 per cent on February. Average rents on new lets were 2.0 per cent higher in London and 3.5 per cent higher in the rest of the UK on an annual basis.</p><p><strong>JLL Research</strong></p><p>JLL is a leading global professional services firm specialising in real estate and investment management, with $16.6bn annual revenue in 2020, operations in over 80 countries and a global workforce of over 90,000.&nbsp; With over 7,000 employees and 15 offices in the UK, we support our investor, developer, and occupier clients at every stage of the property lifecycle across both commercial and residential asset classes. This includes land purchase, access to capital, planning, development advisory, leasing, building management and sales. </p><p>JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare and student housing. </p><p>Disclaimer: &copy; 2025 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.</p><p></p>

Residential Roundup - 11 April

News that the first Universal theme park in Europe would be built in Bedfordshire was not the biggest roller coaster announcement this week. That accolade was reserved for Trump's tariffs.

<p><strong>News that the first Universal theme park in Europe would be built in Bedfordshire was not the biggest roller coaster announcement this week. That accolade was reserved for Trump's tariffs. At the time of writing (an important caveat right now), the US has announced a 90-day 'pause' on implementing variable tariffs on all countries bar China. </strong><strong></strong></p>

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<p>There was better news beyond 2025, with the OBR upgrading their outlook for GDP growth from 2026 onwards, averaging 1.75 per cent per annum from 2026 to 2029. Fiscal headroom is expected to be restored to just shy of &pound;10bn by 2029/30, albeit still
    tight in historic terms, leaving the door open for further tax hikes, or at the very least tweaks, later in the year.</p><p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1743090226/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Mar27-Chart.jpg" /></p><p><strong>Inflation comes in below expectation at 2.8 per cent</strong></p><p>In what must have been welcome news for Labour&rsquo;s front bench the latest inflation figures, released on the day of the Spring Statement, showed CPI dipping below 3 per cent to a lower than forecast 2.8 per cent in February. Core inflation (the measure
    which strips out food and energy) also defied expectations as it dropped back from 3.7 per cent in January to 3.5 per cent. </p><p>The OBR forecast that inflation will be higher than it previously expected this year, with 2025 CPI now expected to average 3.25 per cent, 60bps higher than the October forecast &ndash; a result of higher than anticipated rises in the cost of energy and
    food.
</p><p>The jury is still out on what this means for the next meeting of the MPC &ndash; remember they chose to hold rates at the last one &ndash; but we expect that a further two to three 25bps cuts could still be on the cards in 2025. </p><p><strong>Housing as a driver of growth</strong></p><p>There were more namechecks for housing than we&rsquo;d expected in the Spring Statement, cementing housebuilding&rsquo;s role in Labour&rsquo;s growth plans. We were already aware of some of the government&rsquo;s announcements, including an additional
    slug of funds for affordable housing and money to support recruitment and training for the under-resourced construction sector, but the OBR view on the impact of planning reform made for interesting reading, too. </p><p><strong>Building the construction workforce (&pound;600m)</strong></p><p>Combining government ambitions to build more homes with the considerable work underway to retrofit UK housing stock and rectify building safety has left the UK construction workforce stretched, before we even consider the significant increase in activity
    needed to get close to the Government&rsquo;s 1.5 million homes target. But our construction workforce is ageing and set to shrink further at a time when demand is rising. </p><p>To stem this Rachel Reeves has announced a &pound;600m investment in training the construction workers of the future. This investment is intended to provide 60,000 additional construction workers by 2029. The creation of a new Constructions Skills Mission
    Board will be set up to oversee the plans, with funds also being allocated for 10 new technical colleges and &pound;165m earmarked for existing colleges to enable them to deliver more construction courses. </p><p><strong>More money for affordable housing (&pound;2bn)</strong></p><p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1743177166/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Mar27-Chart3.jpg" /></p><p>A &pound;2bn top up for affordable housing was announced pre-Spring Statement. The money is earmarked to provide an additional 18,000 affordable and social homes, equating to just over &pound;111,000 per property. The &pound;2bn follows two recent top
    ups totalling &pound;800m and is intended to provide a bridge between the 2021-2026 Affordable Housing Programme and the new grant funding scheme set to be announced at the spending review in June. <br /></p><p><strong><em>Touching distance</em></strong><strong> of 1.5 million homes&hellip;</strong></p><p>The OBR report provided some punchy forecasts for housing delivery, albeit coming with some degree of uncertainty and a fair few caveats. Revisions to the National Planning Policy Framework is expected to permanently increase the level of real GDP by
    0.2 per cent by 2029/30 and boost housebuilding by 170,000 homes over the next five years. </p><p>OBR forecasts five-year UK-wide net additions ranging from 1.2 million (its low scenario) to 1.3 million (its high). Although worth noting this not only falls short of the 1.5 million target, but also that the target (1.5m) applies to England only. With
    England accounting for around 85% of UK net additions this suggests we could see between 1 million and 1.1 million homes delivered against the 1.5 million target. </p><p>More work needs to be done to unlock housebuilding, and while planning reform is part of that solution we&rsquo;re holding out (and calling) for more demand side stimulus at the Spending Review in June. <br /></p><p><strong>JLL Research</strong></p><p>JLL is a leading global professional services firm specialising in real estate and investment management, with $16.6bn annual revenue in 2020, operations in over 80 countries and a global workforce of over 90,000.&nbsp; With over 7,000 employees and 15
    offices in the UK, we support our investor, developer, and occupier clients at every stage of the property lifecycle across both commercial and residential asset classes. This includes land purchase, access to capital, planning, development advisory,
    leasing, building management and sales. </p><p>JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare
    and student housing. </p><p>Disclaimer: &copy; 2025 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as
    to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any
    means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right
    to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.</p>

Residential Roundup - 27 March

Entering government Rachel Reeves committed to just one fiscal event a year. Yet in the run up to this Spring Statement it felt more like a mini budget as we braced for the Office for Budget Responsibility end-of-term report on the UK economy.&nbsp;

Entering government Rachel Reeves committed to just one fiscal event a year. Yet in the run up to this Spring Statement it felt more like a mini budget as we braced for the Office for Budget Responsibility end-of-term report on the UK economy. 

<p><strong>Entering government Rachel Reeves committed to just one fiscal event a year. Yet in the run up to this Spring Statement it felt more like a mini budget (hopefully not like the last one) as we braced for the Office for Budget Responsibility end-of-term report on the UK economy.&nbsp;</strong></p><p><strong>Conditions are looking a little gloomier, at least in the short term. The outlook for UK GDP growth was cut from 2 per cent to 1 per cent for 2025. But the OBR had until now been more bullish on UK GDP than many other forecasters, with the consensus forecast on 2025 GDP growth sitting at 1.1 per cent pre-statement, closer to the revised OBR view.</strong><strong></strong></p>

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<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1741365078/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Mar7-Chart1.jpg" /></p><p><strong>Transactions</strong></p><p>The SDLT rush is evident in transactions figures, with just over 95,000 homes changing hands in January across the UK, 14% higher than the same month a year earlier. This is the highest January figure since 2022 and marginally up on the 10-year January
    average. </p><p><strong>House prices</strong></p><p>The impact on house prices is less clear cut. Figures from the Nationwide index show house prices rose 3.9% in the year to February 2025, up 0.4 percentage points month-on-month. The Halifax index shows a marginal slowing in February, with prices down
    0.1% monthly and up 2.9% annually. But we could see the rate of growth fall a little in March. More first-time buyers, who are generally purchasing smaller (and often less expensive) homes, means we could see the overall average fall in March and
    potentially rise in April &ndash; as a result it remains prudent to not place too much emphasis on monthly fluctuations in prices this spring.</p><p><strong>Mortgage approvals </strong></p><p>The pre-SDLT rush was evident earlier in the mortgage stats, with the time taken to complete a sale meaning those wanting to beat the deadline would need to have been well progressed by early 2025. In late 2024 we saw annual increases in net mortgage
    lending almost 50% higher than they were a year earlier. True, 2023 wasn&rsquo;t a busy year, but the acceleration in activity was particularly evident in Q4.&nbsp; Lower rates helped, but first-time buyers were busy with their brokers too. The latest
    numbers from the Bank of England show mortgage approvals rose 19% annually in January 2025, with UK Finance showing a 16.4% annual increase in loans to first-time buyers in Q3 2024.</p><p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1741365078/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Mar7-Chart2.jpg" /></p><p><strong>The death of leasehold?</strong></p><p>Commonhold isn&rsquo;t new; it was introduced back in 2004 as part of the Commonhold and Leasehold Reform Act 2002, but most new developments completed since continued to adopt a leasehold ownership structure. This looks set to change, with the Government publishing a White Paper proposing replacing leasehold with commonhold for new flatted developments (the sale of new leasehold houses has already been stopped). A consultation on how this could be introduced is set to take place in the coming months. Under a commonhold ownership structure, homeowners would effectively own the freehold of their individual unit, with the freehold of the building held by the building&rsquo;s commonhold association. Each owner would be a member of their building&rsquo;s commonhold association and would be expected to contribute to overall maintenance and running costs, similar to a leasehold service charge. No ground rent would be payable. Plans are afoot, too, to make it simpler for existing owners of leasehold properties to convert to commonhold, although this is a more challenging prospect than imposing the new structure on new build homes. </p><p><strong>Big Six </strong></p><p>The latest data from Zoopla shows annual rental growth fell from 3.9% in Q4 2024 to 3.0% in their latest Q1 release. The lowest level for more than three years, it follows a significant increase in rents over that period. This &lsquo;normalisation&rsquo; in the rental market has been evident for some time. Stock levels per agent have risen from recent lows but are still down on pre-pandemic norms. There are still 12 enquiries for every rental home according to Zoopla, with the number of homes to rent per agent averaging 13 in February 2025, up from a low of 10 in 2023, but still below the longer run average of 16 between 2017 and 2021. </p><p>Our recently released JLL Big Six Residential Development Report shows a similar trend.&nbsp; The report tracks changes in prices and rents across mainstream and prime developments in six cities outside London: Birmingham, Bristol, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Leeds and Manchester.</p><p>Average annual rental growth across the Big Six stands at 4.2%. New stock coming to the market continues to demand higher rents, however more balance between supply and demand has meant average growth returning to single digits in all six cities.</p><p>Interest rates have remained higher than expected and continue to impact development viability and buyers&rsquo; budgets through higher mortgage rates. Average prices for new build apartments have risen 2.1% across the Big Six. Markets with lower average prices, notably Birmingham and Glasgow, have seen the highest price growth.</p><p>After a sharp slowdown in the first half of 2024, the Big Six build-to-rent market had its most active second half since 2021, bringing full-year investment to &pound;1bn. Though reflecting a 12% year-on-year decline, it was a strong finish to 2024.</p><p>To read the latest JLL Big Six report <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/insights/research/big-six-residential-development-report-winter-2024-25">click here.</a></p><p><strong>Build-to-rent and UK living</strong></p><p>It is not just the Big Six where build-to-rent activity rose at the back end of 2024. With &pound;5.4bn invested nationally in 2024, BTR activity was up 9% on 2023. Across all sectors of UK living investment rose 5% year-on-year to &pound;13.9bn. There were more than 230 deals completed in 2024, 16% above the five-year average.</p><p>An uncertain outlook for build and debt costs contributed to drop in forward funding deals, falling 26% below the five-year average, the lowest level since 2018. At the same time, forward purchases and investments in standing stock rose 31%. Domestic investors led the pack, with 44% of total living investment originated in the UK.</p><p>To read more on our outlook for UK living in 2025 <a href="https://www.jll.co.uk/en/trends-and-insights/research/living-outlook-market-dynamics">click here.</a></p>

Residential Roundup - 7 March

The clock is ticking for those looking to take advantage of stamp duty savings before rates revert to previous levels on 1 April. First-time buyers have the biggest incentive, particularly those purchasing more expensive homes.

<p><strong>The clock is ticking for those looking to take advantage of stamp duty savings before rates revert to previous levels on 1 April. First-time buyers have the biggest incentive, particularly those purchasing more expensive homes. The threshold at which first-time buyers no longer benefit from relief drops from &pound;625,000 to &pound;500,000, with the nil rate dropping from &pound;425,000 to &pound;300,000. This means someone purchasing a &pound;500,000 first home would see their stamp duty bill increase from &pound;3,750 in March to &pound;10,000 in April.&nbsp;</strong></p>

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<p>The JLL Big Six Residential Development Report compares activity, prices, and rents across six UK cities outside London: Birmingham, Bristol, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Leeds and Manchester. This report incorporates data from the JLL UK Cities index, comparing
    changes in prices and rents across mainstream and prime developments in each city.</p><p>Average annual rental growth across the Big Six cities stands at 4.2% in December 2024. New stock coming to the market continues to demand higher rents, however more balance between supply and demand has meant average growth returning to single digits
    for all cities.</p><p>Interest rates have remained higher than expected and continue to impact development viability and buyers&rsquo; budgets through higher mortgage rates. Average prices for new build apartments have risen 2.1% across the Big Six. Markets with lower average
    prices, notably Birmingham and Glasgow, have seen the highest price growth.</p><p>After a sharp slowdown in the first half of the year, the Big Six build-to-rent market had its most active second half since 2021, bringing full-year investment to &pound;1bn. Though reflecting a 12% year-on-year decline, it was a strong finish to 2024.
</p><p><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1739942706/resi/gb/PDFs/Big_Six_Residential_Development_Report_-_Winter_24-25.pdf" target="_blank"><button class="Button primary" style="text-align:center;">Click here to read more</button></a></p>

Big Six Residential Development Report - Winter 2024/25

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<p>The &pound;300m injection is forecast to deliver 2,800 homes (equating to roughly &pound;107,000 per home), but recent analysis of the housing waiting list shows the number of households on the list topped 1.33 million at last count (March 2024), up 43,000
    in 12 months. Meaning that to build the 43,000 homes required just to keep the list at 2023 levels would have required &pound;4.6 billion in funding at &pound;107,000 a home. If we look to tackle the 1.33 million households on the waiting list it
    would take 21 years at current affordable housing delivery rates to build enough homes, before we even consider new entrants over that period.</p><p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1739544753/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Feb14-Chart1.jpg" /></p><p><strong>Fiscal headroom disappearing</strong></p><p>The outlook for the UK economy has become more challenging in the last few weeks. The Bank of England cut the base rate (hurrah!) but were pessimistic about the UK&rsquo;s growth prospects. Their expectations for GDP growth in 2025 cut from 1.5% to 0.75%.
    Of course, the Bank are not the only forecasters, with the latest consensus forecasts remaining north of 1%, but we expect to see a more tempered short-term outlook emerge in the coming weeks. </p><p>The Office for Budget Responsibility will deliver their next forecast to parliament on 26 March. The combined effect of weaker economic growth and higher borrowing costs expected to have significantly reduced Rachel Reeves&rsquo; &pound;10bn of fiscal
    headroom.</p><p>But fears of a recession in the second half of 2024 have been allayed by news that UK GDP grew by 0.4% in December, up from 0.1% in November.&nbsp; This means estimates for Q4 2024 have tipped (marginally) into positive territory at 0.1% growth, higher
    than the 0.1% contraction forecasters were expecting in a recent poll by Bloomberg. Annually GDP is estimated to be 1.5% higher in December 2024 than it was a year earlier, with full year estimates lower at 0.8% year-on-year.</p><p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1739544753/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Feb14-Chart2.jpg" /></p><p>Increased construction activity contributed to the latest growth figures.<strong> </strong>Government estimates suggest construction output rose 0.5% in the three months to December 2024 compared with the three months to September. The rise in activity was led by new work, which increased by 1.2%, with repairs and maintenance activity falling marginally by 0.4%. Private new housing was one of the main drivers in the growth in new work, rising 1.3%. Positive news for the sector but still 20% lower than the post-pandemic peak in September 2022.&nbsp;<br /></p> <p><strong>The return of the sub 4% fix</strong></p><p>Both Santander and Barclays have announced new 3.99% fixed rates deals, signalling the return of the sub-4% mortgage which has been absent from the market for a few months now (although with a hefty fee and low loan-to-value). It&rsquo;s hoped that breaching the psychological sub 4% barrier will bring more home movers, who had become accustomed to record low rates, back to the market. </p><p>Fewer home movers have meant the proportion of first-time buyers in the market has risen significantly. UK Finance figures crunched by Halifax show there were more than 340,000 first-time purchases in 2024, up 19% on 2023. First-time buyers accounted for more than half (54%) of mortgaged purchases last year, a record high since the data was first collected back in 2014.&nbsp; </p><p><strong>Latest from the RICS</strong></p><p>The proliferation of lower rates will be good news for activity in the housing market, but in their absence the latest RICS Survey shows a tentative start to the year in January. Activity in the sales market remained broadly flat last month, with the same number of respondents reporting new buyer enquiries rising than falling in January. Here at JLL we&rsquo;re in the (marginally) more positive camp, with data from our offices showing a modest uptick in new applicants registering so far this year, up 6% on the same period in 2024.</p><p>Sellers continue to return to the market, with more respondents (a balance of +25%) reporting an increase in new instructions, higher than the +16% recorded in December. Stock per surveyor rose too, reaching 45 homes in January, up from 41 at the same point a year ago. </p><p>For lettings, tenant demand remained broadly flat, with the balance of opinion at +2% in January, meaning marginally more respondents reported a rise than a fall. Fewer landlord instructions were reported again in January (net balance of -19%), with March 2022 being the last month when we saw a positive net balance recorded. Lack of stock, through fewer landlord instructions, is still expected to underpin further rental growth this year.</p><p><strong>New Towns</strong></p><p>Housing Minister Matthew Pennycook has announced that more than 100 potential sites across England have been submitted to the New Towns Taskforce for consideration. The sites, the majority of which are urban extensions, aim to provide more than 10,000 homes each with the government promising spades in the ground before the end of this parliament. Initial reports suggest the government could green light around 12 schemes, or more than 120,000 homes. But few, if any, of these homes will be delivered within this parliament, meaning their (self-imposed) challenge of building 1.5 million homes remains.</p>

Residential Roundup - 14 February

Angela Rayner has committed another &pound;350 million to address the shortfall of affordable homes. &pound;300m has been signed off to boost the Affordable Homes Programme with a further &pound;50m for the Local Authority Housing Fund.

Angela Rayner has committed another £350 million to address the shortfall of affordable homes. £300m has been signed off to boost the Affordable Homes Programme with a further £50m for the Local Authority Housing Fund.

<p><strong>Angela Rayner has committed another &pound;350 million to address the shortfall of affordable homes. &pound;300m has been signed off to boost the Affordable Homes Programme with a further &pound;50m for the Local Authority Housing Fund. Every little helps for those looking to deliver affordable housing, but the scale of the problem and the years of shortfall in delivery means that further funding will be needed on top.</strong></p>

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<p><strong>Growth taking off? </strong></p><p>Heading out to Davos Rachel Reeves was keen to stress Britain was open for business. And on her return the growth narrative continued, with announcements on the intention to support a third runway at Heathrow and investment in the Oxford Cambridge Growth
    Corridor, which could bring in an additional &pound;78bn for the UK economy by 2035. In addition, Reeves reiterated commitments to rail improvements, new mass transit infrastructure and the regeneration of Old Trafford, potentially including a new
    stadium for Man United &ndash; all of which involve unlocking additional sites for viable housing development. </p><p>To accelerate the timeline for a third runway, planning changes will be pushed through to ensure gaining planning for infrastructure projects becomes simpler and less ponderous. Similar changes have been proposed for our sector, with planning reform sitting
    alongside Labour&rsquo;s ambitious plans for housing delivery. </p><p><strong>UK housing starts subdued</strong></p><p>Released this week, the latest starts and completions figures (for Q3 2024) make for sobering reading, with 37,000 new homes started, 28% lower than the Q3 average pre-pandemic. Starts in the year to September were down 35% on the previous 12 months.
    Completions dropped back too, with 7% fewer in the 12 months to September and a 13% drop annually in Q3. To put these numbers in context, completions across England totalled less than 157,000 in the last 12 months, meaning that if we relied on completions
    alone it would take us more than nine years to get the 1.5 million homes the government has committed to deliver in five.</p><p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1738337351/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Jan31-Chart1.jpg" /></p><p><strong>A similar picture in London</strong></p><p>According to Molior London, the number of homes started across Greater London last year fell 16% on 2023 and were 50% lower than the previous 10-year average. It was a similar story for completions, down 20% on the 10-year average, and planning permissions,
    down 58% on the 10-year and 37% annually<em>.</em>&nbsp; But ending with better news, applications rose annually in 2024, the number of units at application stage up by a third compared with 2023. </p><p><strong>Relaxing the rules on non-dom taxation</strong></p><p>A recent report by New World Wealth and Henley &amp; Partners suggests the UK has seen 26,000 millionaires depart since the start of 2017, with a net outflow of 9,500 in 2024 alone. With many countries now courting footloose high net worths with more
    attractive tax rates, the UK is looking increasingly out of step. Plans to change tax rules around non-doms were initiated under the Conservatives and re-iterated in the Budget, but in a recent interview Rachel Reeves suggests the Government is &lsquo;re-thinking&rsquo;
    it&rsquo;s plans. &nbsp;</p><p>Reeves stated they will be tabling an amendment to the Finance Bill to include a more generous Temporary Repatriation Facility, which enables non-doms to bring money into the UK at a lower tax rate. She also reassured non-doms over double taxation and
    inheritance tax liabilities for those fearing they would become liable for tax in more than one country. </p><p><strong>Prime Central London</strong></p><p>Conflicting messages were coming out of Prime Central London in Q4. Activity rose, with the number of homes changing hands at a 10-year high for fourth quarter sales, but fewer buyers were in the market at the top end and overall prices dipped 4% in 2024
    due in part to fewer higher value homes trading towards the year end. </p><p>As usual the fourth quarter was relatively quiet for the Prime Central London lettings market, but activity was in line with Q4 2023, with 3% fewer new lets agreed. Full year figures show there were almost 4,400 new lets agreed in Prime Central London
    in 2024, 5% higher than 2023. While activity gradually increased during the year, we saw slower growth in rents. The JLL PCL Rental Index shows average annual rental growth cooling over the past two years from a high of 15% annual growth in Q1 2022.
    Rents ended the year 0.4% higher than at the end of 2023. Looking ahead stock levels are lower as we move into Q1 2025, with 15% fewer homes on the market to let than at the end of the third quarter and 8.5% fewer than in the same period a year earlier.</p><p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1738337351/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Jan31-Chart2.jpg" /></p><p><a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/insights/research/prime-central-london-report-q4-2024">Click here </a>to read our latest PCL report.<br /></p> <p><strong>Build-to-rent investment rises in Q4</strong></p><p>Q4 2024 was the most active quarter for build-to-rent investment since 2021, marking a significant increase on a lacklustre third quarter. Investment in the fourth quarter totalled &pound;2bn, taking the full year total to &pound;5.4bn. </p><p>Single family housing proved popular with investors, as they acquired 7,000 new rental homes in 2024. However, despite a record year for single family investment, a rise in multifamily in Q4 meant it ended the year marginally higher in overall volumes. Operational stock accounted for the bulk of multifamily transactions, with forward funding accounting for just a fifth of total investment. This is due in part to the fact the sector is maturing, with more stabilised stock to trade, but also reflects continued viability challenges faced by both the build-to-rent and build-to-sell markets. </p>To read more on our latest build-to-rent numbers <a href="https://www.jll.co.uk/en/views/record-year-for-single-family-underpins-btr-investment-in-2024">Click here.</a>

Residential Roundup - 31 January

House prices rose 4.1% in the year to January 2025 according to the latest figures from Nationwide, down from 4.7% in December but still a higher annual growth figure than any other month in 2024.

<p><strong>House prices rose 4.1% in the year to January 2025 according to the latest figures from Nationwide, down from 4.7% in December but still a higher annual growth figure than any other month in 2024. This follows an uptick in mortgage approvals in December, with seasonally adjusted numbers showing a 0.7% rise on November levels and a 28% increase on a slow December 2023. If the MPC lower rates, as expected, at their next meeting on 6 February we could see a further increase in activity in February, although those shopping for fixed rates may find these reductions have already been factored into current deals.</strong></p>

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Prime Central London Report - Q4 2024

The JLL Q4 2024 Prime Central London Report tracks activity across the central London housing market. The report incorporates the results of our quarterly JLL Prime Central London Index.

<p><strong>The JLL Q4 2024 Prime Central London Report tracks activity across the central London housing market. The report incorporates the results of our quarterly JLL Prime Central London Index.</strong></p>

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<p>Latest figures from the Office for National Statistics show inflation fell to 2.5% annually in December, down from 2.6% the previous month, and lower than forecast. Core inflation fell to 3.2%, down from 3.5% in October, and services inflation, at 4.4%,
    was at its lowest since Q1 2022. Economists expected it would drop back to only 4.9%. </p><p>There was some positive news from across the pond, too. Consumer prices rose annually by 2.9% but core inflation, a figure which often influences policy makers&rsquo; decisions on rates dropped to 3.2%.</p><p>The response from the markets has been broadly positive, increasing the probability of further rate cuts when the Bank of England and Federal Reserve rate setters next meet.&nbsp; In the case of the MPC, 6<sup> </sup>February is the date for your diaries.
</p><p><strong>UK Economy</strong></p><p>UK GDP edged up in November, rising by a disappointing 0.1%. The back end of 2024 was slow, with growth weak in Q3 and a plateau forecast in Q4. For 2025 the consensus is for a return to growth, with the outlook more positive at 1.3% compared to 0.9%
    last year. Forecasts, according to Consensus Economics, range from the most optimistic at 1.8%, to the most pessimistic at 0.8%. For 2026 the forecast for growth is the same at 1.3%.</p><p>The labour market remains robust if a little underwhelming. Higher public sector pay and an increase in the minimum wage align with rising private sector real wages, which are expected to support real spending this year.</p><p>That said, challenges remain, with employers facing increased costs coming out of the Autumn Budget: higher national insurance contributions, the rise in the minimum wage and higher business property rates, all of which will likely impact both recruitment
    and inflation over the coming months.</p><p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1737126346/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Jan17-Chart1.png" /></p><p><strong>Mortgage rates</strong></p><p>We expect interest rates to fall, particularly following the latest inflation figures. Indeed, with low inflation and growth lower than the long-term trend, it is hard to see why the MPC wouldn&rsquo;t act. The question remains when. </p><p>We are also facing a global bond sell off that is pushing up benchmark bond yields. Again, we have seen this improve in recent days, but our fiscal situation remains challenging.</p><p>That said, the rapid rise in bond yields has not been mirrored by a similar rise in swap rates, meaning best buy mortgage rates haven&rsquo;t increased quite as much as feared. As we go to press, best buy rates sit at 4.3% for a two-year fix and 4.2%
    for a five-year (both at 75% LTV).</p><p><strong>Prices</strong></p><p>The drop in mortgage approvals in November and rates remaining north of 4% are impacting buyer demand. In the latest RICS survey, more agents were still reporting an increase in new buyer enquiries, but the net balance fell back from +11% in November
    to +5% in December. However, the usual seasonal slowdown could be playing a role here, too.&nbsp; </p><p>November figures from the ONS show average UK house prices rose 3.3% in the year to November 2024. Prices were broadly flat in London, down 0.1% annually, compared with growth of 5.9% in the North East.&nbsp;</p><p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1737126346/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Jan17-Chart2.png" /></p><p><strong>Rents</strong></p><p>December isn&rsquo;t always the best month to take the temperature of the UK rental market. But the ONS rental index is still at near-record levels, averaging 9.0% in December, in line with the 9.1% annual change in November. Achieved rents on new lets show only marginal annual increases, falling to 1.3% across the UK in the year to December according to Homelet. New lets in London saw a modest annual fall of 2.6% in 2024.</p><p>But the outlook for rental growth remains positive, with the latest figures from the RICS suggesting a net balance of +37% of agents expected rents to rise in the next three months, up from +29% last month. This is expected to be driven by lack of stock, with more agents reporting new landlord instructions falling, a net balance of -27% from -13% in November. </p><p><strong>Housebuilding</strong></p><p>Private housebuilding price inflation rose to 3.7%, once again above CPI. Meanwhile, the UK Construction PMI recorded a third consecutive month of housebuilding contraction, in sharp contrast to construction as a whole, which continues to expand.</p><p>But some positive news from the housebuilding sector comes from Persimmon Homes, which reported the number of homes delivered in 2024 was up 7% annually, at the upper end of its expectations for the year.</p><p><strong>Regulatory update</strong></p>The Renters&rsquo; Rights Bill has now completed its passage through the House of Commons and is off to the House of Lords as it inches closer to becoming law. Several amendments were added this week, including a clause restricting landlords from requiring upfront payments of more than one month&rsquo;s rent (alongside a security deposit of five or six weeks&rsquo; rent). We&rsquo;ll be updating you separately on the Renters&rsquo; Rights Bill in the coming days.<p></p>

Residential Roundup - 17 January

Good news on the UK economy has been hard to come by in recent weeks. But lower than forecast inflation figures have raised hopes and resulted in a much-needed positive response from the bond markets, with 30-year bond yields remaining elevated but down from their recent highs.

Good news on the UK economy has been hard to come by in recent weeks. But lower than forecast inflation figures have raised hopes and resulted in a much-needed positive response from the bond markets.

<p><strong>Good news on the UK economy has been hard to come by in recent weeks. But lower than forecast inflation figures have raised hopes and resulted in a much-needed positive response from the bond markets, with 30-year bond yields remaining elevated but down from their recent highs.</strong></p>

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<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1734604013/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Christmas-Chart1.png" /></p><p><strong>More new homes</strong></p><p>The new National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) was introduced as an early Christmas present last week. Housing targets, based on the new approach to housing need first mooted in July, are now mandatory. The word of the day appears to be flexibility,
    with the NPPF confirming that councils will be required to review green belt boundaries if they cannot meet housing need from non-green belt land first. Any land defined as &lsquo;not strongly contributing&rsquo; to the green belt could be brought
    into scope. </p><p>There appears to be more flexibility too on affordable housing targets, with a blanket affordable housing requirements of 50% on some sites proposed in the July draft. New plans look instead at a 15% uplift over the current highest policy requirement,
    with the 50% being used as a cap rather than threshold. </p><p>But planning reform is just one part of the housing delivery puzzle, we&rsquo;ll need a Christmas miracle and plenty more construction elves to ramp up delivery to meet target in the short term.&nbsp;</p><p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1734604013/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Christmas-Chart2.png" /></p><p><strong>Christmas present</strong></p><p>Those hoping to put a new home under the Christmas tree this year will be paying more than they were a year ago.&nbsp; All the key house prices indices are reporting growth. The Nationwide index showing prices have risen 3.7%, the Land Registry 3.4% and Halifax 4.8% in the last 12 months. All marginally higher than our 2024 expectations back in May, with JLL forecasting growth of 2% growth in 2024. </p><p>We are seeing more activity in the sales market. The number of homes sold in October 2024 was the highest since 2020, with the number of sales up 23% on 2023 levels. This follows a similar trend to the one we&rsquo;ve been observing for a few months now, with the number of transactions recorded between April and October 2024 up 11% on the same period a year earlier. Mortgage approvals are on the rise too. With the latest figures for October the highest since 2022. &nbsp;</p><p>For rents the ONS Index, which includes new and existing tenancies, is showing rental growth of 9.1% in the 12 months to November, with Homelet (new lets only) reporting an annual increase of 2.2%.&nbsp;</p><p></p><p><strong>What do we predict for 2025? </strong></p><p><strong>A busy start to Q1</strong></p><p>First-time buyers can save up to &pound;6,250 and existing owner occupiers up to &pound;2,500 in SDLT when buying a &pound;500,000 home before 1 April 2025. Expect a flurry of deals pushed through in Q1 2025 (and a bit of a lull post). But buyers will
    need to get their (ice) skates on to secure a home before the deadline with less than a third of homes going under offer in January traditionally completing before the start of April. </p><p><strong>House prices will rise</strong></p><p>The latest monthly survey from the RICS points to further growth in prices as we move into 2025. Reported as a balance of opinion (a positive balance means more saying they think they&rsquo;ll rise than fall) a net balance of +47% of respondents expected
    prices will rise over the next 12 months, with views on price growth positive for all UK regions.</p><p>Demand appears to be rising too, with a net balance of +12% of agents reporting an increase, the fifth consecutive month posting a positive reading. This is also reflected in the outlook for sales activity, with a net balance of +19% expecting more sales
    over the next three months and +33% over the next 12. </p><p>Here at JLL we expect house prices will rise by 20% over the next five-years, with rents expected to increase 17% over the same period. To read more on our forecasts <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/insights/news/jll-residential-forecast-2025-2029">click here.</a></p><p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1734604013/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Christmas-Chart3.png" /></p><p><strong>Rental growth returns to low single digits</strong></p><p>For lettings, tenant demand remained broadly flat in November, with the RICS reporting a net balance of -1%. This has grabbed some headlines being the first negative reading on tenant demand since 2020. Despite a drop off in demand (to be fair November is never a busy month for lettings) more agents reported a further fall in landlord instructions, meaning the outlook for rental growth remained positive. A net balance of +29% of respondents to the survey expecting rents to rise in early 2025. </p><p><strong>Mortgage rates will fall (a bit)</strong></p><p>Despite average mortgage rates edging up over the last couple of months expectations remain that we&rsquo;ll see further rate cuts as we move into 2025. Five-year swap rates edged down in early December, 44bps lower than they were a year ago and down on recent post-budget highs. As expected, the Monetary Policy Committee held rates at 4.75% at their 19<sup>th</sup> December meeting, but consensus forecasts suggest we should see three further 25bps drops in the bank rate in 2025.&nbsp;</p><p><strong>Mortgage activity increases</strong></p><p>UK Finance have just released their forecasts for 2025.&nbsp; They expect gross mortgage lending will rise 11% next year. Remortgaging is expected to rise 30% with lending for house purchase up 10% to &pound;148 billion. Only new buy-to-let lending is expected to fall, with lending of &pound;9 billion forecast, 7% lower than 2024 levels. But this follows a stronger than expected year for new buy-to-let lending, with borrowing expected to end the year 13% up on 2023 levels. </p><p><strong>Here&rsquo;s to 2025</strong></p><p>That&rsquo;s a wrap on 2024. All that&rsquo;s left is for us to wish you all a very merry Christmas and all the best for 2025 from us here at JLL Residential.</p><p>&nbsp;</p>

Residential Roundup – Christmas 2024

<strong>With the Christmas break in sight this, our last Roundup of 2024, looks back over the year and ahead at what we can expect in 2025.&nbsp;</strong>

With the Christmas break in sight this, our last Roundup of 2024, looks back over the year and ahead at what we can expect in 2025. 

<p><strong>News that stamp duty bills are rising for most buyers from April 1<sup>st</sup> has brought a few more house hunters out in December than usual. But for most minds are elsewhere, meaning that gleaning much from the property tea leaves can be difficult at this time of year. </strong></p><strong></strong><p><strong>With the Christmas break in sight this, our last Roundup of 2024, looks back over the year and ahead at what we can expect in 2025.&nbsp;</strong></p>

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