Billion pound summer forecasted this summer 2021 in UK housing market

We have released new research predicting the UK residential property market’s first ever £100 billion summer.

We have released new research predicting the UK residential property market’s first ever £100 billion summer.

The forecast, which takes the current trajectory of the housing market and applies it to the rest of summer months, estimates that there will be 420,000 sales in the UK across June, July and August at a total spend of a record £107bn

This will make this summer the highest grossing quarter in UK residential market history and is in stark contrast to previous years. Throughout the past half decade, total spend from buyers during the summer months has averaged £69bn-per-year, a figure that comprised of a little over 300,000 sales.

Speaking on the forecast, Nick Whitten, our Head of UK Living Research, said: 

“It is well-documented that the Summer is the best time to sell a home, with sentiment receiving a natural positive boost from the warmer weather. However, our data suggests that this post-lockdown summer will set a new record. The reasons behind the buying bonanza - with the most exchanges and highest total sales value on record – are threefold. The stamp duty extension to the end of June means that during the quarter eager buyers and sellers will look to force a deal through. This, combined with the increased financial stability many buyers are feeling as we unlock from Coronavirus, and the well-documented supply constraints in the UK market, means we can expect to see demand swallowing up available stock, pushing up prices but not to the extent that it will affect transactions.”

The Government has set a clear priority to help more people onto the housing ladder through its Own Your Home campaign. The campaign puts the spotlight on six Government-backed support schemes to allow people to access some form of home ownership.

The forecasted spike in activity this Summer will be particularly evident in the north of England, which is predicted to see circa 100,000 sales – around 25% of the total UK.

Stephen Hogg, our Head of North West and Residential UK Regions said: 

“We have seen the market steadily improve and are fully expecting a further acceleration throughout the Summer.  “North-shoring” is a trend we have seen pre-COVID but even more during and post-COVID with purchasers seeing better value for money in the north.  Regional towns and cities continue to be voted the best places to live in the UK with less congestion and some of the best schooling.  The regional cities are bouncing back quicker, HS2 offers further medium to long term growth prospects coupled with the Government’s levelling up agenda.  Flex working is becoming the norm and therefore the need to live close to the Capital is diminishing.  The historical brain-drain of regional centres seeking high skilled high paid jobs in London is a thing of the past.  With the likes of Manchester, Birmingham, Edinburgh offering opportunities equal to or not available in London they are now attracting a vast talent pool who in turn are boosting the local housing markets.”

Providing a Prime London lens on the research and forecast, Lucy Morton, our Head of Residential Agency, said: 

“London has faced its own unique set of challenges over the past fifteen months. Unsurprisingly the extent of its sudden and vast transformation from a thriving, borderless hub of activity that never slept, to a fully-locked-down ghost town was reflected in a similarly drastic lull in property market activity. 

“Yet despite this, the appeal of London as one of the most vibrant and popular cities of the world has reignited, the shoots of recovery in the capital are looking very green indeed; activity is picking up considerably, and interest – from domestic and international buyers alike – is returning.”

Factors have combined to set up the highest grossing quarter in UK residential market history. Read more on our Spring Forecasts here.

You can find a full breakdown of the year-on-year data cited in the forecasts in the grid below:

Year:Total number of housing salesTotal value of transactions (£)
2016316,000£65bn
2017337,000£72.5bn
2018333,000£75bn
2019317,000£72bn
2020233,000£58bn
2021 (predicted)420,000£107bn