regional-forecasts

Regional Forecasts

<p>We have released new research predicting the UK residential property market&rsquo;s first ever &pound;100 billion summer.<br /></p><p>The forecast, which takes the current trajectory of the housing market and applies it to the rest of summer months, estimates that there will be 420,000 sales in the UK across June, July and August at a total spend of a record&nbsp;<strong>&pound;107bn</strong>.&nbsp;<br /></p><p>This will make this summer the highest grossing quarter in UK residential market history and is in stark contrast to previous years. Throughout the past half decade, total spend from buyers during the summer months has averaged &pound;69bn-per-year, a
    figure that comprised of a little over 300,000 sales.<br /></p><h2><strong>Speaking on the forecast,&nbsp;Nick Whitten, our Head of UK Living Research,&nbsp;said:&nbsp;</strong></h2><p><em>&ldquo;It is well-documented that the Summer is the best time to sell a home, with sentiment receiving a natural positive boost from the warmer weather. However, our data suggests that this post-lockdown summer will set a new record. The reasons behind the buying bonanza - with the most exchanges and highest total sales value on record &ndash; are threefold. The stamp duty extension to the end of June means that during the quarter eager buyers and sellers will look to force a deal through. This, combined with the increased financial stability many buyers are feeling as we unlock from Coronavirus, and the well-documented supply constraints in the UK market, means we can expect to see demand swallowing up available stock, pushing up prices but not to the extent that it will affect transactions.&rdquo;</em></p><p>The Government has set a clear priority to help more people onto the housing ladder through its Own Your Home campaign. The campaign puts the spotlight on six Government-backed support schemes to allow people to access some form of home ownership.</p><p>The forecasted spike in activity this Summer will be particularly evident in the north of England, which is predicted to see circa 100,000 sales &ndash; around 25% of the total UK.</p><h2><strong>Stephen Hogg, our Head of North West and Residential UK Regions&nbsp;said:&nbsp;</strong></h2><p><em>&ldquo;We have seen the market steadily improve and are fully expecting a further acceleration throughout the Summer.&nbsp; &ldquo;North-shoring&rdquo; is a trend we have seen pre-COVID but even more during and post-COVID with purchasers seeing better value for money in the north.&nbsp; Regional towns and cities continue to be voted the best places to live in the UK with less congestion and some of the best schooling.&nbsp; The regional cities are bouncing back quicker, HS2 offers further medium to long term growth prospects coupled with the Government&rsquo;s levelling up agenda.&nbsp; Flex working is becoming the norm and therefore the need to live close to the Capital is diminishing.&nbsp; The historical brain-drain of regional centres seeking high skilled high paid jobs in London is a thing of the past.&nbsp; With the likes of Manchester, Birmingham, Edinburgh offering opportunities equal to or not available in London they are now attracting a vast talent pool who in turn are boosting the local housing markets.&rdquo;</em></p><h2><strong>Providing a Prime London lens on the research and forecast,&nbsp;Lucy Morton, our Head of Residential Agency,&nbsp;said:&nbsp;</strong></h2><p><em>&ldquo;London has faced its own unique set of challenges over the past fifteen months. Unsurprisingly the extent of its sudden and vast transformation from a thriving, borderless hub of activity that never slept, to a fully-locked-down ghost town was reflected in a similarly drastic lull in property market activity.&nbsp;</em></p><p><em>&ldquo;Yet despite this, the appeal of London as one of the most vibrant and popular cities of the world has reignited, the shoots of recovery in the capital are looking very green indeed; activity is picking up considerably, and interest &ndash; from domestic and international buyers alike &ndash; is returning.&rdquo;</em></p><p>Factors have combined to set up the highest grossing quarter in UK residential market history. Read more on our Spring Forecasts
    <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/insights/news/spring-2021-forecasts-our-property-predictions">here</a>.</p><p>You can find a full breakdown of the year-on-year data cited in the forecasts in the grid below:<br /></p><table><tbody><tr style="height:16.666666666666668%;"><td style="width:33.3333%;text-align:center;"><strong>Year:</strong></td><td style="width:33.3333%;text-align:center;"><strong>Total number of housing sales</strong></td><td style="width:33.3333%;text-align:center;"><strong>Total value of transactions (&pound;)</strong></td></tr><tr style="height:16.666666666666668%;"><td style="width:33.3333%;text-align:center;"><strong>2016</strong></td><td style="width:33.3333%;text-align:center;">316,000</td><td style="width:33.3333%;text-align:center;">&pound;65bn</td></tr><tr style="height:16.666666666666668%;"><td style="width:33.3333%;text-align:center;"><strong>2017</strong></td><td style="width:33.3333%;text-align:center;">337,000</td><td style="width:33.3333%;text-align:center;">&pound;72.5bn</td></tr><tr style="height:16.666666666666668%;"><td style="width:33.3333%;text-align:center;"><strong>2018</strong></td><td style="width:33.3333%;text-align:center;">333,000</td><td style="width:33.3333%;text-align:center;">&pound;75bn</td></tr><tr style="height:16.666666666666668%;"><td style="width:33.3333%;text-align:center;"><strong>2019</strong></td><td style="width:33.3333%;text-align:center;">317,000</td><td style="width:33.3333%;text-align:center;">&pound;72bn</td></tr><tr style="height:16.666666666666668%;"><td style="width:33.3333%;text-align:center;"><strong>2020</strong></td><td style="width:33.3333%;text-align:center;">233,000</td><td style="width:33.3333%;text-align:center;">&pound;58bn</td></tr><tr style="height:16.666666666666668%;"><td style="width:33.3333%;text-align:center;"><strong>2021&nbsp;</strong>(predicted)</td><td style="width:33.3333%;text-align:center;">420,000</td><td style="width:33.3333%;text-align:center;">&pound;107bn</td></tr></tbody></table><p>&nbsp;</p>

Billion pound summer forecasted this summer 2021 in UK housing market

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We have released new research predicting the UK residential property market&rsquo;s first ever &pound;100 billion summer.

We have released new research predicting the UK residential property market’s first ever £100 billion summer.

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The UK residential property market’s first £100 billion summer

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<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1619178659/resi/gb/cms/Research/Images/2021_Forecasts_infographic_Landscape_V6.jpg" data-displaymode="thumbnail" alt="infographic" title="Spring 2021 Forecasts: Our Property Predictions" style="vertical-align:middle;" /><button class="Button primary"><a style="color:rgba(255, 255, 255, 1);" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1619012684/resi/gb/cms/Research/PDFs/2021-forecasts-infographic-v5.pdf">Download the report </a></button><br /><br /><iframe width="100%" height="315" src="https://players.brightcove.net/1268729899001/default_default/index.html?videoId=6256747058001" sandbox="allow-scripts allow-same-origin"></iframe><br /><br />&nbsp;
<p>Our Spring 2021 Forecast assumptions:</p><div>The UK housing market is set to continue to confound expectations with JLL now predicting strong house price growth across all markets in 2021.</div><div><br /></div><div>As our November 2020 report Home is&hellip;for Everything stated, our homes have become the centre of our lives prompting many to re-evaluate their living priorities. These changing priorities will continue to drive buyer and renter behaviour in 2021
    with a dedicated space for home working and a garden becoming more of a focus for families in particular.</div><div><br /></div><div>However, demand for city living will also bounce back in 2021 with a growing appetite to return to social, bustling urban centres, particularly driven by younger generations. JLL has been monitoring rising demand for homes in key cities prompting our
    expectations for strong house price and rental growth in London and other major regional UK cities over the next 12 months.</div><div><br /></div><div>Despite Covid-19 causing a record contraction in GDP and rising unemployment, over the past 12 months the UK housing market has seen the highest level of house price growth since before the EU Referendum in June 2016.</div><div><br /></div><div>Prices have continued to grow strongly in 2021 on the back of the supportive UK Government measures such as the extended Stamp Duty holiday, 95% Mortgage Guarantee scheme and the speed of the COVID-19 vaccine rollout.</div><div><br /></div><div>JLL now forecasts that price growth will be 4.5% in the UK and 6% across London in 2021.</div><p>&nbsp;</p><br /><br /><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1583770729/resi/gb/cms/Contacts/Nick_Whitten.jpg" data-displaymode="thumbnail" alt="nick-whitten" title="Nick Whitten" style="vertical-align:middle;" />&nbsp;<br /><br /><p style="text-align:center;">Nick Whitten - Head of UK Living Research</p><p style="text-align:center;"><a href="mailto:Nick.Whitten@eu.jll.com" target="_blank"><button class="Button primary">Contact Us</button></a></p><div style="margin:15px;">&nbsp;</div>

Spring 2021 Forecasts: Our Property Predictions

<p>Spring 2021 Forecasts and property predictions as detailed by Nick Whitten, Head of UK Living Research at JLL.</p>

Our lives revolve around our homes more than at any point in the past 250 years.

<p>Our lives revolve around our homes more than at any point in the past 250 years. In our &lsquo;Home is for&hellip;Everything&rsquo; report, we looked to the future of UK house price and rental value forecasts for the next five years, the effect of the Covid-19 and the role technology would play in satisfying our needs and wants in our home. In our Spring 2021 Forecasts, we offer valuable insight into the next five years and predict strong house price growth.</p>

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<p>It seems hard to imagine that the changes in how we have lived and worked through the largest global pandemic in 100 years won&rsquo;t have any lasting impact on how we live going forward.</p>
<p>The benefits of remote working have now been fully tried and tested &ndash; and for many individuals and businesses alike those benefits are clear to see. But will we now see a mass exodus from London to the countryside as people seek more space to spend more of each week working from home?</p>
<p>That was the key question I tackled alongside London&rsquo;s Deputy Mayor for Housing, Tom Copley, at a recent London First panel debate. </p>
<p>A snapshot survey undertaken by JLL and London First in advance of the debate revealed that 1 in 4 of the 150-plus respondents now intend to move away from central urban areas in the next two years. And there have been numerous other surveys which have arrived at similar findings in recent months.</p>
<p>But is there any evidence of people leaving London en masse? </p>
<p>A closer look at London&rsquo;s historic population statistics show that there has long been a net outward migration of people at mid-life stages, who after having a family, typically leave the city in search of more affordable larger family homes. </p>
<p>The coronavirus pandemic has very likely accelerated the decision-making process for these people who were highly likely to leave the Capital anyway in the next few years.</p>
<p>London&rsquo;s growth from a 1 million-plus city in 1800 to its current circa 9 million has been driven by younger age groups and overseas workers. </p>
<p>And to question whether these groups will continue to seek a life in London is to question the future success of London itself. The UK Capital is a global leader in so many areas &ndash; finance, professional services, technology and the arts, to name a few.</p>
<p>As Covid begins to abate and life returns to some semblance of normality London&rsquo;s employment hubs will thrive once again and young workers from both the UK and overseas will continue to flock to the Capital.</p>
<p>Indeed, rather than predicting a population decline, the latest forecasts from Oxford Economics as of the end of January 2021 show London&rsquo;s population rising to 9.5m by 2030, albeit this would represent a slowing of the rate of growth seen over the past few decades. </p>
<h2><strong>Urban-rural mismatch</strong></h2>
<p>Meanwhile, the homes needed to accommodate a mass exodus to rural areas simply do not exist.</p>
<p>Since 1991, the proportion of people who live in rural areas has fallen from 22% to 16%, while virtually all population growth has been accommodated in urban areas.</p>
<p>In order to return to that peak rural population of 1991, we&rsquo;d need to build about 1.8 million homes in rural areas, which basically isn&rsquo;t going to happen.</p>
<p>Instead of a major population decline, Covid is more likely to spark a suburban revival and drive a dispersal of activity across London, as well as its wider commuter belt, as people split their week in half between working from home and going to central employment and leisure hubs.</p>
<p>In the past there have been great changes in how we use space on the back of significant advances in the mass movement of people on a daily basis through the advent of rail and roads.</p>
<p>It is hard to see how such a monumental event such as Covid-19 and the advancements it has triggered around remote working and digital technology will be entirely reversed.</p>
<p>The great change this time might be in how we simply move less people as a collective mass on a daily basis. It could become more evenly spread across a typical week. And this could trigger environmental and social benefits with less crowded and more efficient transport and services distributed more evenly across the city across the week &ndash; the creation of move liveable cities.</p>
<p>However, this will not be without its management challenges. And the onus is on business communities, transport operators and local authorities to co-ordinate strategies for a truly liveable 21<sup>st</sup> Century city.</p>
<h2><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">London First&rsquo;s and JLL&rsquo;s Post-Covid Living Priorities Survey</span></strong></h2>
<p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Key Findings:</span></strong></p>
<p>*24% of respondents had never worked from home pre-Covid</p>
<p>*40% would now like to work from home 1-2 days every week</p>
<p>*46% would like to work from home 3-4 days every week</p>
<p>*Broadband speed, personal outdoor space and private workspace are now ranked the most important features of the home</p>
*68% say proximity to public green space is now very important, compared with 31% pre-pandemic

Will Covid-19 cause London’s population to literally run for the hills?

It seems hard to imagine that the changes in how we have lived and worked through the largest global pandemic in 100 years won&rsquo;t have any lasting impact on how we live going forward. But will we now see a mass exodus from London to the countryside as people seek more space to spend more of each week working from home?

Will Covid-19 see a mass exodus of from London to the countryside as people seek more space to spend more of each week working from home? Our latest article explores this.

<p>It seems hard to imagine that the changes in how we have lived and worked through the largest global pandemic in 100 years won&rsquo;t have any lasting impact on how we live going forward. But will we now see a mass exodus from London to the countryside as people seek more space to spend more of each week working from home?</p>

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<p>&nbsp;Our Residential Forecasts 2021 will look to the future and offer valuable insight on:</p>
<ul>
    <li>UK house price and rental value forecasts for the next five years</li>
    <li>Expected future housing starts and levels of transactions over the next half a decade</li>
    <li>Which cities will witness the highest house price growth?</li>
    <li>Will the Covid-19 pandemic trigger large-scale de-urbanisation?</li>
    <li>What role is technology playing to satisfy our increasing needs and wants in our home</li>
</ul>
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<p>Nick Whitten our Head of UK Living Research discusses our latest forecasts in the video below.<br />
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<p style="text-align:center;"><a href="mailto:Nick.Whitten@eu.jll.com" target="_blank"><button class="Button primary">Contact</button></a></p>
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<p style="text-align:center;">Nick Whitten &ndash; Head of UK Living Research</p>
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UK Residential Forecasts – Home is… for everything

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Stratford

Covid-19 has emphasized our homes' importance, accelerating a trend where technology allows us to meet various needs at home.

Covid-19 has accelerated a trend which is making our homes the centre of our lives once again with technology being the great enabler allowing us to satisfy our needs and wants in our homes.

UK Residential forecasts – Home is… for everything

Our lives now revolve around our homes more than at any point in the past 250 years. In 2020, Covid-19 has accelerated a trend which is making our homes the centre of our lives once again with technology being the great enabler allowing us to satisfy our needs and wants in our homes.

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            <p><strong><img src="https://dev-cms-resi.eu.jll.com/images/default-source/articles/icons/jll_icon_red_046-(1).png?sfvrsn=11bf761d_2" width="45" height="45" alt="Pound icon" /></strong></p>
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            <strong>student housing valuation</strong>            </div>
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            <p><strong>UK-wide&nbsp;</strong></p>
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            <p><strong>PBSA portfolio of 5 operational assets</strong></p>
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            <p><strong>&gt; &pound;175m</strong></p>
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<h2><strong>Ambition</strong></h2>
<p>HSBC required JLL to carry out an updated valuation for loan review purposes of a Downing student housing portfolio, located across London and UK regions. Our client wished to understand the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the value of assets held as security, effective as of 31 March 2020.</p>
<h2><strong>Approach</strong></h2>
<p>Our Student Housing Valuation Advisory team assessed the impact of Covid-19 and government lockdown policies on occupancy, income and expenditure for each asset, for the remainder of the 2019/20 academic year, in addition to the potential impact on asset performance for the 2020/21 academic year, in the event this academic year was delayed. </p>
<p>The refund policy of Downing Students was considered, along with an increased focus on letting performance for the 2020/21 academic year, plus analysis of student demographics and catchment. This was then benchmarked against a wide range of other PBSA assets that the team were actively involved with, including the associated Covid-19 impact, and advice was sought from our Higher Education teams and Capital Markets teams, particularly with regard to the latest market sentiment, impact on yields, capital values, and higher education institutions.</p>
<h2><strong>Added value</strong></h2>
<p>The team drew upon JLL&rsquo;s global reach, including the experience of JLL&rsquo;s offices in China, Hong Kong and Singapore, who were at a more advanced stage in the pandemic, to better understand and forecast the likely impact and timing of Covid-19 on assets in the UK.</p>
<h2><strong>Challenges</strong></h2>
<p>The team was instructed by HSBC to provide valuations of the Downing portfolio during an unprecedented period of uncertainty, caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and the resultant lockdown. Quantifying the likely effects of the pandemic on the PBSA market presented complex challenges, unlike anything seen in the Higher Education and PBSA sectors before.</p>
<h2><strong>Achieved</strong></h2>
<p>A fully insightful valuation of the portfolio was provided, demonstrating the collaborative nature and depth of knowledge of JLL&rsquo;s Student Housing and Higher Education teams. New modelling strategies and multiple scenarios were demonstrated, to highlight the potential impact of a range of Covid-19 risk factors on PBSA asset performance.</p>
<p><a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/services/valuation-advisory" style="font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;text-align:inherit;text-transform:inherit;white-space:inherit;word-spacing:normal;caret-color:auto;"></a><button class="Button primary"><a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/services/valuation-advisory" style="font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;text-align:inherit;text-transform:inherit;white-space:inherit;word-spacing:normal;caret-color:auto;"></a><a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/services/valuation-advisory">Our valuation advisory services</a></button></p>

Assessing the impact of Covid-19 when valuing a UK-wide PBSA portfolio for HSBC

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HSBC required JLL to carry out an updated valuation for loan review purposes of a Downing student housing portfolio, located across London and UK regions. Our client wished to understand the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the value of assets held as security, effective as of 31 March 2020.

HSBC required JLL to carry out an updated valuation for loan review purposes of their UK-wide student housing portfolio, wishing to understand the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the value of assets held as security.

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<h2><strong>Home working during European lockdowns </strong></h2><p>In the <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/insights/research/housing-needs-and-resident-preferences-across-europe-during-covid-19">previous blog</a>, we identified shifting preferences on home location and priorities within the home itself. Many of these have been stimulated by much more time spent at home under &lsquo;shelter in place&rsquo; orders, as economic activity has drastically shifted from offices to residential units.</p>This blog unpicks the changing nature of peoples&rsquo; experiences and expectations for working from home, and leads onto identifying the similarities different socio-demographic cohorts exhibit across the whole European sample, including wider changes in home preferences in light of Covid-19.<br /><br /><h2><strong>Working from home</strong></h2><p>Covid-19 has triggered a widespread temporary shift to homeworking. Government guidance across the continent almost unilaterally was to work from home wherever possible. Time spent at work fell, compared to normal, between 83 and 90% during its nadir under lockdown, according to Google Trends.</p>69% of survey respondents worked infrequently (less than once a week or never) before Covid-19, but being forced to work from home for a prolonged period has changed perceptions and expectations moving forward. In a post-Covid-19 world, our respondents want to work from home more, with the most common preference (53%) being 1-2 days per week. The below chart shows that the majority of flows are moderate changes to habits. For example, those who never work from home are now mostly wanting to work once or twice a week, rather than all the time. Indeed, the same proportion (7%) of respondents are looking to work from home full-time.<br /><br /><img src="https://dev-cms-resi.eu.jll.com/images/default-source/default-album/graph-1---living-prioritiesdd2906d281be463a9b788c86df40000b.png?sfvrsn=ca7b6573_0" style="vertical-align:middle;" title="Graph 1 - Living priorities" data-displaymode="Original" alt="Graph 1 - Living priorities" /><br /><p>It is worth noting that changing work from home preferences does not necessarily correlate with lower overall office space demand. The equation is much more complicated than this, as discussed in JLL&rsquo;s &lsquo;<a href="https://www.jll.co.uk/en/trends-and-insights/research/future-of-office-demand">The Future of Global Office Demand</a>&rsquo; paper, and includes factors relating to office design and commuting patterns, as well as technological influences. </p><p>Most of the changes from our survey are minimal, and are likely to soften as people return to work and realise the benefits that personal interactions can have on productivity and collaboration in particular. Indeed, four months on from the first lockdowns, we are starting to a see a significant return of workers to their offices, albeit at limited capacity for now. As discussed in the earlier blog, people are looking to recreate the professional working environment at home, with second screens, office chairs, spare rooms and so on, meaning they value quality set ups. Indeed, there are many aspects of office life that simply cannot be replicated in a permanent work from home situation. There are many other factors at play as we look to the future across Europe: societal customs across the continent, ability for individuals to balance work and home lives, and ultimately employer rules and receptiveness this change. </p>One of the interesting elements to this is the differences between age groups across our sample. Younger cohorts were significantly less likely to regularly work from home, with only 24% of 18-34s working from home once a week or more. The pandemic has significantly disrupted this trend, with all age groups relatively equally likely to want to work from home once or twice per week.&nbsp;<br /><br /><img src="https://dev-cms-resi.eu.jll.com/images/default-source/default-album/graph-2---living-priorities.png?sfvrsn=1634891_0" style="vertical-align:middle;" title="Graph 2 - living priorities" data-displaymode="Original" alt="Graph 2 - living priorities" /><br /><h2><strong style="font-size:18px;">Towards a cohort classification</strong></h2>One of the most striking things about the survey results is how similar experiences have been, and the strong similarities of preference for those at different life stages. Drawing on themes from both blogs, the below graphic tries to identify different socio-demographic cohorts and their headline results from the survey. We can recognise the groups most likely to look to move, where their preference would be, what they want out of a home. The changing intention around home working is also notable different, perhaps showing the demographics the offices of the future should be more targeted towards.&nbsp;<br /><br /><img src="https://dev-cms-resi.eu.jll.com/images/default-source/default-album/graph-3---living-priorities.png?sfvrsn=33046ac1_0" style="vertical-align:middle;" title="Graph 3 - living priorities" data-displaymode="Original" alt="Graph 3 - living priorities" /><h2><strong>Temporary or permanent?</strong></h2><p>The survey was conducted while much of Europe&rsquo;s population was in the deepest throngs of lockdown and is therefore likely that results reflect a bias for immediate concerns. As the continent&rsquo;s lockdowns ease and a semblance of normality emerges, it is possible that some views will soften, but other preferences will endure. </p><p>We are looking to re-run the survey in the autumn to understand the permanency of these views &ndash; how far away is the &lsquo;new normal&rsquo; from past expectations?</p><p style="text-align:center;"><img src="https://dev-cms-resi.eu.jll.com/images/default-source/default-album/thomas-colthorpec1eb2d7194d94b96a1dcd11ed2e1eead.tmb-medium.jpg?sfvrsn=2397beb_1" style="vertical-align:middle;" title="Thomas.Colthorpe" data-displaymode="Thumbnail" alt="Thomas.Colthorpe" /></p><p style="text-align:center;"><a href="mailto:Thomas.Colthorpe@eu.jll.com" target="_blank"><button class="Button primary">Contact</button></a></p><div style="margin:15px;"><p style="text-align:center;">Tom Colthorpe<br />Senior Analyst</p></div>

Home working during lockdown across Europe

In the second of two blogs based on our JLL employee survey, we interrogate shifting work from home patterns under lockdown across Europe and how they influence people’s perceptions of the home. 

In the second of two blogs based on our JLL employee survey, we interrogate shifting work from home patterns under lockdown and how they influence people&rsquo;s perceptions of the home. Drawing on all the data, we demonstrate there are significant similarities in the experiences and expectations of distinct socio-demographic cohorts across Europe.

https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1598034825/resi/gb/cms/Blogs/Images/GettyImages-1223377340-488x180-min.jpg

<p>New JLL analysis of approximately 900,000 privately rented units across the UK and U.S. reveals rent collection in excess of 94.0 percent in both markets, with occupancy also remaining firm since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Both fundamentals illustrate
    resident prioritization of rent payments and continued tenancy despite mounting hardships. </p><p>Offering income stability and capital-value resiliency through economic downturns, the multifamily sector is commonly regarded as a defensive asset class. Driven by a persistent need for housing and flexible lease terms, contractions tend to be shorter
    while periods of growth are prolonged. For these reasons, 84.0 percent of investors targeted the sector pre-COVID-19, according to our <a href="https://www.jll.co.uk/en/trends-and-insights/research/jll-european-living-investor-survey-what-the-investor-appetite-in-2020">European Investor Survey</a>.
</p><p>The economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic led to immediate consideration for tenants and their ability to pay rent. Encouragingly, multifamily operators have generally chosen to engage with their tenants and to allay concerns and fears during these
    unprecedented times. These actions have highlighted the service-based approach that many multifamily operators provide, in contrast to private landlords across both markets.&nbsp;<br /></p><h2><b>JLL UK And U.S. Rent Collection and Occupancy Portal</b></h2><p>In an effort to guide and inform owners and operators on the current state of the market, JLL Research on both sides of the Atlantic have partnered with nearly 50 firms, accounting for more than 900,000 units, to actively monitor rent collection and occupancy
    rates. The resounding participation by institutional groups in our rent collection effort underscores commitment to performance and investment in the asset class.</p><h2><b>Key factors impacting multifamily performance</b></h2><p>Government intervention has provided near-term stability to the broader economy, aiming to mitigate deeper negative impacts during the recovery period. Select stimulus packages and policies have supported renter finances and associated multifamily operator
    performance:&nbsp; </p><ul><li><b>United States</b>: the CARES Act bolstered unemployment benefits by $600 per week, often lifting incomes higher than historic earnings (due to expire at the end of July). Municipalities have broadly enacted temporary eviction moratoriums and rent
        freezes.
        <br /></li><li><b>United Kingdom</b>: The Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme, puts employees on leave but allows them to stay on their company's payroll. The policy outlines that the UK Government pays 80.0 percent of furloughed employees&rsquo; salaries up to a
        maximum of &pound;2,500 a month.In addition to government programs, property owners and managers are proactively working with tenants experiencing hardships, offering to defer rents or allow early move-outs without lease-break fees.<br /></li></ul><h2><br /><b>Multifamily performance amid widespread economic closure</b></h2><p>Despite historic job losses and economic uncertainty, rent collections have remained strong during the first three full months of COVID-19 disruptions. UK operators captured 96.3 percent of rents, while the U.S. collected 93.9 percent of rents in June.
</p><ul><li>In the<b> United States</b>, analysis demonstrates that premium product outperforms mid-range and affordable product. Such outperformance is largely attributed to a tenant base comprised of higher-income earners employed in industries experiencing
        more muted economic impacts. Additionally, affordable markets &ndash; commonly in the Southern U.S. &ndash; collect nearly 3.0 percent more, on average, than expensive gateways. Underperforming markets continue to be concentrated in entertainment
        hubs and high-cost gateways, while secondary and tech-centric markets lead rent collections.<br /></li><li>Interestingly, the story in the <b>United Kingdom</b> differs from the U.S., with the mid-range market segment posting higher collections to date. Limited variation has occurred from market-to-market, speaking to the overall stability of institutional
        assets nationwide. The most marked shift over the past month has come at the more affordable segment of the UK market, with rent collection increasing by 430bp at the end of June.<br /><br /></li></ul><p><img src="https://dev-cms-resi.eu.jll.com/images/default-source/articles/icons/overall-rent-collection-by-country-updated-graph-(1).png?sfvrsn=42be32c9_1" sf-custom-thumbnail="true" width="752" sf-constrain-proportions="true" sf-size="100" /></p><p>Source:&nbsp;<i>JLL</i></p><p>Shifting occupancy rates also have a significant impact on investor operating incomes. Occupancy rates in both the UK and the U.S. have begun to deteriorate as financially distressed residents opt to move back in with family, or double-up in a shared
    apartment. &nbsp;</p><ul><li><b>United Kingdom</b>: a 100 bp fall in occupancy rates from March to April was common across operators. The tenant base of UK multifamily assets has a strong weighting towards university students and young professionals who may have alternative housing
        options such as living with family. While there was another drop from April to May, there has been a strong recovery in overall occupancy numbers, with an increase of 30 basis points totalling 95.9 percent for June. This recovery has provided
        landlords some assurance that tenants who remain in their portfolio, at least for the time being, have job and financial security and are able to meet their rent payments.<br /></li><li><b>United States</b>: since early April, occupancy rates have declined 244 bps for premium, 77 bps for mid-range and 38 bps for affordable product. The drop in premium asset occupancy occurs as residents increasingly seek more affordable, spacious
        options in suburban submarkets. Additionally, properties recently completed are experiencing longer lease-up periods and widening concession packages. Concurrently, concession packages are more pronounced in urban submarkets than their suburban
        counterparts offering 1.3 percent more on average.&nbsp;</li></ul><div style="margin:15px;"><h2><b>How does this compare with other sectors?</b></h2></div><p><img src="https://dev-cms-resi.eu.jll.com/images/default-source/articles/icons/overall-rent-collection-by-sector-updated-graph.png?sfvrsn=c02eda74_1" sf-size="100" /></p><div style="margin:15px;"><p>Source:&nbsp;<i>JLL</i><i></i></p><p>* based on analysis of EMEA listed sector reporting at the end of Q1. </p><p>** U.S. NAREIT as of May collections</p></div><div>JLL research highlights the resilience and outperformance that multifamily has demonstrated in both the U.S. and UK, to date. Industrial and office have increasingly performed well over the past couple months, as the U.S. economy begins to open up
        once again. Furthermore, as highlighted in the previous graph, rent collection for multifamily in both markets has exceeded expectations and stayed at a consistently high rate throughout the pandemic.<br /><br /></div><h2><b>How will the sector perform in the coming months?</b></h2><p>The strong performance to date has been encouraging for both markets. However, as the financial stimulus packages in the UK and the U.S. begin to taper, there are clear concerns regarding the impact to performance for the remainder of the year. </p><p>Recent developments to the Furlough policy in the UK will mandate employers to pay a greater share of workers&rsquo; salaries. This tapering process will begin from 1<sup>st</sup> August, as employers will be required to pay National Insurance and
        pension contributions for their staff. In September, employers will then pay 10.0 percent of employees' salaries - rising to 20.0 percent in October. Meanwhile, in the United States, the extra $600 per week employment benefit is set to expire
        in late July, reducing incomes and likely hurting low-income earners in a pronounced fashion.</p><h2><b>Hobson&rsquo;s Choice: rent or occupancy?</b></h2><p>Despite this strong performance in H1 2020, it seems certain that investors and operators will face pressure on both rental rates and occupancy.</p><p>Entering the height of the leasing season, operators are unable to push rental rates and are often offering rent-free concession packages of two to eight weeks in the U.S. Additionally, an uptick in month-to-month lease agreements has maintained cash
        flow in the short-term, but leads to near-term uncertainty for operators. Similarly, In the UK, the third quarter is peak leasing season with 40.0 percent of existing tenancies due for renewal in these months. However, some doubts persist on whether
        students will return to universities and in what capacity &ndash; potentially further dampening PRS demand. As UK-based investors and operators will focus on maintaining high levels of occupancy rather than driving rents in the short term, we
        believe that many tenants renewing leases or seeking new living opportunities will attempt to negotiate rents. As such, JLL has adjusted our <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/insights/research/jll-residential-market-forecasts-may-2020">rental forecasts</a> anticipating an average value decline of circa 2.0 percent across the UK in 2020. </p><p>The sector has performed well through the downturn so far and is expected to remain relatively resilient in the coming months. That said, performance of multifamily is dependent on the extent of economic fallout and recovery, particularly once support
        policies are withdrawn or tapered. JLL will continue to monitor and report on key metrics in the U.S., UK and other global markets. It is likely to be a rejuvenated interest from global investors to deploy capital in the sector as economies emerge
        from the crisis.&nbsp;</p><div style="margin:15px;"><img style="display:block;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;" src="https://dev-cms-resi.eu.jll.com/images/default-source/blog---graphs/philip-wedge.jpg?sfvrsn=f5ebaf3c_1" sf-size="100" /></div><div style="margin:15px;"><p style="text-align:center;">Philip Wedge-Bernal &ndash; Associate, EMEA Living Research and Strategy</p><img style="display:block;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;" sf-custom-thumbnail="true" width="488" src="https://dev-cms-resi.eu.jll.com/images/default-source/articles/icons/perez_danielle_b-w_488x180b98c1878b48c4dc3a1a91cccf1e616a7.jpg?sfvrsn=cfdc8a2_1" sf-constrain-proportions="true" sf-size="100" /></div><div style="margin:15px;"><p style="text-align:center;">Danielle Perez&nbsp; &ndash; Manager, Capital Markets Research
        </p></div>

JLL study shows multifamily rent collection and occupancy rates remain resilient on both sides of the Atlantic

neighborhood-watch-paddington

New JLL analysis of approximately 900,000 privately rented units across the UK and U.S. reveals rent collection in excess of 94.0 percent in both markets.

Analysis on UK and US multifamily rent collection and occupancy rates

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<p style="text-align:left;"><b>Stamp duty holiday</b></p><p>Government policy support is of absolute importance in limiting the economic impact of Covid-19 on the housing market in the UK. The stamp duty holiday until 31st March 2021 for homes up to &pound;500,000 could prove to be a key incentive to kickstart
    the housing market and make up for lost sales. There is a lot of pent up demand for new homes in the UK &ndash; our research shows more people are now looking to move home in the next two years. This stimulus could trigger a stronger than anticipated
    bounce in demand by allowing aspiring purchasers to use their stamp duty saving towards a higher deposit.</p><p>The Government has a recent track record of making stamp duty changes to help those on the earlier stages of the housing ladder such as first time buyers. Looking forward we would also encourage the Government to consider stamp duty incentives for older
    people to downsize or right size their homes. There is strong evidence to show that those over the age of 65 simply do not move until such a time as it becomes a necessity, such as needing care. However, over the next 10 years around 25% of the UK
    population will be over the age of 65. Encouraging these people to move into age appropriate homes would free up much needed housing at the other end of the housing ladder.</p><p><b>The green recovery</b></p>Assisting households with making energy-efficient home improvements will lead to lower energy bills, create job opportunities all over the country and is an important initiative to help deliver a low carbon future for the
UK.&nbsp; But the Government still needs to lay out the full roadmap to decarbonise all homes across the UK, and it must take responsibility to educate the public that living in a low carbon home is both inherently desirable and an absolute necessity
to meet our climate change goals.
<p><i></i><i></i></p><p style="text-align:left;"><a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/search?tenureType=sale&amp;flags=help-to-buy%7Cshared-ownership&amp;sortBy=price&amp;sortDirection=desc"></a><br /></p><p><img style="display:block;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;" src="https://dev-cms-resi.eu.jll.com/images/default-source/articles/nick-whittenff5b6a2f02024effbe2728cd4bd0c4c8.jpg?sfvrsn=aea2d7eb_1" sf-size="100" /></p><p style="text-align:center;">Nick Whitten - Head of UK Living Research</p>

Stamp duty tax holiday should trigger stronger than anticipated bounce in house demand

Impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on UK economic growth and business activity is undeniable, but the stimulus measures announced today will be key to boosting the housing market through the current downturn.

<p>Impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on UK economic growth and business activity is undeniable, but the stimulus measures announced today will be key to boosting the housing market through the current downturn.<b></b><br /></p>

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<p style="text-align:left;">On June 16 at 17:00, join Kimberly Markiewicz Senior Research Analyst within the UK Residential Research team to discuss the impact of the global pandemic on the residential market, including predicted forecasts and the potential shift in buyers&rsquo;
    preferences. </p><p style="text-align:left;">Holly Stock, Director of Help to Buy and Eloise Robins, Director of Share Ownership will outline the various implications the current pandemic may have on the government schemes Help to Buy: Equity Loan and Help to Buy: Shared Ownership as well as JLL&rsquo;s
    collection of properties across London.
</p><p style="text-align:left;"><a href="https://players.brightcove.net/1268729899001/default_default/index.html?videoId=6165245736001" target="_blank">Watch our webinar</a></p><p style="text-align:left;"><a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/search?tenureType=sale&amp;flags=help-to-buy%7Cshared-ownership&amp;sortBy=price&amp;sortDirection=desc">View JLL&rsquo;s Help to Buy and Shared Ownership properties.</a> </p><p style="text-align:center;">&nbsp;</p><img style="display:block;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;" src="https://dev-cms-resi.eu.jll.com/images/default-source/blog---graphs/kimberly-markiewicz-for-website.jpg?sfvrsn=8dccad1c_1" sf-size="100" /><p style="text-align:center;"><br />Kimberly Markiewicz<br />&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; Senior Research Analyst&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;</p>

JLL Share to Buy Webinar, June 16 2020

In partnership with Share to Buy,<strong>&nbsp;</strong>our Research, Help to Buy and Shared Ownership teams will discuss the current market activity, potential future trends impacting the UK residential market in light of Covid-19 as well as spotlight on some of our qualifying properties.

In partnership with Share to Buy, our Research, Help to Buy and Shared Ownership teams will discuss the current market activity, potential future trends impacting the UK residential market in light of Covid-19.

<p><i></i>In partnership with Share to Buy,<b> </b>our Research, Help to Buy and Shared Ownership teams will discuss the current market activity, potential future trends impacting the UK residential market in light of Covid-19 as well as spotlight on some of our qualifying properties.<i></i></p>

https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1591272510/resi/gb/cms/Research/Images/Share_to_Buy_webinar_488x180.jpg

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Our Locations

Insights

Our analysts turn data into actionable insights giving you an effective view of the residential property market. View and use our reports, tools and infographics.