<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1619178659/resi/gb/cms/Research/Images/2021_Forecasts_infographic_Landscape_V6.jpg" data-displaymode="thumbnail" alt="infographic" title="Spring 2021 Forecasts: Our Property Predictions" style="vertical-align:middle;" /><button class="Button primary"><a style="color:rgba(255, 255, 255, 1);" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1619012684/resi/gb/cms/Research/PDFs/2021-forecasts-infographic-v5.pdf">Download the report </a></button><br /><br /><iframe width="100%" height="315" src="https://players.brightcove.net/1268729899001/default_default/index.html?videoId=6256747058001" sandbox="allow-scripts allow-same-origin"></iframe><br /><br />&nbsp;
<p>Our Spring 2021 Forecast assumptions:</p><div>The UK housing market is set to continue to confound expectations with JLL now predicting strong house price growth across all markets in 2021.</div><div><br /></div><div>As our November 2020 report Home is&hellip;for Everything stated, our homes have become the centre of our lives prompting many to re-evaluate their living priorities. These changing priorities will continue to drive buyer and renter behaviour in 2021
    with a dedicated space for home working and a garden becoming more of a focus for families in particular.</div><div><br /></div><div>However, demand for city living will also bounce back in 2021 with a growing appetite to return to social, bustling urban centres, particularly driven by younger generations. JLL has been monitoring rising demand for homes in key cities prompting our
    expectations for strong house price and rental growth in London and other major regional UK cities over the next 12 months.</div><div><br /></div><div>Despite Covid-19 causing a record contraction in GDP and rising unemployment, over the past 12 months the UK housing market has seen the highest level of house price growth since before the EU Referendum in June 2016.</div><div><br /></div><div>Prices have continued to grow strongly in 2021 on the back of the supportive UK Government measures such as the extended Stamp Duty holiday, 95% Mortgage Guarantee scheme and the speed of the COVID-19 vaccine rollout.</div><div><br /></div><div>JLL now forecasts that price growth will be 4.5% in the UK and 6% across London in 2021.</div><p>&nbsp;</p><br /><br /><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1583770729/resi/gb/cms/Contacts/Nick_Whitten.jpg" data-displaymode="thumbnail" alt="nick-whitten" title="Nick Whitten" style="vertical-align:middle;" />&nbsp;<br /><br /><p style="text-align:center;">Nick Whitten - Head of UK Living Research</p><p style="text-align:center;"><a href="mailto:Nick.Whitten@eu.jll.com" target="_blank"><button class="Button primary">Contact Us</button></a></p><div style="margin:15px;">&nbsp;</div>

Spring 2021 Forecasts: Our Property Predictions

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<p>Spring 2021 Forecasts and property predictions as detailed by Nick Whitten, Head of UK Living Research at JLL.</p>

Our lives revolve around our homes more than at any point in the past 250 years.

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<p>Our lives revolve around our homes more than at any point in the past 250 years. In our &lsquo;Home is for&hellip;Everything&rsquo; report, we looked to the future of UK house price and rental value forecasts for the next five years, the effect of the Covid-19 and the role technology would play in satisfying our needs and wants in our home. In our Spring 2021 Forecasts, we offer valuable insight into the next five years and predict strong house price growth.</p>

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<p>We have released new research predicting the UK residential property market&rsquo;s first ever &pound;100 billion summer.<br /></p><p>The forecast, which takes the current trajectory of the housing market and applies it to the rest of summer months, estimates that there will be 420,000 sales in the UK across June, July and August at a total spend of a record&nbsp;<strong>&pound;107bn</strong>.&nbsp;<br /></p><p>This will make this summer the highest grossing quarter in UK residential market history and is in stark contrast to previous years. Throughout the past half decade, total spend from buyers during the summer months has averaged &pound;69bn-per-year, a
    figure that comprised of a little over 300,000 sales.<br /></p><h2><strong>Speaking on the forecast,&nbsp;Nick Whitten, our Head of UK Living Research,&nbsp;said:&nbsp;</strong></h2><p><em>&ldquo;It is well-documented that the Summer is the best time to sell a home, with sentiment receiving a natural positive boost from the warmer weather. However, our data suggests that this post-lockdown summer will set a new record. The reasons behind the buying bonanza - with the most exchanges and highest total sales value on record &ndash; are threefold. The stamp duty extension to the end of June means that during the quarter eager buyers and sellers will look to force a deal through. This, combined with the increased financial stability many buyers are feeling as we unlock from Coronavirus, and the well-documented supply constraints in the UK market, means we can expect to see demand swallowing up available stock, pushing up prices but not to the extent that it will affect transactions.&rdquo;</em></p><p>The Government has set a clear priority to help more people onto the housing ladder through its Own Your Home campaign. The campaign puts the spotlight on six Government-backed support schemes to allow people to access some form of home ownership.</p><p>The forecasted spike in activity this Summer will be particularly evident in the north of England, which is predicted to see circa 100,000 sales &ndash; around 25% of the total UK.</p><h2><strong>Stephen Hogg, our Head of North West and Residential UK Regions&nbsp;said:&nbsp;</strong></h2><p><em>&ldquo;We have seen the market steadily improve and are fully expecting a further acceleration throughout the Summer.&nbsp; &ldquo;North-shoring&rdquo; is a trend we have seen pre-COVID but even more during and post-COVID with purchasers seeing better value for money in the north.&nbsp; Regional towns and cities continue to be voted the best places to live in the UK with less congestion and some of the best schooling.&nbsp; The regional cities are bouncing back quicker, HS2 offers further medium to long term growth prospects coupled with the Government&rsquo;s levelling up agenda.&nbsp; Flex working is becoming the norm and therefore the need to live close to the Capital is diminishing.&nbsp; The historical brain-drain of regional centres seeking high skilled high paid jobs in London is a thing of the past.&nbsp; With the likes of Manchester, Birmingham, Edinburgh offering opportunities equal to or not available in London they are now attracting a vast talent pool who in turn are boosting the local housing markets.&rdquo;</em></p><h2><strong>Providing a Prime London lens on the research and forecast,&nbsp;Lucy Morton, our Head of Residential Agency,&nbsp;said:&nbsp;</strong></h2><p><em>&ldquo;London has faced its own unique set of challenges over the past fifteen months. Unsurprisingly the extent of its sudden and vast transformation from a thriving, borderless hub of activity that never slept, to a fully-locked-down ghost town was reflected in a similarly drastic lull in property market activity.&nbsp;</em></p><p><em>&ldquo;Yet despite this, the appeal of London as one of the most vibrant and popular cities of the world has reignited, the shoots of recovery in the capital are looking very green indeed; activity is picking up considerably, and interest &ndash; from domestic and international buyers alike &ndash; is returning.&rdquo;</em></p><p>Factors have combined to set up the highest grossing quarter in UK residential market history. Read more on our Spring Forecasts
    <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/insights/news/spring-2021-forecasts-our-property-predictions">here</a>.</p><p>You can find a full breakdown of the year-on-year data cited in the forecasts in the grid below:<br /></p><table><tbody><tr style="height:16.666666666666668%;"><td style="width:33.3333%;text-align:center;"><strong>Year:</strong></td><td style="width:33.3333%;text-align:center;"><strong>Total number of housing sales</strong></td><td style="width:33.3333%;text-align:center;"><strong>Total value of transactions (&pound;)</strong></td></tr><tr style="height:16.666666666666668%;"><td style="width:33.3333%;text-align:center;"><strong>2016</strong></td><td style="width:33.3333%;text-align:center;">316,000</td><td style="width:33.3333%;text-align:center;">&pound;65bn</td></tr><tr style="height:16.666666666666668%;"><td style="width:33.3333%;text-align:center;"><strong>2017</strong></td><td style="width:33.3333%;text-align:center;">337,000</td><td style="width:33.3333%;text-align:center;">&pound;72.5bn</td></tr><tr style="height:16.666666666666668%;"><td style="width:33.3333%;text-align:center;"><strong>2018</strong></td><td style="width:33.3333%;text-align:center;">333,000</td><td style="width:33.3333%;text-align:center;">&pound;75bn</td></tr><tr style="height:16.666666666666668%;"><td style="width:33.3333%;text-align:center;"><strong>2019</strong></td><td style="width:33.3333%;text-align:center;">317,000</td><td style="width:33.3333%;text-align:center;">&pound;72bn</td></tr><tr style="height:16.666666666666668%;"><td style="width:33.3333%;text-align:center;"><strong>2020</strong></td><td style="width:33.3333%;text-align:center;">233,000</td><td style="width:33.3333%;text-align:center;">&pound;58bn</td></tr><tr style="height:16.666666666666668%;"><td style="width:33.3333%;text-align:center;"><strong>2021&nbsp;</strong>(predicted)</td><td style="width:33.3333%;text-align:center;">420,000</td><td style="width:33.3333%;text-align:center;">&pound;107bn</td></tr></tbody></table><p>&nbsp;</p>

Billion pound summer forecasted this summer 2021 in UK housing market

We have released new research predicting the UK residential property market&rsquo;s first ever &pound;100 billion summer.

We have released new research predicting the UK residential property market’s first ever £100 billion summer.

The UK residential property market’s first £100 billion summer

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<p>It seems hard to imagine that the changes in how we have lived and worked through the largest global pandemic in 100 years won&rsquo;t have any lasting impact on how we live going forward.</p>
<p>The benefits of remote working have now been fully tried and tested &ndash; and for many individuals and businesses alike those benefits are clear to see. But will we now see a mass exodus from London to the countryside as people seek more space to spend more of each week working from home?</p>
<p>That was the key question I tackled alongside London&rsquo;s Deputy Mayor for Housing, Tom Copley, at a recent London First panel debate. </p>
<p>A snapshot survey undertaken by JLL and London First in advance of the debate revealed that 1 in 4 of the 150-plus respondents now intend to move away from central urban areas in the next two years. And there have been numerous other surveys which have arrived at similar findings in recent months.</p>
<p>But is there any evidence of people leaving London en masse? </p>
<p>A closer look at London&rsquo;s historic population statistics show that there has long been a net outward migration of people at mid-life stages, who after having a family, typically leave the city in search of more affordable larger family homes. </p>
<p>The coronavirus pandemic has very likely accelerated the decision-making process for these people who were highly likely to leave the Capital anyway in the next few years.</p>
<p>London&rsquo;s growth from a 1 million-plus city in 1800 to its current circa 9 million has been driven by younger age groups and overseas workers. </p>
<p>And to question whether these groups will continue to seek a life in London is to question the future success of London itself. The UK Capital is a global leader in so many areas &ndash; finance, professional services, technology and the arts, to name a few.</p>
<p>As Covid begins to abate and life returns to some semblance of normality London&rsquo;s employment hubs will thrive once again and young workers from both the UK and overseas will continue to flock to the Capital.</p>
<p>Indeed, rather than predicting a population decline, the latest forecasts from Oxford Economics as of the end of January 2021 show London&rsquo;s population rising to 9.5m by 2030, albeit this would represent a slowing of the rate of growth seen over the past few decades. </p>
<h2><strong>Urban-rural mismatch</strong></h2>
<p>Meanwhile, the homes needed to accommodate a mass exodus to rural areas simply do not exist.</p>
<p>Since 1991, the proportion of people who live in rural areas has fallen from 22% to 16%, while virtually all population growth has been accommodated in urban areas.</p>
<p>In order to return to that peak rural population of 1991, we&rsquo;d need to build about 1.8 million homes in rural areas, which basically isn&rsquo;t going to happen.</p>
<p>Instead of a major population decline, Covid is more likely to spark a suburban revival and drive a dispersal of activity across London, as well as its wider commuter belt, as people split their week in half between working from home and going to central employment and leisure hubs.</p>
<p>In the past there have been great changes in how we use space on the back of significant advances in the mass movement of people on a daily basis through the advent of rail and roads.</p>
<p>It is hard to see how such a monumental event such as Covid-19 and the advancements it has triggered around remote working and digital technology will be entirely reversed.</p>
<p>The great change this time might be in how we simply move less people as a collective mass on a daily basis. It could become more evenly spread across a typical week. And this could trigger environmental and social benefits with less crowded and more efficient transport and services distributed more evenly across the city across the week &ndash; the creation of move liveable cities.</p>
<p>However, this will not be without its management challenges. And the onus is on business communities, transport operators and local authorities to co-ordinate strategies for a truly liveable 21<sup>st</sup> Century city.</p>
<h2><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">London First&rsquo;s and JLL&rsquo;s Post-Covid Living Priorities Survey</span></strong></h2>
<p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Key Findings:</span></strong></p>
<p>*24% of respondents had never worked from home pre-Covid</p>
<p>*40% would now like to work from home 1-2 days every week</p>
<p>*46% would like to work from home 3-4 days every week</p>
<p>*Broadband speed, personal outdoor space and private workspace are now ranked the most important features of the home</p>
*68% say proximity to public green space is now very important, compared with 31% pre-pandemic

Will Covid-19 cause London’s population to literally run for the hills?

It seems hard to imagine that the changes in how we have lived and worked through the largest global pandemic in 100 years won&rsquo;t have any lasting impact on how we live going forward. But will we now see a mass exodus from London to the countryside as people seek more space to spend more of each week working from home?

Will Covid-19 see a mass exodus of from London to the countryside as people seek more space to spend more of each week working from home? Our latest article explores this.

<p>It seems hard to imagine that the changes in how we have lived and worked through the largest global pandemic in 100 years won&rsquo;t have any lasting impact on how we live going forward. But will we now see a mass exodus from London to the countryside as people seek more space to spend more of each week working from home?</p>

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<p>&nbsp;Our Residential Forecasts 2021 will look to the future and offer valuable insight on:</p>
<ul>
    <li>UK house price and rental value forecasts for the next five years</li>
    <li>Expected future housing starts and levels of transactions over the next half a decade</li>
    <li>Which cities will witness the highest house price growth?</li>
    <li>Will the Covid-19 pandemic trigger large-scale de-urbanisation?</li>
    <li>What role is technology playing to satisfy our increasing needs and wants in our home</li>
</ul>
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<p>Nick Whitten our Head of UK Living Research discusses our latest forecasts in the video below.<br />
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<p style="text-align:center;"><a href="mailto:Nick.Whitten@eu.jll.com" target="_blank"><button class="Button primary">Contact</button></a></p>
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<p style="text-align:center;">Nick Whitten &ndash; Head of UK Living Research</p>
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UK Residential Forecasts – Home is… for everything

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Our lives now revolve around our homes more than at any point in the past 250 years. In 2020, Covid-19 has accelerated a trend which is making our homes the centre of our lives once again with technology being the great enabler allowing us to satisfy our needs and wants in our homes.

Covid-19 has accelerated a trend which is making our homes the centre of our lives once again with technology being the great enabler allowing us to satisfy our needs and wants in our homes.

UK Residential forecasts – Home is… for everything

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<p style="text-align:left;"><b>Stamp duty holiday</b></p><p>Government policy support is of absolute importance in limiting the economic impact of Covid-19 on the housing market in the UK. The stamp duty holiday until 31st March 2021 for homes up to &pound;500,000 could prove to be a key incentive to kickstart
    the housing market and make up for lost sales. There is a lot of pent up demand for new homes in the UK &ndash; our research shows more people are now looking to move home in the next two years. This stimulus could trigger a stronger than anticipated
    bounce in demand by allowing aspiring purchasers to use their stamp duty saving towards a higher deposit.</p><p>The Government has a recent track record of making stamp duty changes to help those on the earlier stages of the housing ladder such as first time buyers. Looking forward we would also encourage the Government to consider stamp duty incentives for older
    people to downsize or right size their homes. There is strong evidence to show that those over the age of 65 simply do not move until such a time as it becomes a necessity, such as needing care. However, over the next 10 years around 25% of the UK
    population will be over the age of 65. Encouraging these people to move into age appropriate homes would free up much needed housing at the other end of the housing ladder.</p><p><b>The green recovery</b></p>Assisting households with making energy-efficient home improvements will lead to lower energy bills, create job opportunities all over the country and is an important initiative to help deliver a low carbon future for the
UK.&nbsp; But the Government still needs to lay out the full roadmap to decarbonise all homes across the UK, and it must take responsibility to educate the public that living in a low carbon home is both inherently desirable and an absolute necessity
to meet our climate change goals.
<p><i></i><i></i></p><p style="text-align:left;"><a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/search?tenureType=sale&amp;flags=help-to-buy%7Cshared-ownership&amp;sortBy=price&amp;sortDirection=desc"></a><br /></p><p><img style="display:block;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;" src="https://cms-resi.eu.jll.com/images/default-source/articles/nick-whittenff5b6a2f02024effbe2728cd4bd0c4c8.jpg?sfvrsn=aea2d7eb_1" sf-size="100" /></p><p style="text-align:center;">Nick Whitten - Head of UK Living Research</p>

Stamp duty tax holiday should trigger stronger than anticipated bounce in house demand

Impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on UK economic growth and business activity is undeniable, but the stimulus measures announced today will be key to boosting the housing market through the current downturn.

<p>Impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on UK economic growth and business activity is undeniable, but the stimulus measures announced today will be key to boosting the housing market through the current downturn.<b></b><br /></p>

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Spring 2021 Forecasts: Our Property Predictions

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