The government unveiled the draft Commonhold and Leasehold Reform Bill at the end of January. This follows the adoption of the Renters' Rights Act, which ends “no-fault” evictions, and the ban on upwards-only rent reviews in commercial leases. This proposed legislation represents a significant overhaul of residential property ownership structures, with the potential to impact over five million existing leaseholders.
The centrepiece of these reforms is a cap on ground rents at £250 annually from late 2028, dropping to a nominal peppercorn rate after 40 years. For many leaseholders currently facing escalating ground rents – particularly those trapped by doubling clauses – this provides substantial savings throughout their lease term as well as certainty over costs. The changes will be particularly welcomed by homeowners whose properties became difficult to mortgage or sell due to onerous ground rent terms.
The legislation also looks to abolish the controversial and widely criticised forfeiture system. Under current rules, leaseholders can lose their homes and equity over debts as low as £350. The new enforcement regime introduces a structured court process. Where properties must be sold, leaseholders will receive any balance after landlords' claims and mortgage debts are settled.
However, this retrospective capping of existing contractual arrangements is a significant departure from traditional legal principles and is likely to face legal challenges from investors who have acquired ground rent income streams in the past.
<h2>The End of New Leases</h2>
Building on the 2022 ban on new leasehold houses and ground rent ban on new flat leases, the Bill prohibits new leasehold flats entirely. Instead, newly built residential developments will use commonhold structures, where homeowners collectively own both their individual properties and a proportional share in the building itself. This offers greater control to those ultimately bearing the costs.
However, commonhold isn't without challenges, and despite being introduced in 2002 has seen low levels of take-up. Owners will still need to grapple with collective decision-making and shared responsibilities – issues familiar to anyone involved in right-to-manage companies or share of freehold arrangements. Owners of commonhold properties will also be legally responsible for building safety requirements, with failure to adhere to rules opening owners up to legal action, fines or even imprisonment. If commonhold owners don’t want to collectively manage their buildings, they may choose to engage a managing agent. However, management companies, used to dealing with single freeholders, may also find it more challenging and more costly to engage with multiple commonhold owners or committees, most of whom are unlikely to have previous property management experience. This lack of track record may also prove challenging for lenders, with newly established commonhold structures unable to demonstrate the managerial and financial track record larger management companies or freehold owners can offer. All of which means the success of commonhold will depend heavily on whether the updated framework addresses these practical complexities effectively.
For developers this also represents a fundamental shift away from the traditional model of retaining or selling on freehold ownership. However, the ban includes exemptions for ‘permitted leases’ which looks to include build-to-rent schemes, purpose-built student accommodation and social housing.
<h2>Conversion of Existing Leaseholds</h2>
Existing leaseholders aren't left behind. The reforms attempt to simplify conversion to commonhold, replacing the current unanimous consent requirement with a 50% threshold. Buildings will be able to maintain mixed ownership during transition periods, with mechanisms ensuring effective management whilst preserving rights for homeowners.
<h2>Implications </h2>
These changes will impact both leaseholders and those who invest, lend and develop in the sector. Freehold investors, including several pension funds, face reduced income streams, while developers lose a traditional revenue source from freehold sales, potentially affecting development viability.
For homebuyers, commonhold developments may become increasingly attractive due to enhanced transparency and owner control. But the ability to convert should prevent market segmentation between leasehold and commonhold properties.
For lenders, the transition period may also cause legal and valuation headaches. The removal of “marriage value” in lease extensions will significantly reduce the cost of extending a lease but also distorts long established and legally ratified approaches to valuation used to assess the differential in the value of short lease properties. This could lead to uncertainty around true value and cause issues for those looking to lend or secure finance on short lease properties.
<h2>Timeline</h2>
Currently in draft form, the legislation faces parliamentary scrutiny and likely legal challenges. The ground rent cap won't take effect until late 2028, providing time for market adjustment and legal resolution.
The transition presents challenges, particularly for existing investors, but the legislation promises greater security and control for millions of homeowners. Ultimately success will be measured by the extent to which these complex reforms deliver the improved homeownership experience the government promises, both for current leaseholders and future residents.
<h2>JLL Research</h2>
JLL’s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare and student housing.
Disclaimer: © 2026 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.

Implications of Leasehold Reform

PCL big ben

The government unveiled the draft Commonhold and Leasehold Reform Bill at the end of January. This follows the adoption of the Renters' Rights Act, which ends &ldquo;no-fault&rdquo; evictions, and the ban on upwards-only rent reviews in commercial leases. This proposed legislation represents a significant overhaul of residential property ownership structures, with the potential to impact over five million existing leaseholders.

https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1772693064/resi/gb/cms/News/Images/26-insights-implications-of-leasehold-reform.jpg

Big Six Residential Development Report 2026

The JLL Big Six Residential Development Report compares activity, prices, and rents across six UK cities: Birmingham, Bristol, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Leeds and Manchester. This report incorporates data from the JLL UK Cities index, comparing changes in prices and rents across mainstream and prime developments in each city.

https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1772001015/resi/gb/Articles/Images/big-6.jpg

JLL PCL Report – Q4 2025

https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1769054291/resi/gb/Articles/Images/PCL_big_ben.jpg

Hopes of a more settled geopolitical landscape in 2026 have been quickly dashed, with Trump&rsquo;s intervention in Venezuela, little progress on a peaceful resolution in Ukraine, the return of transatlantic friction over Greenland and distressing scenes in Iran leaving questions over the prospect of further US intervention.But there are signs that economically 2026 could prove more settled. The Budget is behind us and the promise of one fiscal event a year &ndash; and hopefully lessons learnt from the pre-Budget paralysis last year &ndash; mean we could see more activity this year. The Bank of England has hinted they expect inflation will drop back to levels at or close to their 2 per cent target by the end of 2026, with two or more rate cuts this year looking more likely. There was some promising news on GDP in November, recovering from an October contraction of 0.1 per cent to grow 0.3 per cent in November, a five-month high. It isn&rsquo;t always prudent to read too much into monthly GDP numbers, but the increase in
 November does point to modest growth rather than a contraction once the Q4 figures surface. The reopening of the Jaguar Land Rover production line supported the November figure (and fed into the negativity in October), with car manufacturing rising
 26 per cent month-on-month. For the housing market 2026 also brings some much-needed clarity on acronyms, with the NPPF, SAHP, RRA and rent settlement now published or expected to be released in Q1. We&rsquo;re forecasting a slow recovery rather than a step change in prices and
 activity this year. Our latest forecasts, published in early December, point to marginal growth of 2 per cent in prices and 2.5 per cent in rents this year. If you missed them, you can read more on our latest forecasts <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/insights/news/residential-forecasts-2025">here.</a>Market activityUK property transactions reached 100,350 in November, up 7.7 per cent annually and 1.3 per cent month-on-month, according to HMRC data. This sits just 1 per cent below the long-term pre-pandemic average (2013-2019). Rightmove&rsquo;s full year figures
 show sales agreed in 2025 were 3 per cent higher than 2024. But with transactions taking more than six months to progress from listing to exchange the slowdown in activity observed later in 2025 will take months to show up in the figures, meaning
 we&rsquo;re in for a few months of underwhelming figures, even if the market is feeling a little rosier.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1768581921/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Jan16-Chart2.jpg" /> The RICS survey provides a timelier picture of market sentiment. It has been decidedly gloomy of late, with uncertainty pre-Budget weighing heavily on respondents&rsquo; market outlook. But their December survey, the first post-Budget, looks more promising.
 December isn&rsquo;t the best month to take the temperature of the housing market, with little change in new instructions reported by RICS and the near-term outlook for prices remaining broadly flat, but a higher number of respondents are now expecting
 prices to rise in 2026. A net balance of +35 per cent of respondents expect an increase, up from +16 in October and +24 in November. Sales expectations rose too, with a net balance of 34 per cent of respondent expecting activity to increase in 2026,
 the highest reading since December 2024. Rents are expected to rise in 2026 too, with respondents to the survey forecasting growth of 3 per cent nationally in 2026. PricesBudget jitters acted as a dampener on house prices in the final months of 2025. Both Halifax and Nationwide reported UK house prices declining month-on-month in December, with Halifax showing a 0.6 per cent decrease and Nationwide recording a 0.4 per
 cent drop. Despite these monthly declines, annual price growth remained marginally positive at 0.3 per cent (Halifax) and 0.6 per cent (Nationwide) for the year ending December 2025. At a country and regional level prices in Q4 2025 rose in all areas
 bar East Anglia, where prices fell 0.8 per cent annually. Growth in the price of houses continues to outpace flats, with semi-detached houses recording 2.4 per cent growth annually, UK wide, compared with a 0.9 per cent fall for flats.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1768581921/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Jan16-Chart1.jpg" />RentsThe rental market followed typical seasonal patterns, with the final months traditionally bringing higher stock levels and modest rental adjustments. December 2025 saw average rents for new lets fall 1.5 per cent month-on-month, resulting in annual growth of 2.6 per cent for the year according to Homelet. The North East was the strongest English region at 6.6 per cent, Scotland recorded a solid 4.0 per cent annual increase, with Wales achieving 2.9 per cent growth over the same period.Mortgage marketUK mortgage approvals dipped in November, with 0.7 per cent fewer approvals month-on-month and 6.7 per cent fewer annually. But considering this coincided with the run up to the Budget, falls were more marginal than some predicted and the 12-month rolling rate remains resilient.This points to increased activity this year, supported by an increase in more competitive mortgage rates reaching the market. The effective interest rate on newly drawn mortgages averaged 4.20 per cent in November, down from 4.53 per cent in February, with best-buy fixed rates falling to 3.5 per cent in mid-January. JLL ResearchJLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare and student housing. <h5>Disclaimer: &copy; 2025 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.</h5>

Residential Roundup - 16 January

pcl-report-q3-2025

Discover the latest insights from Marcus Dixon in the first Residential Roundup of 2026 

Discover the latest insights from Marcus Dixon in the first Residential Roundup of 2026&nbsp;

https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1768581869/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Jan16-Hero.jpg

Renters' Rights Act

thumbnail

static-dining-3000x2000

The Renters&rsquo; Rights Bill (RRB) proposes significant reform within the private rental sector. The bill itself has been making fast progress through Parliament, having already passed through the House of Commons. It is now widely expected to come into effect from this&nbsp;spring onwards.&nbsp;

The Renters’ Rights Bill (RRB) proposes significant reform within the private rental sector. The bill itself has been making fast progress through Parliament, having already passed through the House of Commons. 

https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1728056777/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Renters-Rights-Bill-Update.jpg

The 2025 Budget provided clarity but little else to materially change our outlook for prices and rents. But a positive response from the bond markets and the Bank of England in rate cutting mode means we are seeing more competitive mortgage rates enter the market, which will, we expect, support activity and price growth over the next five years, albeit at the lower end of historic norms. Forecasts post-BudgetThe High Value Council Tax Surcharge is perhaps the least damaging to market activity of the proposed &lsquo;mansion&rsquo; taxes floated pre-budget. And while we expect that it may impact some buyers and homeowners&rsquo; decision to purchase, the annual
 charge is more likely to be begrudgingly absorbed rather than directly impacting decision-making. The 2% additional tax rate for property income also hits smaller landlords, many of whom have seen profit margins shrink and are facing additional regulatory hoops with the introduction of the Renters&rsquo; Rights Act. We expect this will further encourage landlords on the fence to exit, constraining supply and putting upward pressure on rents. The Budget contained many references to growth, but there were few clear policies that signalled it, a view shared by the OBR in their downbeat forecast for growth and productivity.&nbsp; So, in the absence of any demand side incentives for housing we are relying on an improvement in wider market conditions to support growth. Here there is some more positive news, with the Bank of England now in the rate cutting phase of the cycle, and
 expectation for up to three further cuts to the Base Rate by next summer. An easing in rates and some improvements in housing affordability, with house prices having underperformed wage growth, will help here too. But we expect this will mean a recovery
 to long term norms, rather than any significant outperformance.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1765745114/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Forecasts-Map.jpg" />House pricesJLL forecast house prices will rise by 20% over the next five years UK-wide. More affordable regions are expected to outperform in the near-term, with London and southern England forecast to see stronger growth towards the back end of our five-year period.
Overall, we expect growth of 17.6% across Greater London between 2026 and 2030, compared with 23.4% in the strongest performing English region the North West. Scotland and Wales, usually seeing stronger growth at the tail end of the housing cycle are
 expected to see prices rise by 24.6% and 23.4%, respectively. For central London, clarity around taxation, and the absence of some of the more draconian policies floated pre-Budget will confine the most significant price falls to 2025. JLL&rsquo;s central London sales business had its busiest month in 17 months
 in November, with anxious central London buyers holding off until the Budget now transacting. Price falls in central London are expected to bottom out in H1 2026, as fears of more onerous tax changes subside post-Budget. But with a more domestic focussed buyer pool still looking for value we don&rsquo;t expect this will translate into meaningful
 price increase until later in the five-year forecast period. Meaning prices ending 2026 flat and rising 17% in the five years to 2030.JLL house price forecast<table style="border-collapse:collapse;width:100%;"><thead><tr style="background-color:#5a9bb0;color:white;"><th style="border:1px solid white;padding:10px;text-align:center;" data-role="resizable"></th><th style="border:1px solid white;padding:10px;text-align:center;">2025</th><th style="border:1px solid white;padding:10px;text-align:center;">2026</th><th style="border:1px solid white;padding:10px;text-align:center;">2027</th><th style="border:1px solid white;padding:10px;text-align:center;">2028</th><th style="border:1px solid white;padding:10px;text-align:center;">2029</th><th style="border:1px solid white;padding:10px;text-align:center;">2030</th><th style="border:1px solid white;padding:10px;text-align:center;">Change 2026- 2030</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr style="background-color:#e8e8e8;"><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;font-weight:bold;background-color:#c8d6db;">UK</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">1.5%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">2.0%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">4.0%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">4.5%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">4.5%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">3.5%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">19.9%</td></tr><tr><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;font-weight:bold;background-color:#c8d6db;">Greater London</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">-1.0%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">1.0%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">2.5%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">3.5%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">5.0%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">4.5%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">17.6%</td></tr><tr style="background-color:#e8e8e8;"><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;font-weight:bold;background-color:#c8d6db;">Central London</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">-5.0%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">0.0%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">2.0%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">4.0%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">5.0%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">5.0%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">17.0%</td></tr></tbody></table>Source: JLL ResearchRental marketThe additional tax burden for landlords post-Budget, alongside concerns over the implementation of the Renters&rsquo; Rights Act will mean constrained supply continues, as more landlords exit than enter the sector, supporting rental growth. We forecast rents will rise at marginally above wage growth over the next five years, with 15.9% growth between 2026 and 2030 nationally. A more settled outlook for inflation and wages means our expectations on rental growth are more muted than recent highs. However, this reflects a return to pre-pandemic norms rather than a fundamental shift in market dynamics. Rental growth is forecast to be marginally higher in London, with growth of 17% across Greater London and 16.5% in central London over the same period.JLL rental growth forecast <table style="border-collapse:collapse;width:100%;"><thead><tr style="background-color:#8db89a;color:black;"><th style="border:1px solid white;padding:10px;text-align:center;"></th><th style="border:1px solid white;padding:10px;text-align:center;" data-role="resizable">2025</th><th style="border:1px solid white;padding:10px;text-align:center;">2026</th><th style="border:1px solid white;padding:10px;text-align:center;">2027</th><th style="border:1px solid white;padding:10px;text-align:center;">2028</th><th style="border:1px solid white;padding:10px;text-align:center;">2029</th><th style="border:1px solid white;padding:10px;text-align:center;">2030</th><th style="border:1px solid white;padding:10px;text-align:center;">Change 2026- 2030</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr style="background-color:#e8e8e8;"><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;font-weight:bold;background-color:#b8d0c1;">UK</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">3.0%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">2.5%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">2.5%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">3.0%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">3.5%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">3.5%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">15.9%</td></tr><tr><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;font-weight:bold;background-color:#b8d0c1;">Greater London</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">3.5%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">2.0%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">3.0%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">3.5%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">4.0%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">3.5%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">17.0%</td></tr><tr style="background-color:#e8e8e8;"><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;font-weight:bold;background-color:#b8d0c1;">Central London</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">2.5%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">1.5%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">3.0%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">3.0%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">4.0%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">4.0%</td><td style="border:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px;text-align:center;">16.5%</td></tr></tbody></table>Source: JLL ResearchJLL ResearchJLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare and student housing. Disclaimer: &copy; 2025 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.

Residential Forecasts

Discover the latest insights from Marcus Dixon in this week's Residential Roundup, including our latest 2026-2030 forecasts.

https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1765745128/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Forecasts-Hero.jpg

Discussions on the health of the UK economy and housing market recently have been dominated by Budget uncertainty and unanswered questions around the Social &amp; Affordable Homes Programme and rent convergence. While we're still awaiting clarity on these
 two, with the Budget behind us, we can now refocus on underlying market fundamentals.JLL recently held a series of client seminars around the country in partnership with Trowers &amp; Hamlins. Together, we explored the state of the housing market, the latest challenges and opportunities in loan security valuations, and current and emerging
 legal issues surrounding charging and treasury for Registered Providers.
To read our reflections on the 2025 seminars and our outlook for the sector <a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1765745664/resi/gb/Articles/Images/JLL_Affordable_Housing_Seminar_Reflections.pdf">CLICK HERE</a>

Affordable Housing Q4 2025

Discussions on the health of the UK economy and housing market recently have been dominated by Budget uncertainty and unanswered questions around the Social &amp; Affordable Homes Programme and rent convergence. While we're still awaiting clarity on these two, with the Budget behind us, we can now refocus on underlying market fundamentals.

https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1765745659/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Aff-Housing-Hero.jpg

This was always going to be a balancing act Budget, attempting to keep the party, markets (read bond yields) and the electorate happy. There were some clear concessions to Labour backbenchers, including the abolition of the two-child benefit cap, but it was clear &ndash; even before the Budget began thanks to the OBR - that this would be a Budget of multiple small changes rather than a handful of wide-ranging (but manifesto busting) hikes to income tax or VAT.Confidence returnsThe property industry was not alone in needing clarity after months of speculation that had slowed activity. Simply knowing what would and wouldn't change should provide hesitant buyers and sellers with some confidence to re-enter the market.For the housing market, there were clear (and missed) chances to go further in supporting transactions and unlocking much-needed development. Reforming taxes such as stamp duty, which continues to hold up the market by discouraging people from moving,
 would have made a meaningful difference. Targeted support at the entry level would have made a far greater difference to market mobility, particularly with the OBR acknowledging they expect further falls in housing net additions through to 2027. However, bond markets have reacted positively, suggesting yields may fall further, creating opportunities for rate cuts. While we didn't see demand-side stimulus, we could still see a rise in activity through more competitive debt costs next year.OBR forecastsThe OBR is expecting UK GDP to rise 1.5 per cent this year, up from the 1 per cent forecast in the Spring. House prices growth is expected to broadly track nominal earning growth over the forecast period, rising from &pound;260,000 in 2024 to &pound;305,000
 in 2030. Transactions are expected to rise to around 1.3 million by 2029, up from 1.1 million in 2024, but down by more than 155,000 per annum on the March forecast. Key changes for housingWith so much kite flying pre-Budget, clarity around what changes might be introduced for our sector was much welcome. Rumours of changes to or the removal of Stamp Duty or wide-ranging council tax revaluation were notable in their absence. Overall, we
 could have seen more damaging policies introduced, particularly those impacting the top end of the market, but similarly there was little in the Budget which looked set to dramatically change the trajectory of the market. So, what&rsquo;s changing?
Tax rates for income from rental propertiesFrom April 2027, property income tax rates will increase by two percentage points. Basic rate taxpayers will pay 22%, higher rate 42%, and additional rate 47%. Note that landlords owning properties through limited companies face different rates.These increases risk worsening the supply-demand imbalance in private rental markets. Smaller landlords, already pressured by higher taxes and changing regulations, may choose to exit rather than absorb additional costs&mdash;reducing supply and potentially
 increasing rents.High Value Council Tax Surcharge<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1764248701/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Budget-Roundup-1.jpg" />A new surcharge of between &pound;2,500 and &pound;7,500 per annum from 2028 is perhaps the least painful of the mansion tax proposals mooted in the run-up to the Budget but still targets a sector of the market which has seen continued hikes in taxations
 and stagnation in prices over the past decade. While it may cause some existing homeowners to consider downsizing the likelihood of it making a significant difference to buyers&rsquo; behaviour are limited. Key details<ul><li>Expected to raise around &pound;430 million per year (Council Tax revenues top &pound;40 billion)</li><li>Takes effect in April 2028 and based on the value of properties in 2026. </li><li>A public consultation on the details relating to the surcharge, including reliefs and exemptions is planned for early next year.</li><li>Homeowners, not tenants, will be liable for the surcharge (different from Council Tax which is payable by the occupier). </li><li>The Valuation Office will conduct a targeted valuation to identify properties above &pound;2 million, with revaluations conducted every five years.</li><li>Revenue will be collected alongside Council Tax but will go directly into central government coffers.</li></ul><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1764248701/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Budget-Roundup-2.jpg" />The impact falls disproportionately on London and the South East, which accounted for 90% of &pound;2 million plus sales last year. Previous mansion tax proposals in 2014 aimed to raise &pound;1.2 billion through similar measures, averaging &pound;11,000 per property annually&mdash;nearly three times the current HVCTS rate.It is also worth noting that London boroughs with some of the highest proportion of &pound;2 million plus homes also have some of the lowest council tax. A &pound;2 million Wandsworth property owner facing the additional &pound;2,500 charge currently pays &pound;1,210 annually in Band E council tax. Compare this to a Band E home in Nottingham&mdash;likely below the HVCTS threshold&mdash;where owners pay &pound;3,246 in council tax. The total bill difference narrows to just &pound;464.Other things to watch<ul><li>Early 2026 consultation on replacing the Lifetime ISA with a simpler product&mdash;particularly relevant to London given the &pound;450,000 limit.</li><li>Consultation on potential changes to VAT rules for land intended for social housing. &nbsp;</li><li>Warm Homes Plan &ndash; an additional &pound;1.5bn to help homeowners improve the energy efficiency of their properties.</li><li>Roll back on potential changes to landfill tax &ndash; thankfully avoiding further costs for viability stretched developers.</li></ul>Moving forwardWith the Budget concluded and no major fiscal events planned for a year, greater certainty should help restart market activity. If markets continue responding positively, we could see rates drop more rapidly, easing debt cost burdens across the sector. But to fulfil the government&rsquo;s ambition of building 1.5 million homes we&rsquo;ll need to see more on increasing delivery, improving viability, and demonstrating clear and sustained demand for homes across all sectors of the UK housing market.JLL ResearchJLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare and student housing. <h5>Disclaimer: &copy; 2025 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.</h5>

Residential Roundup - 27 November

Discover the latest insights from Marcus Dixon in this week's Budget Special Residential Roundup, as we dive into the Chancellor's housing market impact 

Discover the latest insights from Marcus Dixon in this week's Budget Special Residential Roundup, as we dive into the Chancellor's housing market impact&nbsp;

https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/w_1920,c_limit,q_auto:good,f_auto,fl_progressive/v1764248717/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Budget-Roundup-Hero.jpg

JLL PCL Report – Q3 2025

https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/w_1920,c_limit,q_auto:good,f_auto,fl_progressive/v1760586794/resi/gb/PCL%20Q3%202025/pcl-report-q3-2025.jpg

What Rayner&rsquo;s departure &ndash; triggered by Stamp Duty &ndash; means for property taxes in the autumn Budget is unclear. What is, is the need for good advice. Let&rsquo;s hope for more clarity in the run up to the Budget on 26 November.UK economy stagnates<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1755866562/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Sept12-Chart2.jpg" />UK GDP appears to be following a similar path this year to last, with stronger growth earlier on in the year petering out over the summer. The latest monthly GDP figures show growth stagnated in July, following a rise of 0.4 per cent in June, taking growth
 in the three monthly to July to 0.2 per cent. Tariffs, employer NI and potential tax changes in the Budget will all be impacting figures here, but it is important to take these monthly GDP figures with a heavy pinch of salt. They are often revised
 and tend to fluctuate month-on-month. Bond market headacheThe Chancellor will be acutely aware of recent bond market volatility. Long-dated UK gilts &ndash; essentially IOUs from the government &ndash; hit a 27-year peak in early September, with 30-year gilt yields just shy of 5.7 per cent. But rates have eased
 somewhat since then, with the latest 30-year figure now sitting below 5.45 per cent. Rising gilt yields directly increase government's debt servicing costs, creating a challenging fiscal backdrop and increasing the chance of further tax rises and/or spending cuts. This has implication for the housing market too, more directly through
 fixed rates, which are less likely to see any significant reduction while bond yields remain elevated, but also in terms of fiscal headroom. With much hoped for demand side incentives somewhat reliant on a healthier Treasury balance sheet. Recent increases in long-dated bond yields aren't solely a UK phenomenon &ndash; other major economies have experienced similar upward movements in recent months. However, there are several UK-specific elements that cannot be overlooked, demonstrated
 by UK gilt yields moving from a middle-ranking position against other G7 nations' 30-year government bonds to amongst the highest.While scepticism surrounding persistent inflation and Britain's economic prospects certainly plays a role, the story runs deeper. There's been a marked decline in appetite for long-dated bonds from pension funds and insurers &ndash; traditionally the
 most reliable buyers of government debt. This has left fewer purchasers in the marketplace. Adding to this challenge, recent modifications to UK pension regulations &ndash; ironically introduced to stimulate investment in growth assets &ndash; have
 further dampened demand.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1755866562/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Sept12-Chart1.jpg" />All that glittersWith an uncertain outlook globally, investors are flocking to safe-haven assets, reflected in the recent rally in gold prices. Spot gold prices exceeded US $3,500 per ounce in early September, with values up by nearly a third so far this year. Comparing
 gold prices with UK housing clearly demonstrates not only the recent outperformance but also the relative value in UK real estate. A decade ago, the average UK home cost the equivalent of 253 ounces of gold, in September with the price of gold exceeding
 &pound;2,600 per ounce the average home could be bought for the equivalent of less than 100 ounces. Housing marketWe&rsquo;d expected fewer new mortgage advances in Q2 following the pre-1 April SDLT changes, with gross advances dropping 24 per cent on Q1 levels to their lowest since Q1 2024. Nothing to get too het up about though, as overall activity in H1 was up
 by almost &pound;25bn or 18 per cent on H1 2024. Of greater interest were the new commitments figures (an indicator of future advances), which rallied, having plateaued in Q1. In Q2 more than &pound;78 billion of new lending was agreed, up 15 per
 cent on Q1 and 17 per cent higher than the same period a year earlier. This was the highest quarter since pre-mini budget in Q3 2022.The RICS Survey has made for gloomy reading in recent months, and the August edition was no different. The short-term outlook for prices and activity remains downbeat, due in part to the quieter summer period but also increasingly uncertainty around what
 could happen in the Budget. Despite many of the key fundamentals being in a stronger position than they have been for some time (more stock, more motivated sellers and more options for borrowers) the temptation to sit on one&rsquo;s hands remains, with Budget speculation doing little
 to tempt buyers out of the long grass. It is a similar story for the rental market, with the latest RICS survey reporting demand holding steady with marginally more respondents seeing demand rise than fall. At the same time new landlord instructions remained firmly in negative territory, with
 a net balance of -37 per cent the weakest reported for over five years. With less stock reaching the market respondents were more positive on the outlook for rental growth over prices, with a net balance of +27 per cent of respondents expecting rents
 to rise in the next three months. For prices the short-term outlook was more negative but more still expected prices to rise than fall over the next 12 months.&nbsp;<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1755866562/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Sept12-Chart3.jpg" />Renters&rsquo; Rights Bill The Renters&rsquo; Right Bill returned to the Commons on 8 September, edging closer to gaining Royal Assent. Most of the amendments suggested by the House of Lords were rejected. Amendments which ended up on the cutting room floor included the ability
 to charge higher deposits for tenants wanting pets, the inclusion of military housing, and the extension of student exemptions to smaller one- and two-bedroom properties. It&rsquo;s now back with the Lords, who&rsquo;ll have another chance to tweak
 the recommendations before returning to the Commons. Expect further back and forth as we keep you updated on progress over the coming weeks.New researchOur residential research team has been busy this summer, with our latest Big Six Residential Development Report, Buyers and Tenants Survey and our Landlord Survey all released in recent weeks. If you missed any of our latest reports <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/insights">click here.</a> JLL Research<h5>JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare
 and student housing. </h5><h5>Disclaimer: &copy; 2025 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as
 to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any
 means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right
 to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.</h5>

Residential Roundup - 12 September

PSG-Holdings

It&rsquo;s been a busy couple of weeks in Westminster. A changing of the Labour guard has seen Angela Rayner depart from her three posts as Deputy Prime Minister, Deputy Labour Party Leader and Housing Secretary.

It’s been a busy couple of weeks in Westminster. A changing of the Labour guard has seen Angela Rayner depart from her three posts as Deputy Prime Minister, Deputy Labour Party Leader and Housing Secretary.

It&rsquo;s been a busy couple of weeks in Westminster. A changing of the Labour guard has seen Angela Rayner depart from her three posts as Deputy Prime Minister, Deputy Labour Party Leader and Housing Secretary. David Lammy takes on the Deputy Prime Minister role, Steve Reed replaces her as Housing Secretary and hustings have begun for the Deputy Leader post.&nbsp;

https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/w_1920,c_limit,q_auto:good,f_auto,fl_progressive/v1757687966/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Sept12-Hero.jpg

Buyers and Tenants Survey Report

GettyImages-1351094169

https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1756897342/resi/gb/Articles/Images/buyers-and-tenants-survey-report.jpg

Big Six Residential Report – Summer 2025

https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1756710738/resi/gb/Articles/big-six-residential-report-summer-2025.jpg

One of the proposals replaces SDLT with a new national tax to be paid by owner occupiers on houses worth more than &pound;500,000 when they sell their home. The proposed levy would vary dependent upon the value of the property, but the complexity of implementation
 would mean it would take years rather than months to phase out the current system. And with a government looking for an increase in income in the short term, it could well find itself back on the shelf.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1755866562/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Aug22-Chart1.jpg" />Many in the industry (including us here at JLL) have been advocating for an overhaul of property taxes for some time now. So, news that in advance of the budget the Treasury is looking at different aspects of property taxation should be welcomed. However,
 the focus on higher value properties, a sector of the market where purchasers are often most discretionary, could lead to some shelving their plans until we have further clarity. Not helpful for an already sluggish market. The case for stamp duty reformStamp Duty on residential property added more than &pound;10bn to government coffers in the year to March. But an increase in buying costs has meant fewer homes transacting, bad news for labour mobility and the many industries which rely on an active
 and fully functioning housing market. This is particularly true for London, which accounts for just over 10 per cent of UK sales but more than 40 per cent of SDLT revenues. An overhaul of buying costs (SDLT) and holding costs (mainly council tax) is long overdue. But setting new valuation thresholds (effectively valuing every home) has been put in the &lsquo;too difficult&rsquo; pile each time it&rsquo;s been mooted by governments
 of all colours since the first set of 1991 property values were applied.The latest idea purportedly under consideration takes inspiration from the work by think-tank Onward, which advocates replacing stamp duty and council tax (in part) with a national property tax for homes valued at more than &pound;500,000. This would
 roll up and be paid once the property was sold. Revenues would be split between local government and the Treasury, with a minimum rate set to mirror revenue currently collected through council tax, effectively shifting the current purchasing cost
 (SDLT) to a sales cost (national tax). An obvious advantage for those purchasing their first home or upsizing but doing little to encourage downsizing.Proposals exempt social housing, with tax for tenanted properties paid by the owner rather than the occupier (meaning private landlords with homes valued at over &pound;500,000 would pay rather than the tenant &ndash; albeit likely just added to rent).
 The challenge for government will be keeping the Office for Budget Responsibility happy, as the scrapping of SDLT could result in lower revenues in the short term.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1755866562/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Aug22-Chart2.jpg" />Housing marketAll this speculation isn&rsquo;t helpful for a market where buyers remain cautious - the latest residential survey from the RICS painting a gloomy picture for activity in July. Rightmove figures, while still mixed, are a bit more positive, particularly for those vendors willing to be more realistic with their asking prices. There&rsquo;s more stock on the market this year than last, with homes for sale up 10 per cent, a ten-year high. More choice means properties not priced competitively are failing to attract buyers, with more than a third of properties for sale having been reduced in price, the highest for two years. Asking prices dropped 1.3 per cent in August, in line with the usual seasonal trend, albeit following more substantial price cuts in June and July. Asking prices are now almost &pound;10,800 lower than they were last summer.&nbsp; But more competitive asking prices are encouraging buyers to commit, with sales agreed in July up 8 per cent on the same period in 2024 and their highest since 2020. Latest figures from the ONS put UK house prices 3.9 per cent higher annually in June, up from a revised 2.7 per cent in May. Private rents rose 5.9 per cent in the year to July according to ONS figures, with the rate of growth slowing to levels last seen in early 2023. Rents for new lets remained broadly unchanged over the last 12 months, with Homelet data showing rents 0.4 per cent higher this July than last. In other newsUK inflation rose to 3.8 per cent in July. This was marginally above the 3.7 per cent consensus forecast but in line with the latest Bank of England view, which expects UK inflation to peak at 4 per cent in September. Food, fuel and airfares appear to be the main culprits in July, all of which came in hotter than forecasters had predicted.What this means for the rate cutting cycle is far from clear, it likely narrows the odds on a further cut in September, but there will be two further data releases prior to the November meeting, where expectations remain broadly positive for a further 25bps drop. JLL Research<h5>JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare and student housing. </h5><h5>Disclaimer: &copy; 2025 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.</h5>

Residential Roundup - 22 August

The Autumn Budget is still more than two months off, but the rumour mill is in full swing. Press reports suggest the government is considering a replacement for Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT), a new fairer approach to council tax and a revision to Capital Gains Tax for higher value homes.

The Autumn Budget is still more than two months off, but the rumour mill is in full swing.

The Autumn Budget is still more than two months off, but the rumour mill is in full swing. Press reports suggest the government is considering a replacement for Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT), a new fairer approach to council tax and a revision to Capital Gains Tax for higher value homes.

https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1755866617/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Aug22-Hero.jpg

Halifax figures are also showing a 2.4 per cent annual rise in July. Mortgage approvals are rising too, with more than 64,000 mortgages approved in June, activity returning to pre-pandemic norms (when rates were significantly lower than they are now).Housing marketThe number of homes sold in June rose 13 per cent on May, with the impact of the 1 April Stamp Duty changes now dissipating.&nbsp; H1 figures show an 18 per cent annual increase in sales nationally, with June sales up 5 per cent year on year.&nbsp; Affordability is improving, at least on paper, with the average house price to income ratio hitting a ratio of 5.75 - a ten-year low. This is down from a high of 6.9 in 2022. Although elevated mortgage rates mean affordability remains more challenging
 for those looking to get onto the ladder. But sellers are having to be more realistic on price. Latest figures from Rightmove show average asking prices dropped by 1.2 per cent in July, equating to an average &pound;4,500 reduction. A reduction in July isn&rsquo;t unusual but the scale of the
 reduction is, with Rightmove reporting the highest July fall in more than twenty years of data. London saw the highest monthly fall, with asking prices 1.5 per cent lower in July than June. This is driven by central London and follows a similar trend
 to that observed in our latest <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/insights/research/jll-pcl-report-q2-2025">PCL report.</a>News from the MPCThe big news of the week was always going to be the Bank Rate.&nbsp; While there were some wobbles, the long-term expectation had always been that August would see a 25bps fall, with the Monetary Policy Committee confirming a lowering of rates to 4 per
 cent on 7 August.&nbsp; While the result wasn&rsquo;t really a surprise, there were more hawks than expected this time round, with members of the Monetary Policy Committee only narrowly voting through the 25bps cut through by five votes to four. The remaining four all felt rates
 should remain at 4.25 per cent (with one of the rate cutters initially voting for a 50bps reduction).This latest cut is unlikely to be a game changer for mortgage rates, with the August fall all but factored in. That said, effective interest rates on newly drawn mortgages fell for the fourth consecutive month in June, down to 4.34 per cent. Lifetime
 Capital is quoting best-buy rates at sub-3.8 per cent for those borrowers viewed upon most favourably by lenders.&nbsp; Consensus forecasts expect one further 25bps cut in 2025 and another in H1 2026, taking us to a 3.5 per cent rate by mid-year 2026.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1754643912/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Aug8-Chart2.jpg" />Bricks versus concreteThose in government and those of us in the housebuilding sector will be hoping some of the positivity around lower rates feeds through into the new homes market this autumn.In our <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/insights/news/residential-roundup-18-july">last Roundup</a> we discussed the latest Molior figures for London, with delays and additional financial pressures associated with &lsquo;high
 risk&rsquo; buildings and the arduous Gateway process culminating in a drop off in flatted urban development.&nbsp; But the challenge isn&rsquo;t just a London one, or indeed just residential. The latest S&amp;P Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) shows a slowdown in activity across their three monitored construction sectors, civil engineering, commercial and residential.
 Respondents cited a lack of tender opportunities and a hesitancy from customers to commit to projects. Supply chain figures from the Mineral Products Association (MPA) echo the drop off in delivery. Sales of ready-mixed concrete fell 11.5 per cent in Q2 2025 compared with Q1, are down by a third in the last ten years and are at their lowest, lockdown aside,
 for 63 years. Brick deliveries are showing more of a mixed picture. Seasonally adjusted monthly data shows 5 per cent fewer bricks delivered in June than May, but activity was up 16 per cent annually, marginally up on the +15 per cent recorded in May. Deliveries are
 on an upward trajectory, with annual figures the highest for two-years, but we&rsquo;ve still got some way to go to get back to pre-pandemic norms.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1754643910/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Aug8-Chart1.jpg" />JLL Research<h5>JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare
 and student housing. </h5><h5>Disclaimer: &copy; 2025 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as
 to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any
 means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right
 to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.</h5>

Residential Roundup - 8 August

After dropping back in June, house prices saw their highest monthly increase for six months in July, with the Nationwide index showing prices rising 2.4 per cent annually, up from 2.1 per cent the previous month.

https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1754643875/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Aug8-Hero.jpg

Landlord Survey 2025

The 2025 JLL Landlord Survey was conducted to better understand the challenges landlords are currently facing and how these will influence their plans over the short and medium term.

https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1753427759/resi/gb/cms/Research/Images/GettyImages-1351094169.jpg

Markets still appear to be on the side of the doves, expecting a further reduction in the bank rate next month, but recent announcements on the UK economy have muddied the waters.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1752846331/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-July18-Chart1.png" />Inflation, which came in a little hotter than many had expected in June, could trouble the MPC. CPI rose 3.6 per cent, with the three f&rsquo;s: fuel, flights and food all contributing. Yet despite inflation rising, GDP, jobs and wage growth all fell
 back in the latest numbers. Growth in UK GDP, which had shown some promise in Q1 fell for the second consecutive month in May, down 0.1 per cent, following a -0.3 per cent reading in April. Real GDP is still expected to have grown 0.5 per cent in
 the three months to May, albeit much of this is down to a stronger Q1. But the outlook for UK GDP has improved marginally this year, with consensus forecasts expecting 1 per cent growth this year, up from 0.8 per cent in 2024. Wage growth dropped back in the latest figures, with average earnings excluding bonuses 5 per cent higher in the three months to May compared with the same period a year earlier. This was lower than the 5.3 per cent recorded in April. The ONS Labour Force
 Survey, which I&rsquo;d approach with caution due to low participation rates at present, showed unemployment rose to 4.7 per cent in the three months to May, up from 4.6 per cent a month earlier.Fallout from the rise in employers&rsquo; national insurance, combined with ongoing uncertainty around tariffs and the health of the global economy has seen the number of payrolled staff fall in May, with a 25,000 reduction in May versus April. Yet this
 is lower than previous estimates of more than a 100,000 drop. The latest major announcement was the loss of 500 jobs at Jaguar Land Rover, which posted an 11 per cent reduction in quarterly sales following the pausing of US exports. Early estimates suggest we could see a further reduction in June, with the number of payrolled staff expected to be 178,000 lower in June this year than last, or a reduction of 0.6 per cent. This follows a fall in job vacancies for the 36th consecutive month, albeit setting aside pandemic disruptions, we remain at or above long run norms.News from Mansion HouseIn her annual speech to business leaders at Mansion House, the Chancellor&rsquo;s key theme was loosening regulation to turbocharge growth. Much of the emphasis was around supporting our ailing IPO sector and encouraging investment in the UK stock market
 rather than cash ISAs, albeit not as previously trailed limiting the cash ISA allowance (yet).&nbsp;<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1752846331/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-July18-Chart2.png" />For the housing market, there was some loosening agreed too. Income thresholds for those applying for certain first-time buyer mortgages will be lowered and more mortgages will be available at over 4.5 times income. A move which is expected to provide
 up to 36,000 additional mortgages to first-time buyers in its first year. In addition, a new mortgage guarantee scheme has been confirmed to ensure the ongoing availability of loans at 90 and 95 per cent loan-to-value to assist prospective buyers
 with lower deposits. &nbsp; Where have all the flats gone?There was some encouraging news in the latest S&amp;P Purchasing Managers Index. While overall construction activity remained in contractionary territory housebuilding moved into growth territory for the first time since September 2024. But an increase in activity, which will be welcomed by a government sticking steadfastly to their 1.5 million homes target, is not evident in our cities. Ongoing viability challenges, particularly around &lsquo;High Risk&rsquo; buildings &ndash; those
 at 18 metres or seven storeys high &ndash; and increasing frustrations with the Gateway process and the Building Safety Regulator mean activity is falling.Figures from Molior London show there were fewer than 2,200 private homes started across London in H1 2025, the equivalent of fewer than 5% of the 44,000 private homes target. In the second quarter of 2025, 23 London Boroughs saw no schemes of 20 or more
 private homes start.&nbsp;<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1752846331/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-July18-Chart3.png" />But 2025 figures follow recent trends, with activity across London dropping back since the peak in 2015. Analysis of new homes sales shows that there have been 7,500 more sales than starts in the last five years, with the number of homes under construction across Greater London falling by a third in the last five years. This will have implication for future completions, with Molior London expecting fewer than 10,000 private homes will complete in 2027 and 2028 combined. JLL ResearchJLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare and student housing. <h5>Disclaimer: &copy; 2025 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.</h5>

Residential Roundup - 18 July

jll-residential-roundup-banner

As has become customary, anticipation is building in the run-up to the 7 August meeting of the Bank of England&rsquo;s Monetary Policy Committee.

As has become customary, anticipation is building in the run-up to the 7 August meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee.

As has become customary, anticipation is building in the run-up to the 7 August meeting of the Bank of England&rsquo;s Monetary Policy Committee.

https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1752846373/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-July18-Hero.jpg

JLL PCL Report – Q2 2025

https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1752769788/resi/gb/Articles/Images/GettyImages-865966686.jpg

Zoopla is reporting sales agreed in the four weeks to mid-June are up 6 per cent annually, but stock levels continue to rise more quickly than demand, meaning increases in activity are not driving significant price rises.House prices Nationwide's house price index shows prices dipped 0.8 per cent in June compared with May, meaning annual growth in prices dropped back from 3.5 per cent in May to 2.1 per cent last month. Expect to see annual averages increase a little in the coming
 months as the market continues to settle.Zoopla reported asking prices rose 1.4 per cent annually in May, with stock on the market up 14 per cent year-on-year. This outpaced new buyer demand, rising by 7 per cent over the same period. Higher value markets saw the most marked increase in stock
 for sale, with activity at the top end of the market more sluggish than at the lower end. Prices in areas where house prices average under &pound;200k rose 2.7 per cent compared with falls of 0.7 per cent in areas where prices top &pound;500k.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1751631279/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-July4-Chart1.png" />Market activity Mortgage approvals numbers began to recover in May, rising 3.9 per cent month-on-month on a slow April and 3 per cent higher than May 2024. But these numbers point to a steady rise in activity rather than a significant uptick. Average rates paid on new
 loans fell in May to 4.47 per cent with sub-4 per cent rates now available for both two- and five-year fixes for those with higher deposits. Forecasters are still anticipating up to two further rate cuts this year, taking the bank rate to 3.75% by
 the year end, but uncertainty around swap rates means that we are not expecting to see further significant falls in best buy rates in the near term.Following a slow post-SDLT April, transactions recovered in May. Seasonally adjusted figures show there were 25 per cent more sales in May than April, but volumes remained 12 per cent lower than the May figure a year ago.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1751631279/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-July4-Chart2.png" />What does this mean for our outlook? The time taken to sell a home (from listing to completion) now exceeds 200 days according to research by TwentyEA. This means homeowners listing their homes today would be expected to pick up the keys to their new home in late January 2026.As well as increasing the likelihood of a sale falling through &ndash; time is often the killer of deals - this means that prices achieved on completion for homes in 2025 will largely reflect offers already accepted by vendors. As a result, even if we see a pick-up in activity later in the year, with more competitive mortgage rates and improved buyer confidence increasing activity, this uptick will be reflected in the 2026 rather than 2025 stats.Our forecasts for this year, made back in November, were for a gradual recovery in prices, aided by more competitive mortgage rates and political certainty following a Labour majority at the General Election. While the benefits of a strong majority have been tested in recent weeks and the outlook for the UK economy remains underwhelming, the housing market continues to follow a path of slow but steady recovery.Despite the stamp duty changes muddying the waters more recently, we are leaving our current forecasts for 3.5 per cent annual growth in UK prices in 2025 unchanged. Similarly, our expectations that higher value markets would lag in 2025 are still evident in the latest house price data, meaning we still expect that price growth in London will be more modest, rising by 2.5 per cent in 2025.A different story in Central London The only market where we are revising our 2025 forecast is Central London. Ongoing uncertainty around government plans to tax (or not) non-doms on their global assets means fewer prospective buyers at the top end of the market this summer. Here at JLL we've seen 8 per cent fewer new applicants registering with our offices in Q2 this year versus last, with LonRes data showing the numbers of sales so far this year at &pound;5million or more are down 14 per cent and &pound;10million plus sales down 20 per cent.Sold prices (excluding new homes) fell 3.9 per cent annually across Prime Central London in Q2 2025, meaning our expectations for 3 per cent growth by the year end is increasingly unlikely. Additional tax liabilities for overseas buyers and those buying additional properties from April, alongside ongoing uncertainty around the non-dom regime, are all impacting buyer appetite. A U-turn on the exposure of non-doms' global assets to UK inheritance tax could help, but many will be waiting for further clarity before making their decision to stay, go or relocate. In the meantime, buyers remain cautious and stock levels in the second-hand market, up 13 per cent annually, are outstripping demand.Relative scarcity of stock in the new homes market in central London means we are not seeing any notable reduction in prices, but activity remains skewed towards owner-occupiers and needs-based purchasers rather than investors, with sales volumes lower than historic norms.We expect some markets - particularly those neighbourhoods more reliant upon high-net-worth overseas buyers - will see prices end the year lower than they started, but others could see small single digit annual increases this year. This means overall we expect prices to be flat in 2025, with growth of 2 per cent forecast in 2026.The slowdown in rental growth experienced across most UK markets is following the path we forecast in November, so we'll be maintaining our current forecast for growth nationally of 3.0 per cent in 2025.JLL ResearchJLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare and student housing. Disclaimer: &copy; 2025 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.

Residential Roundup - 4 July

Three months on from the March stamp duty deadline and the housing market is gradually emerging from the SDLT fog. Zoopla is reporting sales agreed in the four weeks to mid-June are up 6 per cent annually, but stock levels continue to rise more quickly than demand, meaning increases in activity are not driving significant price rises.

Three months on from the March stamp duty deadline and the housing market is gradually emerging from the SDLT fog. 

Three months on from the March stamp duty deadline and the housing market is gradually emerging from the SDLT fog.

https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1751631292/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-July4-Hero.jpg

This wasn&rsquo;t unexpected, with the impact of higher energy costs alongside annual increases in council tax and rail fares contributing to the 3.5 per cent rise.
The optimist&rsquo;s view is that this could be short lived though, with Ofgem announcing a 7 per cent reduction in the energy price cap between July and September this year, compared to a 6 per cent rise in the three months to June.&nbsp;
Higher than expected CPI figures follow news that the UK economy grew by 0.7 per cent in Q1 2025, above the 0.6 per cent forecast and 0.1 per cent recorded in Q4 2024. But policy change, both domestically and internationally, means the path for the remainder
 of 2025 is far from clear, with the impact of employer NI and tariffs still to play out in the GDP figures in the coming months.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1748531146/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-May30-Chart1.jpg" />
Housing market
The post-stamp duty change hangover appears to have been short lived, with the latest figures from Zoopla showing the number of sales agreed in May at their highest level for four years and up 6% on 2024. Sellers are returning to the market too, with
 new listings up 6% and stock on the market 13% higher than at the same point a year ago. 
The latest ONS figures for March show average UK house prices rose 6.4 per cent annually to &pound;271,000, equating to a &pound;16,000 increase on March 2024. First time buyer prices rose 7.1 per cent, outpacing growth for home movers (5.4 per cent).
 Although it is worth noting the impact of the 1 April stamp duty change on these figures. 
For rents, the ONS Private Rents Index showed an annual increase in rents of 7.4 per cent in the 12 months to April 2025. This is down from 7.7 per cent in March but continues to remain elevated compared with new let indicators, with April figures from
 Homelet up just 0.3 per cent annually.&nbsp;
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1748531146/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-May30-Chart2.jpg" />
Time to rethink incentives? 
The government has made clear commitments to building more homes and improving the quality and efficiency of our existing housing stock. However, the responsibility for building this stock lies predominantly with housebuilders, who have responsibilities
 to their shareholders and need to ensure there is a market for any homes they deliver. Whether that be for open market sale, investment, or sales to affordable housing providers. 
The cost to improve existing stock also lies (a few government subsidies aside) with property owners. Whether that be housing associations or other social housing providers, who need to improve stock without any demonstrable increase in rents, or owners
 in the private sector.
The government has clear ambitions to achieve a blanket EPC C+ rating for the private rented sector and social housing, but if we are serious about encouraging and rewarding improvements, we&rsquo;ll need to rethink how we approach this going forward.

New homes are already a step ahead, with 97% of new homes delivered having an EPC of C or above, with 86% rated A or B in Q1 2025.&nbsp; This compares with 6% EPC A or B and 52% EPC C for existing homes. 
To encourage purchasers to buy new and more energy efficient homes, or to reward homeowners for investing in improving the energy efficiency of their homes should we be offering Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) incentives to encourage activity and improvements?
Cutting SDLT by 50% for A or B rated properties, and by 25% for those rated C could provide a clear incentive for buyers and rewards sellers too. Those bringing homes to market at EPC C or above may be more likely to attract buyers due to lower running
 costs and reduced purchase costs. 
What difference could this make? 
If implemented, a first-time buyer purchasing a home at &pound;500,000 could save &pound;5,000 buying an EPC A or B rated home, with home-movers paying &pound;7,500, compared with &pound;15,000 for a home rated D or below. Perhaps a harder sell for government
 would be applying this to investors too, but if we are looking to improve the quality and efficiency of our rental stock offering the same reduction in SDLT would further encourage the purchase of more efficient homes. An investor buying a &pound;500,000
 EPC A or B rated property would still be paying four times the SDLT of a first-time buyer, but saving &pound;20,000 compared with an EPC D home.&nbsp;
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1748531146/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-May30-Chart3.jpg" />
But what about the black hole? 
We understand that discussions on tax breaks at a time when government finances are increasingly stretched could be challenging.&nbsp; However, even if stamp duty take per property fell, more activity means the difference between overall receipts may
 not be as significant. Indeed, encouraging activity in the housing market brings in far more revenue than SDLT alone, providing a boost for the wider economy as well as helping to deliver more better-quality homes. We&rsquo;ll hopefully know more
 following the June Spending Review, but in the meantime, we hope that the Government are considering demand and as well as supply when thinking about how to deliver more homes.
JLL Research
JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare
 and student housing. 
Disclaimer: &copy; 2025 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as
 to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any
 means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right
 to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.

Residential Roundup - 30 May

UK inflation, which had been coming in below forecast earlier this year, spiked according to the latest April figures.

https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1748531281/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-May30-Hero.jpg

This wasn&rsquo;t unexpected, with the impact of higher energy costs alongside annual increases in council tax and rail fares contributing to the 3.5 per cent rise.The optimist&rsquo;s view is that this could be short lived though, with Ofgem announcing a 7 per cent reduction in the energy price cap between July and September this year, compared to a 6 per cent rise in the three months to June.&nbsp;Higher than expected CPI figures follow news that the UK economy grew by 0.7 per cent in Q1 2025, above the 0.6 per cent forecast and 0.1 per cent recorded in Q4 2024. But policy change, both domestically and internationally, means the path for the remainder
 of 2025 is far from clear, with the impact of employer NI and tariffs still to play out in the GDP figures in the coming months.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1748531146/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-May30-Chart1.jpg" />Housing marketThe post-stamp duty change hangover appears to have been short lived, with the latest figures from Zoopla showing the number of sales agreed in May at their highest level for four years and up 6% on 2024. Sellers are returning to the market too, with
 new listings up 6% and stock on the market 13% higher than at the same point a year ago. The latest ONS figures for March show average UK house prices rose 6.4 per cent annually to &pound;271,000, equating to a &pound;16,000 increase on March 2024. First time buyer prices rose 7.1 per cent, outpacing growth for home movers (5.4 per cent).
 Although it is worth noting the impact of the 1 April stamp duty change on these figures. For rents, the ONS Private Rents Index showed an annual increase in rents of 7.4 per cent in the 12 months to April 2025. This is down from 7.7 per cent in March but continues to remain elevated compared with new let indicators, with April figures from
 Homelet up just 0.3 per cent annually.&nbsp;<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1748531146/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-May30-Chart2.jpg" />Time to rethink incentives? The government has made clear commitments to building more homes and improving the quality and efficiency of our existing housing stock. However, the responsibility for building this stock lies predominantly with housebuilders, who have responsibilities
 to their shareholders and need to ensure there is a market for any homes they deliver. Whether that be for open market sale, investment, or sales to affordable housing providers. The cost to improve existing stock also lies (a few government subsidies aside) with property owners. Whether that be housing associations or other social housing providers, who need to improve stock without any demonstrable increase in rents, or owners
 in the private sector.The government has clear ambitions to achieve a blanket EPC C+ rating for the private rented sector and social housing, but if we are serious about encouraging and rewarding improvements, we&rsquo;ll need to rethink how we approach this going forward.
 New homes are already a step ahead, with 97% of new homes delivered having an EPC of C or above, with 86% rated A or B in Q1 2025.&nbsp; This compares with 6% EPC A or B and 52% EPC C for existing homes. To encourage purchasers to buy new and more energy efficient homes, or to reward homeowners for investing in improving the energy efficiency of their homes should we be offering Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) incentives to encourage activity and improvements?Cutting SDLT by 50% for A or B rated properties, and by 25% for those rated C could provide a clear incentive for buyers and rewards sellers too. Those bringing homes to market at EPC C or above may be more likely to attract buyers due to lower running
 costs and reduced purchase costs. What difference could this make? If implemented, a first-time buyer purchasing a home at &pound;500,000 could save &pound;5,000 buying an EPC A or B rated home, with home-movers paying &pound;7,500, compared with &pound;15,000 for a home rated D or below. Perhaps a harder sell for government
 would be applying this to investors too, but if we are looking to improve the quality and efficiency of our rental stock offering the same reduction in SDLT would further encourage the purchase of more efficient homes. An investor buying a &pound;500,000
 EPC A or B rated property would still be paying four times the SDLT of a first-time buyer, but saving &pound;20,000 compared with an EPC D home.&nbsp;<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1748531146/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-May30-Chart3.jpg" />But what about the black hole? We understand that discussions on tax breaks at a time when government finances are increasingly stretched could be challenging.&nbsp; However, even if stamp duty take per property fell, more activity means the difference between overall receipts may not be as significant. Indeed, encouraging activity in the housing market brings in far more revenue than SDLT alone, providing a boost for the wider economy as well as helping to deliver more better-quality homes. We&rsquo;ll hopefully know more following the June Spending Review, but in the meantime, we hope that the Government are considering demand and as well as supply when thinking about how to deliver more homes.JLL ResearchJLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare and student housing. Disclaimer: &copy; 2025 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.

Discover the latest market insights from Marcus Dixon in this week's Residential Roundup

UK inflation, which had been coming in below forecast earlier this year, spiked according to the latest April figures.

Prime Central London Report - Q1 2025

The JLL Q1 2025 Prime Central London Report tracks activity across the central London housing market. The report incorporates the results of our quarterly JLL Prime Central London Index.

The JLL Q1 2025 Prime Central London Report tracks activity across the central London housing market. The report incorporates the results of our quarterly JLL Prime Central London Index.

https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1745419962/resi/gb/Articles/Images/PCL-Q1-2025-Hero.jpg

Unpacking the Renters Reform Bill: Key Insights for Landlords and Tenants

houseprices

Discover key insights on the UK's Renters Reform Bill from JLL's Lucy Morton. Learn how changes in fixed-term tenancies, rent increases, evictions, and more will impact landlords and tenants. Essential reading for anyone in the private rental sector.

https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1744623385/resi/gb/Articles/Images/unpacking-the-renters-reform-bill-key-insights-for-landlords-and-tenants.jpg

The negative reaction to the tariffs rippled through the money markets. Trillions of dollars were wiped off the value of global stocks, but news of a pause saw the markets breathe a sigh of relief, with single-day gains of 9.5 per cent for the S&amp;P
 500 and 12 per cent for the tech-heavy Nasdaq, although worth noting still not back to their pre-'Liberation Day' highs. Similar rebounds occurred across the Asian markets, and closer to home, the FTSE 100 rose 6 per cent, but remains 5 per cent lower
 than on 1 April.The pausing of variable tariffs arguably has less of a direct impact on the UK, as in essence we are in the same position here as we were before 9 April. The UK's more passive approach over the last week should curry favour with the White House, with
 much pinned on the potential for further negotiations in the coming days and weeks. But arguably some of the UK's 'advantage' in being a lower tariff trading partner could be watered down; we'll need to see how negotiations pan out. What does this all mean for the UK economy and housing market? There was better news on the state of the UK economy in February, with monthly GDP growth of 0.5 per cent, up from 0 per cent in January. But economically February seems a long time ago, with the wider impact of tariffs, employer NI and increases in utility
 bills and council tax all likely to impact GDP figures in the coming months.US tariffs, whatever numbers are eventually settled on, are likely to have a negative impact on growth for economies outside the US &ndash; and possibly for the US too. Inflation rates outside the US could drop back as exports become more expensive and
 goods previously destined for the US find their way to more tariff-friendly shores. Whatever happens, the &pound;9.9bn headroom from the Spring Statement looks set to be challenged, meaning further tweaks to taxation could be on the cards at the next
 fiscal event in the autumn. But as the last seven days have proven, a week is a long time in politics (and economics), so we'll need to wait and see what the ramifications are for the UK in the longer term.Mortgage rates dropTariff-induced uncertainty has impacted bond yields and the interbank lending rate, with two-year swaps at their lowest level since Liz Truss was in No.10. This means forecasters now expect the Monetary Policy Committee could reduce the bank rate up to
 four times this year, up from a consensus forecast of just two rate cuts back in March.Mortgage lenders have reacted, with Barclays, TSB, and Coventry Building Society amongst others cutting rates by more than 25 bps, with best-buy two and five-year fixed rates now available at sub 4%. This could prove positive for the UK government too,
 with lower debt servicing costs if rates fall more quickly than anticipated.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1743090226/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Apr11-Chart1.jpg" />Housing marketIn the short term at least, it is likely that the 1 April Stamp Duty deadline will have contributed more to the Q2 outlook for the housing market than tariffs. Figures from the Nationwide suggest house prices were 3.9 per cent higher in March than they
 were a year earlier, with growth flat compared with February. Halifax were a little more downbeat, with prices down 0.5 per cent month-on-month and up 2.8 per cent annually.The latest survey from the RICS released this week remained gloomy. New buyer demand dropped back in March, with a net balance of -32 per cent of respondents reporting a drop in new buyer demand, down from -16 per cent the previous month.As is often the case following an increase in Stamp Duty costs, expectations on activity in the short term remain subdued, with more respondents (a net balance of -18 per cent) expecting fewer agreed sales in Q2.More agents reported an increase in stock reaching the market, but this had also dropped back, with a net balance of +6 per cent in March compared with an average of +17 per cent average over the last six months. This is all impacting the short-term outlook
 for prices, with a higher proportion of agents expecting prices will fall over the next three months. But looking at the next 12 months, some positivity remains, with +39 per cent of respondents expecting prices would be higher in 12 months' time.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1743090226/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Apr11-Chart2.jpg" />Rental marketThe outlook was more positive for the rental market. Tenant demand is increasing as we move into the Spring, with the March RICS survey reporting a net balance of +20 per cent of agents who had seen tenant demand rise in Q1, with expectations on rental increases also remaining in positive territory at a net balance of +31 per cent. Stock levels remain constrained, with a net balance of 24 per cent of agents reporting a drop in new landlord instructions. Homelet data shows average UK rents for new lets rose to &pound;1,288 per month in March, up 1 per cent on February. Average rents on new lets were 2.0 per cent higher in London and 3.5 per cent higher in the rest of the UK on an annual basis.JLL ResearchJLL is a leading global professional services firm specialising in real estate and investment management, with $16.6bn annual revenue in 2020, operations in over 80 countries and a global workforce of over 90,000.&nbsp; With over 7,000 employees and 15 offices in the UK, we support our investor, developer, and occupier clients at every stage of the property lifecycle across both commercial and residential asset classes. This includes land purchase, access to capital, planning, development advisory, leasing, building management and sales. JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare and student housing. Disclaimer: &copy; 2025 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.

Residential Roundup - 11 April

News that the first Universal theme park in Europe would be built in Bedfordshire was not the biggest roller coaster announcement this week. That accolade was reserved for Trump's tariffs.

News that the first Universal theme park in Europe would be built in Bedfordshire was not the biggest roller coaster announcement this week. That accolade was reserved for Trump's tariffs. At the time of writing (an important caveat right now), the US has announced a 90-day 'pause' on implementing variable tariffs on all countries bar China.

https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1744383827/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Apr11-Hero.jpg

There was better news beyond 2025, with the OBR upgrading their outlook for GDP growth from 2026 onwards, averaging 1.75 per cent per annum from 2026 to 2029. Fiscal headroom is expected to be restored to just shy of &pound;10bn by 2029/30, albeit still
 tight in historic terms, leaving the door open for further tax hikes, or at the very least tweaks, later in the year.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1743090226/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Mar27-Chart.jpg" />Inflation comes in below expectation at 2.8 per centIn what must have been welcome news for Labour&rsquo;s front bench the latest inflation figures, released on the day of the Spring Statement, showed CPI dipping below 3 per cent to a lower than forecast 2.8 per cent in February. Core inflation (the measure
 which strips out food and energy) also defied expectations as it dropped back from 3.7 per cent in January to 3.5 per cent. The OBR forecast that inflation will be higher than it previously expected this year, with 2025 CPI now expected to average 3.25 per cent, 60bps higher than the October forecast &ndash; a result of higher than anticipated rises in the cost of energy and
 food.
The jury is still out on what this means for the next meeting of the MPC &ndash; remember they chose to hold rates at the last one &ndash; but we expect that a further two to three 25bps cuts could still be on the cards in 2025. Housing as a driver of growthThere were more namechecks for housing than we&rsquo;d expected in the Spring Statement, cementing housebuilding&rsquo;s role in Labour&rsquo;s growth plans. We were already aware of some of the government&rsquo;s announcements, including an additional
 slug of funds for affordable housing and money to support recruitment and training for the under-resourced construction sector, but the OBR view on the impact of planning reform made for interesting reading, too. Building the construction workforce (&pound;600m)Combining government ambitions to build more homes with the considerable work underway to retrofit UK housing stock and rectify building safety has left the UK construction workforce stretched, before we even consider the significant increase in activity
 needed to get close to the Government&rsquo;s 1.5 million homes target. But our construction workforce is ageing and set to shrink further at a time when demand is rising. To stem this Rachel Reeves has announced a &pound;600m investment in training the construction workers of the future. This investment is intended to provide 60,000 additional construction workers by 2029. The creation of a new Constructions Skills Mission
 Board will be set up to oversee the plans, with funds also being allocated for 10 new technical colleges and &pound;165m earmarked for existing colleges to enable them to deliver more construction courses. More money for affordable housing (&pound;2bn)<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1743177166/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Mar27-Chart3.jpg" />A &pound;2bn top up for affordable housing was announced pre-Spring Statement. The money is earmarked to provide an additional 18,000 affordable and social homes, equating to just over &pound;111,000 per property. The &pound;2bn follows two recent top
 ups totalling &pound;800m and is intended to provide a bridge between the 2021-2026 Affordable Housing Programme and the new grant funding scheme set to be announced at the spending review in June. Touching distance of 1.5 million homes&hellip;The OBR report provided some punchy forecasts for housing delivery, albeit coming with some degree of uncertainty and a fair few caveats. Revisions to the National Planning Policy Framework is expected to permanently increase the level of real GDP by
 0.2 per cent by 2029/30 and boost housebuilding by 170,000 homes over the next five years. OBR forecasts five-year UK-wide net additions ranging from 1.2 million (its low scenario) to 1.3 million (its high). Although worth noting this not only falls short of the 1.5 million target, but also that the target (1.5m) applies to England only. With
 England accounting for around 85% of UK net additions this suggests we could see between 1 million and 1.1 million homes delivered against the 1.5 million target. More work needs to be done to unlock housebuilding, and while planning reform is part of that solution we&rsquo;re holding out (and calling) for more demand side stimulus at the Spending Review in June. JLL ResearchJLL is a leading global professional services firm specialising in real estate and investment management, with $16.6bn annual revenue in 2020, operations in over 80 countries and a global workforce of over 90,000.&nbsp; With over 7,000 employees and 15
 offices in the UK, we support our investor, developer, and occupier clients at every stage of the property lifecycle across both commercial and residential asset classes. This includes land purchase, access to capital, planning, development advisory,
 leasing, building management and sales. JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare
 and student housing. Disclaimer: &copy; 2025 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as
 to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any
 means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right
 to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.

Residential Roundup - 27 March

Entering government Rachel Reeves committed to just one fiscal event a year. Yet in the run up to this Spring Statement it felt more like a mini budget as we braced for the Office for Budget Responsibility end-of-term report on the UK economy.&nbsp;

Entering government Rachel Reeves committed to just one fiscal event a year. Yet in the run up to this Spring Statement it felt more like a mini budget as we braced for the Office for Budget Responsibility end-of-term report on the UK economy. 

Entering government Rachel Reeves committed to just one fiscal event a year. Yet in the run up to this Spring Statement it felt more like a mini budget (hopefully not like the last one) as we braced for the Office for Budget Responsibility end-of-term report on the UK economy.&nbsp;Conditions are looking a little gloomier, at least in the short term. The outlook for UK GDP growth was cut from 2 per cent to 1 per cent for 2025. But the OBR had until now been more bullish on UK GDP than many other forecasters, with the consensus forecast on 2025 GDP growth sitting at 1.1 per cent pre-statement, closer to the revised OBR view.

https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1743088730/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Mar27-Hero2.jpg

<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1741365078/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Mar7-Chart1.jpg" />TransactionsThe SDLT rush is evident in transactions figures, with just over 95,000 homes changing hands in January across the UK, 14% higher than the same month a year earlier. This is the highest January figure since 2022 and marginally up on the 10-year January
 average. House pricesThe impact on house prices is less clear cut. Figures from the Nationwide index show house prices rose 3.9% in the year to February 2025, up 0.4 percentage points month-on-month. The Halifax index shows a marginal slowing in February, with prices down
 0.1% monthly and up 2.9% annually. But we could see the rate of growth fall a little in March. More first-time buyers, who are generally purchasing smaller (and often less expensive) homes, means we could see the overall average fall in March and
 potentially rise in April &ndash; as a result it remains prudent to not place too much emphasis on monthly fluctuations in prices this spring.Mortgage approvals The pre-SDLT rush was evident earlier in the mortgage stats, with the time taken to complete a sale meaning those wanting to beat the deadline would need to have been well progressed by early 2025. In late 2024 we saw annual increases in net mortgage
 lending almost 50% higher than they were a year earlier. True, 2023 wasn&rsquo;t a busy year, but the acceleration in activity was particularly evident in Q4.&nbsp; Lower rates helped, but first-time buyers were busy with their brokers too. The latest
 numbers from the Bank of England show mortgage approvals rose 19% annually in January 2025, with UK Finance showing a 16.4% annual increase in loans to first-time buyers in Q3 2024.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1741365078/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Mar7-Chart2.jpg" />The death of leasehold?Commonhold isn&rsquo;t new; it was introduced back in 2004 as part of the Commonhold and Leasehold Reform Act 2002, but most new developments completed since continued to adopt a leasehold ownership structure. This looks set to change, with the Government publishing a White Paper proposing replacing leasehold with commonhold for new flatted developments (the sale of new leasehold houses has already been stopped). A consultation on how this could be introduced is set to take place in the coming months. Under a commonhold ownership structure, homeowners would effectively own the freehold of their individual unit, with the freehold of the building held by the building&rsquo;s commonhold association. Each owner would be a member of their building&rsquo;s commonhold association and would be expected to contribute to overall maintenance and running costs, similar to a leasehold service charge. No ground rent would be payable. Plans are afoot, too, to make it simpler for existing owners of leasehold properties to convert to commonhold, although this is a more challenging prospect than imposing the new structure on new build homes. Big Six The latest data from Zoopla shows annual rental growth fell from 3.9% in Q4 2024 to 3.0% in their latest Q1 release. The lowest level for more than three years, it follows a significant increase in rents over that period. This &lsquo;normalisation&rsquo; in the rental market has been evident for some time. Stock levels per agent have risen from recent lows but are still down on pre-pandemic norms. There are still 12 enquiries for every rental home according to Zoopla, with the number of homes to rent per agent averaging 13 in February 2025, up from a low of 10 in 2023, but still below the longer run average of 16 between 2017 and 2021. Our recently released JLL Big Six Residential Development Report shows a similar trend.&nbsp; The report tracks changes in prices and rents across mainstream and prime developments in six cities outside London: Birmingham, Bristol, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Leeds and Manchester.Average annual rental growth across the Big Six stands at 4.2%. New stock coming to the market continues to demand higher rents, however more balance between supply and demand has meant average growth returning to single digits in all six cities.Interest rates have remained higher than expected and continue to impact development viability and buyers&rsquo; budgets through higher mortgage rates. Average prices for new build apartments have risen 2.1% across the Big Six. Markets with lower average prices, notably Birmingham and Glasgow, have seen the highest price growth.After a sharp slowdown in the first half of 2024, the Big Six build-to-rent market had its most active second half since 2021, bringing full-year investment to &pound;1bn. Though reflecting a 12% year-on-year decline, it was a strong finish to 2024.To read the latest JLL Big Six report <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/insights/research/big-six-residential-development-report-winter-2024-25">click here.</a>Build-to-rent and UK livingIt is not just the Big Six where build-to-rent activity rose at the back end of 2024. With &pound;5.4bn invested nationally in 2024, BTR activity was up 9% on 2023. Across all sectors of UK living investment rose 5% year-on-year to &pound;13.9bn. There were more than 230 deals completed in 2024, 16% above the five-year average.An uncertain outlook for build and debt costs contributed to drop in forward funding deals, falling 26% below the five-year average, the lowest level since 2018. At the same time, forward purchases and investments in standing stock rose 31%. Domestic investors led the pack, with 44% of total living investment originated in the UK.To read more on our outlook for UK living in 2025 <a href="https://www.jll.co.uk/en/trends-and-insights/research/living-outlook-market-dynamics">click here.</a>

Residential Roundup - 7 March

The clock is ticking for those looking to take advantage of stamp duty savings before rates revert to previous levels on 1 April. First-time buyers have the biggest incentive, particularly those purchasing more expensive homes.

The clock is ticking for those looking to take advantage of stamp duty savings before rates revert to previous levels on 1 April. First-time buyers have the biggest incentive, particularly those purchasing more expensive homes. The threshold at which first-time buyers no longer benefit from relief drops from &pound;625,000 to &pound;500,000, with the nil rate dropping from &pound;425,000 to &pound;300,000. This means someone purchasing a &pound;500,000 first home would see their stamp duty bill increase from &pound;3,750 in March to &pound;10,000 in April.&nbsp;

https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1741365016/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Mar7-Hero.jpg

The JLL Big Six Residential Development Report compares activity, prices, and rents across six UK cities outside London: Birmingham, Bristol, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Leeds and Manchester. This report incorporates data from the JLL UK Cities index, comparing
 changes in prices and rents across mainstream and prime developments in each city.Average annual rental growth across the Big Six cities stands at 4.2% in December 2024. New stock coming to the market continues to demand higher rents, however more balance between supply and demand has meant average growth returning to single digits
 for all cities.Interest rates have remained higher than expected and continue to impact development viability and buyers&rsquo; budgets through higher mortgage rates. Average prices for new build apartments have risen 2.1% across the Big Six. Markets with lower average
 prices, notably Birmingham and Glasgow, have seen the highest price growth.After a sharp slowdown in the first half of the year, the Big Six build-to-rent market had its most active second half since 2021, bringing full-year investment to &pound;1bn. Though reflecting a 12% year-on-year decline, it was a strong finish to 2024.
<a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1739942706/resi/gb/PDFs/Big_Six_Residential_Development_Report_-_Winter_24-25.pdf" target="_blank"><button class="Button primary" style="text-align:center;">Click here to read more</button></a>

Big Six Residential Development Report - Winter 2024/25

https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1739985481/jll-big-six-residential-development-report-high-res_g1wq2r.jpg

The &pound;300m injection is forecast to deliver 2,800 homes (equating to roughly &pound;107,000 per home), but recent analysis of the housing waiting list shows the number of households on the list topped 1.33 million at last count (March 2024), up 43,000
 in 12 months. Meaning that to build the 43,000 homes required just to keep the list at 2023 levels would have required &pound;4.6 billion in funding at &pound;107,000 a home. If we look to tackle the 1.33 million households on the waiting list it
 would take 21 years at current affordable housing delivery rates to build enough homes, before we even consider new entrants over that period.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1739544753/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Feb14-Chart1.jpg" />Fiscal headroom disappearingThe outlook for the UK economy has become more challenging in the last few weeks. The Bank of England cut the base rate (hurrah!) but were pessimistic about the UK&rsquo;s growth prospects. Their expectations for GDP growth in 2025 cut from 1.5% to 0.75%.
 Of course, the Bank are not the only forecasters, with the latest consensus forecasts remaining north of 1%, but we expect to see a more tempered short-term outlook emerge in the coming weeks. The Office for Budget Responsibility will deliver their next forecast to parliament on 26 March. The combined effect of weaker economic growth and higher borrowing costs expected to have significantly reduced Rachel Reeves&rsquo; &pound;10bn of fiscal
 headroom.But fears of a recession in the second half of 2024 have been allayed by news that UK GDP grew by 0.4% in December, up from 0.1% in November.&nbsp; This means estimates for Q4 2024 have tipped (marginally) into positive territory at 0.1% growth, higher
 than the 0.1% contraction forecasters were expecting in a recent poll by Bloomberg. Annually GDP is estimated to be 1.5% higher in December 2024 than it was a year earlier, with full year estimates lower at 0.8% year-on-year.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1739544753/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Feb14-Chart2.jpg" />Increased construction activity contributed to the latest growth figures. Government estimates suggest construction output rose 0.5% in the three months to December 2024 compared with the three months to September. The rise in activity was led by new work, which increased by 1.2%, with repairs and maintenance activity falling marginally by 0.4%. Private new housing was one of the main drivers in the growth in new work, rising 1.3%. Positive news for the sector but still 20% lower than the post-pandemic peak in September 2022.&nbsp; The return of the sub 4% fixBoth Santander and Barclays have announced new 3.99% fixed rates deals, signalling the return of the sub-4% mortgage which has been absent from the market for a few months now (although with a hefty fee and low loan-to-value). It&rsquo;s hoped that breaching the psychological sub 4% barrier will bring more home movers, who had become accustomed to record low rates, back to the market. Fewer home movers have meant the proportion of first-time buyers in the market has risen significantly. UK Finance figures crunched by Halifax show there were more than 340,000 first-time purchases in 2024, up 19% on 2023. First-time buyers accounted for more than half (54%) of mortgaged purchases last year, a record high since the data was first collected back in 2014.&nbsp; Latest from the RICSThe proliferation of lower rates will be good news for activity in the housing market, but in their absence the latest RICS Survey shows a tentative start to the year in January. Activity in the sales market remained broadly flat last month, with the same number of respondents reporting new buyer enquiries rising than falling in January. Here at JLL we&rsquo;re in the (marginally) more positive camp, with data from our offices showing a modest uptick in new applicants registering so far this year, up 6% on the same period in 2024.Sellers continue to return to the market, with more respondents (a balance of +25%) reporting an increase in new instructions, higher than the +16% recorded in December. Stock per surveyor rose too, reaching 45 homes in January, up from 41 at the same point a year ago. For lettings, tenant demand remained broadly flat, with the balance of opinion at +2% in January, meaning marginally more respondents reported a rise than a fall. Fewer landlord instructions were reported again in January (net balance of -19%), with March 2022 being the last month when we saw a positive net balance recorded. Lack of stock, through fewer landlord instructions, is still expected to underpin further rental growth this year.New TownsHousing Minister Matthew Pennycook has announced that more than 100 potential sites across England have been submitted to the New Towns Taskforce for consideration. The sites, the majority of which are urban extensions, aim to provide more than 10,000 homes each with the government promising spades in the ground before the end of this parliament. Initial reports suggest the government could green light around 12 schemes, or more than 120,000 homes. But few, if any, of these homes will be delivered within this parliament, meaning their (self-imposed) challenge of building 1.5 million homes remains.

Residential Roundup - 14 February

Angela Rayner has committed another &pound;350 million to address the shortfall of affordable homes. &pound;300m has been signed off to boost the Affordable Homes Programme with a further &pound;50m for the Local Authority Housing Fund.

Angela Rayner has committed another £350 million to address the shortfall of affordable homes. £300m has been signed off to boost the Affordable Homes Programme with a further £50m for the Local Authority Housing Fund.

Angela Rayner has committed another &pound;350 million to address the shortfall of affordable homes. &pound;300m has been signed off to boost the Affordable Homes Programme with a further &pound;50m for the Local Authority Housing Fund. Every little helps for those looking to deliver affordable housing, but the scale of the problem and the years of shortfall in delivery means that further funding will be needed on top.

https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1739544800/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Feb14-Hero.jpg

Growth taking off? Heading out to Davos Rachel Reeves was keen to stress Britain was open for business. And on her return the growth narrative continued, with announcements on the intention to support a third runway at Heathrow and investment in the Oxford Cambridge Growth
 Corridor, which could bring in an additional &pound;78bn for the UK economy by 2035. In addition, Reeves reiterated commitments to rail improvements, new mass transit infrastructure and the regeneration of Old Trafford, potentially including a new
 stadium for Man United &ndash; all of which involve unlocking additional sites for viable housing development. To accelerate the timeline for a third runway, planning changes will be pushed through to ensure gaining planning for infrastructure projects becomes simpler and less ponderous. Similar changes have been proposed for our sector, with planning reform sitting
 alongside Labour&rsquo;s ambitious plans for housing delivery. UK housing starts subduedReleased this week, the latest starts and completions figures (for Q3 2024) make for sobering reading, with 37,000 new homes started, 28% lower than the Q3 average pre-pandemic. Starts in the year to September were down 35% on the previous 12 months.
 Completions dropped back too, with 7% fewer in the 12 months to September and a 13% drop annually in Q3. To put these numbers in context, completions across England totalled less than 157,000 in the last 12 months, meaning that if we relied on completions
 alone it would take us more than nine years to get the 1.5 million homes the government has committed to deliver in five.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1738337351/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Jan31-Chart1.jpg" />A similar picture in LondonAccording to Molior London, the number of homes started across Greater London last year fell 16% on 2023 and were 50% lower than the previous 10-year average. It was a similar story for completions, down 20% on the 10-year average, and planning permissions,
 down 58% on the 10-year and 37% annually.&nbsp; But ending with better news, applications rose annually in 2024, the number of units at application stage up by a third compared with 2023. Relaxing the rules on non-dom taxationA recent report by New World Wealth and Henley &amp; Partners suggests the UK has seen 26,000 millionaires depart since the start of 2017, with a net outflow of 9,500 in 2024 alone. With many countries now courting footloose high net worths with more
 attractive tax rates, the UK is looking increasingly out of step. Plans to change tax rules around non-doms were initiated under the Conservatives and re-iterated in the Budget, but in a recent interview Rachel Reeves suggests the Government is &lsquo;re-thinking&rsquo;
 it&rsquo;s plans. &nbsp;Reeves stated they will be tabling an amendment to the Finance Bill to include a more generous Temporary Repatriation Facility, which enables non-doms to bring money into the UK at a lower tax rate. She also reassured non-doms over double taxation and
 inheritance tax liabilities for those fearing they would become liable for tax in more than one country. Prime Central LondonConflicting messages were coming out of Prime Central London in Q4. Activity rose, with the number of homes changing hands at a 10-year high for fourth quarter sales, but fewer buyers were in the market at the top end and overall prices dipped 4% in 2024
 due in part to fewer higher value homes trading towards the year end. As usual the fourth quarter was relatively quiet for the Prime Central London lettings market, but activity was in line with Q4 2023, with 3% fewer new lets agreed. Full year figures show there were almost 4,400 new lets agreed in Prime Central London
 in 2024, 5% higher than 2023. While activity gradually increased during the year, we saw slower growth in rents. The JLL PCL Rental Index shows average annual rental growth cooling over the past two years from a high of 15% annual growth in Q1 2022.
 Rents ended the year 0.4% higher than at the end of 2023. Looking ahead stock levels are lower as we move into Q1 2025, with 15% fewer homes on the market to let than at the end of the third quarter and 8.5% fewer than in the same period a year earlier.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1738337351/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Jan31-Chart2.jpg" /><a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/insights/research/prime-central-london-report-q4-2024">Click here </a>to read our latest PCL report. Build-to-rent investment rises in Q4Q4 2024 was the most active quarter for build-to-rent investment since 2021, marking a significant increase on a lacklustre third quarter. Investment in the fourth quarter totalled &pound;2bn, taking the full year total to &pound;5.4bn. Single family housing proved popular with investors, as they acquired 7,000 new rental homes in 2024. However, despite a record year for single family investment, a rise in multifamily in Q4 meant it ended the year marginally higher in overall volumes. Operational stock accounted for the bulk of multifamily transactions, with forward funding accounting for just a fifth of total investment. This is due in part to the fact the sector is maturing, with more stabilised stock to trade, but also reflects continued viability challenges faced by both the build-to-rent and build-to-sell markets. To read more on our latest build-to-rent numbers <a href="https://www.jll.co.uk/en/views/record-year-for-single-family-underpins-btr-investment-in-2024">Click here.</a>

Residential Roundup - 31 January

House prices rose 4.1% in the year to January 2025 according to the latest figures from Nationwide, down from 4.7% in December but still a higher annual growth figure than any other month in 2024.

House prices rose 4.1% in the year to January 2025 according to the latest figures from Nationwide, down from 4.7% in December but still a higher annual growth figure than any other month in 2024. This follows an uptick in mortgage approvals in December, with seasonally adjusted numbers showing a 0.7% rise on November levels and a 28% increase on a slow December 2023. If the MPC lower rates, as expected, at their next meeting on 6 February we could see a further increase in activity in February, although those shopping for fixed rates may find these reductions have already been factored into current deals.

https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1738339989/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Jan31-Hero2.jpg

Prime Central London Report - Q4 2024

The JLL Q4 2024 Prime Central London Report tracks activity across the central London housing market. The report incorporates the results of our quarterly JLL Prime Central London Index.

The JLL Q4 2024 Prime Central London Report tracks activity across the central London housing market. The report incorporates the results of our quarterly JLL Prime Central London Index.

https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1737731909/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Q4-PCL-2024-Hero2.jpg

Latest figures from the Office for National Statistics show inflation fell to 2.5% annually in December, down from 2.6% the previous month, and lower than forecast. Core inflation fell to 3.2%, down from 3.5% in October, and services inflation, at 4.4%,
 was at its lowest since Q1 2022. Economists expected it would drop back to only 4.9%. There was some positive news from across the pond, too. Consumer prices rose annually by 2.9% but core inflation, a figure which often influences policy makers&rsquo; decisions on rates dropped to 3.2%.The response from the markets has been broadly positive, increasing the probability of further rate cuts when the Bank of England and Federal Reserve rate setters next meet.&nbsp; In the case of the MPC, 6 February is the date for your diaries.
UK EconomyUK GDP edged up in November, rising by a disappointing 0.1%. The back end of 2024 was slow, with growth weak in Q3 and a plateau forecast in Q4. For 2025 the consensus is for a return to growth, with the outlook more positive at 1.3% compared to 0.9%
 last year. Forecasts, according to Consensus Economics, range from the most optimistic at 1.8%, to the most pessimistic at 0.8%. For 2026 the forecast for growth is the same at 1.3%.The labour market remains robust if a little underwhelming. Higher public sector pay and an increase in the minimum wage align with rising private sector real wages, which are expected to support real spending this year.That said, challenges remain, with employers facing increased costs coming out of the Autumn Budget: higher national insurance contributions, the rise in the minimum wage and higher business property rates, all of which will likely impact both recruitment
 and inflation over the coming months.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1737126346/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Jan17-Chart1.png" />Mortgage ratesWe expect interest rates to fall, particularly following the latest inflation figures. Indeed, with low inflation and growth lower than the long-term trend, it is hard to see why the MPC wouldn&rsquo;t act. The question remains when. We are also facing a global bond sell off that is pushing up benchmark bond yields. Again, we have seen this improve in recent days, but our fiscal situation remains challenging.That said, the rapid rise in bond yields has not been mirrored by a similar rise in swap rates, meaning best buy mortgage rates haven&rsquo;t increased quite as much as feared. As we go to press, best buy rates sit at 4.3% for a two-year fix and 4.2%
 for a five-year (both at 75% LTV).PricesThe drop in mortgage approvals in November and rates remaining north of 4% are impacting buyer demand. In the latest RICS survey, more agents were still reporting an increase in new buyer enquiries, but the net balance fell back from +11% in November
 to +5% in December. However, the usual seasonal slowdown could be playing a role here, too.&nbsp; November figures from the ONS show average UK house prices rose 3.3% in the year to November 2024. Prices were broadly flat in London, down 0.1% annually, compared with growth of 5.9% in the North East.&nbsp;<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1737126346/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Jan17-Chart2.png" />RentsDecember isn&rsquo;t always the best month to take the temperature of the UK rental market. But the ONS rental index is still at near-record levels, averaging 9.0% in December, in line with the 9.1% annual change in November. Achieved rents on new lets show only marginal annual increases, falling to 1.3% across the UK in the year to December according to Homelet. New lets in London saw a modest annual fall of 2.6% in 2024.But the outlook for rental growth remains positive, with the latest figures from the RICS suggesting a net balance of +37% of agents expected rents to rise in the next three months, up from +29% last month. This is expected to be driven by lack of stock, with more agents reporting new landlord instructions falling, a net balance of -27% from -13% in November. HousebuildingPrivate housebuilding price inflation rose to 3.7%, once again above CPI. Meanwhile, the UK Construction PMI recorded a third consecutive month of housebuilding contraction, in sharp contrast to construction as a whole, which continues to expand.But some positive news from the housebuilding sector comes from Persimmon Homes, which reported the number of homes delivered in 2024 was up 7% annually, at the upper end of its expectations for the year.Regulatory updateThe Renters&rsquo; Rights Bill has now completed its passage through the House of Commons and is off to the House of Lords as it inches closer to becoming law. Several amendments were added this week, including a clause restricting landlords from requiring upfront payments of more than one month&rsquo;s rent (alongside a security deposit of five or six weeks&rsquo; rent). We&rsquo;ll be updating you separately on the Renters&rsquo; Rights Bill in the coming days.

Residential Roundup - 17 January

Good news on the UK economy has been hard to come by in recent weeks. But lower than forecast inflation figures have raised hopes and resulted in a much-needed positive response from the bond markets, with 30-year bond yields remaining elevated but down from their recent highs.

Good news on the UK economy has been hard to come by in recent weeks. But lower than forecast inflation figures have raised hopes and resulted in a much-needed positive response from the bond markets.

Good news on the UK economy has been hard to come by in recent weeks. But lower than forecast inflation figures have raised hopes and resulted in a much-needed positive response from the bond markets, with 30-year bond yields remaining elevated but down from their recent highs.

https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1737128621/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Jan17-Hero2.jpg

<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1734604013/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Christmas-Chart1.png" />More new homesThe new National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) was introduced as an early Christmas present last week. Housing targets, based on the new approach to housing need first mooted in July, are now mandatory. The word of the day appears to be flexibility,
 with the NPPF confirming that councils will be required to review green belt boundaries if they cannot meet housing need from non-green belt land first. Any land defined as &lsquo;not strongly contributing&rsquo; to the green belt could be brought
 into scope. There appears to be more flexibility too on affordable housing targets, with a blanket affordable housing requirements of 50% on some sites proposed in the July draft. New plans look instead at a 15% uplift over the current highest policy requirement,
 with the 50% being used as a cap rather than threshold. But planning reform is just one part of the housing delivery puzzle, we&rsquo;ll need a Christmas miracle and plenty more construction elves to ramp up delivery to meet target in the short term.&nbsp;<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1734604013/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Christmas-Chart2.png" />Christmas presentThose hoping to put a new home under the Christmas tree this year will be paying more than they were a year ago.&nbsp; All the key house prices indices are reporting growth. The Nationwide index showing prices have risen 3.7%, the Land Registry 3.4% and Halifax 4.8% in the last 12 months. All marginally higher than our 2024 expectations back in May, with JLL forecasting growth of 2% growth in 2024. We are seeing more activity in the sales market. The number of homes sold in October 2024 was the highest since 2020, with the number of sales up 23% on 2023 levels. This follows a similar trend to the one we&rsquo;ve been observing for a few months now, with the number of transactions recorded between April and October 2024 up 11% on the same period a year earlier. Mortgage approvals are on the rise too. With the latest figures for October the highest since 2022. &nbsp;For rents the ONS Index, which includes new and existing tenancies, is showing rental growth of 9.1% in the 12 months to November, with Homelet (new lets only) reporting an annual increase of 2.2%.&nbsp;What do we predict for 2025? A busy start to Q1First-time buyers can save up to &pound;6,250 and existing owner occupiers up to &pound;2,500 in SDLT when buying a &pound;500,000 home before 1 April 2025. Expect a flurry of deals pushed through in Q1 2025 (and a bit of a lull post). But buyers will
 need to get their (ice) skates on to secure a home before the deadline with less than a third of homes going under offer in January traditionally completing before the start of April. House prices will riseThe latest monthly survey from the RICS points to further growth in prices as we move into 2025. Reported as a balance of opinion (a positive balance means more saying they think they&rsquo;ll rise than fall) a net balance of +47% of respondents expected
 prices will rise over the next 12 months, with views on price growth positive for all UK regions.Demand appears to be rising too, with a net balance of +12% of agents reporting an increase, the fifth consecutive month posting a positive reading. This is also reflected in the outlook for sales activity, with a net balance of +19% expecting more sales
 over the next three months and +33% over the next 12. Here at JLL we expect house prices will rise by 20% over the next five-years, with rents expected to increase 17% over the same period. To read more on our forecasts <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/insights/news/jll-residential-forecast-2025-2029">click here.</a><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1734604013/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Christmas-Chart3.png" />Rental growth returns to low single digitsFor lettings, tenant demand remained broadly flat in November, with the RICS reporting a net balance of -1%. This has grabbed some headlines being the first negative reading on tenant demand since 2020. Despite a drop off in demand (to be fair November is never a busy month for lettings) more agents reported a further fall in landlord instructions, meaning the outlook for rental growth remained positive. A net balance of +29% of respondents to the survey expecting rents to rise in early 2025. Mortgage rates will fall (a bit)Despite average mortgage rates edging up over the last couple of months expectations remain that we&rsquo;ll see further rate cuts as we move into 2025. Five-year swap rates edged down in early December, 44bps lower than they were a year ago and down on recent post-budget highs. As expected, the Monetary Policy Committee held rates at 4.75% at their 19th December meeting, but consensus forecasts suggest we should see three further 25bps drops in the bank rate in 2025.&nbsp;Mortgage activity increasesUK Finance have just released their forecasts for 2025.&nbsp; They expect gross mortgage lending will rise 11% next year. Remortgaging is expected to rise 30% with lending for house purchase up 10% to &pound;148 billion. Only new buy-to-let lending is expected to fall, with lending of &pound;9 billion forecast, 7% lower than 2024 levels. But this follows a stronger than expected year for new buy-to-let lending, with borrowing expected to end the year 13% up on 2023 levels. Here&rsquo;s to 2025That&rsquo;s a wrap on 2024. All that&rsquo;s left is for us to wish you all a very merry Christmas and all the best for 2025 from us here at JLL Residential.&nbsp;

Residential Roundup – Christmas 2024

With the Christmas break in sight this, our last Roundup of 2024, looks back over the year and ahead at what we can expect in 2025.&nbsp;

With the Christmas break in sight this, our last Roundup of 2024, looks back over the year and ahead at what we can expect in 2025. 

News that stamp duty bills are rising for most buyers from April 1st has brought a few more house hunters out in December than usual. But for most minds are elsewhere, meaning that gleaning much from the property tea leaves can be difficult at this time of year. With the Christmas break in sight this, our last Roundup of 2024, looks back over the year and ahead at what we can expect in 2025.&nbsp;

https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1734604035/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Christmas-Hero2.jpg

London Development and BTR Report - Autumn 2024

The Central London Development and BTR Report tracks development activity across London, including new targets for residential development, new homes sales and the performance of the Build to Rent sector.

https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1733718701/resi/gb/Articles/Images/london-development-and-build-to-rent-report.jpg

The Older People&rsquo;s Housing Taskforce Report published this week by the MHCLG flagged stamp duty as holding back activity in the later living market (it mentions it 17 times in the exec summary alone). We need between 30,000 and 50,000 new later
 living homes per annum but only currently build around 7,000. &nbsp;The report suggests introducing stamp duty incentives or equalising first-time buyer and &lsquo;last-time buyer&rsquo; rates for those looking to downsize could increase activity
 and allow older households to move to more suitable properties. Read more <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-older-peoples-housing-taskforce-report/our-future-homes-housing-that-promotes-wellbeing-and-community-for-an-ageing-population#annex-a-combined-set-of-recommendations-for-older-peoples-housinghomes-ophlater-living-housinghomes-llh">here.</a>We&rsquo;re unlikely to hear more on incentives until the Spending Review this coming spring, but until then we thought it was worth looking at rates, who pays and where revenues are coming from. Broader shoulders in higher value marketsProperty transaction tax (the majority of which is residential SDLT) is expected to bring in &pound;12.8 billion in the year to March 2024, rising to &pound;25 billion per annum by 2030 according to the OBR. Property transaction tax receipts are forecast
 to be around 40% higher than the much-discussed inheritance tax take over the next five years. Total residential receipts in year to March 2023 (2024 data is still only provisional) were &pound;11.7 billion.&nbsp;Comparing total residential receipts with the number of transactions shows a rise in revenue per transaction of 72% over the past decade,
 outpacing price growth by around 20 percentage points.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1732891743/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Nov29-Chart1.png" />Of the &pound;11.7 billion total, &pound;4.5 billion came from London sales. London buyers account for 59% of receipts, despite London sales being just 11% of the total nationally. The two most expensive London boroughs contributed &pound;1.45 billion to HMRC coffers, with &pound;690 million from sales in Kensington &amp; Chelsea and &pound;765 million from Westminster, 12.4% of national totals. Indeed, the top ten local authorities
 in terms of receipts contributed 26% of the total SDLT take. Eight of the top ten were London boroughs, with the remaining two high value Buckinghamshire and Elmbridge.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1732891743/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Nov29-Chart2.png" />Home moversStamp duty rates are most straightforward to understand for home movers purchasing their sole residence. Purchasers pay SDLT at differing rates dependent upon the proportion of the sale price which falls within each bracket. From April 2025 the rate at
 which buyers start paying SDLT returns to &pound;125k, down from &pound;250k currently (known as the nil-rate threshold). This will add &pound;2,500 to the stamp duty bill for someone buying a &pound;500,000 home. First-time buyersCurrent rules mean first time buyers purchasing homes at up to &pound;625k have a higher threshold before they start paying stamp duty, saving buyers at the upper price limit &pound;11,250 compared with rates from April 2025. Currently those purchasing
 homes up to &pound;625k don&rsquo;t pay stamp duty on the proportion of the home priced at below &pound;425k, in April 2025 this falls back to the previous limit of &pound;300k. Additional homesHigher Rates on Additional Dwellings (HRAD) accounted for &pound;4.2 billion of SDLT receipts in the year to September 2024, almost 50% of total receipts over the 12-month period.&nbsp; Following the autumn Budget those purchasing an additional property
 will pay a higher SDLT bill.&nbsp; With the previous 3% surcharge rising to 5% at midnight on Budget day. The SDLT cost to purchase a &pound;500k home as a UK resident now &pound;37,500, up &pound;10k on pre-Budget levels. ATEDAnnual Tax on Enveloped Dwelling, or ATED for short, is levied on residential properties owned by non-natural person, in most case those held within a company structure. It applies predominantly to properties valued at &pound;500,000 or more with the
 owner required to have the property valued every five years.&nbsp; An annual charge is then levied depending on the property&rsquo;s value. These range from &pound;4,400 a year for homes valued at &pound;500k to &pound;1million, to &pound;287,500
 for homes worth more than &pound;20 million (figures for 2024/25 financial year). On top of the annual charge properties purchased by &lsquo;non-natural persons&rsquo; attract a 17% SDLT rate. There are exemptions and reliefs available for certain
 assets so well worth taking advice.Buying multiple propertiesMultiple Dwellings Relief (MDR) was abolished under the previous government. Aimed at transactions where there was more than one dwelling, essentially the purchaser paid SDLT on each property at an individual rate per property, rather than on the total
 purchase price. But without MDR most buyers purchasing six or more residential properties now buy through non-residential SDLT.&nbsp; This approach treats the purchase as a single asset, with buyers paying 0% on purchases up to &pound;150k, 2% on
 purchases between &pound;150k and &pound;20k and 5% on purchases over &pound;250k. For more information on stamp duty rates <a href="https://www.tax.service.gov.uk/calculate-stamp-duty-land-tax/#!/intro">click here.</a><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1732891743/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Nov29-Chart3.png" />&nbsp;

Residential Roundup - 29 November

Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) has been in the news quite a bit recently.&nbsp; Those buying additional properties are paying more post-Budget and changes in the zero-rate threshold will mean added costs from April 2025 for all buyers.

Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) has been in the news quite a bit recently.  Those buying additional properties are paying more post-Budget and changes in the zero-rate threshold will mean added costs from April 2025 for all buyers.

Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) has been in the news quite a bit recently.&nbsp; Those buying additional properties are paying more post-Budget and changes in the zero-rate threshold will mean added costs from April 2025 for all buyers.

https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1732891731/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Nov29-Hero.jpg

The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics show the UK economy all but plateauing in Q3, with economic growth of 0.1% recorded, below the 0.2% forecast and lower than the 0.5% figure for Q2. Understandably the Chancellor is disappointed
 with these numbers and will be hoping that with the budget behind us we&rsquo;ll see more activity and a shift away from pre-Budget inertia. <h2>Wages rising</h2>Annual growth in weekly earnings rose 4.8% in the three months to September, according to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics. Wage growth remained above inflation, rising 1.4% in real (inflation adjusted) terms. These figures support
 assertions by the Bank of England that some heat is coming out of the labour market as we move towards the end of the year and remains in line with expectations. <h2>The latest from the RICS</h2>In contrast to the lacklustre economic news, the latest RICS survey showed some signs of cautious optimism in the housing market. The headline net balance (remember the RICS report on balance of opinion so anything in positive territory suggests more
 agents reporting a rise than a fall) for new buyer enquiries was positive for the fourth consecutive month, albeit little changed from September at +12%. Sales activity looked to be edging up too, with a net balance of +9% of agents reporting an increase.
 This is the third consecutive monthly rise, following broadly negative readings since early 2022. Outlook on price growth remained positive too, with the net balance of agents expecting prices to rise over the next 12 months increasing to +20% in
 October, up from +12% the month prior. <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1731679600/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Rise-Q4.png" />For lettings, results from the October survey show tenant demand rising in the three months to October, with more respondents seeing an increase than a fall, returning a positive net balance of +19%. But there were fewer landlord instructions, possibly
 reflecting pre-Budget caution from landlords, with a net balance of -29% of agents reporting a fall in the three months to October.&nbsp; The most negative figure for three years. Unsurprisingly, with demand increasing and fewer instructions, respondents
 were more optimistic about the prospect for rent rises in the coming months. A balance of +33% of agents expecting rents to rise over the next three months. <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1731679599/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Rent-Rises.png" />The ONS rental index (all lets) shows rents up 8.4% annually, but new lets (via Homelet) are showing a 3.4% annual increase nationally. For sales, Nationwide show prices up 2.4% annually with Halifax figures suggesting higher growth of 3.9%. <h2>Base rates fall but fixed rates rise</h2>In the run up to the Monetary Policy Committee meeting on 7th November most were forecasting a further reduction in the base rate.&nbsp; Even with a mixed reaction following the budget this view didn&rsquo;t waiver much and was confirmed with
 a 25bps reduction.&nbsp; The MPC members voting eight to one to reduce rates (the one voting to stick). But messaging from the MPC suggests chances of a further 2024 reduction when they next meet on 19th December remain slim. The November drop is good news for those on variable or tracker rates, but for those shopping for fixed rates a rise in swap rates, which started to build pre-Budget, means a host of lenders have increased their fixed rates.&nbsp; At the time of writing
 most sub 4% five-year fixes have been pulled from the market, rates are still lower than the 4.7% best-buys a year ago but expect them to sit slightly higher until we have some clarity on swaps. &nbsp;<h2>Starts drop in London</h2>A new approach to measuring housing need in London suggests we should be targeting 80,000 completions a year in the capital. But Molior London figures show housing starts in London so far this year (January to September) are down 53%
 on the ten-year average. Figures from the GLA show the number of affordable housing starts in the six months to September 2024 fell 23% on 2023 levels, with just shy of 2,700 affordable homes completed. Over the same six-month period there were just
 582 GLA-funded affordable homes started, up on 2023 levels but nowhere near target. Expect continued scarcity in the London new homes market until we see an uptick in activity. <h2>Updated JLL forecasts</h2>Back in May our revised forecast coincided with the announcement of a UK General Election and in November we were upstaged again when our forecast launch fell on the same day as the US election.
So, for those who may have missed it, our updated 2025 to 2029 forecast expects activity to
increase steadily from 2025 onwards, with prices up 20% and rents up 17% by the end of the five-year forecast period. To read more on our latest outlook for 2025-2029 <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/insights/news/jll-residential-forecast-2025-2029">click here.</a><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1731677711/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Outlook-Price-Rent.png" />

Residential Roundup - 15 November

It&rsquo;s been a busy couple of weeks since we last updated you following the UK Budget. Trump is heading back to the White House, the Bank of England has dropped the bank rate 25bps to 4.75%, and here at JLL we&rsquo;ve released our latest house price forecasts.

It’s been a busy couple of weeks since we last updated you following the UK Budget. Trump is heading back to the White House, the Bank of England has dropped the bank rate 25bps to 4.75%, and here at JLL we’ve released our latest house price forecasts.

It&rsquo;s been a busy couple of weeks since we last updated you following the UK Budget. Trump is heading back to the White House for a second time, the Bank of England has dropped the bank rate 25bps to 4.75%, and here at JLL we&rsquo;ve released our latest house price forecasts. The latter obviously grabbing the lion&rsquo;s share of headlines&hellip;.

https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1731677666/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Roundup-Nov-15.jpg

The announcement on additional borrowing had already unsettled investors in the run up to the budget, driving government borrowing costs to a five-month high.&nbsp; But leaks and briefings on some key policies pre-Budget appear to have had the desired effect meaning we&rsquo;re still below post mini-budget levels.For housing there was little evidence of some of the much-speculated changes we heard rumour of in the run up. Some will see this as a missed opportunity.&nbsp; But this is far from the worst-case scenario many had feared. And clarification on government plans, or at least an end to pre-budget speculation, should bring more prospective buyers back to the market.After all, the housing market looks to be in decent shape.&nbsp; Mortgage approval figures in September were at their highest for more than two years, with lower rates bringing more prospective buyers back to the market.&nbsp; Prices are edging up in response and activity across the market is recovering, too.So what was in the budget for housing? <h2>UK economy on the path to recovery</h2>The latest figures from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) suggest the UK economy will grow by 1.1% this year and by 2.0% in 2025 in real terms. Inflation (CPI) is expected to sit marginally above the 2% target each year until 2029. <h2>Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT)</h2>Changes to stamp duty rules mean those purchasing properties in addition to their main residence (buy-to-let and second homes) will now pay a 5% rather than 3% surcharge. Adding &pound;10,000 to the stamp duty bill for a &pound;500,000 home. The single rate of SDLT charged on the purchase of dwellings costing &pound;500,000 or more by corporate bodies will also rise from 15% to 17%. Increases in rates were not necessarily viewed as a significant revenue raiser (an extra &pound;400 million by 2029/30) but would rather level the playing field between first time buyers and investors. But extra stamp duty for additional properties was not accompanied by an increase in incentives for first time buyers, with nothing in the budget on the first time buyer zero rate thresholds, which are due to drop back from &pound;425,000 to &pound;300,000 in April 2025. Instead, the government has committed to consult the industry on extending the mortgage guarantee scheme, effectively a 5% deposit scheme for first time buyers. News on that is promised in Phase 2 of the Spending Review next Spring.<h2>Capital Gains Tax (CGT)</h2>Tax on gains for residential property were left at their current level of 18% for lower rate and 24% for higher rate tax payers. Disposal of other assets, including shares, was normalised with residential property at 24%. With suggestions that &lsquo;normalisation&rsquo; could have been imposed with income tax rates, this should add some comfort to those in the sector. &nbsp;<h2>Affordable housing</h2>The government reaffirmed its commitment to deliver more affordable homes.&nbsp; A &pound;500million top up was promised for the Affordable Homes Programme and a consultation for an ongoing five-year rent settlement at CPI+1 (guaranteeing the rent cap on the amount providers can charge) was announced.&nbsp; Those wanting clarity on future grant investment will need to wait until the Spending Review in Q2 next year.<h2>Right to Buy</h2>Discounts for those purchasing through Right to Buy scheme will be reduced and councils in England will be able to keep all the receipts from sales to deliver new homes. This will need further investment to stem the loss of social housing through the scheme, with the latest annual figures showing 3,046 homes started using Right to Buy receipts versus 6,275 sold. <h2>Inheritance tax (IHT)</h2>The Chancellor announced current inheritance tax thresholds will be frozen until 2030, two years ahead of plans pre-budget. This means individuals can continue to leave &pound;325,000 free of tax, rising to &pound;500,000 if leaving your home to your children. Couples can inherit each other&rsquo;s allowance, meaning if you tick all the boxes &pound;1million can be left free of IHT. But new rules will bring previously exempt assets into play, meaning pensions, which had been IHT exempt, will fall within the totals from April 2027. Owners of agricultural and business property, again previously able to benefit from exemptions, will from April 2026 need to consider their liabilities over certain thresholds, although allowances will mean an effective rate of 20% rather than 40%. <h2>Housing supply</h2>We&rsquo;ve already heard from the government on its plans for delivering more homes, so perhaps a lack of detail within the budget was to be expected. The government committed &pound;5bn to their housing building programme in 2025/26 and repeated its commitment to provide 300 new planners (effectively less than one per authority), but the new planning framework (NPPF) due at the end of the year is expected to fill in some further gaps here. <h2>Non-doms</h2>As expected, the government announced it will end current non-domiciled tax rules from April 2025 and introduce a new residence-based system. For those looking to bring assets into the UK, the government will extend the temporary repatriation facility from two to three years. This isn&rsquo;t new, and follows similar plans announced under the Conservatives. The budget confirmed that only gains made after April 2017 will be considered as part of the new proposals, but the door is still open for government to bring worldwide assets within the scope of UK inheritance tax.<h2>What we missed</h2>With the government having already announced plans to reinstate ambitious housing targets post-election we had hoped the budget would include some news on stimulus for demand. Yet incentives for home purchase, changes to stamp duty land tax (aside from the increase for additional properties) and the reintroduction of Multiple Dwellings Relief were conspicuous in their absence this time around. More positive news on the UK economy and further interest rate cuts expected before the end of the year will likely support house price growth. But while we acknowledge increasing demand when supply remains low could challenge affordability further, the government needs to reassure developers and investors that there will be a market for a higher number of new homes they&rsquo;ve committed to deliver.&nbsp;

Residential Roundup – Budget Special

With the plans from the first Labour Budget in 14 years expected to bring in an extra &pound;40bn &ndash; read Marcus Dixon&rsquo;s overview of what was included for housing, in this week&rsquo;s Residential Roundup.

With the plans from the first Labour Budget in 14 years expected to bring in an extra £40bn – read Marcus Dixon’s overview of what was included for housing, in this week’s Residential Roundup.

The first Labour Budget in 14 years was never going to please everyone. This was a tax raising Budget, with the Chancellor&rsquo;s plans expected to bring in an extra &pound;40bn. Employers will be shouldering much of the financial responsibility, with funding public services core to Labours plans.

https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1730381534/resi/gb/Articles/Images/Resi-Roundup-Budget.jpg

Prime Central London Report - Q3 2024

The JLL Q3 2024 Prime Central London Report tracks activity across the central London housing market. The report incorporates the results of our quarterly JLL Prime Central London Index.

https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1729697571/resi/gb/Articles/Images/PCL-Q3-2024-Hero.jpg

This week has brought some welcome news for Andrew Bailey and the Bank of England. Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) fell below 2% for the first time since April 2021, with the annual inflation rate coming in below both the target rate and the Bank&rsquo;s expectations of 1.9%, rising 1.7% in the year to September. A fall in the cost of airfares and petrol in the last couple of months were credited with these figures coming in lower than forecast.Core CPI (which excludes things like energy and food) has been more stubborn than overall CPI, but it also fell back further than expected, with annual growth of 3.2% &ndash; below the 3.4% forecast &ndash; in September. Wage growth in the three months to August 2024 was broadly in line with the Bank&rsquo;s expectations. Regular pay rose 4.9% annually, while pay with bonuses was up 3.8%. This combination means real wages (wages after inflation) are rising, meaning more
 in the pocket for UK workers. Potential Budget tax raids aside, this means we&rsquo;d expect consumers will be more confident to spend this quarter than last. This all points to a further reduction in rates when the Monetary Policy Committee meets on 17th November. A 25bp cut remains more likely than 50, but it does open up the prospect of a further 25bps in December, if key indictors keep heading
 in the right direction. <h2>Mortgage markets</h2>So, all this means mortgage rates are falling, right? Well not quite. Natwest and Santander are just two of the lenders who have announced an increase in their fixed rates in the past few days. This isn&rsquo;t unusual: often those with the most competitive
 rates will put them up once they reach certain quotas, but there is a bit more at play here other than just a run on lower rate deals.Long-term borrowing costs have been rising, with 10-year UK gilt yields (basically a government IOU to be paid back at a future date) rising from a low of 3.75% in mid-September to a mid-October high north of 4.2%. Pre-Budget wobbles are being cited,
 fuelled by reports that Chancellor Rachel Reeves is looking at relaxing fiscal rules to increase borrowing to fund Budget commitments. In recent days the 10-year rate has dropped a little to below 4.1% but expect uncertainty in the mortgage markets
 to persist until we know more on the 30th.<h2 style="text-align:center;"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1729259626/resi/gb/cms/Research/Images/houseprices.jpg" /></h2><h2>House prices
</h2>Figures from the Office for National Statistics show August was the sixth consecutive month when house prices posted an annual increase, the latest figures showing prices up 2.8%. This follows announcements from Nationwide and Halifax earlier this month,
 which showed prices up 3.2% and 4.7% respectively in the year to September. Prices in Scotland (5.4%) and Wales (3.5%) rose more than England (2.3%), with the North West recording the highest growth of any English region at 4.6%. The Midlands and
 North of England saw higher growth than the South, with the South West the lowest at 0.8%, while London saw growth of 1.4%. <h2>Rental Market
</h2>The ONS index of all rents showed an annual increase of 8.4% in September 2024, unchanged from August and down from a peak of 9.2% in March 2024. But the Homelet Rental Index of new lets fell relatively sharply to 4.3% from 5.1% a month before, continuing
 the trend we've seen this year of renewals commanding higher growth than new lets. In London the ONS all rents index is still showing annual growth of 9.8%, whereas Homelet shows rents for new lets rising just 1.0% annually. Our Q3 JLL lettings data
 for London sits somewhere in the middle, with average rents achieved on new lets up 2.0% and new lets and renewals combined rising 2.6%.
<h2 style="text-align:center;"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1729259628/resi/gb/cms/Research/Images/rentalindex.jpg" /></h2><h2>Construction</h2>The S&amp;P Construction Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is a good bell weather for activity. The latest release signalled the steepest rate of growth in construction activity in 29 months, driven particularly by civil engineering and commercial developments.
 But housebuilding has fallen behind, with the volume of new housing activity continuing to fall on an annual basis, according to the ONS. The good news is that compared to 2022/23, housebuilding construction cost inflation is low, but not as low as
 CPI, which alongside Budget uncertainty is still holding back activity and challenging viability within the sector. <h2>The Budget</h2>The two-week countdown has begun, with ministers remaining relatively tight lipped around what will make the cut on the 30th October. Rachel Reeves appears to be looking closely at employers&rsquo; National Insurance Contributions,
with the number of ministers explaining how this doesn&rsquo;t contradict their manifesto pledges suggesting it could be more than just a Westminster rumour. Reports in the Times on Friday 18th October suggest the Chancellor won&rsquo;t increase
Capital Gains Tax (CGT) rates for residential property, with modest increases in CGT on the sale of shares more likely (remember profits from residential property for higher rate tax payers already attract a higher 24% rate compared with 20% for shares).
It is often said that a week is a long time in politics, meaning a fortnight must be an age, so we&rsquo;ll stop speculating for now.&nbsp; Keep an eye out for our next Roundup, a Budget special, out at the end of the month once we know more.
&nbsp;

Residential Roundup - 18 October

https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1729259603/resi/gb/cms/Research/Images/jll-residential-roundup-banner.jpg

New CPI figures show UK inflation held steady at 2.2% in the year to August 2024. Although only marginally
 higher than the Bank of England&rsquo;s target of 2%, the latest figures confirm inflationary pressures are
 persisting. The main culprit of the stubborn inflation is air fares, rising 22% between July and August. This
 was offset by falling prices at petrol pumps however, alongside restaurants and hotels. Oil prices remain low,
 by historical norms. At the time of writing, the average price of Brent Crude is trading at around $73.5 USD per
 barrel, but perhaps much of this can be attributed to excess supply as opposed to falling demand.The Bank of England (BoE) held interest rates at 5% at their latest MPC meeting. This was almost a foregone conclusion following Wednesday&rsquo;s news that inflation remains marginally above the 2% target, with some fearing another rate cut would further
 spike inflation. The BoE are now forecasting that inflation could rise to near 3% by year end, fuelled by rising energy prices. <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/bank-england-hold-bank-rate-this-month-cut-nov-economists-say-2024-09-11/" target="_blank">A recent article by Reuters</a>highlighted that all 65 economists in the September poll predicted the base rate will remain at 5% in September, with 48 of 65 economists predicting the next cut will come in November. The majority
 expect just one more rate cut by year end.Meanwhile, GDP growth flatlined in July for the second consecutive month, meaning the UK is no longer the fastest growing economy in the G7. This is not exactly the economic bounce back that Labour were hoping for and puts even more pressure on Rachel
 Reeves in the upcoming Autumn Budget, who is likely to deliver news of tax raises and spending cuts. The Chancellor acknowledged she has a large black hole to fill, but there will be fears that cuts to public spending could result in further lacklustre
 economic growth for the UK.<h2>Competition heating up amongst lenders</h2>Since the Bank of England announced the first rate cut in four years on 1st August, competition amongst mortgage lenders has been rife.Cooling inflation, a change in government and falling mortgage rates have brought about a new sense of enthusiasm from buyers since July 5th. Major lenders have embraced increased demand in the market, with key players continuing to reduce rates to new
 lows. At the time of writing, the current average 2-year fix (75% LTV) across the big six lenders is 4.65% while the average 5-year fix across the big six lenders stands at 4.18%.Despite falling mortgage rates, first-time buyers are still having a hard time gaining a foot onto the ladder. A recent report from UK Finance revealed that 22% of loans taken out by first-time buyers in June were for extended terms, with most opting
 for 35 or 40 year loans. This reflects a significant rise from 6% five years ago.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1728547433/resi/gb/cms/News/Images/bar_graph.svg" style="text-align:center;" height="450" />The struggle faced by first-time buyers is mirrored by the results of <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/insights/research/buyers-and-tenants-survey-2024" target="_blank">our latest JLL Buyers and Tenants survey</a>. This year,
 41% of tenants said that higher mortgage rates were impacting their ability to purchase a home. Meanwhile, 26% of buyers this year decided to delay their home purchase, 61% of whom said this was because they were waiting for rates to fall.<h2>Housing market</h2>New ONS data on house prices and private rents illustrates a continued strength within the housing market. Private rents increased by 8.4% in the year to August 2024, taking average rents to &pound;1,327 per calendar month in England. Although this represents
 a small decrease from 8.6% in July, rental growth is still proving bullish, particularly in central locations. ONS reported annual rental growth was 9.6% in London, the highest of all regions.The story is almost the opposite for house prices. House price growth across London was the lowest of all regions, at -0.4% in the year to July. The ONS recorded average house prices across the UK reached &pound;290,000 in July, up 2.2% annually.Halifax are now reporting the largest annual increase in house prices across the UK. According to their latest house price index, average house prices were 4.3% higher in August 2024 than a year prior, rising 0.3% on the previous month. Nationwide have
 reported annual growth of 2.4% in August, while the Rightmove September index is reporting 1.2% annual growth.Improved sentiment amongst buyers is having a positive impact on sales activity and house prices. We anticipate this continuing into the autumn as lenders continue to bring competitive rates to the market.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1728547583/resi/gb/cms/News/Images/line-graph.svg" style="text-align:center;" height="450" /><h2>Renters Rights Bill</h2>Last week, the government introduced the Renters Rights Bill, Labour&rsquo;s version of the previous Renters Reform Bill, first introduced by the Theresa May Conservative government in 2019. A raft of updates to the bill have now been announced, of which
 some of the most significant changes from the perspective of landlords and tenants are detailed below: Tenants:There will be an end to fixed-term tenancies, moving to rolling period tenancies. Tenants will have power to end the tenancy, by giving two months&rsquo; notice.There will be a single date after Royal Assent and Commencement for the removal of Section 21 evictions, which is not dependent on court reform happening first. This will give tenants immediate security, meaning that the tenancy will only end if the tenant
 leaves by choice, or if the landlord has a valid reason to evict them. Landlords:Landlords can end tenancies if they can evidence a valid ground for possession. Landlords will need to give four months notice to move in or sell the property. However, there will be a new protected period for the tenant at the beginning of the tenancy.
 A new ground for possession will allow landlords renting to students in HMO&rsquo;s to seek possession ahead of each new academic year.Rent Repayment Orders will be expanded so they are wider in scope and for repeat offenders, with fines increasing in line with inflation. There will be a ban on in-tenancy rental increases written in to contracts, with landlords only allowed one rent
 raise per year, to market rate. In addition, there will be a ban on rental bidding wars with lettings agents, with legal requirement for landlords/agents to be unable to ask or accept any bid above the published rent for the property. Neil Short, Area Director &ndash; Residential Lettings, at JLL says &ldquo;As an industry we welcome reforms that will improve living standards within the Private Rented Sector. However, the bill in its current form does raise a few concerns, given Labour&rsquo;s
 large majority it&rsquo;s unlikely that there will be any dramatic changes to the bill. That being said, a lot can happen between now and the Renters Rights Bill gaining Royal Assent. Ensuring that there is a limited negative impact on the supply
 of new private rental homes is of utmost importance. We will keep our clients up to date on how things develop as the bill makes its way through Parliament&rdquo;.<h2>JLL Research | September 2024</h2>JLL is a leading global professional services firm specialising in real estate and investment management, with $16.6bn annual revenue in 2020, operations in over 80 countries and a global workforce of over 90,000. With over 7,000 employees and 15 offices
 in the UK, we support our investor, developer, and occupier clients at every stage of the property lifecycle across both commercial and residential asset classes. This includes land purchase, access to capital, planning, development advisory, leasing,
 building management and sales.JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare
 and student housing.Disclaimer: &copy; 2024 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.

Residential Roundup - 20 September

residential-roundup-20

https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1728546638/resi/gb/cms/News/Images/residential-roundup-20.jpg

UK economic outlook improvingWith economic growth across the UK coming in broadly above expectation so far this year, a raft of forecasters have begun upgrading their outlook for growth. Consensus forecasts now expect the UK economy will grow by 1.0% this year (they were at 0.6%
 at the start of 2024). The Bank of America and the British Chamber of Commerce are the latest to upgrade, both now expecting growth of 1.1% in 2024. Before we get too excited, these aren&rsquo;t big numbers and still mean the UK lags many of our mainland
 European neighbours. However, a brighter picture will embolden investors as many of the other key economic and housing market indicators turn positive in H2.&nbsp;<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1725625974/resi/gb/Articles/Images/RR-6-Sept-1.jpg" />More favourable ratesFollowing the Bank of England&rsquo;s August rate cut and more competitive five-year interbank lending rates (SONIA) emerging we&rsquo;ve seen a flurry of more competitive mortgage rates enter the market.&nbsp; The latest being a five-year fix at sub
 3.8%. While these rates would still make your average 2020 borrower wince, in the &lsquo;new normal&rsquo; a sub 4% rate appears to be sufficient for the wheels of the mortgaged housing market to begin turning more freely again. &nbsp;It's still a little early for the latest mortgage approval figures to fully reflect the impact of lower rates and certainly many have had other things on their mind over the summer break. But the July approval figures do appear to be showing the early
 signs of an uptick in activity. The latest figures from the Bank of England showing July approvals rose to 62,000, the highest since September 2022. More stock entering the marketRightmove reported an uptick in listings this summer, with July recording an 11% annual increase in stock reaching the market for sale. Rate cuts in early August added further to vendors propensity to list, with listings to mid-month in August up 19%
 on the same period a year earlier. Prospective buyers are returning to the market. Here at JLL the number of viewings in July and August are up 48% compared with the same period a year ago. Prices are rising too, with Nationwide reporting prices up 2.4% annually in August, having risen
 on an annual basis every month since February.Transactions riseTransaction data is always a lagging indicator. With lengthy conveyancing delays also meaning the time between a buyer committing to purchase and the sale completing often stretching to more than three months. However, even accounting for these delays
 we are starting to see the number of homes changing hands edge up. The latest government figures showing just shy of 91,000 seasonally adjusted transactions in July, up 7% on July 2023.Rents The latest new lets figures from Homelet show a disparity between rental growth nationally. London, often the most reactive market, has seen annual rental growth of just above flat this month at 0.1% (albeit up 2.2% on last month). Whereas some regional
 markets are still seeing rents rise by up to 9.4% (East of England).Conflicting reports on landlords selling upRightmove data shows an increase in listings of homes for sale which have been previously let on the portal.&nbsp; With 18% of homes currently on the market nationally previously listed to let, up from 8% in 2010 and 14% over the last five years. This
 rises to 29% in London, although it is worth noting that around 30% of households in London rent privately, far higher than in other regions. There are a few reasons homes are being listed. Obviously, debt costs for leveraged buy-to-let investors have risen, in addition to the removal of tax breaks on mortgage interest payments. &nbsp;Uncertainty around capital gains and inheritance tax post
 budget alongside the expected return of the 2030 EPC C obligation will also be impacting investors&rsquo; choices. However, this too could be a sign of a stronger sales market, with reluctant landlords who in a more challenging market have looked
 to rent rather than sell simply returning to the market to test the water. &nbsp;
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1725625974/resi/gb/Articles/Images/RR-6-Sept-2.jpg" />New developmentDelivering more homes was one of the key pledges of the Labour manifesto, with all regions aside from London set to see their housing targets increase (even London&rsquo;s new targets still expected to be more than double recent delivery). For more on what this means at a local level <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/insights/research/jll-new-housing-targets-analysis-targets-by-numbers-august-2024">click here.</a>But the latest starts and completions figures for Q1 demonstrate the scale of the task ahead. The Q1 2024 figures, released at the end of August show there were 22,310 house building starts (seasonally adjusted) in England, a 11% increase compared with the previous quarter, but 41% down on the same quarter of 2023.&nbsp; The introduction of new building regulations just over a year ago caused starts to spike in Q2 2023 at almost 67,000. This meant schemes which would under normally (regulatory) circumstances have been delivered later were pulled forward.&nbsp; As a result, falls in more recent quarters could be overstated, but in any case, we&rsquo;ll need to see a reversal of this trend soon to get near the 1.5 million homes target within this parliament. In case you missed it&hellip;.Our latest Big Six Residential Development Report, <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/insights/research/big-six-residential-development-report-summer-2024">Click here to read more.</a>

Residential Roundup – 6 September

jll-why-to-live-in-greenwich-london

Looking closely at the latest numbers to see what impact the new government and more importantly the August rate cut are having on the market.

Regardless of your age September has a distinct back to school feel. Those of us ditching the beach bag for the briefcase will be looking closely at the latest numbers to see what impact the new government and more importantly the August rate cut are having on the market. Despite the usual summer slowdown making it a bit more difficult to tell, there are signs that the market is waking up.

https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1725625833/resi/gb/Articles/Images/RR-6-Sept.jpg

Housebuilding was a key element of the Labour party election campaign. Angela Rayner announcing plans to build 1.5 million homes over the next five years. Since the election Labour have announced a new methodology to calculate housing need and set new housing targets for local authorities across England. These will exceed original housing targets set by the Conservatives in 2017 of 300,000 homes per annum (scrapped in 2022), delivering 370,000 homes per annum across England, but how do the new targets differ?Target by numbers: increase from old target to newApplying the new measure of housing need means most local authorities across England (59%) could see their housing target more than double. The housing target for 32% of local authorities has increased by up to 50% from the old target, while an additional
 27% of local authorities have seen an increase in their target by 51-100%.17.6% of local authorities across England have seen their housing targets decrease under the new methodology, most of which are in Greater London. It&rsquo;s worth noting here that the removal of the Urban Uplift Policy, originally created to direct housing
 growth to the twenty largest urban areas, has meant other large cities and towns, like Manchester, have also seen a reduction. The removal of the policy now means that housing targets are more evenly distributed across England, with some smaller towns
 and rural areas now targeted with significant increases in housebuilding.More rural areas such as Tamworth in Staffordshire and Pendle in Lancashire have seen an increase in their targets of 261% and 209% respectively, some of the largest percentage increases across England. This equates to 321 and 258 additional new homes
 now required.In terms of actual numbers, Birmingham has the largest housing target of 4,974 new homes. But due to the new methodology and the removal of the urban uplift this new target is 31% lower than the old target of 7,174 new homes. Redcar and Cleveland has
 experienced the largest increase under the new methodology (+1,338%) an increase from just 45 new homes, to 642.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1725013073/resi/gb/cms/News/Images/jll-new-housing-targets-analysis-picture1.png" /><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1725013076/resi/gb/cms/News/Images/jll-new-housing-targets-analysis-picture2.png" /><h2>Targets by numbers: New target vs net additions</h2>But even with the new approach London still accounts for 22% of housing targets across England, the highest of all regions. In numerical terms, the largest housing targets outside of London are seen across the South East and East of England regions. A
 housing target of 40,837 across the South East will account for 17% of the total target across England. So how do these targets compare against previous housing delivery?The map above compares London boroughs new housing targets against historical average annual net additions (2020/2021 &ndash; 2022/2023). There are six boroughs across London where new housing targets exceed average annual net additions by more than five
 times. These include Bromley, Camden, Kensington and Chelsea, Lewisham, Redbridge, and Richmond.Comparing targets with historical net additions shows areas across the Midlands have historically been closer to reaching housing targets. On average since 2020/2021, the East Midlands region has hit 83% of its housing target, followed by the North West
 (75%) and the West Midlands (71%).A handful of areas across England have a significant amount of work to do over the next five years if they are to meet housing targets. Portsmouth in the South East will need to increase housing delivery by 8.3 times the current rate if it is to meet
 its target of 1,098 homes per annum. On average since 2021/2022 it delivered just 12% of the proposed target.Just 32 local authorities have met housing targets each year since 2020/2021. Half of these areas now have a smaller housing target, or a small increase of 0-50%, compared to historic targets.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1725013079/resi/gb/cms/News/Images/jll-new-housing-targets-analysis-picture3.png" /><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1725013077/resi/gb/cms/News/Images/jll-new-housing-targets-analysis-picture4.png" /><h2>Targets by numbers: Total value of new homes</h2>If we built all the 370,000 homes target the total value of new homes built could be as much as &pound;148bn across England. London alone could see the total value of homes completed top &pound;55bn. Outside London, the South East of England will see
 the largest total value from new homes if targets are met (&pound;30bn).The total value of new homes across the top 20 local authorities (in terms of housing target) will exceed &pound;20bn (excluding London). The top 20 have been defined as the local authorities with the largest housing targets. A significant proportion
 of these are located across the Midlands or the North of England, including Birmingham, Manchester, most areas in Yorkshire and County Durham.Average house prices are typically higher in southern areas of England, therefore we can expect higher total value from new homes development in these areas. Despite having the sixth highest housing target across England, average house prices in Buckinghamshire
 of &pound;558,740 in 2024 mean the area is set to record &pound;2.3bn total value in new homes if the housing target of 4,122 is met. This is the highest total value across England.Cornwall unitary authority has the second largest housing target of 4,454 new homes. The undersupply and affordability of homes across Cornwall has been cited as critical for many years now. Homes in the area, particularly along the coast, have been bought
 up by those seeking a holiday home or holiday let. This, coupled with planning and development constraints within Cornwall National Landscape areas, means little stock available for permanent residents, particularly affordable homes.The housing target across Cornwall has increased by 65%, from 2,707 to 4,454. By comparison, annual net additions in Cornwall have averaged 2,681. This means they will need to increase by 1.6 times the current build rate to meet new targets. With an average
 house price of &pound;344,370 (year to date 2024), this would assume a total value of &pound;1.53bn in new stock.<h2>Table 1: Total value of new homes (proposed to be built), by region</h2><style>td,
 th {
 padding: 8px;
 }

 tr {
 text-align: left;
 }

 .red {
 background-color: #131e28 !important;
 color: #fff !important;
 }

 tr:nth-child(odd) {
 background-color: #e7e8e9;
 }

 .subheading {
 background-color: #fff !important;
 }

 table {
 border: 1px solid #fff;
 }
</style>
<div style="overflow-x:auto;" align="center"><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="1" align="left"><tbody><tr class="red"><th scope="col">Region</th><th scope="col">Number of homes &ndash; new methodology</th><th scope="col">Total value of new homes (&pound;bn)</th></tr><tr><td>London</td><td>80,693</td><td>&pound;55.7</td></tr><tr><td>South East England</td><td>69,060</td><td>&pound;30.3</td></tr><tr><td>East of England</td><td>44,858</td><td>&pound;14.5bn</td></tr><tr><td>South West England</td><td>40,343</td><td>&pound;14.2bn</td></tr><tr><td>North West England</td><td>37,817</td><td>&pound;9.1bn</td></tr><tr><td>West Midlands</td><td>31,754</td><td>&pound;8.7bn</td></tr><tr><td>Yorkshire and the Humber</td><td>27,433</td><td>&pound;6.3bn</td></tr><tr><td>East Midlands</td><td>27,382</td><td>&pound;7.1bn</td></tr><tr><td>North East England</td><td>12,202</td><td>&pound;2.2bn</td></tr><tr><th scope="col">Grand Total</th><th scope="col">371,541</th><th scope="col">&pound;148.1bn</th></tr></tbody></table></div><img style="padding-top:2%;" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1725013076/resi/gb/cms/News/Images/jll-new-housing-targets-analysis-picture5.png" /><h2>JLL Research | August 2024</h2>JLL is a leading global professional services firm specialising in real estate and investment management, with $16.6bn annual revenue in 2020, operations in over 80 countries and a global workforce of over 90,000. With over 7,000 employees and 15 offices
 in the UK, we support our investor, developer, and occupier clients at every stage of the property lifecycle across both commercial and residential asset classes. This includes land purchase, access to capital, planning, development advisory, leasing,
 building management and sales.JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare
 and student housing.Disclaimer: &copy; 2024 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.

JLL New Housing Targets Analysis – Targets by numbers - August 2024

https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1725014742/resi/gb/cms/News/Images/jll-new-housing-targets-analysis-1920x300.jpg

<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1723790127/resi/gb/Articles/Images/RR-16-Aug-1.jpg" />
GDP rising
The UK economy grew by 0.6% in the three months to June, following a 0.7% increase in Q1. The services sector was the key driver behind growth, rising 0.8%, with both manufacturing and construction posting a marginal fall of 0.1% (although worth remembering
 this was pre-election and pre-rate cut). Annually, this means real GDP is estimated to have risen 0.9%. There is good news on per capita GDP growth, too, rising for the second quarter running, albeit still down 0.9% on pre-pandemic highs. 
What does this mean for my mortgage? 
The Bank of England&rsquo;s rate cut has started to feed through into the mortgage markets. Five-year fixes for those with healthy deposits are now available at below 3.9%, with best-buy two-year equivalents sitting at circa 4.3%.
More activity? 
The latest data from the S&amp;P Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) suggests activity in the construction sector continues to increase. Its latest release shows activity rising for the fifth consecutive month in July. More activity has also led to increases
 in recruitment, with firms reporting a rise in staffing levels for the third consecutive month. Housebuilding, which had lagged the commercial sector, has now also entered growth territory. 
Rental Market
Overall rental growth remains high and unchanged at 8.6%, according to the latest figures from the ONS (Office for National Statistics), but new lets data tells a different story, particularly in London. Rental growth among new lets has fallen from 5.7%
 to 5.2% nationally over the last month, dragged down especially due to London registering a negative reading (-0.4%) for the first time since May 2021. Despite this, RICS (Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors) survey data shows a positive net
 balance of respondents who expect rents to rise in the coming months, including in London.<a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/proposed-reforms-to-the-national-planning-policy-framework-and-other-changes-to-the-planning-system/proposed-reforms-to-the-national-planning-policy-framework-and-other-changes-to-the-planning-system"></a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1723790127/resi/gb/Articles/Images/RR-16-Aug-2.jpg" />
House prices up
Rightmove figures show an increase in activity in July, with the number of sales agreed up 15% on the same period a year ago. The Land Registry House Price Index remains unchanged, with annual growth of 2.7% in June &ndash; the fourth consecutive month
 with rising prices. Nationwide and Halifax indices similarly show growth of more than 2% annually. 
Investor activity 
The Living sector continues to draw investment. The latest JLL figures show investment in Living account for 30% of total real estate investment in H1 2024. The build to rent sector continues to grow, with the number of operational units rising 24% in
 Q2 2024 compared with the same period in 2023.
But the multifamily sector faces many similar challenges to new homes, with high debt cost, increasing regulation and uncertainty over build costs impacting activity in the sector. As a result, the number of units in the pipeline (planning approved or
 under construction) dropping 12% annually in Q2. 
As many of the challenges facing the multifamily sector unwind (a little), investment in single family has continued apace. UK single family investment topped &pound;1.5 billion in the first half of 2024, accounting for more than half of total build to
 rent investment in H1, with the second quarter this year seeing record single family investment of &pound;826 million. To read more <a href="https://www.jll.co.uk/en/views/uk-multifamily-pipeline-slows-down-amid-surge-in-single-family-housing">Click here.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1723790127/resi/gb/Articles/Images/RR-16-Aug-3.jpg" />
&nbsp;

Residential Roundup - 16 August

On the face of it the July inflation figures could give cause for concern, with CPI (Consumer Prices Index) rising for the first time this year, from the 2% Bank of England target in June to 2.2% in July.

On the face of it the July inflation figures could give cause for concern, with CPI (Consumer Prices Index) rising for the first time this year, from the 2% Bank of England target in June to 2.2% in July. But dig a little deeper and there is more positivity in the numbers. Forecasters expect inflation to hover somewhere between 2% and 2.75% for the rest of the year, and the July figure is lower than the 2.4% the Bank predicted.The outlook is more positive for services inflation, too (an indicator that has been watched closely by rate setters on the Monetary Policy Committee) with the July figure of 5.2% down from 5.7% in June and lower than the forecast of 5.6%. Will that be enough to convince the&nbsp;MPC&nbsp;to cut rates further when they meet next month? So far, the markets are doubtful, but further cuts later in the year remain on the cards.UK unemployment fell to 4.2% in July, again below the Bank of England&rsquo;s forecast of 4.4%. Total earnings, including bonuses, rose 4.5% in the latest three-month period. This is the lowest figure since November 2021 but still higher than the Bank would like, throwing more cold water on the likelihood of a September rate cut. Total pay in the private sector was up 5%, down from 5.6% previously.

https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1723790171/resi/gb/Articles/Images/RR-16-August.jpg

The JLL Big Six Residential Development Report compares activity, prices, and rents across six UK cities outside London: Birmingham, Bristol, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Leeds and Manchester. This report incorporates data from the JLL UK Cities index, comparing
 changes in prices and rents across mainstream and prime developments in each city.In the sales market, higher rates, both interest and mortgage, have continued to put pressure on both development viability and buyers&rsquo; budgets. We are beginning to see this reflected in annual price growth across the Big Six cities, with growth
 across the cities remaining flat or marginal over the past year.The rental market across the Big Six cities has remained robust, albeit growth has cooled significantly from double digit highs in H1 2023. There is continued demand for city centre living, particularly from young professionals seeking the lifestyle benefits
 and vibrancy of being centrally located.Prime markets across the Big Six have generally outperformed both the mainstream sales and rental markets, with new prime stock continuing to push quality and amenity provision.<a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/global-cms-assets-np/image/upload/v1725291585/resi/gb/Articles/PDFs/Big_Six_Residential_Development_Report_-_H1_2024.pdf" target="_blank"><button class="Button primary" style="text-align:center;">Click here to read more</button></a>

Big Six Residential Development Report - Summer 2024

Big Six Residential Development Report

https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1723631213/resi/gb/cms/News/Images/jll-big-six-report.jpg

Private outdoor space is now one of the biggest requirements for buyers looking for their new home, in London it is quite rare to have a garden, but terraces offer a fantastic alternative. Whether you're in the heart of central London or in the suburbs, a terrace can provide outdoor space city views and a unique space for relaxation and entertainment. When the sun is out a terrace can provide the perfect low maintenance outdoor space you might be looking for.<img style="text-align:center;padding-top:5%;" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1723610540/resi/gb/cms/News/Images/jll-st-marychurch-street.jpg" />St Marychurch Street, SE16 &pound;1,675,000 A stunning duplex penthouse in the centre of Rotherhithe village, with a leafy roof terrace that feels like a little sanctuary in this corner of London, and boasts views of the city
 in every direction.
 <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/sale-penthouse/london-se16-4hw-p154024" target="_blank">Explore this property</a>
<img style="text-align:center;padding-top:5%;" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1723610540/resi/gb/cms/News/Images/jll-dundee-wharf.jpg" />Dundee Wharf, E14 &pound;1,999,999 Spread across the entire 10th floor is this beautiful waterside penthouse, a spiral staircase leads up to the private roof terrace with sweeping river views of many of London&rsquo;s iconic
 landmarks.
 <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/sale-penthouse/london-e14-8ax-p151374" target="_blank">Explore this property</a>
<img style="text-align:center;padding-top:5%;" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1723614301/resi/gb/cms/News/Images/jll-one-thames-quay-new.jpg" />One Thames Quay, E14 Prices from &pound;595,000 An exceptional selection of stylish one, two and three bedroom apartments across a 48-storey tower. Every apartment offers panoramic riverside views across the London skyline.
 <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/sale-development/one-thames-quay/london-a0o8w00000j3cxguar" target="_blank">Explore this property</a>
<img style="text-align:center;padding-top:5%;" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1723610545/resi/gb/cms/News/Images/jll-chiswick-green.jpg" />Chiswick Green, Chiswick W4 Prices from &pound;585,000 A contemporary collection of one, two and three bedroom apartments, penthouses and townhouses arranged across four buildings. Every home benefits from private balconies
 or terraces and communal roof terraces.
 <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/sale-development/chiswick-green/london-a0o1i00000apzvzuan" target="_blank">Explore this property</a>
<img style="text-align:center;padding-top:5%;" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1723614198/resi/gb/cms/News/Images/jll-battersea-powerstation-new.jpg" />Battersea Power Station, Nine Elms SW11 Prices from &pound;547,000 A collection of one and two bedroom apartments on Electric Boulevard at Battersea Power Station. Residents benefit from the communal Battersea roof gardens,
 with dramatic views of London&rsquo;s skyline to both the east and the west.
 <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/sale-terraced/london-se10-8qt-p151226" target="_blank">Explore this property</a>

The best terraces in London

https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1723569940/resi/gb/cms/News/Images/jll-the-best-private-terraces-on-the-market-in-london.png

Residential: What To Look Out For In 2017

Communication. Disrupted.

Is London Planning Too Centrally Focused?

The Timber Solution For Private Rented Communities

The problem with Space Standards

Can Government deliver new trio of supply solutions?

Hybrid Estate Agents: How Big Can They Grow?

Housing Solutions For A New Chancellor

Is London’s Olympic legacy worthy of a medal?