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At the recent Movers &amp; Shakers Build to Rent Conference, I launched a JLL perspective on the growth of the sector as it moves through its 10th anniversary. It has grown impressively, now up to 140,000 homes completed, under construction or in pipeline according to the British Property Federation. While this is the easy figure to use as the sector&rsquo;s scorecard, there are a range of ancillary achievements of at least equal note.The &lsquo;product&rsquo; is in fact a service. This is a profoundly simple statement, but the fact that many still call it Build to Rent is demonstration that the sector is stuck in a construction and delivery mindset. Notwithstanding, the innovation that is seeping into the collective consciousness of multifamily providers is widely in evidence and increasingly it&rsquo;s about focussing on tenants as customers, relationships and experience.These signals are fantastic to see and as someone who has been a sector evangelist since those early days of the Private Rented Sector Initiative back in May 2009 (&lsquo;What is a cap rate...?&rsquo;), we have indeed come along way.So, what will be the shape of multifamily in the next 10 years? Surely the sector will, as an asset class, reach some kind of&nbsp;<a href="http://residential.jll.co.uk/insights/blogs/UK%20Multifamily%2025bn%20pa%20Sector">maturity in trading volumes</a>, but I&rsquo;m also interested in more nuanced measures. Rather than count numbers or investment volumes, I want to look at the sector as a driver of change.1) Customer Service&nbsp;Customer service is diversifying the industry with a professionalised management model. Multifamily now has an imperative to put the customer experience first and the physical creation of the asset second. It was fascinating to note at the recent&nbsp;<a href="https://www.buildtorentforum.co.uk/">Movers and Shakers event</a>&nbsp;the range of logos that didn&rsquo;t exist when multifamily was born in the UK. The industry will continue to diversify and with it, traditional construction orientated brands will be back of house and this new wave of management and service-centric organisation will become the visible face of the industry.2) Off-Site ConstructionThe construction industry is in dire need of modernisation. Multifamily investors, with a focus on stable income streams, have a stronger incentive to procure through housing manufacturers in order to drive up the pace of delivery (and the let up period), while upholding a precision-engineering approach to new homes. This digital disruption of housebuilding needs order volumes to make it work and the higher volumes now coming through in multifamily will do the job very nicely, thank you.3) Sustainable HomesDriving up build quality will also support more sustainable design. Better buildings can mean more energy efficient buildings. Better buildings can also mean healthier communities and residents, whether through improved physical environments or through the communalised spaces that improve social interactions to combat loneliness and forge stronger bonds. The best bit is that with multifamily, there is a commercial imperative to drive sustainability. In an era void of meaningful policy to uphold improved build quality, this commercial drive to create sustainable homes should be welcomed by Government.4) Policy and InnovationAlthough Government policy is broadly favourable for UK housing supply, there has been limited explicit support for the multifamily sector. The industry should not expect this to change materially over the medium term, which is to say that success will be measured through working with the grain of current house policy (notably on affordable housing requirements) and driving innovation from within the industry. This will centre on disruptive technologies in the supply chain and within operating platforms. JLL Spark&rsquo;s&nbsp;<a href="https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/livly-announces-10-million-financing-round-to-digitally-transform-the-multi-family-rental-experience-300810659.html">recent investment in Livly</a>&nbsp;is a great example of the type of disruption that will replace existing brands with new, more progressive firms.5) Reaching MaturityThe attributes of a mature sector are attractive to a broader range of institutional capital and will be among the most exciting changes in European property investment over the next decade. JLL estimates that trading volumes, which reached 45 billion euros in 2018, could double over the next decade. In the UK, the equivalent figures are an even sharper growth from &pound;5.8Bn to &pound;25Bn should the sector fulfil its domestic potential. It will already overtake Retail to become the second-largest sector in Europe during 2019.There is an extraordinary opportunity to channel capital into this sector at a time when nearly all of Europe&rsquo;s leading cities need investment to drive housing market growth and renewal. This will cover the Living spectrum from student housing through to co-living, multifamily and ultimately, to the retirement segment. There is something quite exciting about channelling society&rsquo;s capital directly back towards society&rsquo;s most basic needs &ndash; and being able to do so on sound commercial terms.

The Shape of Multifamily

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From Build to Rent to Multifamily - what does the sector look like as it turns 10 years old, and what does the future hold?

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<div id="residentialcontent_0_LeftColumn"><div>The past 12 months saw just under &pound;6bn invested in UK multifamily &ndash; making it the second largest market in Europe, still some way off Germany in first place, but with a gap starting to open on the rest.But what scale will the sector be when it celebrates its 20th birthday in 10 years&rsquo; time?The JLL Living Research team undertook some exercises comparing UK multifamily with its transatlantic cousin in the USA to try to answer this question. And, if our estimates prove to be correct, UK multifamily could become a &pound;25bn-plus sector
 by the mid-to-late 2020s.UK and US similaritiesNow, it should be acknowledged that our workings are based solely on tracking the growth of US multifamily and then applying it to the UK. There is no certainty that the UK will grow exactly as the US did. However, there are some very good reasons
 to assume it might.&nbsp;Both the UK and US have very similar trends in home ownership. In 2005, around 70% of American homes were owner occupied compared with 71% in the UK. By 2018, home ownership in the US had fallen to 64% in the US and 62% of UK households.In both countries this fall in home ownership is driven not only by declining affordability, but also by the growth of a cohort of people who can see the benefits and flexibility that private renting can offer &ndash; particularly in dense urban
 areas where demand often outstrips supply.&nbsp;The &pound;25bn QuestionFirstly, we looked at the overall population of the UK and the USA and the current multifamily investment volumes in each country. The USA has a population of 326m and saw multifamily volumes of &pound;126.7bn in 2018. The UK has 66 million people
 and its 2018 volumes were just under &pound;6bn. If the UK was to see a proportionally similar investment in multifamily compared with its overall population as is currently the case in the USA, investment would increase to around the &pound;25bn
 pa mark.But how long would that growth take? Well, if we compare the growth story in the US, about 10 years.&nbsp;<div>&nbsp;</div>Between 2000 and 2009 US multifamily was a similar scale investment class to US industrial and US retail. Incidentally, those three sectors are currently a similar scale in the UK.&nbsp;&nbsp;Following the global financial crisis, US multifamily came more into line with the US offices sector &ndash; historically the largest sector - and from 2015 onwards multifamily has become the undisputed largest real estate investment class in
 the US finishing 2018 with volumes of &pound;126.7bn compared with US offices at &pound;100bn.In comparison, the office sector is currently the largest sector in the UK with volumes of &pound;28.8bn in 2018. If UK multifamily investment was to move in line with the offices sector, it could potentially even exceed our &pound;25bn pa estimate.Firstly, we looked at the overall population of the UK and the USA and the current multifamily investment volumes in each country. The USA has a population of 326m and saw multifamily volumes of &pound;126.7bn in 2018. The UK has 66 million people
 and its 2018 volumes were just under &pound;6bn. If the UK was to see a proportionally similar investment in multifamily compared with its overall population as is currently the case in the USA, investment would increase to around the &pound;25bn
 pa mark.</div><div><div><article><div><div></div></div></article></div></div><div><div><article><div><div></div><div></div></div></article></div></div></div><div><img alt="Multifamily Graph 1" src="https://weasresicmspd.azurewebsites.net/images/default-source/blog---graphs/multifamily-graph-1.jpg?sfvrsn=2139d58c_4" sf-size="342502" /><img alt="Multifamily Growth Graph" src="https://weasresicmspd.azurewebsites.net/images/default-source/blog---graphs/multifamily-growth-graph.jpg?sfvrsn=b3ed4ca6_4" sf-size="452774" /></div>

UK multifamily - the £25bn pa sector?

The UK multifamily sector turns 10 years old this year. While growth at first was slow, make no mistake, it is ramping up through the gears now.

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Looking ahead over the next five years is no easy task in the current climate with the UK still yet to resolve its future relationship with the European Union.Inevitably though, the UK Government will refocus attention on domestic policies as the sphere of influence from Brexit diminishes.And there are plenty of housing issues that need to be addressed. These include affordability, taxation, regulation in the private rental sector, affordable homes, housing supply, land value intervention, lack of skilled labour and digital construction &ndash; to name a few.JLL housing market forecasts assume that a Brexit deal is hammered out over the coming months and that we have a transition period until the end of 2020. During this time, greater political certainty will instill renewed confidence to UK businesses and consumers leading to improved housing markets.But residential markets will take time to pick up from current lows. Our forecasts predict a steady recovery, with some London markets receiving an additional bounceback boost.

Price growth to remain modest for UK Residential

Looking ahead over the next five years is no easy task in the current climate with the UK still yet to resolve its future relationship with the European Union.

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As Government pivots back towards domestic policy issues, new housing supply across the range of tenures, geographies&nbsp;and affordability levels will be reasserted as the number 1 priority. Yet, incessant focus on enabling first-time buyers has been to the detriment of priorities that address the needs of older people, alongside the very basic capital investment required in affordable housing to offset the ballooning housing benefit bill. Despite a supercharged and proactive stance from Homes England, the challenges of housing delivery will likely get harder, not easier. Build cost inflation remains stubbornly persistent as the skills crisis grows. Irrespective of Brexit impacts on labour, there is little to reverse the tide of greying workers retiring and the need for the industry to pivot towards manufactured solutions in digital construction. The Letwin Review also encourages diversity on large sites to speed up delivery rates. This will require some creativity from master developers, but there are options such as a more mature multi-family offer alongside the spectrum of affordable housing solutions and &ndash; where appropriate &ndash; even co-living solutions. The lifting of borrowing caps is also expected to spawn a new wave of direct delivery from Local Authorities. However, without their former expertise or current capacity for direct delivery, Local Authority delivery is likely to be more successful through partnerships with the private sector in the medium-term. This is not without its own challenges of managing the political backlash from untrusting constituents and as a result the flow of supply from Local Authorities is more likely to be a trickle than flood-like. As with the Letwin Review, policy attention is more likely to shift to land value as a way to create more headroom to deliver homes at or below current market prices. This is right in principle, but very difficult in practice. Where private land markets perceive insufficient upside from selling, land will be harder to come by and the entire process of delivery will be undermined at the first hurdle.&nbsp; As ever, both opportunities and challenges are equally well represented for the UK housing market over the year ahead.

Bridging the Gap

The UK economic and political landscape has been dominated by Brexit over the past 2&frac12; years. The next 2&frac12; years are likely to be similar, albeit dealing with a different phase of the process.

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At the recent Movers &amp; Shakers Build to Rent Conference, I launched a JLL perspective on the growth of the sector as it moves through its 10th anniversary. It has grown impressively, now up to 140,000 homes completed, under construction or in pipeline according to the British Property Federation. While this is the easy figure to use as the sector&rsquo;s scorecard, there are a range of ancillary achievements of at least equal note. The &lsquo;product&rsquo; is in fact a service. This is a profoundly simple statement, but the fact that many still call it Build to Rent is demonstration that the sector is stuck in a construction and delivery mindset. Notwithstanding, the innovation that is seeping into the collective consciousness of multifamily providers is widely in evidence and increasingly it&rsquo;s about focussing on tenants as customers, relationships and experience. These signals are fantastic to see and as someone who has been a sector evangelist since those early days of the Private Rented Sector Initiative back in May 2009 (&lsquo;What is a cap rate...?&rsquo;), we have indeed come along way. So, what will be the shape of multifamily in the next 10 years? Surely the sector will, as an asset class, reach some kind of maturity in trading volumes, but I&rsquo;m also interested in more nuanced measures. Rather than count numbers or investment volumes, I want to look at the sector as a driver of change. 1)&nbsp;Customer Service&nbsp; Customer service is diversifying the industry with a professionalised management model. Multifamily now has an imperative to put the customer experience first and the physical creation of the asset second. It was fascinating to note at the recent Movers and Shakers event the range of logos that didn&rsquo;t exist when multifamily was born in the UK. The industry will continue to diversify and with it, traditional construction orientated brands will be back of house and this new wave of management and service-centric organisation will become the visible face of the industry. 2) Off-Site Construction The construction industry is in dire need of modernisation. Multifamily investors, with a focus on stable income streams, have a stronger incentive to procure through housing manufacturers in order to drive up the pace of delivery (and the let up period), while upholding a precision-engineering approach to new homes. This digital disruption of housebuilding needs order volumes to make it work and the higher volumes now coming through in multifamily will do the job very nicely, thank you. 3) Sustainable Homes Driving up build quality will also support more sustainable design. Better buildings can mean more energy efficient buildings. Better buildings can also mean healthier communities and residents, whether through improved physical environments or through the communalised spaces that improve social interactions to combat loneliness and forge stronger bonds. The best bit is that with multifamily, there is a commercial imperative to drive sustainability. In an era void of meaningful policy to uphold improved build quality, this commercial drive to create sustainable homes should be welcomed by Government. 4) Policy and Innovation Although Government policy is broadly favourable for UK housing supply, there has been limited explicit support for the multifamily sector. The industry should not expect this to change materially over the medium term, which is to say that success will be measured through working with the grain of current house policy (notably on affordable housing requirements) and driving innovation from within the industry. This will centre on disruptive technologies in the supply chain and within operating platforms. JLL Spark&rsquo;s&nbsp;<a href="https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/livly-announces-10-million-financing-round-to-digitally-transform-the-multi-family-rental-experience-300810659.html">recent investment in Livly</a>&nbsp;is a great example of the type of disruption that will replace existing brands with new, more progressive firms. 5) Reaching Maturity The attributes of a mature sector are attractive to a broader range of institutional capital and will be among the most exciting changes in European property investment over the next decade. JLL estimates that trading volumes, which reached 45 billion euros in 2018, could double over the next decade. In the UK, the equivalent figures are an even sharper growth from &pound;5.8Bn to &pound;25Bn should the sector fulfil its domestic potential. It will already overtake Retail to become the second-largest sector in Europe during 2019. There is an extraordinary opportunity to channel capital into this sector at a time when nearly all of Europe&rsquo;s leading cities need investment to drive housing market growth and renewal. This will cover the Living spectrum from student housing through to co-living, multifamily and ultimately, to the retirement segment. There is something quite exciting about channelling society&rsquo;s capital directly back towards society&rsquo;s most basic needs &ndash; and being able to do so on sound commercial terms.<div>&nbsp;</div>

Multifamily

From Build to Rent to Multifamily &ndash; what does the sector look like as it turns 10 years old, and what does its future hold?

&nbsp;From Build to Rent to Multifamily &ndash; what does the sector look like as it turns 10 years old, and what does its future hold?

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Wishful Thinking&nbsp;&nbsp;
 
Change is a constant. It&rsquo;s hard not to love that little paradox. At the same time, with yet another new housing minister for the industry, it also makes me wince just a little.&nbsp; 
 
Kit Malthouse is the new baton-carrier in chief for housing delivery and early indications are that we will see relative continuity in policy terms. Kit has a solid pedigree understanding the complexities of development through his days in London local politics and is well-placed to make a meaningful contribution to Government&rsquo;s housing supply ambitions. For this we should be thankful - and a little relieved. 
 
Unaffordability is a national scourge, new supply across the spectrum of tenures still matters and modernising our systems of production through digital construction is still very much on the agenda. As ever, the 'how' element of these issues is the biggest challenge. Kit has his work cut out. 
 
Homes England is also on the job, but housing remains the most important domestic policy agenda outside of flu season, so we all hope Kit has more to offer. Through the prism of Grenfell and negative news stories on the experiences of new build customers, we need to ensure that the drive for greater volume does not come at the cost of quality. On that basis I would like to rekindle an old favourite that was a forgotten victim of the global recession - sustainability.&nbsp; 
 
There will be howls of indignation in some quarters I'm sure, but the fact is, we have made no meaningful strides towards an uprating of sustainable quality in new homes in the last decade and we are a long way backwards in regulatory terms. Anyone remember the drive towards 'zero carbon' homes? 
 
Our collective failure to improve the sustainability of UK housing delivery should be an embarrassment. As someone who regularly tours international practitioners around UK product I can assure you our sustainability credentials are several steps off the pace. Sustainability isn't just about the environment, and this isn&rsquo;t one of those browbeats to 'do better' for dear Mother Earth. This is an argument for sustainability on commercial terms. Yes, that's right; sustainable residential design can help make you money. 
 
The Rapacious Tree Hugger
 
OK, I admit - this is actually more of a cost savings than revenue generation story. Anyway, I've hooked you now, so stay with me as its about to get good. 
 
In the decade since the global recession, the UK housing market has indeed both changed, and stayed the same. We have all of those same challenges of unaffordability and under supply. We also run a constant narrative of needing to 'do something' while at the same time achieving very little. There are however, two notable exceptions. 
 
First, the growth in Build to Rent during this cycle is actually pretty extraordinary. Latest British Property Federation statistics speak for themselves, with over 22,000 units now completed and over 100,000 committed units on the way.&nbsp; Those figures were zero and zero respectively, 10 years ago. 
 
The other really big shift I would like to note is Registered Provider consolidation. The big are getting bigger and moreover, the full spectrum of Registered Providers are getting smarter and more efficient with the use of balance sheet leverage in capital markets and in selective engagement with market-facing activity to cross-subsidise core activity. 
 
These changes, it turns out, are quite important for the commercial viability of sustainable homes. In short, a transition towards long-term management of product rather than sales-orientated delivery creates an alignment of interests between the ongoing management of residential buildings and the people who live there. That matters a lot, because just like in the commercial property sector when investors are reaping the benefits of up front investments, they tend to make different decisions. 
 
In a world dominated by &lsquo;for-sale&rsquo; product, and a consumer&rsquo;s marginal willingness to pay barely above zero, sustainability is delivered through regulation. However, as Build to Rent investors and their Registered Provider cousins are squeezing the last pips of value out of newly created assets, which they intend to hold for the long-term, investment in sustainable features like better insulation, triple-glazing, and smart metering, for example, is good business.&nbsp; 
 
To illustrate, a typical erosion of gross to net yield might be circa 25% today on a Build to Rent asset. Imagine what would happen to running returns if that became 22% or even tighter? A 3% savings on running costs generates a net cash improvement of &pound;2.2 million on a sample 200 unit block that JLL recently studied. As more and more buildings are traded on investment value, as determined by cash flow, this is a breakthrough moment. Not bad, for a tree hugger. 
 
Up-front costs have always been the hurdle for sustainable investment. Zero carbon delivery (setting aside this issue of how this is actually defined) was assumed to add something like 25% - 30% to build costs 10 years ago. However the UK industry is transitioning towards manufactured solutions which will help innovators in the sector to militate against many of the input costs associated with sustainable delivery. 
 
Put differently, in a world where digital construction through off-site manufacturing is enabling precision-engineering for home design, that 25%-30% build cost premium is now way off the mark. In fact, there are manufacturers in the UK today that already believe they can already achieve something like the former &lsquo;zero carbon&rsquo; standard for a sub-10% premium over traditional construction. We are nearing the commercial tipping point for sustainable housing delivery.&nbsp; 
 
Digital construction creates a systems approach to housing delivery. Tighter design tolerances for joins in the manufactured home are combined with better programming for trades and integration of sustainable components. Together, this represents a higher quality final product at little or no additions to the unit cost of production. This is a different language to traditional construction, but it will enable a new and better approach to the way homes are made.&nbsp; 
 
Sustainability in new UK housing stock will still struggle to attract a green premium from buyers. It may also have some resistance from corners of both the public and private sector. But investment in sustainable design is very likely to change the way we deliver homes sooner than expected by finally unlocking the financial viability that underpins good commercial decisions.&nbsp; 
 
In that sense, I guess some things never change.
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;

Wishful Thinking

Change is a constant. It's hard not to love that little paradox. At the same time, with yet another new housing minister for the industry, it also makes me wince just a little.

&nbsp;
Change is a constant. It's hard not to love that little paradox. At the same time, with yet another new housing minister for the industry, it also makes me wince just a little.

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<div id="residentialcontent_0_LeftColumn"><div>Do possessions make people happy?This question is frequently tackled by behavioural psychologists. So, what is the answer? Well, as is often the case with the human mind &ndash; it depends. It depends on individuals and it depends on their circumstances.&lsquo;Stuff&rsquo; can certainly make some people happy. However, there is also a growing school of thought that a minimalist lifestyle can also make people happy. In the Netflix documentary Minimalism: a documentary about the important things Joshua Fields Millburn and Ryan Nicodemus (aka The Minimalists) outline a lifestyle of reducing possessions in order to lead a more enjoyable life. They literally believe that less is more and they are not alone. Their emails, podcasts and blogs have a following of around 20 million like-minded people. There is also an increasing body of scientific evidence to support a minimalist lifestyle. Studies by P Brickman (1978), Chaplin &amp; John (2007) and Dunn et al (2008) have all demonstrated that buying possessions does not make people more happy &ndash; in fact, they found a materialistic lifestyle can in fact make people more unhappy.But what does this mean for housing? JLL&rsquo;s recent research&nbsp;<a href="http://residential.jll.co.uk/new-residential-thinking-home/research/micro-solutions-june-2018">Micro Solutions to a Macro Problem</a>&nbsp;explores the role that Micro Living could have in helping to solve the housing crisis. Our research highlights that minimum space standards should not be used as a proxy for good design quality. In fact, using clever engineering solutions makes it possible to create new homes incorporating flexible spaces that are desirable places to live.Building smaller homes could certainly work well for the 20 million minimalists who want less &lsquo;stuff&rsquo;.&nbsp;UK micro homesBut building smaller in the UK has actually already begun, and at quite a significant scale. Our research revealed that there are already more than 550,000 micro homes in the UK that are below the UK minimum space standard of 37 sq m. That&rsquo;s more than the total number of homes in Birmingham.But who lives in those homes? Demographic analysis from CACI reveals there to be a roughly 50:50 split between affluent career climbers and struggling poorer people.This highlights a crucial point about building smaller &ndash; it has to be done for the right people, who have the ability to make a choice. Protections should be in place for the vulnerable and space standards are a part of the protection mechanism that exists. But thinking too rigidly around space also ignores the fact that half of the occupiers of these existing UK micro homes are likely to have sufficient income in which to be able to choose somewhere else to live. But they haven&rsquo;t. They have made an informed decision that the micro home will satisfy their housing needs.It should be made clear that JLL&rsquo;s research does not implicitly find that small housing is a force for good. But nor does it find the contrary. What is clear is that small housing solutions deserve a more objective discussion among developers, occupiers and policy makers.&nbsp;We live in a world where more and more people are living in urban areas &ndash; the UN estimates that two thirds of the world&rsquo;s population will live in cities by 2050 - where households are smaller, people are living alone for longer and urban living is getting less affordable. That&rsquo;s quite a headache for town and city planners.Could micro homes help relieve that headache? They certainly could be part of the cure.&nbsp;</div></div><div><div><header><h5>&nbsp;</h5></header><div></div></div></div>

Do possessions make people happy

This question is frequently tackled by behavioural psychologists. So, what is the answer? Well, as is often the case with the human mind &ndash; it depends. It depends on individuals and it depends on their circumstances.

Do possessions make people happy?

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City AM Article - Housing PolicyIt is clear that the Government intends to intervene more and more in the housing market. This attitude stems partly from the Housing White Paper, issued in February last year, but also a reorganised Home England, with Nick Walkley, a self-described &lsquo;disruptor&rsquo; at the helm, restructuring the former Homes and Communities Agency to be more proactive and interventionist to get more homes delivered more quickly.As an advisor to Government over many years, it has been my experience that change is the only constant when it comes to housing policy. This time, however, is very different. It&rsquo;s no longer a short-term game of political rhetoric based on who can have the most ambitious housing delivery targets. There are tangible signals that show Government is looking at policies that will have lasting change. Here are the most likely ways they&rsquo;ll intervene.&nbsp;Help to Buy (4/5)Housing policy often makes bad politics.&nbsp;It&rsquo;s slow, emotive and divisive &ndash; not easy at the best of times, especially for a Government with a weak majority. With this in mind, Help to Buy has been a beacon of light. As a demand side stimulus it has had a big impact at the pointy end of transactions which provides ministers with a big number &ndash; about 150,000 households &ndash; in the five years since it began.Of course, stimulating demand is, at best, an indirect way to boost supply and as most suspect, probably adds to the problem of higher prices. It seems highly likely that Government will create a new, more restricted version of Help to Buy when the current funding runs out in 2021, but these figures will feature heavily in the run up to the next general election.&nbsp;Housing Infrastructure Fund (HIF) (5/5)The dull part of getting homes built is preparing the land. All too often, the development of sites is delayed or postponed, even with planning permission, because a link road, contamination, basic utility connections or some other hurdle must be overcome before the job of building homes can begin. This all costs time and money, generally up front before income from sales can occur.HIF would step in to break these logjam problems and improve development viability. Nearly &pound;1bn of a &pound;2.6bn pot has been committed already to make sure that where possible, they are not an excuse to slow down pace of delivery or landbank, as is often alleged. HIF won&rsquo;t grab the headlines, but it will make a real difference to speeding up housing delivery.&nbsp;Compulsory Purchase Orders (CPOs) (3/5)Homes England has the capability to force the controllers of large would-be housing sites into action where land banking or other obfuscation is suspected. These powers have been available for some time but have only been seriously threatened for the first time earlier this month on the 260 hectare Chalgrove Airfield site in Oxfordshire, with the capacity for 3,000 homes. These powers will still be used sparingly, but in sufficient number for the message to be clear; inaction will not be tolerated. In combination with the Sir Oliver Letwin review into landbanking, Government is signalling a strong desire to convert more planning permissions into homes where possible.&nbsp;Build to Rent (4/5)Facilitating institutional investment in the private rented sector is a great boost for quantity. Around half of the more than 100,000 homes coming forward as part of this new asset class are based in London. But Londoners are all too familiar with the poor standard of service in the PRS and its professionalization will also improve the quality of properties and their management.It is all fine and good to talk about aspirational home ownership, but the here and now of unaffordability demands a better quality rental experience. At the same time, Build to Rent investors are not reliant on the for-sale market, meaning they are continuing to deliver homes even during weaker periods. This is crucial, as it protects jobs in the supply chain and provides resilience all the way through the housebuilding industry.Some of this will come through better information and support for planners in evaluating new scheme proposals. More directly, the &pound;3.5 billion Government loan guarantee scheme has been working alongside the HIF and proposed changes to planning due out this month to provide a fillip to developers.&nbsp;Affordable Housing (3/5)Towards the end of last year, Government signalled another big shift back towards capital investment in affordable housing. An additional &pound;2 billion on top of the current &pound;7.1 billion funding programme is a paltry sum against the &pound;26 billion spent on housing benefit. But, a move back towards investment in the bricks and mortar rather than income support (through housing benefit) is smarter, long-term thinking. It&rsquo;s a drop in the ocean compared with the scale of need across the country, but it is a sign that Government is listening and is making better long-term decisions on housing for the first time in a decade.Working less well in this respect is Right to Buy, which releases stock out of social housing into the private market. Social housing stock is being depleted at an alarming rate; 75,000 fewer in fact since 2012.Government hasn&rsquo;t fixed the housing crisis. Nowhere near. Yet, I for one am pleased to see policy that is targeting more of the right solutions, across the spectrum of tenures.Building more homes, affordable to more people, will not happen quickly. But the political class has finally worked out what the rest of us already know. High house prices do more harm than good. To deal with them, the plan of action is necessarily long-term. So, too, must be the political commitment to see the plan through.

Thought Leadership

It is clear that the Government intends to intervene more and more in the housing market.

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Are You a Chicken or an Egg? The off-site manufacturing industry has a problem. It has plenty of friends, but nobody - yet - wants to be its best friend.&nbsp; The broader housebuilding industry now seems to acknowledge that modernisation is at hand. Poor quality, aired like dirty laundry across the popular press in 2017, has undermined the faith and trust that consumers put into new build homes. Talk of the 'new build discount' is particularly concerning should buyers increasingly prefer secondary stock that has been 'debugged' by first purchasers. The problems are certainly more systemic than anecdotal. The problems are certainly more systemic than anecdotal. 2017 will be remembered as a low point for the housebuilding industry&rsquo;s reputation, with build quality issues, safety standards and the leasehold scandal all hitting headlines over the year.&nbsp;&nbsp; Change is most certainly not for change's sake and it is not simply because Government wills it so.&nbsp; Change may be about a deeper commercial imperative to drive efficiencies. It may be about faster build times to secure an earlier income stream on IRR-driven models. Whatever the reason, it is overdue, it is coming - and that leaves us with the simple question of chicken, or egg? No Joke&nbsp;&nbsp; "Did you hear the one about the labour force that crossed the road? "Of course not; nobody was left on site to hear the punchline." If you weren't convinced by Farmer's eponymous Review, IPPR's recent missive brings home the labour force challenge. In short, we're stuffed. Skills training and apprenticeships have been pandered to for years and at a more basic level, as once contractor put to me recently 'construction just isn't sexy anymore.' Anymore - err, right.&nbsp; There are plenty of anecdotes around subcontractors walking off site to seek a higher bidder. Attracting the attention-span-of-butterflies millennials to the sector means a better offer has to be set out. Digital Construction must be at the middle of any solution. 2018 will see some disruptive forces at play with respect to off-site manufacturing. The innovators will battle cynicism and the fast followers will watch and wait. Legal &amp; General&rsquo;s long-awaited factory will come on-line, providing desperately needed depth and covenant strength to the off-site supply chain. It will also silence the naysayers who say the delays prove it&rsquo;s all just too hard.&nbsp; By year end there will be some sense of the emerging winners and losers and to be clear, it isn't always the first-mover advantage that reaps the best commercial rewards. To want to lead, it matters very much whether your organisation is already feeling the discomfort of cost inflation and volatility, or whether speed of delivery is even desirable.&nbsp; In the end, this is merely a debate about the leaders and laggards, not the direction of travel for our industry. Board-level conversations need to shift so that they focus on how to start, not whether it&rsquo;s a good idea. So the question in 2018 is simple; are you a chicken or an egg?

Are you a chicken or an egg?

The off-site manufacturing industry has a problem. It has plenty of friends, but nobody - yet - wants to be its best friend.

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Bright Side of the Road Collectively, the social housing sector is at a crossroads.&nbsp; That may be an overused term, but particularly for the leading and largest RPs, it has never felt more apt.&nbsp; The choices we make over a relatively short period in the next few months could come to define both our relationship with government, our position in the home building market; and our long-term legacy for years to come.&nbsp; Why?&nbsp; Let&rsquo;s look at the signposts around us.&nbsp; Demand for our core product of social or affordable rented housing is rising &ndash; the population is growing, both in absolute terms and in terms of household formation; and the proportion of our population able to meet their housing needs in the private market, without subsidy, is shrinking as the cost of housing grows in real terms and as real wage growth fails to keep up.&nbsp; On average, there are 25 households on the waiting list for every affordable home the sector provides, with over 80 in some London boroughs.&nbsp; This is despite levels of government financial support in the form of grant over this period which have, at least in government&rsquo;s eyes, been generous (although we know that the total amount goes less far than it did as costs rise). At the same time, the total sector surplus has been rising year on year, to well over &pound;3bn.&nbsp; That is, of course, a good thing.&nbsp; But we have to be careful how that is viewed by politicians and customers.&nbsp; The customer base is widening as housing need creeps ever upwards through the layers of income.&nbsp; On any measure of affordability, average house prices as a multiple of earnings are too high; and therefore housing costs as a proportion of total household income are unsustainably high for many.&nbsp; The sector is meeting that challenge through diversification, as clearly shown by the rising contribution to the surplus made by sales.&nbsp; But more private sales and market renting bring a greater risk of a pro-cyclical financial performance in step with the housing market.&nbsp; Since the 2008 crash, the sector has been fortunate in riding a benign cycle of house prices.&nbsp; Moreover, at a crude level, there is some correlation between RPs&rsquo; asset values and house price inflation, as well as the trend in market rents.&nbsp; This is particularly true, of course, of values on the basis of MV-T which should have led over this period to greater debt capacity for many (subject to that borrowing being serviceable).&nbsp; The latest figures from the HCA certainly show that that appetite is there &ndash; additional borrowing requirements identified by RPs to the HCA total about &pound;25.8bn over the next five years (net &pound;13.8bn).&nbsp; Asset values of course have a huge role to play in supporting that increased borrowing. So those are the signposts; what about the choice of roads ahead?&nbsp; First, as far as asset values are concerned, the deregulatory measures introduced in April put a good deal of power in RPs&rsquo; own hands in terms of freedom around asset management decisions and thus the creation of helpful market evidence.&nbsp; As has been well publicised during the year, valuers are engaged with RICS and other stakeholders to change the definition of EUV-SH, to bring it back into line with recent legislation.&nbsp; That could lead to increases in EUV-SH valuations, whether in support of debt or on balance sheets, depending on RPs&rsquo; behaviour and the evidence this generates.&nbsp; I appreciate, however, that funders need to come to terms with those proposed changes and the scale of any resulting increases in valuation. But they should take confidence from the sector&rsquo;s zero-default track record; the relationship between EUV-SH values and market values with vacant possession; and the unchanging ethos which underpins their borrowers&rsquo; management and governance. But it is not just about asset values.&nbsp; It is also about RPs&rsquo; ability to service that debt and there are certainly some challenges in terms of operational risk on the road ahead.&nbsp; Chief amongst these are welfare reform and the impact of universal credit on cashflow; the ability to drive efficiencies out of the current wave of mergers; and rent policy beyond 2025. Moreover, the tragedy of Grenfell Tower in June must be recognised as a watershed moment for RPs, councils and government.&nbsp; If any good is to come from the dreadful loss of life, it will be in political recognition of the need for investment in buildings to minimise the chance of it ever happening again.&nbsp; But, for many RPs and councils, the necessary investment will divert cash from other areas of investment.&nbsp; It is right and proper that the money should be spent, but unless the budget brings unexpected largesse from Mr Hammond (this article was written before last week&rsquo;s budget), it will mean some hard choices for many RPs. And, if we can overcome all those challenges, we have still got to build the new homes we need.&nbsp; The significant challenges of an ageing and shrinking workforce, compounded by Brexit; and building cost inflation running at almost 4% pa, underlines the scale of the task.&nbsp; The number of planning applications going in, and approvals given, are on the rise but implementing them is not going to be easy.&nbsp; Embracing the opportunities of modular construction will certainly have its part to play.&nbsp; Despite all these challenges, government has given us almost all we asked for as a sector in partial deregulation (yet still with the security of strong regulation); CPI plus 1% is coming back; &pound;2 billion of additional support is on offer; and there is some strongly supportive rhetoric, combined with some of the more challenging policies being kicked into the long grass.&nbsp; As a sector, we must therefore seize the agenda government has set out for us and get on with building.&nbsp; If we do not show that we can do that quickly, on a sufficient scale, with sufficient ambition, government of any colour is not likely to allow us to dither long at the crossroads.

Bright side of the road

Collectively, the social housing sector is at a crossroads. That may be an overused term, but particularly for the leading and largest RPs, it has never felt more apt.

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<div id="residentialcontent_0_LeftColumn"><div>November 2017The UK isn&rsquo;t building enough homes. This may have been a shocking statement 30 years ago, but today it has almost become a clich&eacute;. Naturally the problem is most acute in London, where there is a striking shortage of affordable homes. A number of different approaches have been adopted to alleviate the crisis, each with varying degrees of success. However, what we have seen recently is renewed political impetus, exemplified by Sadiq Khan&rsquo;s ambitious housing targets and willingness to intervene in the planning process to get projects moving. JLL, on the behalf of DTZ Investors, recently secured planning permission for a mixed-use development in Wandsworth. The scheme involves replacing a large Homebase store with 385 residential units, 35 per cent of which will be affordable, along with retail and leisure space. Originally, the project faced opposition from local action groups and residents. It was twice rejected at planning committee level, despite the planning officer&rsquo;s recommendation for approval. Eventually, the mayor of London stepped in to grant approval. Stripped of authority? As Mr Khan outlined in his recent event at City Hall, this development will improve housing provisions in Wandsworth, make better use of space and help improve transport links by contributing to the new entrance to Wandsworth Town station. However, without the intervention it would likely have been held up by local planners. For local planning committees, the reality is that denser housing and more affordable homes need to be built. Holding this rising tide back is not a tenable solution, as the end game may see a centralisation of planning decisions. Put simply, standing in the way of more houses could see local committees stripped of their authority. To capitalise on political momentum, the property industry and planning bodies need to work together to create projects that satisfy local communities while tackling wider housing problems. A clear and open discussion is vital to providing affordable homes and a satisfied community. However, denser housing does not need to mean the tower blocks of the 1960s. It can involve flats designed for sharing or a more innovative use of space. The height of a development itself should not be a deal-breaker, as new materials and approaches to design can significantly reduce the visual impact of large buildings. There are no sides The best approach for pushing these developments forward is to involve all stakeholders constructively. We should not consider property developers and planners as &lsquo;sides&rsquo;, but as partners. Developers and designers need to understand local sensibilities; engage with community groups in areas such as heritage, public services and businesses; and be willing to offer innovative solutions tailored to the community. Meanwhile, planning committees need to forego NIMBYism and work with a more open mind. Centralised planning decisions may carry a greater risk of unforeseen consequences. On the other hand, intractable local committees can cause gridlock in the planning process &ndash; with national repercussions. Ironically, it is this highly localised view of planning that ultimately hurts communities by precipitating national infrastructure and housing problems. The best planning committees balance the needs of their communities with the national interest by collaborating with developers. But Mr Khan&rsquo;s intervention may be a sign of things to come. The above blog was taken from Ashley Perry&rsquo;s regular column with Construction News.<div> </div></div></div>

Mayor Flexes His Muscles over Housing NIMBYism

The UK isn&rsquo;t building enough homes. This may have been a shocking statement 30 years ago, but today it has almost become a clich&eacute;. However, what we have seen recently is renewed political impetus, exemplified by Sadiq Khan&rsquo;s ambitious housing targets and willingness to intervene in the planning process to get projects moving.

Mayor flexes his Muscles over housing NIMBYism

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October 2017Buried deep in the Labour Manifesto - on Pg 86 in fact - was the casual mention of a desire to explore a Land Value Tax. Had the Conservatives run a more effective campaign, it might have got a better airing. As it was, well&hellip;Let me start by saying simply &lsquo;not a fan&rsquo;. The economics are pretty ropey, the practicalities are pretty hopeless, and there have already been 3 failed attempts to bring about some version of LVT during the 20th century. So, why waste time even talking about it?&nbsp;For one simple reason. It&rsquo;s a pretty good idea.An LVT &ndash; narrowly defined &ndash; is an annual tax on the value of the property. It can be more complicated but it doesn&rsquo;t have to be. Just let it sink in that the highest value properties would take the biggest hit. Then consider what that might mean for UK towns and cities.It will not have escaped some of you that LVT did indeed get noticed during and after the General Election. In fact, it got noticed quite some time ago by classical economists who treated land as a factor of production (alongside capital and labour). Because land is finite, theories developed (notably by Riccardo) about the unearned value &ndash; or economic rent &ndash; that landlords accrue through no effort of their own.&nbsp;That word &lsquo;unearned&rsquo; is indeed debatable, but let&rsquo;s assume that land value gains were through the na&iuml;ve good fortune of land ownership in the right place, in advance of the right time. Someone puts in a road, someone else builds a factory and hey presto, you won the land lottery. Unearned yes; unfair &ndash; a matter of perspective.The problem is neo-classicists &ndash; in short, the guys (and it was nearly all guys) that came next &ndash; decided land was basically capital and subsumed it within that category. That upset a few people, who feel land&rsquo;s indivisibility means it really does deserve its own category.&nbsp;When the classicists split land out, national economies were largely agrarian. But we moved on. We built factories and had a revolution; we then built modern capital formation structures - had another revolution - and out the other side came our services and manufacturing-oriented economy.&nbsp;The inconvenient truth for those looking to reintroduce this outdated economic concept is that land is now highly divisible (ie density), and the 4th industrial revolution (the digital one) may make it infinitely so.&nbsp;But this needn&rsquo;t be about economic theorems &ndash; lord knows that economists are hardly on a pedestal at the moment anyway &ndash; there is a far more practical take on all of this.LVT makes no sense to retrofit on the existing urban form. For all the reasons that we use to instil balanced and mixed communities in cities, LVT is a poison pill. Highest bidder taxation means you exacerbate the haves vs have not story in city centres, not the reverse. What happens to the social housing in Kensington &amp; Chelsea, the 3* tourist hotel just off Deansgate, the artist studio in walking distance of Princes Street. How do we drive regeneration in our weakest towns and cities if they are hammered by higher tax rates?Perhaps more importantly, the city centre land market &ndash; for the most part &ndash; already de-couples land ownership from occupation. Land value is determined by a multiple of rents, which means that the use of and benefit from public and neighbourly investment is priced into the costs of being there. Even in residential, London is already majority rented (social + private) and going ever further in that direction. LVT just doesn&rsquo;t make sense.The Land in the Bathtub I stated at the outset that I am not a fan of LVT, but I do support this initiative or at least the thinking behind value capture, although appreciate I am doing a great job of making that hard to believe. Let&rsquo;s realign.In the housing world, there is no one solution that will solve the problem. However, LVT could be a potential game-changer, or more generally the ability to properly capture the uplift in land value as a result of infrastructure investment for NEW development.&nbsp;Local authorities, newly aggressive property investors, should engage in land speculation. Of course, with control of planning and infrastructure investment, it isn&rsquo;t really speculation at all.&nbsp;Cue the new, new towns, urban extensions, &lsquo;garden&rsquo; villages. Whatever you want to call them &ndash; whatever they ultimately look like &ndash; transitioning from agrarian rents to something more as a result of driving new infrastructure into the site is going to create value. It is simply stupid not to capture that along the way.&nbsp;We need more development. We need lower land values to get there. Somewhere along the way, with high demand and scarce supply, strategic land investment became damn good business.&nbsp;It might be time to cut out the middle man.

The Problem with LVT (and Why I support it Anyway)

Buried deep in the Labour Manifesto - on Pg 86 in fact - was the casual mention of a desire to explore a Land Value Tax. Had the Conservatives run a more effective campaign, it might have got a better airing. As it was, well&hellip;

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